Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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FXUS65 KBOI 010318
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
918 PM MDT WED AUG 31 2016

.DISCUSSION...Shower and thunderstorm activity will continue
across s-central Idaho overnight, though coverage and intensity
will diminish after midnight. Showers and storms this evening
will be accompanied by gusty winds, with stronger cells producing
speeds to 45 mph. Otherwise southeast Oregon and much of southwest
will see clearing skies overnight as dry air works in from the
south. Current forecast is on track, to include thunderstorm and
gusty wind threat over the s-central Idaho zones for the rest of
this evening.

&&

.AVIATION...Mostly VFR with some MVFR and local IFR conditions
due to wildfire smoke. Isolated showers and thunderstorms in the
Magic Valley expected to dissipate by 01/06Z. Gusty winds near these
storms could be 35-40 kts. Otherwise, northwest surface winds
calming to 10 kts or less by 01/05z. Winds aloft near 10 KFT MSL:
southwest 10-20 kts.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...At 20Z KCBX radar showed a narrow band of showers from
Steens mountain nne to Hells Canyon.  The showers were supported by
a weak short wave trough in west-central Oregon.  Showers should end
by 00Z.  Late today isolated showers and thunderstorms will begin in
Twin Falls County nne through Camas County. Models indicate the main
activity between 00Z and 03Z.  Due to dryness at low levels
thunderstorms will produce mainly gusty winds, possibly as strong as
50 mph.  Drying from west to east late tonight.  Main upper trough
off the nw coast will move inland tonight and into our CWA Thursday
night and Friday, with showers north of 45N. Thursday will be 5 to 8
degrees cooler than today.  Friday will be another 10 to 15 degrees
cooler.  Snow may fall on the highest peaks in Baker County Friday.

LONG TERM...Friday night through Wednesday...Below normal
temperatures and unsettled weather continues to be the story for the
long term forecast. Models are in agreement with lower temperatures,
but still remain conflicted with precipitation amount/location. Kept
the precipitation confined to the northern zones, mostly Baker
County, OR, and the West Central Idaho Mountains.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....EP
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....JC/WH


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