Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 301939
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
239 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

NORTHWEST WINDS OUT OF A HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA
HAS SHIELDED MOST OF THE CWA FROM PRECIPITATION...WITH RAIN
EXTENDING ABOUT AS FAR NORTH AS INTERSTATE 90...ALTHOUGH SOME OF
THIS MAY BE VIRGA THANKS TO 20 DEGREE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS. MODELS
SHOW BAND OF RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE ALONG AND JUST SOUTH
OF THE CWA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES MUCH
MORE COMPLICATED FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM...BUT FOR THE MOST
PART EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS. THE ONE CAVEAT...A NORTHWEST FLOW WAVE
MAY ACTUALLY  BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY. GUIDANCE
CONTINUITY IS FAIRLY LOW...WITH THE ECMWF/NAM SUPPORTING ENOUGH COOL
MID LEVEL AIR FOR SOME SHALLOW CONVECTION RESULTING IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE WAVE OVER MINNESOTA. THE CANADIAN
MODEL IS SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN BUT SEEMS TO BE SIDING CLOSER TO THE
GFS WITH DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS.

AS FOR HIGHS...THE PROGRESSION OF 850MB TEMPERATURES AND PROFILES
SUPPORTING DEEPER MIXING THANKS TO FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL FLOW SUGGESTS
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. WE MAY SEE A FEW POCKETS OF TEMPERATURES
INTO THE MID 30S SUNDAY MORNING...BUT WINDS SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE
CWA MIXED. MONDAY MORNING WILL SEE MORE FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS...BUT WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE FOR SUNDAY ONLY A FEW FAVORED
LOCATIONS WILL SEE READINGS FALL TO NEAR FREEZING.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

THE 500MB RIDGE WILL BE SET UP FROM THE 4 CORNERS REGION UP THROUGH
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...AND FINALLY PROGRESS E
OVER THE PLAINS STATES TO WRAP UP THE WORK WEEK. THE HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE WILL BE SQUEEZED TO THE FAR E DAKOTAS AND MN SATURDAY...AS THE
NEXT 500MB LOW /JUST OFF THE S AK COAST/ SINKS OFF THE CA COAST
THURSDAY AND THE DESERT SW.

OTHERWISE...THE 12Z TUESDAY SFC WX MAP WILL LIKELY SHOW LOW PRESSURE
OVER ENTRY...WITH A COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS S CENTRAL CANADA. THE
TAIL END OF THE COLD FRONT WILL SINK ACROSS THE ABR AREA LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON-EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. PRECIP LOOKS TO STAY WELL
TO OUR E ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES STATES. THE MAIN CHANGE WILL BE
COOLER AIR SINKING IN /AFTER A DAY OF 850MB TEMPS RISING INTO THE
LOW TEENS C/. THE 12Z RUN OF THE GFS EVEN BRINGS SOME -0.5C 850MB
TEMPS TO THE FAR NE CORNER OF THE CWA BY 18Z WEDNESDAY. THE COOL
CANADIAN HIGH WILL BE OVERHEAD THURSDAY MORNING. AS FOR PRECIP
THROUGH THE PERIOD...THERE COULD HAVE SOME SHOWERS TO OUR W FRIDAY
AND POSSIBLY OVERHEAD NEXT SATURDAY...BUT OTHERWISE IT LOOKS TO BE A
DRY FCST. THIS WILL BE WHILE THE SFC HIGH SINKS TO THE S AND MID MS
VALLEY...AND LOW PRESSURE NEARS FROM CO.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

VFR CEILINGS AND VIS WILL REMAIN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MAIN
CONCERN AVIATION WISE WILL BE GUSTY E-NE WINDS DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY. OTHERWISE...RAIN TO OUR S WILL MAINLY STAY
S OF A LINE FROM PIR TO ATY TODAY.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KF


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