Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS48 KWNS 310650
SWOD48
SPC AC 310649

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0149 AM CDT SUN JUL 31 2016

VALID 031200Z - 081200Z

...DISCUSSION...
31/00Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
DAY4/WED PERIOD REGARDING THE PROGRESSION OF STRONG SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH INTO THE NRN PLAINS.  GFS MORE RESEMBLES THE LATEST ECMWF
WITH 70KT SPEED MAX OVER NERN MT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INCREASING TO
NEAR 80KT AS IT EJECTS INTO NERN ND BY 04/06Z.  LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD ASSIST ROBUST THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS ERN ND WHICH SHOULD PROPAGATE INTO NWRN MN LATE DAY4.
EVOLUTION OF A POSSIBLE LARGER COMPLEX OF STORMS WILL GREATLY
INFLUENCE DAY5 SEVERE THREAT AS PRIMARY MID-LEVEL SPEED
MAX/SHORT-WAVE TROUGH LIFT INTO WRN ONTARIO.  WHILE SEVERE TSTMS MAY
BE NOTED ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION
THURSDAY...UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE PLACEMENT OF CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS/OUTFLOW WILL NEGATE A SEVERE RISK BEYOND DAY4.

..DARROW.. 07/31/2016



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