Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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FXUS65 KBOI 080230
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
830 PM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED PULSE-TYPE THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING IN EASTERN OREGON...WITH FEWER STORMS
MAINLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN IN WESTERN IDAHO.  ALL STORMS MOVED
TOWARD THE ESE AND SOME HAD HEAVY RAIN.  WIND GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH
WERE REPORTED AT TRIANGLE IN WRN OWYHEE CO/ID AND SHO-PAI JUST
SOUTH OF OWYHEE CO BUT MOST STORMS HAD LIGHTER WINDS.  AT 8 PM
MDT ONE THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR LAKE OWYHEE IN EAST-CENTRAL MALHEUR
CO/OR AND A COUPLE OTHERS IN GOODING AND JEROME COUNTIES IN IDAHO.
STORMS WERE WEAKENING.  THE TREND NEXT THREE DAYS...HOWEVER...WILL
BE GREATER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS PACIFIC UPPER LOW COMES IN FROM
CALIF.  TEMPS WILL ALSO BE COOLER.  CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...
NO UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END BY 06Z...EXCEPT
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG THE
NEVADA BORDER.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE SNAKE RIVER...THEN EXPAND NORTHWARD
INTO THE MAGIC VALLEY AND THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF IDAHO BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING.  SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE 12 KNOTS OR
LESS...EXCEPT ERRATIC GUSTS UP TO 40 KNOTS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
WINDS ALOFT NORTHWESTERLY 10-20 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE HAS
INCREASED ACROSS HARNEY...MALHEUR...AND OWYHEE COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN ISOLATED OVER THE CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS. RADAR RETURNS SUGGEST RAINFALL RATES OF A HALF INCH OR
MORE PER HOUR WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. THE CONVECTION WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING...BUT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NEAR
THE NEVADA BORDER AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES INLAND. A DEFORMATION AXIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM SOUTH-
NORTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY MORNING WHICH
COULD LEAD TO NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE HEAVY RAIN...ESPECIALLY
ON STEEP TERRAIN AND BURN SCARS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY FOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION. IN ADDITION...UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS SHOULD BE ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE TROUGH WILL EXIT THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AS ANOTHER
STRONGER TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE NORTHWEST COAST SETTING UP MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA. SHORT WAVES ARE SHOWN TO
ROTATE AROUND THE TROUGH AND THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY THOUGH THE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAR EAST THESE SHORT WAVES
MAKE IT. THIS WOULD AFFECT THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS AS IT SLOWLY
SHIFTS INLAND MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MOISTURE MAY ALSO BECOME MORE
LIMITED BY TUESDAY AS THE MAIN MOISTURE TAP FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN
U.S. IS PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE STRONGER CELLS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHICH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR
FLASHING FLOODING POTENTIAL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT IDZ423.
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT /11 PM PDT/ WEDNESDAY NIGHT
     ORZ636-637.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....JA
PREV SHORT TERM...BW
PREV LONG TERM....JS/WH


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