Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 240012 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
612 PM CST Mon Jan 23 2017

For the 00Z TAFs, winds will diminish by early this evening. A
Pacific cold front will move across the area later tonight into
Tuesday morning. The associated upper level storm system will zip
across the central plains well to our north, so no precipitation is
anticipated durg this fcst cycle. However, strong and gusty southwest
to west winds will prevail from mid to late Tuesday morning through
the afternoon hours. An Aviation Weather Warning for KAMA will likely
become necessary on Tuesday.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 302 PM CST Mon Jan 23 2017/

The upper level analysis places an upper level ridge over the
southern Plains breaking down as Pac NW trough digs into the Great
Basin region. Southwest winds aloft and large scale subsidence
have helped keep breezy to windy conditions today while 20z
temperatures reside in the mid to high 60s across most of the
Panhandles. A strong mid level jet is rounding the base of Pac NW
trough bringing dry air into SW AZ per water vapor imagery.

Numerical models continue to indicate that this jet will lift into
the Panhandles tonight through Tuesday with the strongest winds
over the southern Texas Panhandle by 18z Tuesday. Winds at the
surface will strengthen during the late morning and afternoon
hours Tuesday under the jet and in response to a tightening
pressure gradient as lee cyclogenesis take place over the Front
Range. Model sounding profiles indicate that a good amount of
mixing will occur and is expected in SW quadrant of surface low.
Advisory criteria winds are currently expected in the west,
southwest and south central Texas Panhandle during the late
morning and afternoon hours. This may need to be extended east
with the overnight package. Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be
possible in the advisory area. As the dry, cool air invades from
the west in the form of a Pacific should help counter
the strong downsloping SW winds and result in mostly 50s for

Winds will decrease some during the evening as the surface low
shifts east over the central Plains and the main cold front pushes
into the OK Panhandle. Winds could pick up briefly overnight as the
front pushes south with good CAA along the front. Temperatures will
drop into the 20s across the area overnight into Wednesday morning.
A deck of clouds may also develop behind the cold front but should
clear out by mid to late morning Wed.

The upper level trough axis will cross the area early Wed and lift
up into the OH Valley leaving the Panhandles in zonal flow through
the end of the week. This will keep the cooler dry air mass in place
resulting in below average temperatures and dry conditions.
Numerical models do indicate a positive tilt shortwave trough
shifting south over the Great Basin and into the Desert SW towards
the weekend and breaking off the main flow towards early next week.
This only results in NW flow aloft for us which could result in
another cold front over the weekend. Moisture will be limited and
thus...precip looks unlikely for the long term.


Elevated fire weather conditions look likely across most of the
Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles on Tuesday. Relative humidity is
expected to drop to around or just below 20 percent while 20 foot
winds increase into the 20 to 30 mph range from the west/southwest
during the late morning and afternoon hours. Winds will shift to
the north during the evening and overnight hours as a cold front
sweeps through the Panhandles from north to south.



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 6 PM CST Tuesday for the following
     zones: Armstrong...Carson...Dallam...Deaf Smith...Hartley...



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