Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 292002
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
302 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
TONIGHT PROVIDING MAINLY QUIET WEATHER. CLOUD COVER SHOULD BREAK UP
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS THE HIGH SLIDES OVERHEAD
WITH WEAK SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE. MID CLOUDS START TO PUSH INTO THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT SO WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES LEVEL OFF AS THE
CLOUDS MOVE IN. PLAN ON TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS THEN LEVELING OFF AS THE CLOUDS MOVE IN. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY BRINGING CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. PLAN ON HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE
MID 40S OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS
NORTHEAST IOWA. A VIGOROUS TROUGH TAKES AIM ON THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

THE TROUGH WILL PLUNGE INTO THE REGION FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING BRINGING MUCH COLDER AIR AND SOME
GUSTY WINDS WITH IT. IN FACT...THIS WILL BE SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR
WE HAVE FELT SO FAR THIS FALL. 850 MB STANDARDIZED  ANOMALIES
FALL TO AROUND -2 SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES TO
APPROACH RECORD COOL VALUES FOR OCTOBER 31ST INTO NOVEMBER 1ST.
THE BREEZIEST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING WHEN THE TROPOSPHERIC FOLD WORKS THROUGH THE AREA.
THE PV 1.5 SURFACE DIPS TO 780 MB ACCORDING TO THE NAM. PLAN ON
NORTH WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 35
MPH. THE STRONGEST WINDS COULD BE FELT OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY. IT WILL FEEL RATHER RAW FOR THE TRICK OR
TREATERS FRIDAY EVENING WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER
20S AND LIGHT NORTH WINDS MAKING IT FEEL EVEN COLDER. SATURDAY
MORNING LOWS WILL BE THE CHILLIEST WE HAVE SEEN SO FAR THIS FALL
WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. AT THIS TIME
IT DOESN/T APPEAR THAT WE WILL BREAK ANY RECORDS AT LA CROSSE OR
ROCHESTER. THE LA CROSSE RECORD LOW FOR NOVEMBER 1ST IS 15 AND FOR
ROCHESTER THE RECORD LOW IS 10. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS CALLING
FOR A LOW OF 24 AT LA CROSSE AND A LOW 22 AT ROCHESTER...SO NOT
EXPECTING TO BREAK ANY RECORDS AT THIS TIME. AFTER A COOL DAY ON
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. TEMPERATURES
WILL REBOUND SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN. 850
MB TEMPERATURES GO FROM AROUND -10 C ON FRIDAY TO +3 C BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. A WEAK COLD FRONT AND TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY. 925-850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA AS THE FRONT MOVES IN MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT WITH RAIN SHOWERS SPREADING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
NORTHWEST FLOW LOOKS TO RETURN WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

A PESKY MVFR DECK CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE
TAFS...PARTICULARLY WITH WHEN THE DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL MOVE IN
AND CAUSE IT TO MIX OUT. THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME WEST TO EAST
MOVEMENT OF THE CLOUD DECK...BUT ANY HOLES THAT HAD OPENED UP HAVE
FILLED BACK IN. BASED ON FORECAST PLOTS OF LOW LEVEL RH...HAVE
BACKED UP THE CLEARING TO THIS EVENING WHEN IT APPEARS THAT THE
RIDGE MOVES IN AND DRIES IT UP. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN
TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WITH BASES LOWERING THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING. SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
MORNING...BUT SHOULD NOT CAUSE ANY VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS JUST SOME
LOWER CLOUD BASES TOWARD 4KFT.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...HALBACH



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