Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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FXUS65 KBOI 300859
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
259 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS ALONG THE
WEST COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD...BRINING THE ADVERTISED INCREASE
IN TEMPERATURES. HIGHS AROUND NORMAL TODAY WILL WARM TO 5-8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY /PUSHING 100 DEGREES AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS/. MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE
AREA ON FRIDAY AS IT GETS DRAWN NORTH. INITIALLY THE DEEPER
MOISTURE REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA SO ONLY EXPECT AN INCREASE IN
AFTERNOON CLOUD DEVELOPMENT OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF SE OREGON ON
FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS WITH A VERY WARM AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION AND THE AXIS OF A RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST.  THIS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS AROUND 100 DEGREES OVER THE SNAKE
RIVER VALLEY AND UPPER 80S IN HIGH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.  MODELS STILL
DO NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON WHAT TO DO WITH MONSOON MOISTURE
TRAPPED UNDER THE RIDGE.  GFS REMAINS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH BRINING
THE MOISTURE NORTH COMPARED TO THE ECMWF BUT CURRENT RUNS OF THE
ECMWF IS SHOWING MORE MOISTURE COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS.  EXPECT
MONSOON MOISTURE WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE IT INTO THE FORECAST AREA BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO THE EXACT TIMING.  FOR NOW WILL NOT MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO THE POP FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS OVER
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN HARNEY COUNTY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.  SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SPREAD OVER THE REST OF SOUTHEAST OREGON BUT EXPECT SOUTHWEST IDAHO
TO REMAIN DRY.  MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MODELS SHOWING AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTH ALONG THE CANADIAN WEST COAST WITH A
LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF THE WEST COAST.  MODELS IN BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW AND TROUGH DEVELOPING...BUT DO
NOT HAVE ANY RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AS TO TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
THE LOW AND TROUGH.  DEPENDING ON HOW THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW AND
TROUGH DEVELOP WILL AT LEAST SEE TEMPERATURES COOL TO NEAR NORMAL BY
WEDNESDAY.  LATEST MODEL TRENDS SHOWING INCREASE CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION OVER THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE
CURRENT TREND OF THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION BEING MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR.  CLEAR SKIES.  SURFACE WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS.
WINDS ALOFT VARIABLE 10 KNOTS OR LESS UP THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....JA
AVIATION.....JA



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