Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29
000
FXUS61 KLWX 260109
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
909 PM EDT Mon Mar 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Surface ridging will keep fair and seasonable weather
conditions through Tuesday. Showers return to the area Tuesday
night as a weak cold front approaches and eventually crosses the
area Thursday morning. A backdoor front will cross the area
Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High-level cirrus is starting to move over the area. Otherwise,
dry and quiet conditions prevail tonight. Some gusty downslope
winds on the western slopes of the Alleghenies late tonight with
gusts up to 30-35mph possible. Lows drop to the low to mid 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will continue to break down on Tuesday ahead of
the next frontal system expected to impact the area through
mid-week. Clouds will increase Tuesday but remain mostly dry for
the majority of the day with highs in the 50s for most of the
area during the afternoon. Precipitation arrives from the west
late Tuesday night ahead of a slow moving cold front. Overnight
lows will drop down into the low to mid 40s with maybe a few of
the higher elevations reaching the upper 30s.

Precipitation becomes more widespread Wednesday into Thursday as
the front continues to progress further east. Warm, southerly
flow will allow for highs to climb into the upper 50s to even
some low 60s Wednesday afternoon. Overnight lows will fall into
the upper 30s for the mountains to low-mid 40s further east.
Precip continues on Thursday as the front actually begins to
cross the region and bring the heaviest rain during the late
morning to early afternoon hours. Rainfall totals will be highly
dependent on the track of a secondary coastal low moving up
the southeast coastline Wednesday into Thursday. For now, expect
rainfall totals of 0.50-0.75" for the duration of the event with
localized higher amounts possible, especially across portions of
central VA and southern MD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A cold front will extend along the East Coast from New England
southward to Florida on Thursday morning, with upper level troughing
situated to our west over the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys. As a shortwave
disturbance progresses north and eastward, a wave of low pressure
will develop along the frontal boundary in response, before tracking
up the Eastern Seaboard. Models differ with respect to the intensity
and exact track of this low, but there has been a trend further
westward in the incoming 12z guidance. This westward trend would
lead to greater rainfall totals across the area if it continues.
Regardless, locations to the south and east of I-95 should
receive the highest rainfall totals. As mentioned before, spread is
large, but the wettest solutions now show 2-3 inches of
precipitation along and east of I-95. If this solution were to play
out, there could be some issues with flooding.

Rain will depart late Thursday afternoon into Thursday night, with
dry conditions expected by Friday. Conditions may become quite windy
Thursday afternoon through Friday, depending on the strength of the
departing low, but again, spread in model guidance remains high.

Flow aloft will turn zonal in nature by this weekend. Low amplitude
disturbances embedded in zonal flow aloft may bring low-end chances
for showers this weekend, but much of the time should remain dry.
Seasonable temperatures are expected in the long term period, with
highs generally in the upper 50s and lower 60s for most.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions will persist through tonight with easterly winds
5 to 15 knots at times. Rain chances arrive from west to east
starting Tuesday night and persist through Wednesday and even
into portions of Thursday.

The easterly flow will push marine stratocu across the Delmarva
late tonight, reaching MTN, BWI, DCA, and likely IAD by mid
Tuesday morning. These low ceilings may persist through Thursday.
Most CIGs should be MVFR through the day Tuesday, then drop
considerably Tuesday night into Wednesday. Likely to see IFR and
possibly LIFR at most TAF sites, especially the coastal
terminals.

Winds shift out of the NW Thursday morning as the cold front
clears the terminals. IFR conditions and rain appear likely
through much of the day Thursday. Conditions should improve back
to VFR Thursday night and remain VFR on Friday. Winds will
become gusty out of the northwest during the day Thursday, and
remain gusty through Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
SCAs remain in effect through tonight with some gusts getting to
20 knots at times before dissipating Tuesday morning. Gusts
likely stay below SCA criteria through Wednesday.

A front will be pushing through Thursday while low pressure develops
offshore. N to NW winds will continually increase, and advisories
appear likely Thursday into Friday. At least SCA-level northwesterly
winds are expected on Thursday and Friday, with Gales possible.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Water levels have snapped back to elevated levels this evening,
and should continue to slowly rise over the next few days due to
persistent onshore flow. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is
expected over the next few days. Coastal Flood Advisories and
Warnings are in effect to account for high tide impacts.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 AM EDT Tuesday for DCZ001.
     Coastal Flood Watch from 1 AM EDT Tuesday through Wednesday
     afternoon for DCZ001.
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 AM EDT Tuesday for MDZ017.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM EDT Wednesday for MDZ011-016-
     508.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 AM EDT Tuesday for MDZ014.
     Coastal Flood Warning from 3 AM Tuesday to noon EDT Wednesday
     for MDZ014.
     Coastal Flood Warning from 1 AM Tuesday to 6 AM EDT Wednesday
     for MDZ017.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM EDT Wednesday for MDZ018.
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM EDT Wednesday for VAZ053-055-
     057-527.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM EDT Wednesday for VAZ054.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ534-537-543.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ADM
NEAR TERM...KRR
SHORT TERM...ADM
LONG TERM...KJP
AVIATION...KRR/ADM/KJP
MARINE...ADM/KJP
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...KRR


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.