384
FXUS64 KLZK 071807
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
107 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 235 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Convection this morning moving across NRN/NWRN sections will
continue to move east through the early morning hrs...gradually
weakening over time. Some strong to SVR storms will remain possible
this morning...with damaging winds the primary threat expected. Some
large hail and a brief tornado could also be seen...along with
locally heavy rainfall. Most activity will have either dissipated or
moved east of the area by mid morning...with maybe some lingering
isolated activity across SERN portions into the early afternoon hrs.

A weak upper wave looks to pass over the area Tue night into early
Wed morning...with some small chances for convection across
central/SERN sections as a result. Substantial SW flow aloft will
continue throughout the day on Wed...with mainly dry conditions
expected into the early afternoon hrs. This will allow temps to warm
into the upper 70s to upper 80s...and dewpts in the 60s and 70s.

The aforementioned warm temps/high dewpts will result in impressive
ML CAPE over 3k J/kg by mid afternoon. Initially...a capping
inversion looks to hold for most of the afternoon hrs on Wed...and
with no significant upper disturbance moving overhead...only an
isolated TSRA or two looks to develop by mid afternoon. Better
forcing will come by late afternoon as a pre-frontal SFC trough
drops SE into AR...which looks to be the first focus for convection
on Wed afternoon. Additional convection looks to fire further NW
with the main SFC cold front later in the evening hrs...with the
front then pushing SE into the CWA by the end of the short term
period.

Given this timing...there may be lowering instability by the time
the main forcing moves into the area to trigger the main lines of
convection. Even so...think severe weather looks likely given the
ample deep layer SHR...and with decent low level SRH. CAPE profiles
look impressive...with forecast LI in a general -6 to -12 range.
Given this...think all severe weather threats will be
possible...especially with the convection firing along the pre-
front trough. Damaging winds...large hail...and a few tornadoes will
all be possible. Further NW with the frontal convection...expect the
threat to transition to mainly a damaging wind threat...along with
large hail also possible. While some locally heavy rainfall may lead
to isolated flash flooding...don`t think a widespread heavy rainfall
event is expected at this time.

Expect the threat for strong to SVR storms to slowing drop SE by the
morning hrs on Thu in the early part of the long term.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 235 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Calmer conditions will make up much of the long term period,
especially when compared to short term. To begin, a surface cold
front should be located invof Cntrl/Srn AR, slowly working its way
Swrd through the daytime. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms are
anticipated to redevelop near and to the S of the boundary beneath
a passing upper level disturbance. Therefore rain chances will
remain in the forecast on Thursday afternoon and evening across the
Srn half of the state. Rain will taper off by Thursday night as the
upper level impulse moves away from the region. At this time,
organized severe weather appears low.

On Friday, NW upper flow will replace zonal flow over the nations
mid-section. This will allow surface high pressure to move towards
the state from the Plains. Drier and cooler air will advect into the
region with the approach of high pressure.

Going through the weekend, modest upper level ridging will move into
the Plains/MS Valley. This should bring nice, drier and cooler,
weather to AR as high pressure settles in overhead.

By Monday, the upper ridge axis and surface high will begin to
depart the region to the E. Surface winds will switch back to the S
and low end PoPs return by Monday as a new upper trough/perhaps
closed low moves into the Four Corners region.

The warmest day during the period should be Thursday, with highs
topping out in the mid 70s to mid 80s. Not to surprising the coolest
day is expected to be Friday, with high temperatures mainly in the
70s. A slow warming trend will ensue through the weekend into
Monday. Low temperatures will be refreshing, with readings mainly
in the 50s most mornings, especially Friday morning and beyond.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 104 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

At this time, it appears that chances for TSRA across sites will
occur after this TAF period ends. Expect MVFR ceilings across the
southern half of the forecast area after 12z.

55

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     86  67  86  60 /  40  10  70  80
Camden AR         87  70  89  66 /  10  10  20  70
Harrison AR       83  60  81  53 /  10   0  70  40
Hot Springs AR    86  66  86  62 /  20  20  30  70
Little Rock   AR  87  70  87  65 /  20  30  40  80
Monticello AR     87  73  90  69 /  20  10  10  70
Mount Ida AR      87  65  85  60 /  30  20  40  70
Mountain Home AR  84  60  84  55 /  10   0  70  50
Newport AR        85  67  86  62 /  40  20  60  80
Pine Bluff AR     86  71  88  67 /  20  20  20  80
Russellville AR   87  65  84  58 /  30  10  40  60
Searcy AR         85  67  86  62 /  30  20  50  80
Stuttgart AR      85  71  87  67 /  20  30  40  90

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...55