Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 312223
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
523 PM CDT WED AUG 31 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Heavy rains in the eastern Panhandles continue this afternoon as the
plume of moisture continues streaming up from the southwest. Have
continued the Flood Watch through tomorrow 00Z as expect these heavy
rains to continue. Much of the eastern Panhandles have received
between 2 and 6 inches of rain already and with PWATs still above
90th percentile, storms will continue producing large amounts of
precip. Upper flow hasn`t changed either, so persistence says we can
expect more of the same through Thursday.

By Friday, the upper pattern will begin to change as the ridge moves
off to the east. A mid level shortwave will transverse through the
area and keep pops around, but chances will begin to diminish some.
Models start to diverge over the weekend and through the extended
period, but the ridge moves away and the next upper level longwave
trough approaches. This will set the area up for southwest flow
again, but the moisture plume doesn`t look to be maintained, so
isolated convection from the mountains or diurnal heating will be the
influencing factor into pops. The low level jet will also start
heating up during this period, so storms in the evening may become
stronger. For now, not seeing severe storms yet though.

Beat

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Scattered storms continue to develop across the eastern portions of
the Panhandles. With slow moving storms, training convection, and
PWATs above the 90th percentile, storms will continue producing heavy
rainfall. Flooding or flash flooding issues continue to be a concern
in this area as 2 to 6 inches have already fallen across the area.
Not expecting any organization of the storms as upper flow is weak.
The eastern Panhandles are most favored due to the stationary
convergence axis.

Beat

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                62  76  63  77  64 /  60  50  30  30  20
Beaver OK                  67  77  66  80  66 /  50  40  10  10  20
Boise City OK              62  75  63  79  64 /  40  40  20  20  20
Borger TX                  65  79  66  80  66 /  60  40  20  20  20
Boys Ranch TX              63  79  65  80  65 /  40  40  30  20  20
Canyon TX                  61  77  63  77  64 /  60  40  30  30  20
Clarendon TX               66  78  66  79  65 /  60  50  30  30  20
Dalhart TX                 61  76  63  78  64 /  40  40  20  20  20
Guymon OK                  65  77  65  79  66 /  50  30  20  20  20
Hereford TX                61  77  63  78  64 /  50  50  30  30  20
Lipscomb TX                66  77  67  79  66 /  60  50  20  10  20
Pampa TX                   65  75  65  78  65 /  60  50  20  20  20
Shamrock TX                67  78  67  79  66 /  70  50  20  20  20
Wellington TX              68  79  68  81  67 /  60  60  30  20  20

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Flood Watch through Thursday evening for the following zones:
     Armstrong...Carson...Collingsworth...Donley...Gray...
     Hansford...Hemphill...Hutchinson...Lipscomb...Ochiltree...
     Roberts...Wheeler.

OK...Flood Watch through Thursday evening for the following zones:
     Beaver...Texas.


&&

$$

3/16



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