963
FXUS64 KLZK 190857
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
357 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday Night)
Issued at 337 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Ridging will gradually take place from the southern Plains into
Arkansas the next couple of days. This will result in above to
well above average temperatures, and afternoon readings reaching
at least 90 degrees today/Monday in central/southern sections
of the state.

At the surface, the period will begin with high pressure over
the region this morning. This is creating somewhat stagnant
conditions, and patchy fog will likely form as dawn approaches.
Any fog will be short-lived, with a mix of sun and clouds this
afternoon.

While the weather will be quiet here, severe weather appears
likely this afternoon/evening in the central Plains. Storms
will build to the east tonight, and may reach northwest Arkansas
toward morning Monday before falling apart.

On Monday, high pressure will shift to the east a bit. Clockwise
flow around the high will bring a little more wind than today
from the south, and temperatures will be slightly warmer. Dry
conditions will continue.

As the period ends, a new storm system will develop and begin
intensifying in western Kansas Monday night. The system will head
toward the upper Midwest, and will drag a cold front this way.
For more on the front, onward to the long term.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 337 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Warm and dry conditions will start off the long term period as upper
level ridging transitions to SW flow aloft on Tue. A shortwave will
be lifting NE from the central Plains into the NRN MS River Valley
region by Tue night into Wed morning. SFC low pressure will develop
just ahead of this shortwave...also lifting NE into the NRN MS River
Valley. A trailing cold front will push SE towards AR Tue
night...with some increased potential for convection along/ahead of
this front across the NWRN third/half of the state Tue night into
Wed morning.

The front will wash out over NWRN sections of the state by
Wed...with SW flow aloft continuing over the region. Weak upper
waves will move over the state into early Thu...with some continued
chances for convection remaining in the forecast. A bit more potent
upper wave will lift NE over the state by late Thu night into
Fri...with another enhanced wave of convection possible for that
time frame. The pattern looks to remain unsettled into the weekend
as upper flow will continue from the SW over AR...and with weak
upper waves passing overhead.

An initial threat for strong/SVR storms may come late Tue night
across NRN/NWRN sections ahead of the SFC front. However...most
dynamics will remain well north of AR...so the threat for organized
and widespread SVR storms looks limited. Even so...there looks to be
ample instability and some SHR to generate a few strong to SVR
storms. The threat for more strong/SVR storms looks to continue as
isolated going into the rest of the period...though there could be
an enhanced potential for Thu as the more potent upper wave passes
overhead. Even so...the threat for seeing any organized SVR TSRA
remains uncertain at this time for much of the long term period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1236 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Conditions will be mostly VFR tonight/Sunday. There will be
some patchy low clouds/fog toward dawn Sunday, and this will
create brief MVFR/IFR conditions in places. Once the fog
lifts, scattered cumulus between 4000 and 6000 feet is expected
Sunday afternoon. A light and variable wind will be noted
overnight, with an east to southeast wind at 5 to 10 knots on
Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     88  66  89  68 /   0   0   0   0
Camden AR         90  65  91  68 /   0   0   0   0
Harrison AR       87  65  87  68 /   0  10  10   0
Hot Springs AR    90  66  91  69 /   0   0   0   0
Little Rock   AR  90  69  92  71 /   0   0   0   0
Monticello AR     90  68  92  71 /   0   0   0   0
Mount Ida AR      90  65  90  68 /   0   0   0   0
Mountain Home AR  88  65  87  68 /   0   0  10   0
Newport AR        88  66  89  69 /   0   0   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     89  67  91  70 /   0   0   0   0
Russellville AR   90  66  91  69 /   0   0   0   0
Searcy AR         88  64  89  68 /   0   0   0   0
Stuttgart AR      88  68  89  71 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...46
LONG TERM....62
AVIATION...46