Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 302020
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302019
VAZ000-302215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1747
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0319 PM CDT FRI SEP 30 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 302019Z - 302215Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS MAY POSE A THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND
PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO OVER SERN VA THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THE
THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO MARGINAL FOR A WW.

DISCUSSION...LATE THIS AFTERNOON A CLUSTER OF STORMS /A FEW OF WHICH
EXHIBIT AT LEAST MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES/ ARE MOVING NWD
THROUGH THE MOIST WARM SECTOR OF SERN VA WHERE 70F DEWPOINTS AND
TEMPERATURES NEAR 80F ARE SUPPORTING AROUND 1000 J/KG MLCAPE.
QUASISTATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AREA SWWD
THROUGH SERN VA. SOME OF THE STORMS MOVING NWD AND INTERACTING THIS
BOUNDARY COULD INTENSIFY AND PRODUCE A BRIEF TORNADO WHERE VEERING
LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND 30-40 KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR EXISTS.
HOWEVER...0-1 KM HODOGRAPHS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY LARGE...WHICH IN
CONJUNCTION WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR
ADVECTION IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER...SHOULD LIMIT UPDRAFT STRENGTH
AND OVERALL SEVERE THREAT.

..DIAL/GLEASON.. 09/30/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RNK...

LAT...LON   37027848 37737667 37637616 37197633 36887705 36687854
            37027848



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