Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 070524 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1224 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 844 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST AND
BE OVER OUR REGION LATER TONIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. THE MIXING LAYER
CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE INTO THE LATE EVENING
HOURS AS SURFACE HEATING SUBSIDES. OTHERWISE...SMOKE CONTINUES TO
FILTER INTO THE REGION ON NORTH WINDS AS SEVERAL OBS STILL SHOWING
HAZE. THUS...CONTINUED WITH AREAS OF SMOKE FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE CWA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COOL ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHEAST ON
TUESDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO SMOKE EXPECTED...EXCEPT FOR ALOFT AS THE
PREVAILING FLOW WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST FROM CANADA. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS ALL SHOW A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT DROPPING INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND
WEAK FOCUS ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO BRING BACK SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
WASH OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS. THUS...TOOK OUT ANY CHANCES OF RAINFALL FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD ARE TEMPERATURE
TRENDS AND GENERALLY LOWER GRADE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IN THE LONG RANGE WILL BEGIN WITH A CLOSED
LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND WEAK UPPER RIDGING OVER SOUTHEASTERN
AND CENTRAL U.S. THE LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL GRADUALLY TRACK
NEWD INTO THE CENTRAL AND NRN PLAINS BY LATE IN THE WEEK...AS STRONG
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING RE-DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
STATES.

IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...EXPECTING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES...UPPER
70S TO MID 80S. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE LATE FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN A GENERAL UPSWING IN PRECIP/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES. HOWEVER...THERE WILL LIKELY BE CAPPING ISSUES ASSOCIATED
WITH INCREASING MID-LEVEL /H7/ TEMPERATURES...SO TIMING AND COVERAGE
OF STORMS IS IN QUESTION.  AT THIS TIME...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
STORMS APPEARS RATHER LOW.  THERE COULD BE A FEW STRONG STORMS
ACROSS WESTERN SD ON FRIDAY...WITH THE THREAT PERHAPS PUSHING EWD ON
SATURDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE CHALLENGING INTO THE WEEKEND AS
THE GFS IS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY WARM CONDITIONS ON SAT/SUN
/90S TO NEAR 100F/ WHEREAS THE ECMWF IS COOLER.  AT THIS
TIME...TRENDED MORE WITH THE COOLISH ECMWF DUE TO ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINS AND REDUCED VERTICAL MIXING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

THE NEXT 24 HOURS SHOULD BE A VFR FORECAST UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE INFLUENCE...EXCEPT THERE WILL BE TIMES WHEN SMOKE
OBSCURATION /OR SOME COMBINATION OF SMOKE AND FOG/ WILL CAUSE
MVFR/IFR VISIBILITY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...MOHR
LONG TERM...FOWLE
AVIATION...WISE


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