Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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000
FXUS63 KARX 301033
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
533 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AND WINDY/COLDER CONDITIONS TONIGHT.

WATER VAPOR ANALYSIS SHOWING A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS MN INTO NW IA. SCATTERED ECHOES ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS WAVE PER RADAR MOSAIC WITH AN OCCASIONAL REPORT OF LIGHT RAIN
ACROSS MN. RAP SHOWING BETTER 850-300MB PV-ADVECTION MOVES SOUTH OF
THE AREA ACROSS IA/MO WHILE MAINTAINING WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER
OUR AREA THROUGH THIS MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING FIRST 5KFT
PRETTY DRY ACROSS THE ARX FORECAST AREA...SO EXPECTING JUST SPOTTY
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES. OTHERWISE...UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS...
LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 40S ACROSS
NORTHERN WI...TO THE MIDDLE 50S ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHWEST
WI.

THEN FOR TONIGHT...ARCTIC COLD FRONT BLASTS THROUGH THE REGION.
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR SPILLING INTO THE REGION ON GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 15 TO 20 WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH EXPECTED TO DROP OVERNIGHT
LOWS INTO THE MIDDLE/UPPER 20S. IN ADDITION...DESPITE BEST PV-
ADVECTION FORCING STAYING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...STRONG 925-850MB
FRONTOGENESIS EXPECTED TO GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS MAINLY EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A FEW FLAKES MAY ALSO BE SEEN NORTHEAST OF I-94
AFTER MIDNIGHT...ALTHOUGH THINKING ANY DUSTING POTENTIAL WILL BE
ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST WI/UPPER MICHIGAN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AS CANADIAN HIGHS SETTLES OVERHEAD. CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. HIGHS ON SATURDAY ONLY
EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 40-45 DEGREE RANGE.

MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHT TEMPERATURE MODIFICATION TAKES
PLACE ON SUNDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH WILL HELP TO
PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 45-50 DEGREE RANGE...BUT WINDS WILL PUT A
BITE IN IT MAKING IT FEEL MORE LIKE THE UPPER 30/LOWER 40S.

RAIN CHANCES RETURN MONDAY LASTING INTO INTO TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
AND A COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. LOOK FOR HIGHS MONDAY IN
THE 50S AND IN THE 40S ON TUESDAY.

ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE SEEN WEDNESDAY OF AREAS NORTH OF I-
94 AS YET ANOTHER MID-LEVEL/SURFACE TROUGH DRIVEN BY NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT BRUSHES THE REGION. PLAN ON HIGHS IN THE 40S NORTH OF I-94 AND
IN THE 50-55 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS THE REST OF THE ARX FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 533 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE TROPOSPHERE HAS KEPT CONDITIONS
VFR OVERNIGHT...WHILE CIRRUS AND ALTOSTRATUS HAVE BEEN SPREADING
IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT THE VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
ABOUT MID AFTERNOON...THEN A COLD FRONT OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA
WILL APPROACH THE TAF SITES AND HELP TO LOWER CEILINGS. BOTH LSE
AND RST SHOULD SEE CEILINGS FALL...INTO THE MVFR RANGE...FOR A
TIME FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. THESE CEILINGS
SHOULD RISE TO VFR AROUND MIDNIGHT AS DRIER CANADIAN AIR FLOWS IN
AND CLEARS THE CLOUD OUT. IN ADDITION...AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES
THE TAF SITES LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST AND INCREASE GREATLY THIS EVENING. GUSTS OF 20 TO
30 KT APPEAR LIKELY FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS WHEN PRESSURES SHOULD RISE RAPIDLY.
GUSTS MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED MORE IN THE TAFS IF TRENDS CONTINUE
TO POINT TO THE WINDY SCENARIO.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...AJ



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