Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 021224 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
724 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 721 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 505 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

JUST A QUICK UPDATE FOR THE ONE WEAK THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPED
OVER FAULK CO AND IS MOVING SOUTHEAST. THERE IS A WEAK MID LEVEL
TROF MOVING THROUGH WITH A FEW HUNDRED J/KG MUCAPE...BUT AS CAPE
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND SHIFT SOUTH...NOT
EXPECTING THIS STORM WILL DO MUCH MORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A COLD FRONT IS HEADED DOWN OUT OF NORTH DAKOTA THIS AM AHEAD OF THE
NEXT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.  THIS BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE CONDITIONS INTO EARLY TUESDAY. WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL
DROP 850MB READINGS DOWN TO +15C TO +20C. EARLY TUESDAY THE PATTERN
SHIFTS AWAY FROM NORTHWEST FLOW AS A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW MOVES OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE DAKOTAS.
WARM ADVECTION ALOFT WILL INITIALLY GENERATE SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION...HOWEVER AFTERNOON PROFILES WEST RIVER ARE ALSO UNSTABLE
SO ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED UNDER THIS REGIME. 850MB
TEMPERATURES CHANGE LITTLE TUESDAY...SO HIGHS WILL BE A TAD LOWER
BASED ON MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS PROPAGATES EASTWARD OVER
THIS REGION WHILE BEING DAMPENED BY SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH/OVER THE RIDGE. BY NEXT WEEKEND...THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN
OVER THIS CWA ACTUALLY LOOKS TO TAKE ON A TEMPORARY WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY TRAJECTORY...BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BACK
UP ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...PLACING THIS CWA BACK INTO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. LETTING THE SUPERBLEND HORSE RUN THIS MORNING...SO MUCH
OF THE EXTENDED HAS POPS MENTION...ALTHOUGH LIKELY THERE WILL BE
LOTS OF BREAKS IN RAIN CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS REMAIN RELATIVELY COOL THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS DRAWING AIR OFF OF A COOLISH/DRY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...RETURN FLOW LOW LEVEL PRESSURE PATTERN
IS IN FULL SWING DRAWING WARMER...MOISTURE LADEN AIR INTO THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 721 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

WINDS ARE SWITCHING AROUND TO THE NORTH AND BECOMING BREEZY BEHIND
A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE CWA THIS MORNING. LOOK FOR GOOD
VFR ON BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS INTO EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE THE
GUSTINESS SUBSIDES.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN


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