Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
FXUS65 KABQ 291132 AAA
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
532 AM MDT THU SEP 29 2016
12Z TAF CYCLE
-SHRA and a few -TSRA have moved into western NM early this AM
and are quickly moving north. These showers will likely continue
thru mid morning, then there may be a short lull before the
afternoon round of thunderstorms develop. More widespread coverage
of storms is expected today compared to yesterday. Both KFMN and
KGUP have high chances of being impacted. Brief MVFR cigs will be
possible as well as gusty outflow winds. Confidence remains low
regarding how far east the convection will make it. Backed off on
timing of VCSH at KABQ and KAEG, but latest HRRR suggests it may
be even later, if at all.
.PREV DISCUSSION...310 AM MDT THU SEP 29 2016...
Ridge of high pressure is just east of NM while a weak short wave
trough has lifted northeast into the Great Basin. A weak low off
the coast of Baja CA is what`s left of tropical depression Rosyln.
It will lift northeast and dissolve within the southwest flow
aloft. Today and Friday will be the most active days of the
forecast period. Westerly flow aloft will bring drier into the
state for the weekend and the start of the Balloon Fiesta. A
closed low and deep trough will bring increasing winds and cooler
temperatures for the first half of next week.
A few light showers continue to the west of the continental divide
early this morning. They will continue to develop this morning and
some thunderstorms will join in this afternoon and evening. Bulk
of today`s activity will be over the western higher terrain. As a
potent storm system moves toward the Pacific Northwest Friday,
the moisture plume will move east, with central and northeast
areas receiving some precipitation Friday and Friday night.
A weak high pressure ridge will set up over NM this weekend. A few
lingering showers will continue over the western and central
mountains Saturday, but Sunday should be rain free across all of
northern and central NM.
The deep low will move into northern CA Sunday night, turn east
across the Great Basin Monday then rapidly lift northeast Tuesday.
The trough axis will cross NM Tuesday, delivering gusty winds and
much cooler temperatures. Showers are possible ahead of the trough
Sunday night into Monday night. This includes the potential for
some strong thunderstorms near the TX border late Monday as the
surface cold front associated with the upper trough arrives.
Tuesday will be dry, but brisk and cool.
Wednesday and Thursday will be mostly dry with less wind and some
increase in temperatures. A weak secondary short wave trough may
drop southeast into NM Wednesday if the GFS is right. But this
would only produce some rain showers over the northern mountains
Wednesday, and snow showers Wednesday night. CHJ
Still looking for another uptick in precipitation across western NM
today, generally along and west of the ContDvd. Dewpoints have
already increased into the 50s, which bodes well for wetting rains,
as opposed to previous days with dewpoints in the 30s and low 40s.
Local WRF model shows some precip making it into the Rio Grande
Valley this evening, but do not think it would be much more than
sprinkles if it does so. Otherwise, batch of high clouds
overspreading the area early this morning should break up this
afternoon, but low/mid level cloud deck will persist across the
west. High temperatures will generally be a bit cooler today, but
near normal. Excellent relative humidity recoveries are expected
tonight across the west, with good recoveries elsewhere.
The plume of moisture across the west today will gradually shift
east on Friday. High terrain areas will have the best chance of
precip, and some wetting rains are possible.
The drying trend will begin on Saturday across the Land of
Enchantment. The NAM is less robust drying it out on Saturday, and
actually develops some light qpf south of I-40 Sat aftn. Not
totally sold on this scenario and may be more virga than anything
else. All other operational models remain drier. The weak ridging
over the state on Saturday should shift east on Sunday allowing for
even drier air to move in and completely squash precip chances.
All eyes are then on the next Pacific storm system early next week
diving into the Great Basin Sunday, then shifting eastward across
the central Rockies Monday and Tuesday. Looks like the main concern
will be an increase in wind on Monday areawide, with breezy
conditions continuing on Tuesday across the east following a cold
frontal passage. Critical fire weather conditions will be possible
on Monday if humidities can drop low enough, but current forecast
has them just above critical criteria. Otherwise, should see a 7 to
10 degree temperature drop going from Monday to Tuesday, which will
result in below normal temps Tuesday. Dewpoints will lower
significantly following the frontal passage, but the question
remains if there will be precip along the front Monday aftn and
night. ECMWF has better moisture in place before the front arrives,
thus does break out some modest precipitation along the front. The
GFS holds off on precip until the front reaches eastern NM where the
best moisture resides.
Generally good or better vent rates are in store today, though
spotty areas of poor ventilation are still possible on Friday across
the north and west. Generally improving vent rates thereafter as
winds increase. 34