Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 250942
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
342 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

RADAR EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWING FINAL SNOW BAND ON THE BACK SIDE OF
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. THIS SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY 6 AM WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. THEN FOR TODAY...A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FOR SOME CLEARING. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOWING STRATUS MAY BE A BIT MORE PESKY EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THINKING THIS
STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO THIN THROUGH THE DAY...BUT MAY BE A BIT
SLOWER THAN ANTICIPATED. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.
OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR HIGHS TODAY IN THE 20S WITH NORTHWEST WINDS
THIS MORNING BECOMING SOUTHWEST BY AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS.

FOR TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WILL BE WATCHING A FAIRLY VIGOROUS
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS...THROUGH IOWA...AND THEN TOWARD THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING BULK OF SNOWFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WEST OF THE AREA...BUT LOOKS LIKE
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN WILL LIKELY GET CLIPPED WITH
SOME LIGHT SNOW DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS
SNOWFALL OF 1 TO PERHAPS 3 INCHES ON THE HIGHEST END IS LIKELY
MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF A ROCHESTER MN TO OELWEIN IA LINE.

MEANWHILE ON WEDNESDAY...WILL BE WATCHING AN ARCTIC FRONT DROPPING
THROUGH MN INTO WESTERN WI BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. NAM SHOWING
PRETTY DECENT AMOUNT OF 1000-700MB FRONTOGENESIS AND SHOULD PROVIDE
ENOUGH FORCING FOR THE LIKELIHOOD OF SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.

LOOK FOR THIS FRONT AND BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS TO SWING THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BULK OF IT EXITING BEFORE
THANKSGIVING DAYBREAK. THINKING THAT WE COULD SEE UPWARDS OF AN INCH
OF SNOW WITH THE SNOW SHOWERS WITH BEST CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATION
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94 WHERE BEST FORCING WILL RESIDE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

DRY/SUNNY/COLD CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN FOR THANKSGIVING DAY AS
ARCTIC HIGH/MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. PLAN
ON HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS.

A WARM FRONT WILL THEN LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT FOR A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RISE THURSDAY NIGHT....THEN TOP OFF IN THE
20S TO LOWER 30S ON FRIDAY. LOOKS LIKE WE WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR
OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY IN THE LOWER 30S FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94...TO
PERHAPS A FEW 40 DEGREE READINGS ACROSS NORTHEAST IA INTO SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN.

LOOK FOR A RETURN TO COLDER CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS ARCTIC
AIR SPILLS BACK INTO THE REGION. PLAN ON HIGHS BOTH DAYS IN THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

THE SNOW HAS EXITED TO THE EAST LATE THIS EVENING...AS THE
RESPONSIBLE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO TREK ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE ASSOCIATED CLOUDS LINGER WELL WEST OF THE
LOW THOUGH...WITH CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGESTING CLEARING OF
THE MVFR DECK AT KRST AROUND 11Z AND KLSE BY 14Z. SHOULD SEE SCT/VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE BULK OF THE DAY TUE.

SEE SOME POTENTIAL FOR A RETURN FOR AN MVFR DECK AFTER 00Z WED /TUE
NIGHT/. RAP AND NAM12 RH FIELDS SUGGEST CURRENT STRATUS DECK OVER ND
WILL SINK SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUE...AND COULD HOLD TOGETHER
LONG ENOUGH TO IMPACT KRST...POSSIBLY KLSE. WILL ALLUDE TO IT FOR
NOW...ADDING IN A SCATTERED LOW CLOUD IN ADDITION TO BKN HIGH CIGS.
DO EXPECT SOME LOWER CIGS TO RETURN ON WED AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION. LIKELY SEE SOME -SN TOO.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION.....RIECK



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