Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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FXUS65 KBOI 170318

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
918 PM MDT Mon Oct 16 2017

.DISCUSSION...Weak upper ridge will flatten on Tuesday as a weak
short wave trough moves into the Idaho Panhandle. The short wave
will bring some clouds and a chance of showers to the far north
late Tuesday. Otherwise, the warm dry conditions will continue
with temperatures in the low-mid 70s in some of the lower
valleys. No updates.


.AVIATION...VFR. Mostly clear with thin cirrus clouds. Surface
winds variable up to 10kt, becoming W-SW 5-15kt in SE Oregon on
Tue afternoon. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: West 15-25kt.


SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday...Warm and dry conditions
expected as the forecast area remains under a weak upper level
ridge. A weak shortwave trough will weaken the ridge late Tuesday
as it moves across Washington State and the Idaho Panhandle. This
will increase cloud cover and bring a slight chance of showers
across our northern zones. The upper level flow becomes
southwesterly ahead of the next upper level trough expected for
Thursday night/Friday. Models have slowed the timing of this
trough by another 12 hours so have removed precipitation mention
for most areas on Thursday. Winds will increase ahead of this
system which will allow for unseasonably warm temperatures.
Temperatures in the mid to upper 60s in the lower valleys on
Tuesday will reach the mid 70s by Thursday.

LONG TERM...Thursday Night through Monday...Cool and occasionally
wet. Pacific cold front will bring rain and snow Thursday night
and Friday, and gusty west winds Friday afternoon. Rain will taper
off Friday afternoon in Oregon and Friday evening in Idaho. Next
Pacific storm will bring a warm front and significant rain
Saturday afternoon and night, especially over northern areas.
Light rain will continue in northern areas Sunday and Sunday night
but the south will dry out. Mostly cloudy Monday with a slight
chance of rain continuing in the northern mountains under strong
moist west-northwesterly flow aloft. Friday will be 15 to 20
degrees cooler than Thursday. Saturday will be another 2-4 degrees
cooler. Sunday and Monday will start a warming trend.





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