Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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FXUS65 KBOI 211527

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
927 AM MDT Fri Oct 21 2016

.DISCUSSION...Slightly warmer today as upper ridge amplifies over
us.  Surface cold front to our northwest will bring light rain to
Baker, Adams, and Valley Counties tonight and/or early Saturday
morning.  Models have weak instability on the front and we are
considering adding a slight chance of thunderstorms in Baker County
this evening.  Drying and a little cooler Saturday behind the cold


.AVIATION...VFR. Increasing mid-high level clouds from the west
today. Scattered showers northwest of a KBNO-KONO-KSNT line
beginning around 22/03Z and ending Saturday before noon. Surface
winds: generally southerly 12 kts or less, with gusts up to 20 kts
near KMUO this afternoon.  Winds aloft to 10k feet MSL: southwest 20-
30 kts.

Weekend Outlook...VFR. Areas of mid-upper level ceilings mainly west
and north of KBOI.  Drier conditions for Sunday.


SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday...A cold front remains just
northwest of the region today and will be the focus for
precipitation tonight across our northern zones. Moist westerly
flow will keep scattered to broken clouds mainly north of a Burns-
Boise-Stanley line today. Temperatures should climb back above
normal this afternoon, especially south of the above mentioned
line. A weak upper level trough moves inland late tonight which
shifts the cold front southwest over Burns, Baker city and McCall.
A precipitation band develops along the front for steady rain
north of a Burns to McCall line through early Saturday morning.
Precipitation amounts will generally be about a tenth of inch with
light snow accumulations above 8000 feet. Embedded convective
showers could produce higher rainfall amounts so the Cornet-Windy
Ridge burn scar will need to be monitored. The band dissipates
late Saturday morning as the trough exits the region and the upper
level ridge rebuilds northward. Temperatures remain above normal

LONG TERM...Saturday night through Friday...An upper-level ridge
centered over the Rockies on Sunday will migrate east, allowing
showers associated with an offshore upper-level low to spread into
eastern Oregon on Monday, and across central and southwest Idaho
Monday night and Tuesday. Moist southwest flow aloft will continue
the chance of showers through Wednesday night. An upper-level ridge
amplifying over the Intermountain Region will decrease the chances
of precipitation starting Thursday, but forecast confidence
decreases by Friday as models diverge. Temperatures will be 5 to 10
degrees above normal Sunday and Monday, then cool to near normal for
Tuesday through Friday.





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