Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 172322
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
522 PM CST Fri Nov 17 2017

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF Cycle

VFR conditions will prevail at all three TAF sites through 00Z
Sunday. West to southwest winds 15 to 25 knots with gusts to near
30 and 35 knots will diminish to around 10 to 20 knots after 01Z
Saturday and then shift to the north at the Guymon and Dalhart TAF
sites after 08Z to 10Z Saturday 20 to 30 knots with gusts to near
40 knots. Winds at the Amarillo TAF site will shift to the north
after 09Z to 11Z Saturday 20 to 30 knots with gusts near 40 knots.
North winds at all three TAF sites will diminish to 10 to 20 knots
or less after 20Z Saturday.

Schneider

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 307 PM CST Fri Nov 17 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Forecast remains largely unchanged.  No precipitation expected
for the next seven days.  Ongoing critical fire weather
conditions should end early this evening.

Deep mixing has occurred today in spite of abundance of cirrus
clouds.  Dry west winds with surface trof will diminish
temporarily this evening, but then ramp up again with the approach
and passage of a cold front.  Cold front expected to pass through
the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles between 11 PM tonight and 4 AM
Saturday.  Winds may briefly reach 35 MPH with frontal passage,
particularly in northeast and east parts of the forecast area as a
sharp shortwave trof and associated stronger winds move through
the area.  Do not expect duration of 35 MPH winds to be great
enough to issue a wind advisory for Saturday.  Cold air advection
will hold Saturday high temperatures below normal.  Saturday
night will be cold with lows below freezing area-wide.

Following passage of early Saturday shortwave trof, light to
moderate northwest flow aloft resumes.  Temperatures on Sunday
rise to be close be near-normal.  Southwest winds on Monday bring
highs to around 10 degrees Fahrenheit above climo.  Another cold
front Monday night results in highs Tuesday and Wednesday near
normal.  Thanksgiving Day and Friday expected to be warm with
highs about 10 degrees above climo.  03

Cockrell

FIRE WEATHER...
Dry west and southwest winds will diminish a bit this evening.
Critical and elevated fire weather conditions should end around 6
PM this evening as relative humidity rises above thresholds.
Winds will abruptly shift to the northwest late tonight as a cold
front arrives.  The cold front is expected to pass through
northwest sections before midnight, and to clear the southeast
Texas Panhandle by 4 AM Saturday.  Strong northwest and north
winds early Friday will diminish during the afternoon. Light winds
are expected Saturday night, with dry southwest winds increasing
again on Sunday. Elevated fire weather conditions may develop on
Sunday across parts of the Combined Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles
as relative humidity values drop to around or slightly below 20
percent as southwest winds resume. Southwest winds on Monday are
not expected to be strong.  A cold front Monday night will result
in strong north winds on Tuesday, but relative humidities are
expected to remain well above 20 percent.  Light to moderate
southwest winds return on Wednesday.  No elevated or critical
fire weather conditions are expected Monday through Friday.  03

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for the following
     zones: Armstrong...Carson...Collingsworth...Deaf Smith...
     Donley...Gray...Oldham...Potter...Randall.

OK...None.

&&

$$

11



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