Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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FXUS65 KBOI 250318
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
918 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE PICS ARE SHOWING A WELL DEFINED UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN NW THIS EVENING. HIGH CLOUD
COVER HAS DEVELOPED IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL LIKELY
KEEP FOG FROM DEVELOPING IN SHELTERED VALLEYS. MORE OPEN VALLEYS
LIKE BAKER AND THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN WILL SEE ENOUGH OF A
EASTERLY WIND TO KEEP FOG FROM DEVELOPING. SEE LITTLE CHANGE IN
LATEST FORECAST MODELS FOR WINDS THAT WILL DEVELOP OVER SE OREGON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WILL SEE WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS ALONG RIDGETOPS. FOR TONIGHT HAVE MADE A MINOR UPDATE TO
THE SKY COVER...OTHERWISE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IS ON TRACK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT. INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SFC WINDS SHOULD
KEEP ANY THREAT OF PATCHY VALLEY FOG AT BAY. GENERALLY LIGHT
SOUTHEAST SFC WINDS ACROSS IDAHO WITH MODERATE SOUTH WINDS OVER
EASTERN OREGON. WINDS AOB 10KFT GENERALLY SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 KTS
OVER ID AND SOUTHWEST 35 TO 50 KTS OVER EASTERN OREGON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...LINE OF SHOWERS FROM BAKER
TO MCCALL ALONG A WARM FRONT WILL EXIT TO THE NORTH BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE FROM SOUTH TO THE NORTH
THIS EVENING AS SOUTHWEST FLOW PULLS DRIER AIR OUT OF NEVADA. AN
UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...BECOMING VERY WINDY IN
PORTIONS OF SE OREGON BY THE AFTERNOON. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR HARNEY COUNTY AND MALHEUR COUNTY. THE SOUTH WINDS WILL
ALSO DRAW WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY IN THE
TREASURE/WESTERN MAGIC VALLEYS WHERE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE 70S. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO OUR
AREA...WITH THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY OCCURRING IN THE BOISE/WEST
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. SHADOWING EFFECTS WILL LIMIT THE QPF AMOUNTS IN
THE TREASURE VALLEY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN
ALONG A COLD FRONT SUNDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
MUCH COOLER AIR WITH VALLEYS HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S. SNOW LEVELS
WILL DROP CONSIDERABLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST /ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS OF
SW IDAHO/ WITH LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ABOVE 5000 FEET.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE UNSETTLED PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WE CAN EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER EASTERN OREGON
AND THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS A
WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. THE RIDGE WILL GAIN AMPLITUDE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION
ON THURSDAY THEN SHIFT EAST OVER THE ROCKIES ON FRIDAY...LEAVING
EASTERN OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO UNDER A DRIER AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM FROM
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE AS BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF AND THEIR ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON MDT /11 AM PDT/ TO 8 PM MDT /7 PM PDT/
     SATURDAY ORZ061-063.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....CR
PREV SHORT TERM...BW
PREV LONG TERM....JT/WH



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