Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS48 KWNS 240821
SWOD48
SPC AC 240820

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0320 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VALID 271200Z - 011200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...LOWER GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST ON D5/TUE...
CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT AT LEAST MINOR AMPLIFICATION OF
THE N-CNTRL CONUS MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL OCCUR OVER PARTS OF THE
GREAT LAKES/NRN ONTARIO BY D5. THIS WOULD STRENGTHEN POLEWARD
MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN A CONFINED PLUME AHEAD OF AN
EWD-MOVING/SWD-SAGGING COLD FRONT. NEVERTHELESS...INSTABILITY IS
PROGGED TO BE QUITE WEAK WHERE WIND PROFILES SHOULD BE STRONG.
ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL BE COMPARATIVELY MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH NRN
EXTENT...DEEP-LAYER FLOW APPEARS TO LARGELY PARALLEL THIS BOUNDARY.
OVERALL SETUP SEEMS UNLIKELY TO WARRANT SEVERE PROBABILITIES AOA 30
PERCENT.

..GRAMS.. 10/24/2014



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