Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KBGM 250742
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
342 AM EDT Mon Mar 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Clear skies and light winds will bring cold temperatures
early this morning. Dry conditions, along with a moderating
trend in temperatures will continue for this afternoon and
Tuesday, before another system brings a chance for rain showers
for the middle of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
1240 AM Update...

Clear and cold conditions are prevailing, with light winds. High
pressure is overhead, and is allowing for good radiational
cooling conditions; especially where deeper snow cover remains.
Temperatures are falling into the 10s to mid-20s as of midnight,
which is on target.

945 PM Update...
No changes to the forecast this update. Temperatures have been
within a degree of the forecast so far for most of the area so
no adjustments have been needed.

630 PM Update...
Overall little change to the forecast. Decreased clouds to
basically 0 for the overnight and also decreased winds as
surface high pressure will be nearly centered over CNY.
Overnight lows may need to be lowered further but will watch the
rate of fall this evening for the 930 pm update.

330 PM Update...

Lingering lake effect clouds have dissipated this afternoon with
abundant sunshine returning to the region. Northwest flow keeps
temperatures cool for one more day as highs are expected to
climb into the low 30s to low 40s. Overall conditions remain dry
for the region as high pressure remains in control. Clear and
calm conditions are expected to continue into the overnight
period. We could see temperatures falling into the single
digits over Oneida county. Central NY will see temperatures
ranging in low to upper teens, meanwhile northeast PA will see
temperatures falling into the low to mid 20s. NBM temperatures
were too warm for this period, therefore used a blend of NBM and
NBM 10th percentile to cool temperatures.

After a cold start tomorrow, temperatures are expected to warm into
the upper 40s to low 50s as winds shift to the southeast. With a
surface high to our north conditions remain dry over our region with
minimal cloud cover. As the high slides to the east clouds begin to
roll in late Monday night. Temperatures overnight are expected to
fall into the upper 20s to low 30s across the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
340 AM Update:

Tuesday night, a low pressure system will move from the Lake
Superior area into Ontario, Canada. Meanwhile, the associated
warm front will push through our region which will provide
enough lift for scattered rain showers to develop from west to
east. Temperatures will be warm enough for precipitation to be
entirely rain, except for perhaps a few wet snowflakes mixing in
for far northern Oneida County and the highest peaks of the
Catskills. Temperatures will be mild with lows only in the upper
30s to mid 40s.

A relative lull in the rain shower activity should occur
Wednesday morning in a partial dry slot, but by the afternoon,
the associated cold front will push through the region allowing
for a resurgence of rain shower activity. Temperatures will be
above normal with highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s. If some
sunshine manages to break through the clouds ahead of the cold
front, temperatures may rise well into the 60s for much of the
area.

Showers will taper off from west to east Wednesday night as the
cold front clears the area. Showers will linger longer across
areas east of I-81, particularly across the Poconos-Catskills as
the front slows down east of the area and additional moisture
starts to surge up the coast with a possible developing coastal
wave of low pressure across the Mid-Atlantic. Temperatures will
remain mild with lows only in the 40s east of I-81, with mid to
upper 30s west of I-81 (behind the cold front).

The aforementioned surge of moisture along the coast will bring
an additional chance for showers east of I-81 on Thursday,
especially for the Poconos-Catskills. Steadiest rain should
remain east of the area closer to the coast, but this could of
course change as it gets closer. There will likely be a sharp
gradient between areas that see rain to the east and no rain to
the west. Temperatures will be a few degrees above normal with
highs in the mid 40s to lower 50s.

Rain showers east of I-81 finally come to an end by late
Thursday night and gradual clearing is expected as high pressure
approaches the area. Lows are expected to be in the upper 20s to
lower 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
340 AM Update:

The long term period will feature seasonable weather as March
comes to a close. High pressure will largely be in control, but
weak shortwaves moving through associated with a west-
northwesterly upper level flow may bring a few showers over the
weekend (rain showers during the day, rain/snow showers at
night). That being said, none of the days Friday through Sunday
appear to be a washout and in fact, the majority of the time
should remain dry with partly sunny/partly cloudy skies. High
temperatures will generally be in the 40s to lower 50s, with
overnight lows in the upper 20s to mid 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
150 AM Update...

VFR conditions to continue through the entire taf period. Clear
skies the rest of tonight, with the potential for a few high
clouds during the afternoon and evening hours.

Winds are light and variable through the early to mid morning
hours. Then, east to southeast winds at 6 to 15 kts this
afternoon and evening expected.


Outlook...

Late Monday night...Mainly VFR.

Tuesday...MVFR ceilings possible from a marine layer; highest
chances at AVP and BGM.

Tuesday night through Wednesday night...Occasional restrictions
possible in rain showers, especially during the day on
Wednesday.

Thursday & Friday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ES/MJM
NEAR TERM...AJG/ES/MJM
SHORT TERM...BJG
LONG TERM...BJG
AVIATION...MJM/TAC


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.