Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 260021

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
721 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday Night)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

At 2 pm, surface analysis had a cold front extending from far
northwest MN through eastern SD...into central NE. Warm air/moisture
advection ahead of this front along with lift from weak/embedded mid-
level shortwave trough was producing scattered thunderstorms over
west central WI. Otherwise, a hot/humid day across the area with
temperatures in the middle 80s to lower 90s and heat indices of 95-
100 degrees.

Looking for storms to fire quickly along the cold front across
northwest MN into eastern SD this afternoon, then move southeast
into the region by 8 pm (from north central WI into southeast
MN/northeast IA)...exiting east/southeast of the forecast area
around 3 or 4 am. CAPE values ahead of the front over our area
remains respectable, but better 0-3km bulk shear lagging behind. As
such, expecting a broken band of storms to roll in per latest CAMS,
but not expecting high-end severe event. However, could still see a
few strong to severe storms mainly from north central WI to
southeast MN, then weakening as they move farther southeast into the
area later this evening/tonight. Damaging winds and torrential
downpours will be the main threat with the storms with large hail
and perhaps an isolated tornado being secondary threats.

Drier air filters into the area Sunday on breezy west winds behind
the front. Look for highs in the middle and upper 80s. Sunday night
looks to be a comfortable night with lows falling into the upper 50s
to the lower 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

High pressure will be the dominant weather feature through Wednesday
for dry and cooler conditions. Look for highs Monday in the upper
60s across northern WI to near 80 across far northeast IA/southwest
WI and in the 70s Tue and Wed.

High pressure slides east of the area Wednesday with a cold front
making passage Thursday/Thursday night time frame for a chance of

Low-end shower/thunder chances continue through Saturday as the
region gets caught under cooler cyclonic flow aloft/steep lapse
rates. Otherwise...cooler than normal temperatures expected with
highs Friday/Saturday mainly in the 70s.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 721 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

A few thunderstorms could impact the TAF sites later this evening
with the potential for brief IFR conditions  and wind gusts of
40-50 kts. Thunderstorm will taper off after midnight with a
return to VFR conditions.


.ARX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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