996
FXUS64 KLZK 181649
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1149 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday Night)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Scattered SHRA/TSRA continue off an on early this Sat morning across
central to NERN sections of the CWA under the upper shortwave axis
moving slowly east over AR. Some isolated convection was also noted
further SW...also under this axis. Expect this activity to continue
into the morning hrs...gradually shifting east by after sunrise.
While the threat for SVR Wx remains low...an isolated
strong...briefly SVR storm could be seen. Locally heavy rainfall
will also be possible.

After the morning convection and patchy fog...expect conditions to
become dry for most areas by late this morning as the upper
shortwave axis moves east. Expect a mostly clear sky...and warm
conditions to develop. Highs over the weekend will warm into the
upper 70s to  mid 80s today...and a few deg warmer for Sun in the
80s to around 90. Lows tonight will be in the upper 50s to mid
60s...and a few deg warmer for Sun night in the 60s to around 70.
Expect the dry forecast to continue into the early part of the long
term period.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

An unsettled upper flow pattern wl be in place acrs the CONUS. H500
troughing wl be digging Swrd into the Pac-N/W. Mon into Tues, N/Wrn
US troughing wl bcm confluent w/ a detached Pacific upper
low/subtropical jet, resulting in broad troughing flow over the Wrn
half of the CONUS, and a pronounced region of mean S/Wrly
and diffluent flow over the Cntrl Plains.

Seasonably warm temperatures are expected thru the first half of the
new work week, as strong Srly sfc flow wl be in place, w/ daily hi
temps in the low 90s expected at most locations. Chances for rain
and storms are set to return to the region on Tues, but more lkly
towards later Tues night, as deepening sfc cyclonic flow over the
Cntrl Plains maneuvers N/Ewrd, and an asctd trailing cdfrnt sweeps
S/Ewrd towards the FA. Covg of precip should incrs fm N/Wrn AR
towards Cntrl and Srn AR late Tues night and into Wed. Severe
potential remains conditional, w/ greater vertical shear displaced
to the north, and current timing of greater convective covg trending
towards the overnight PD of Tues/Wed. Some intermittent strong to
briefly severe storms cannot be ruled out attm, but greater covg and
intensity remains in question.

Wed and thru the remainder of the PD, unsettled weather looks to
persist, as the aforementioned cdfrnt is currently progged to stall
out over the Cntrl third to Srn portion of the state, and serve as
the focal point for daily covg of showers/storms. Slightly cooler
daily high temps should resume under greater covg of rain/clouds
thru the latter half of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1146 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

For the 18Z TAFs...

Early morning fog had dissipated across northern TAF sites leaving
VFR conditions for all area TAF sites. VFR conditions are expected
to continue under mostly clear skies through tonight. Winds will
remain light and variable or northerly through Sunday afternoon.
Under mostly clear skies and light winds overnight, expect at
least MVFR fog to develop across northern and central Arkansas.
Fog should remain shallow and be quick to dissipate in the
morning. After 18Z winds will likely become established out of the
south as high pressure slides east of Arkansas.

Cavanaugh

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     83  64  87  67 /  20   0   0   0
Camden AR         86  65  90  67 /  10   0   0   0
Harrison AR       81  61  86  66 /  10   0   0   0
Hot Springs AR    86  64  89  67 /  10   0   0   0
Little Rock   AR  86  67  89  69 /  20   0   0   0
Monticello AR     85  67  89  69 /  30   0   0   0
Mount Ida AR      86  63  89  67 /  10   0   0   0
Mountain Home AR  83  61  87  66 /  10   0   0   0
Newport AR        83  66  87  69 /  30   0   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     85  66  89  69 /  30   0   0   0
Russellville AR   85  64  89  68 /  10   0   0   0
Searcy AR         83  64  87  66 /  30   0   0   0
Stuttgart AR      83  67  87  69 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...66
LONG TERM....72
AVIATION...66