Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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444
ACUS11 KWNS 240137
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240136
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-240300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1579
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0836 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB...WRN IA...NERN KS...NWRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 240136Z - 240300Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS...WITH SOME WEAKENING EXPECTED BY LATE
EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH
POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO IN THE SHORT TERM.

DISCUSSION...AT 0130Z...TWO SUPERCELLS WITH A HISTORY OF PRODUCING
BRIEF TORNADOES ARE ONGOING...ONE MOVING SLOWLY EWD ACROSS NERN KS
SOUTHEAST OF CONCORDIA...AND THE OTHER A NEARLY STATIONARY HP
SUPERCELL IN ERN NEB NORTH OF OMAHA. 00Z OAX AND TOP SOUNDINGS SHOW
MODERATE-TO-STRONG BUOYANCY AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR/HELICITY FOR
SUPERCELLS...AND THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE MAINTAINED FOR AT LEAST
THE SHORT TERM...INCLUDING A CONTINUED RISK OF A TORNADO OR TWO.
STORM INTENSITY IS LIKELY PEAKING NOW...WITH DIURNAL
COOLING/STABILIZATION NOW UNDERWAY...THOUGH STORM COVERAGE MAY
INCREASE AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES...WHICH IS ALREADY
UNDERWAY ACROSS ERN NEB IN THE VICINITY OF THE HP SUPERCELL. UPSCALE
GROWTH INTO ONE OR TWO FORWARD-PROPAGATING CLUSTERS IS POSSIBLE AS
COLD POOLS MERGE...WHICH MAY RESULT IN THE MAINTENANCE OF SOME
DAMAGING WIND THREAT INTO LATE EVENING.

THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH...THOUGH
THE COVERAGE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY TOO ISOLATED FOR
WATCH ISSUANCE...AND THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAY REMAIN TOO
MARGINAL/ISOLATED WITH ANY UPSCALE-GROWING CLUSTERS LATER THIS
EVENING.

..DEAN/THOMPSON.. 08/24/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...GID...

LAT...LON   39439766 40079760 41219732 41779670 42229580 42029507
            41339448 39959466 39309486 39109550 39069624 39139668
            39159725 39229759 39439766




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