Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 291131 CCA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
530 AM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CIGS AND VIZ NEXT 24 HRS...WITH SOME LOW CLOUDS SNEAKING
ACROSS THE TX BORDER INTO NM NEAR CVS AND CVN UNTIL THESE BURN
OFF BY 17Z THIS MORNING. AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE EAST SLOPES
AND EASTERN PLAINS WILL REMAIN ISOLD WITH CIGS AOA BKN/OVC080
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS GENERALLY 20 KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE
DAY AND INTO THE EVENING DECREASING FROM MIDNIGHT ONWARD.

SHY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...341 AM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
OTHER THAN A FEW STRAY SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THIRD OF
NEW MEXICO AND AN EVEN LOWER CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO ACROSS
FAR SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO TODAY AND SATURDAY...IT
LOOKS LIKE A DRY PERIOD UNTIL SOMETIME BETWEEN TUESDAY AND THURSDAY
OF NEXT WEEK. FORECAST MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT AT ODDS WITH THE FIRST
INTRUSIONS OF MOISTURE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE SOME
PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE FORECAST AREA. MOST AREAS TO EXPERIENCE
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS FROM SATURDAY...IF NOT
TODAY...THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME WINDS TO
REACH TO THE EDGE OF THE BREEZY CRITERIA MAINLY SUNDAY AND PERHAPS
WEDNESDAY IN NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. OVERALL A
PRETTY GOOD LOOKING HOLIDAY WEEKEND WEATHERWISE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
GRIDS LOOKED WELL SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST FCST MODEL RUNS WITH NOT
MANY CHANGES TO POPS...SKY AND WEATHER GRIDS. THE ONLY MAJOR CHANGES
TO THE GRIDS INCLUDED SIGNIFICANT WARMING OF AFTN HIGH TEMPS FOR
SUN ACROSS ROUGHLY THE EASTERN THREE QUARTERS OF THE STATE. AFTN
TEMPS TO BE SLIGHTLY TO MODERATELY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS...ESPECIALLY
FROM SAT THROUGH AT LEAST WED. ALSO LOOKING AT MARGINALLY BREEZY
CONDITIONS MAINLY SUN AND AGAIN WED ACROSS NE TO E CENTRAL NM. STILL
HAVE A FEW SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM HANGERS ON MOSTLY NE THIRD
TODAY AND SAT...THEN DRY TIL SOMETIME BETWEEN TUE AND THU
DEPENDING ON YOUR FCST MODEL OF CHOICE. ECMWF BRINGS IN ENOUGH
MOISTURE INTO E HALF OF NM TUE TO SPEW OUT A LITTLE QPF ACROSS E
NM...WHEREAS GFS IS STINGIER...WAITING TIL THU AND FAVORING THE
WEST. NOTICED THAT EARLIER SHIFT INTRODUCE VERY LOW...BARELY
MENTIONABLE...POPS ACROSS THE SANGRES...SACS AND NORTHERN GILA
HIGH COUNTRY...NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE OR MAGNITUDE TO MESS WITH AT
THIS TIME. SEEING A TREND SINCE WED NIGHT OF THE MODELS PUSHING
THE SLOWLY REDEVELOPING MONSOONAL PLUME AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP
FARTHER WEST...MORE IN AZ THAN NM...FOR FRI AND ESPECIALLY NEXT
WEEKEND AS DRIVEN BY MORE STRONGLY WESTWARD RIDGING UPPER HIGH AND
LESS AMPLITUDE OF THE WEST COAST TROUGH.

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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER...NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
FOLLOWING WORK WEEK. LOW HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

MODELS...IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE FOLLOWING WORK
WEEK...AND INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AND TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC WORKING AGAINST
EASTBOUND SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE DAKOTAS TO THE HEART
OF TEXAS AND SOUTHWARD TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE PROVIDING
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS NEW MEXICO. RIDGE WILL HANG TOUGH AS NEXT AND
MORE SUBSTANTIAL WAVE OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC MOVES ASHORE IN THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND BEGINS SLOW DIG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. TROUGH BASE WILL SLIDE THROUGH
THE FOUR CORNERS EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE A SLOW BUT STEADY EJECTION INTO
THE MIDWESTERN U.S. BY MONDAY NIGHT. RIDGE REBUILDS OVER THE
SOUTHERN U.S. THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH RIDGE CORE OVER THE SOUTHWEST
U.S. SHIFTING GRADUALLY TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH MIDWEEK. CORE WILL
MAKE SUBTLE SHIFT WESTWARD HEADING INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

