888
FXUS61 KBGM 091904
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
304 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible this afternoon
and evening across the Finger Lakes and Southern Tier. A weak
warm front lifts into the region tonight with fog developing
once again in the valleys as well as showers moving into the
Pocono Mountains by morning. More widespread showers and
thunderstorms expected in the afternoon tomorrow with a few
storms becoming strong.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
245 PM Update...

An upper level trough is slowly digging into the region with a
shortwave visible on water vapor imagery moving in this
afternoon. The better lift associated with the shortwave is to
our south but a few showers are developing in central PA and
will move into the western Twin Tiers as well as the Finger
Lakes region this afternoon. Tonight, precipitation chances were
kept higher for NEPA as the 250 mb jet strengthens with NEPA
under the right entrance region so there is broad lift with a
bit of elevated instability. Showers and a few rumbles of
thunder are likely through the night with the activity slowly
shifting north into tomorrow.

Breaks of sun and clouds similar to today along with better mid
level lapse rates near 6C/km under the trough will help good
instability to develop. MLCAPE approaches 1500 J/kg with SBCAPE
up to near 3000 J/kg. Shear is pretty minimal in the low levels
with very little winds below 700 mb but we do have the 250 mb
jet overhead so there is good shear from 600 mb up to the
equilibrium level. There is also very dry air above 500 mb so
storms tomorrow that get deeper convection may be able to tap
into that elevated shear and strengthen with good lift through
the hail growth zone. The main concern with storms will be hail
and precipitation loading leading to microburst and downburst.
Without the low level shear, it will be tough to develop any
strong mesocyclones but there could be weak supercells that
develop with any persistent deep convection.

With the trough axis swinging through Thursday night, a drier
air mass advects in with surface high pressure. Mostly clear
skies likely leads to the formation of valley fog as we
typically see at this time of the year.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
300 PM Forecast...

A weak ridge builds into the region on Friday with mostly dry
conditions expected to hold in the morning. Showers and
thunderstorms start to creep into northeast PA by the afternoon as a
short wave slowly pushes up from the south. NAM and GFS brings
showers further into the Southern Tier region by Friday evening
while the EURO and Canadian show a drier solution. Any
showers/storms that develop come to an end by Friday night. A warm
front moves into the region by Saturday advecting warm and moist air
via southwesterly flow. This will bring additional showers and
thunderstorms by Saturday afternoon. Temperatures will be warm as
highs will climb into the low to upper 80s both days. Dew points in
the mid to to low 70s will result in muggy conditions. Overnight
temperatures Friday and Saturday night will range in the low to
upper 60s. Conditions then dry out Saturday night before shower
chances increase and become a bit more widespread by Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
300 PM Forecast...

A cold front will move through the region on Sunday bringing an
increased chance of showers and thunderstorms. There is uncertainty
on the timing of the front as the GFS is quick to move it through
while the ECMWF is much slower with it. Due to this uncertainty,
shower chances will carry over into Monday given the slower
solutions. Upper level ridge and surface high pressure builds into
the region by Tuesday and Wednesday with drier conditions expected.
Temperatures on Sunday will be warm ahead of the front with
highs in the low to upper 80s. Northwest flow settles in behind
the front, but cold front will be weak and therefore it will
bring little relief. Temperatures will remain in the low to mid
80s. Southwest flow returns as ridge builds in midweek with
temperatures warming into the mid 80s to low 90s.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions expected at SYR, BGM, and AVP. With conditions
tonight similar to last night, ELM, ITH, and potentially RME
could have fog develop again. ELM is high confidence fog will
form but ITH is a bit lower though given all the fog last night,
included a period of MVFR for now but may have to lower to IFR
if the humidity does not mix lower this afternoon. RME has
lower confidence in fog as the better chances of IFR fog are to
the north of the terminal. Its possible the fog sneaks in at
times late tonight into early tomorrow morning with a MVFR tempo
in place for the timing of the best potential. Once the fog
mixes out mid morning, VFR conditons expected at all terminals
through 18Z. Low chance of showers and thunderstorms developing
prior to 18Z that could lead to restrictions late morning but
unlikely to impact terminals until after 18Z.

Outlook...

Thursday afternoon...Restrictions possible with some showers
and thunderstorms around. (High confidence)

Friday...Mainly VFR. (High confidence)

Saturday into Sunday...Isolated to Scattered showers/storms
possible and associated restrictions. (Medium Confidence)

Monday...Weak low pressure moving through, more widespread
showers and thunderstorms possible with associated restrictions.
(low confidence)

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJG
NEAR TERM...AJG
SHORT TERM...ES
LONG TERM...ES
AVIATION...AJG