Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 100416
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
915 PM MST WED JUL 9 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INTO NEXT WEEK. MOST STORMS WILL OCCUR DURING AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS BUT SOME WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT AT TIMES. SOME STORMS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...KEMX WSR-88D DETECTED SCATTERED 30-45 DBZ ECHOES
MAINLY FROM TUCSON SOUTH-TO-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO SANTA CRUZ/SWRN
COCHISE COUNTY VALID 0410Z. OTHER ISOLATED MOSTLY LESS THAN 40 DBZ
ECHOES WERE ACROSS SRN GRAHAM COUNTY. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED
CLOUD TOPS TO BE GENERALLY WARMING OVER SE AZ AND NRN SONORA MEXICO
DURING THE PAST 1-2 HOURS. THERE APPEARED TO BE A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION FEATURE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DECAYING NRN SONORA
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS JUST SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
ADJACENT SANTA CRUZ COUNTY.

HAVE MAINTAINED ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THIS FORECAST AREA THE
REST OF TONIGHT. 10/00Z NAM DEPICTED LIGHT QPF/S TO OCCUR LATE
TONIGHT ACROSS SANTA CRUZ COUNTY...AS WELL AS ACROSS GREENLEE/GRAHAM
COUNTIES NE OF TUCSON. THE LATTER PRECIP AREA APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED
WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AS PER THE 10/00Z 300 MB ANALYSIS. CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLOUDINESS SHOULD LINGER UNTIL AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK THUR FOLLOWED BY AT LEAST SOME DECREASE OF CLOUD COVER.
10/00Z NAM FAVORED LOCALES EAST OF TUCSON FOR THE BEST OF PRECIP
THUR AFTERNOON. THIS SCENARIO IS SIMILAR TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
THAT DEPICTS SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS EAST AND SOUTH OF TUCSON THUR
AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS TO OCCUR WEST-TO-NORTHWEST
OF TUCSON. HIGH TEMPS THUR WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5 DEGS F OR SO BELOW
NORMAL.

PLEASE REFER TO THE ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR FURTHER DETAIL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 11/06Z.
ISOLATED -TSRA/-SHRA MOSTLY EAST AND SOUTH OF KTUS THE REST OF
TONIGHT. THE BULK OF THESE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END AROUND
OR SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY. EXPECT SCATTERED TSRA/SHRA
MAINLY EAST AND SOUTH OF KTUS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY
EVENING...WITH LESSER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF
KTUS. MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL OCCUR WITH +TSRA...AS WELL AS POTENTIAL
WIND GUSTS MOSTLY AROUND 40 KTS. OTHERWISE...CLOUD DECKS WILL BE
AROUND 8-15K FT AGL. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT TO PROVIDE SCATTERED
TO PERHAPS NUMEROUS MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY REMAINS TO THE
EAST OF ARIZONA THROUGH LATE WEEK. SOUTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL KEEP AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE TO JUSTIFY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
STORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. BY THIS WEEKEND MODELS SHOW
AN INVERTED TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM NORTHEAST MEXICO INTO WEST
TEXAS THAT IS PROGGED TO BE GENERALLY OVER NORTHERN SONORA/CHIHUAHUA
MEXICO AND EXTREME SOUTHERN ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO BY EARLY SUNDAY.
GIVEN THIS SCENARIO THE MODELS DO SHOW AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES FOR LATE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW
I DO SHOW AN INCREASE IN ACTIVITY FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT A DOWN SWING
FOR MONDAY. GIVEN RECENT MODEL DATA...IF YOU TAKE THE MODELS AT FACE
VALUE THE CURRENT POP FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WOULD BE TOO LOW FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND
PERHAPS EVEN EARLY MONDAY. HOWEVER...IT IS TOO EARLY TO GET FANCY
WITH THE POP FORECAST THIS TIME OF YEAR THAT FAR IN ADVANCE...SO
KEPT THE FORECAST `AS IS` FOR NOW BEYOND SATURDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRANCIS
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MOLLERE




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