FOR TODAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS WEAK COOL PUSH INTO NORTHEAST
NEW MEXICO WORKS ITS WAY SOUTHWARD TO THE TEXAS BIG BEND COUNTRY.
REMAINDER OF THE STATE WILL SEE A FEW DEGREES WARMING OVER YESTERDAY
WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ALL DAY. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES GENERALLY IN
THE 20S AND UPPER TEENS PCT...WITH GOOD VENTILATION OVER THE
NORTH...AND SOMEWHAT MORE MARGINAL VENTILATION CONDITIONS OVER THE
SOUTH. GENERALLY GOOD HUMIDITY RECOVERIES...BETTER IN THE EAST AND
NORTH. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE MOSTLY OVER THE NORTHERN AND
NORTHEAST HIGH COUNTRY...WITH A STORM OR TWO POSSIBLE SOUTH AND EAST
OF A CLOVIS TO ROSWELL LINE THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR SATURDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW BACKING TO ZONAL ALOFT BUT REMAINING
AT MODEST SPEEDS...AS DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER NEW MEXICO.
ANOTHER FEW DEGREES OF WARMING WILL BRING MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES 3 TO
8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE EAST...AND VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL IN THE
WEST FOR LATE AUGUST. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE MOSTLY
ACROSS THE EAST...WITH BEST CHANCES OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE
AND ADJACENT NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS...AND SOMEWHAT REDUCED CHANCES
FURTHER SOUTH. CENTRAL AND WEST WILL STAY DRY. A FEW PCT LOWER IN
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WITH TEENS AND 20S REMAINING COMMON AS LOW LEVEL
WINDS INCREASE A FEW MPH IN THE AFTERNOON...AND PICK UP A SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH DIRECTIONAL COMPONENT. VENTILATION IMPROVES BROADLY...WITH
EXCELLENT CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTH AND VERY GOOD CONDITIONS OVER
THE SOUTH. GENERALLY GOOD HUMIDITY RECOVERIES...A FEW SPOTS CENTRAL
AND WEST HAVING TROUBLE GETTING OUT OF FAIR TERRITORY...WITH BEST
RECOVERIES OVER THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST.

FOR SUNDAY...TROUGH AXIS ALOFT CLIPPING NORTHERN NEW MEXICO EN ROUTE
TO THE MIDWEST...AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS RAPIDLY OVER NORTHWEST
KANSAS. TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE EAST
COMBINED WITH HUMIDITIES DROPPING BACK INTO THE TEENS AND LOW 20S
PCT WILL PRODUCE SOME DRY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 40 ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT FUELS
IN GOOD ENOUGH SHAPE TO PRECLUDE ANY RED FLAGS FOR NOW. NO
VENTILATION ISSUES AS HUMIDITY RECOVERIES RUN FAIR TO GOOD SUNDAY
NIGHT...BEST IN THE EAST..AND DRIEST CENTRAL AND SOUTH.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...STEADY TEMPERATURE TRENDS WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER....AS TROUGH ALOFT OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. GRADUALLY LIFTS OUT...AND RIDGE CORE OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO EXPANDS NORTHWARD ACROSS NEW MEXICO THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. RIDGE BUILD WILL FORESTALL MUCH ADVANCE OF DEVELOPING
WEST COAST TROUGH LYING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE OFFSHORE
WATERS OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE CORE SHIFTS
EASTWARD TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY. SURFACE WINDS
WILL RETAIN SOUTHERLY COMPONENT...WITH SOME SOUTHERLY AFTERNOON
BREEZINESS WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS FROM EASTERN COLORADO
TO ROUGHLY SANTA ROSA. SOUTHERLY TUG ON MOIST AIR IN MEXICO WILL
BOOST MINIMUM HUMIDITIES BACK UP INTO THE 20S AND 30S PCT BY
WEDNESDAY WITH VENTILATION REMAINING GENERALLY IN THE GOOD TO
EXCELLENT RANGE ALL THREE DAYS.

SHY

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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