Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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FXUS65 KBOI 260251
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
851 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...MINOR UPDATE TO DRY OUT THE MAGIC VALLEY AND CAMAS
PRAIRIE FORECAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. UNTIL THEN EXPECT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
CONTINUE TO DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. AS OF 830 PM IT WAS EAST
OF A LINE FROM BASQUE STATION /IN SOUTHERN MALHEUR COUNTY/ TO
MARSING AND NOTUS /ACROSS THE IDAHO LOWER TREASURE VALLEY/ THEN TO
CASCADE AND JOHNSON CREEK AIR STRIP /IN THE WEST CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. LIGHTNING WITH STRONGER CELLS AT 835 PM WERE NEAR
MARSING AND SOUTH OF JORDAN VALLEY. THEY ARE MOVING INTO RAIN
COOLED AIR AND WITH SUNSET ARE EXPECTED TO DIE OFF SOON. DRY AIR
MOVING ACROSS OREGON ZONES TUESDAY WILL LIMIT MOST OF THE PRECIP
TO THE IDAHO MOUNTAINS...IN SPITE OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE PACNW.
ON WEDNESDAY THE LOW WILL HAVE MORE MOISTURE WRAPPED AROUND ITS
WESTERN HALF SO CHANCES ARE BETTER FOR PRECIP ON THE OREGON SIDE
AS WELL. THOUGH LIKELY AND HIGHER POPS ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE ID/NV
BORDER TUE/WED. ONLY MINOR UPDATES FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN
MALHEUR COUNTY...THE OWYHEE AND BOISE MOUNTAINS...AND THE TREASURE
VALLEY WILL END BY 06Z. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN OREGON AND
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO...MAINLY EAST OF KBNO. SURFACE WINDS...
WEST TO NORTHWEST 5-15 KTS...EXCEPT GUSTS TO 35 KT NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ALOFT...WEST 10-20 KTS UP THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...CONVECTION IS UNDERWAY
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH STRONG STORMS MAINLY OVER THE OWYHEES
AND OVER THE REMAINDER OF OWYHEE COUNTY. ONE STRONG CELL WAS
PRODUCING HAIL NEAR MARSING AT 230 PM MDT. ANOTHER STRONG CELL
WAS MOVING EAST OF MURPHY TOWARD MOUNTAIN HOME. WE EXPECT THE BEST
CHANCE OF STORMS TO REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM EXTREME
SOUTHWEST HARNEY COUNTY THROUGH BAKER CITY...WITH THE MAJORITY
REMAINING IN OWYHEE COUNTY...AND SRN TWIN FALLS COUNTY BY THIS
EVENING.

A STRONG UPPER LOW MOVING SLOWLY SE IN WASHINGTON IS PROVIDING THE
MAIN SOURCE OF LIFT FOR THIS ACTIVITY...AND THIS WILL HOLD TRUE
TOMORROW AND INTO WEDNESDAY. BY WED...THE UPPER LOW WILL OVER NRN
IDAHO. DRIER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO MUCH OF SERN OREGON...
LIMITING CONVECTION THERE TUE AND WED. SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AS THE FLOW AROUND THE UPPER LOW MOVES CLOSER TO OUR
AREA...ALLOWING FOR MODERATE TO STRONG STORMS EVEN AS THE MOISTURE
DECREASES. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR WHERE WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST FEW
DAYS BOTH FOR HIGHS AND LOWS...WITH WINDS AN ISSUE ONLY NEAR
STORMS.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE MOVES INLAND FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BRINGING WARMER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SHOWING
ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE ON MONDAY THOUGH THEY VARY
QUITE A BIT WITH THE OVERALL DETAILS. HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER MOST OF THE AREA AHEAD OF THIS
TROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES AROUND NORMAL THURSDAY WILL WARM TO
AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL APPROACH 90F IN THE LOWEST VALLEYS NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...VM
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....JS/WH


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