Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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FXUS65 KBOI 220922
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
322 AM MDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WE REMAIN IN SW FLOW ALOFT
WITH A MOIST ATMOSPHERE AND ABOVE-AVERAGE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY.
THIS COMBINATION LED TO A GREAT DEAL OF LIGHTNING YDAY...
ESPECIALLY IN SE OREGON. CHANCES ARE GOOD THAT WE WILL HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE EVENT AGAIN TODAY. WE HAVE INCREASED POPS
AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE OVER MOST OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY FOR
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SPC HAS US IN A /SEE TEXT/
AREA...MEANING WE ARE NEAR THEIR THRESHOLD FOR SEVERE WEATHER. A
VORT MAX LOCATED NEAR 33 N 127 W AS OF 2 AM MDT WAS MOVING NE.
THIS WILL ACCELERATE LATER TODAY AS IT HEADS TOWARD THE AREA. LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS VORT MAX WILL AID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THIS VORT MAX IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A JET MAX OF AROUND 90 KTS AT 300 MB. THIS WILL PROVIDE AMPLE
SHEAR TO MAINTAIN LONG-LIVED AND ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. PW
VALUES ARE BETWEEN 0.75 AND 1.00 INCH ACROSS THE AREA...SO STORMS
WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN IN THE CORES...ALONG WITH HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS. STORM MOTION WILL BE NORTHEAST AROUND 40 MPH...INCREASING
THE CHANCE FOR STRONG WINDS BUT DECREASING THE CHANCES FOR FLASH
FLOODING. THE CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE NIGHT...
ALTHOUGH IT WILL DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF THE FIRE
WEATHER ZONES BECAUSE OF THE ANTICIPATED LIGHTNING. SEE BELOW FOR
DETAILS. WED...AS A STRONG TROUGH MOVES BY TO OUR NORTH...WE WILL
FIND OURSELVES IN A DRY SLOT AND MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE TO
OUR NORTH AND WEST. HOWEVER...WE STILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NRN
QUARTER OF THE CWA. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TODAY AND WED.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS WASHINGTON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN ALONG
THE CANADIAN BORDER AND EAST OF THE ROCKIES BY THURSDAY NIGHT.
FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING MUCH COOLER...
DRIER...AND MORE STABLE AIR ACROSS OUR AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE ON FRIDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL ON SATURDAY THEN ABOVE NORMAL ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS THE FOUR CORNERS UPPER LEVEL HIGH REBUILDS OVER THE
NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 100 DEGREES IN THE LOWER VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR EXCEPT LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THUNDERSTORMS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS BY 00Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...MAINLY
NORTH OF A KBNO-KMUO-KSUN LINE AFTER 06Z. ON WEDNESDAY EXPECT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS OF BAKER COUNTY OREGON AND CENTRAL IDAHO. SURFACE
WINDS...VARIABLE AROUND 10 KTS EXCEPT GUSTS TO 40 KTS NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ALOFT...SOUTHWEST UP TO 20 KTS AT 10K FT MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT MDT
     TONIGHT IDZ400-401-420-423.
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 3 PM MDT /2 PM PDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO
     MIDNIGHT MDT /11 PM PDT/ TONIGHT ORZ636-637-646.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....JT
AVIATION.....JT


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