Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 280440
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1140 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 344 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017

As of 20z, mid and upper level ridging continues to position itself
across the central Plains. At the surface, a stationary boundary was
positioned from just south of ICT, east-northeastward into
central MO. Two MCVs responsible for thunderstorms across the area
and western KS this morning continue to weaken as they push south
and eastward. One or two thunderstorms are possible along the
boundary across the far southern counties this afternoon. As we
transition into the evening and overnight hours, the inverted
surface ridge will continue build in across the area. Weak dry air
advection will inundate the area, ushering in 60 degree dew
points. With decreasing clouds expected overnight, patchy fog is
expected virtually area wide. Although, the areas along the KS/NE
border and area that received rainfall last night will stand the
best chances. Comfortable conditions are expected for Friday with
high temperatures in the low to middle 80s and LOW HUMIDITY!

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 344 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017

As we transition into the weekend the mid and upper level ridge
looks to amplify across the central and northern Rockies, placing
the plains within northerly to northwest flow. Very comfortable
temperatures will continue through the weekend with highs in the
lower 80s. Guidance continues to hint at the potential for
convection off the high plains producing an MCV that traverses
western KS Saturday night/Sunday morning. At this point, kept the
CWA dry Saturday night and Sunday. Dry and pleasant conditions are
expected to continue through the beginning next week with high
temperatures in the 80s and low in the 60s. Guidance continues to
show an upper trough traversing the central CONUS by the middle of
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1137 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017

VFR prevails through period. Sct low clouds are developing near
terminals at the current hour. Short term forecast soundings are
consistent with the low level moisture around 4 kft, preventing
ground fog from forming around sunrise. Diurnal cumulus near 4 kft
develops aft 17Z with light northeast winds during the period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Baerg
LONG TERM...Baerg
AVIATION...Prieto



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