Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 291739
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1239 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

.AVIATION...
18Z Issuance...MVFR conditions will continue until around 00Z when
clouds look to start rising and breaking up. VFR conditions should
persist afterwards through the end of the period. Northwest winds
will be gusty while clouds persist then ease.

Beat

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 632 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017/

AVIATION...
For the 12z TAFs...
Poor flying weather expected to persist well into the afternoon
today.  In addition to IFR ceilings and visibilities in rain
showers and fog, northerly surface winds expected to gust into
the 30 to 40 kt range for most of the day.  Potential also exists
for light snow this morning at DHT.  Somewhat drier air works in
late this afternoon as strong closed low begins moving northeast
of forecast area, with ceilings expected to lift into MVFR range.
Improvement to VFR expected between 00z and 03z Thursday.

Cockrell

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 231 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Upper level low over Southeast New Mexico/West Texas to the
southwest of Lubbock is expected to move northeast across the
southeast Texas Panhandle this afternoon and into south central
Kansas tonight. This track of the upper low should put the northwest
half of the CWA in a favorable position for additional
precipitation. The southeast half of the the Texas Panhandle should
also see additional precipitation throughout the day but it may be
more scattered in this area.  Still can not rule out some
thunderstorms mainly across the eastern Oklahoma Panhandle and much
of the northeast and southern Texas Panhandle as the cold core of
the upper low moves across. Have also continued the idea of snow
across the western Oklahoma Panhandle and the northwest Texas
Panhandle for this morning. Latest forecast soundings show that in
this area only the lowest few hundred feet remain above freezing
this morning with plenty of moisture in the subfreezing layer above
that. So do not think that all of the snowflakes will melt before
reaching the surface. We may see an inch of snow or so, mainly to
the west of Boise City, OK to Dalhart, TX line.  Will hold off on a
winter weather advisory for now as ground temperatures are warm and
most of the accumulations should remain on grassy surfaces and not
cause a large impact.

Upper level low pulls away from the panhandles tonight, so a few
showers may linger in the northeast CWA after midnight before
ending.

The next upper level low takes a similar track to this last system
for Friday night into Saturday. It moves to near the 4-corners and
then it dives southeast across New Mexico Saturday morning. This is
where the models diverge. A couple of models want to take the upper
low south of the panhandles Sunday while another model wants to
track the upper low across the panhandles on Sunday. For now have
gone with a compromise and have rain chances starting Friday night
and lingering into Monday as the low slowly tracks across the region.

Tuesday should be dry as the low moves away from the region.

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

16/89



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