Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 291604
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291603
OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-291800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1435
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1103 AM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CNTRL IND...NWRN/N-CNTRL OH

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 291603Z - 291800Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...FUNNEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO MAY
OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. GENERALLY
MARGINAL SVR RISK WILL PRECLUDE WW ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...RECENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A LOW NEAR THE CNTRL
IL/IND BORDER. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS NEWD FROM THIS LOW TOWARDS
RCR AND THEN EWD ACROSS NW OH TO NEAR CLE. AN ADDITIONAL LOW WAS
ANALYZED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY NEAR FDY. SKIES ALONG THIS BOUNDARY ARE
CURRENTLY MOSTLY CLEAR WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S. MESOANALYSIS INDICATES CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ACROSS THE REGION
HAS ALREADY ERODED WITH THE MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS CURRENTLY
SUPPORTING MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG. CONTINUED HEATING WILL SUPPORT A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN INSTABILITY...ALTHOUGH POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES -- SAMPLED WELL BY MORNING RAOBS -- WILL TEMPER THE OVERALL
DEGREE OF INSTABILITY.

STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH DIURNAL HEATING COMBINED
WITH AMBIENT LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY RESULTING FROM MULTIPLE SURFACE
LOWS AND THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY SUPPORT ISOLATED FUNNEL
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO. HOWEVER...WEAK LOW-LEVEL
FLOW AND GENERALLY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR ARE NOT SUPPORTIVE OF
ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES AND THE OVERALL SVR THREAT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LOW.

..MOSIER/KERR.. 07/29/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...

LAT...LON   39668538 39338635 39388705 39918752 40648753 41098735
            41378696 41498620 41648466 41678348 41598263 41568193
            41528163 41258154 40928160 40688193 40168331 39948420
            39668538




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