Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 241559
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241559
ARZ000-MOZ000-241800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0703
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1059 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH MO...FAR NORTH AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 241559Z - 241800Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY
ACCOMPANY STORM CLUSTERS LIKELY EVOLVING EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO
EARLY/MID-AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...STORM CLUSTERS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST KS INTO SOUTHWEST
MO APPEAR TO BE TRANSITIONING TO SURFACE-BASED AS MODIFIED 12Z SGF
RAOB SUGGESTS MODERATE MLCAPE IS NOW PREVALENT WITH MINIMAL MLCIN.
WITH AMPLE INSOLATION SOUTH OF THIS CLUSTER...FURTHER DIABATIC
DESTABILIZATION SHOULD SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE INTENSITY
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THIS MCS MAY STRUGGLE TO GREATLY
ORGANIZE GIVEN MODEST DEEP SHEAR AND VEER-BACK-VEER WIND PROFILES
SAMPLED BY SGF VWP DATA. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR WIND GUSTS
TO BECOME STRONG AND PRODUCE ISOLATED DAMAGE...AS WELL AS A THREAT
FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

..GRAMS/HART.. 05/24/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...

LAT...LON   37509373 37659317 37839274 37899231 37679163 37119069
            36569060 36209084 36169189 36289315 36469402 36729406
            37069399 37509373



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