Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28
000
FXUS65 KTWC 291048
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
345 AM MST Mon May 29 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Adequate moisture will provide a chance of afternoon and
evening thunderstorms mainly near the New Mexico border today into
Thursday. Hotter than usual temperatures today and Tuesday will
moderate closer to seasonal normals Wednesday and Thursday. Expect
dry conditions with another warming trend to prevail next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Surface dewpoints across SW New Mexico this morning
are up 17 to 30 degrees versus 24 hours ago. This moisture will
continue to push west today under easterly low-mid level flow into
Graham, Greenlee and Cochise counties. This will lead to a chance of
mainly mountain thunderstorms east of Tucson. With the low levels
rather dry, the main threat from these storms will be lightning and
strong gusty outflow winds that may produce localized areas of
blowing dust. The outflow winds will also push moisture further west
overnight into Tuesday with the mountain around Tucson getting into
some action Tuesday afternoon/evening.

Negatively tilted upper level trof will move into the state on
Wednesday and be east of the area by Friday. Enough moisture across
the eastern areas for a continued chance for afternoon/evening
activity mainly near the mountains. Dry areawide next weekend.

A few degrees warmer today with similar high temperatures tomorrow.
High temperatures to close out May (Wed) and start June (Thu/Fri)
will be at or slightly below normal. Highs next weekend similar to
today.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid thru 30/12Z.
Main forecast concern in the valid pd will be the development of
ISOLD/SCTD -TSRA/-SHRA E of a KSAD-KDUG line btwn 17Z-23Z today. SFC
wind E-SE 8-18 kts with ocnl gusts to 25 kts. Aviation discussion
not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Increased moisture in combination with a series of
disturbances aloft will bring a chance of afternoon and evening
thunderstorms mainly near the New Mexico border today through
Thursday. Expect gusty and erratic winds due to thunderstorm
outflows. Dry conditions will prevail area wide Friday into Sunday.

&&

.CLIMATE...The forecast high of 101 degrees today at Tucson
International airport would be the warmest Memorial Day since 2000
when it was a hot 108. The hottest high temperature in May for
Tucson was recorded 107 years ago today when the mercury hit a
blistering hot 111 degrees.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.