Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 142124
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
324 PM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 308 PM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

A weak upper level trough embedded within the northwesterly flow
aloft will dig southeast across NE into MO tonight. Model forecast
sounding look dry within the low-levels. Ahead of the upper through
there may be enough ascent for mid clouds and perhaps occasional
sprinkles. Temperatures along and north of I-70 will be at or
slightly below freezing during the early morning hours, so there is
a chance that some of the sprinkles may freeze on road surfaces but
expect only trace accumulations, so I don`t expect any travel
problems even if sprinkles manage to develop. Overnight lows will
range from the upper 20s along the NE border to the lower to mid 30s
south of I-70

Monday, the upper trough will move east across the mid and lower MS
river valley. Westerly surface winds will gradually veer to the
northwest during the afternoon hours. 850mb temperatures will not
cool much behind the departing upper trough, thus high temperatures
should warm into the lower to mid 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 308 PM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

By Monday night, the mid-level trough will still be in place across
the eastern half of the U.S.  Models show one final embedded
shortwave trough developing over the Northern Plains and diving
southeastward Monday night into Tuesday morning. The better moisture
and lift continue to be focused across Iowa, however model soundings
continue to show enough lift in a saturated layer aloft to possibly
produce some very light precipitation, primarily across extreme
northeast Kansas. Despite saturation extending into the dendritic
zone, soundings show plenty of dry air in the low levels with a well-
pronounced warm nose. These conditions combined with low
temperatures only dropping into the mid 30s should keep
precipitation in the form of light rain or sprinkles. This wave will
be east of the area by sunrise Tuesday morning with dry conditions
for the remainder of the day.

A mid-level ridge will slide into the central U.S. by Thursday,
which will help to push surface high pressure east of the area and
result in southerly winds. A strong pressure gradient is expected on
Thursday with these southerly winds gusting 25-35mph. As a result,
strong warm-air advection will push temperatures well-above the
seasonal normals and potentially within a few degrees of record
values. Have continued to trend up a few degrees with Thursday highs
into the upper 60s to mid 70s. While the pressure gradient will
persist into Friday, winds should shift to the west, likely limiting
temperatures a bit with highs in the mid 60s to near 70 degrees.
There will be elevated fire danger concerns for Thursday and Friday
as a result of the mild conditions, gusty winds, and dry fuels.
Additionally, relative humidity is expected to drop from the 30
percent range on Thursday into the 20 percent range on Friday.

The next chance for precipitation will be Saturday and Saturday
night in which an embedded wave may skim across the region. This
shortwave will bring slightly cooler conditions with highs back down
into the 50s by Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1120 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

VFR conditions are expected through the period.  Mid-level clouds
will move through the area overnight before skies begin to clear
tomorrow morning.


&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...Heller


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