Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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FXUS65 KBOI 162050
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
250 PM MDT WED APR 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...AMPLIFIED BUT FAST-MOVING UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL
CAUSE RAPID DAY-TO-DAY TEMPERATURE CHANGES...THURSDAY BEING MUCH
WARMER THAN TODAY AS UPPER RIDGE COMES THROUGH OUR CWA.  BEHIND
THE RIDGE IS A SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND GUSTY
WINDS FOLLOWED BY A COOL-DOWN FRIDAY TO TODAY/S TEMPERATURES.
STEEPENING LAPSE RATE LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO HARNEY
COUNTY THURSDAY EVENING AND TO SRN MALHEUR COUNTY AND THE OWYHEE
MOUNTAINS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.  COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH OREGON
ZONES THURSDAY NIGHT AND IDAHO ZONES BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6AM MDT
FRIDAY.  FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS TO NRN
ZONES AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO SRN ZONES...CLEARING WEST TO EAST
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWING A WARM AND
DRY EASTER WEEKEND A STORM SYSTEM FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY AND MUCH COOLER AND WETTER WEATHER FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SNOW LEVELS COULD FALL AS LOW AS 4500 FEET BY
WEDNESDAY. A COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OFF THE COAST ON
MONDAY THEN MOVE INLAND OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION ON TUESDAY...
AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER NEVADA AND CROSSES EASTERN IDAHO.
BEHIND THE LOW GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE CURRENTLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS
MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO AROUND 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERNIGHT LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING IN THE LOWER VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM
WILL SPREAD SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN OREGON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT. SURFACE WINDS...LIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS FROM THE SOUTHEAST
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT...SOUTHWEST TO WEST UP TO 20 KTS AT
10K FT MSL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK
FOR IDAHO FOR THE 2014 WATER YEAR PROJECTS NEAR AVERAGE TO ABOVE
AVERAGE RUNOFF VOLUMES FOR THE PANHANDLE REGION...THE
CLEARWATER...SALMON...AND PAYETTE RIVER AREAS...AS WELL AS THE
UPPER SNAKE RIVER. ELSEWHERE... THE OUTLOOK IS NOT AS
PROMISING...WITH BELOW AVERAGE RUNOFF VOLUMES EXPECTED. PORTIONS
OF THE MAGIC VALLEY...AND SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO BASINS
NEAR THE NEVADA BORDER HAVE BEEN THE DRIEST...WITH WATER SUPPLY
FORECASTS INDICATING AROUND 50 PERCENT OR LESS OF NORMAL RUNOFF.
FORECASTS ON THE SNAKE RIVER BELOW AMERICAN FALLS DAM INDICATEABOUT
60 TO 70 PERCENT OF NORMAL RUNOFF VOLUMES. PLEASE SEE
BOIESFBOI FGUS75KBOI FOR DETAILS OF THE LATEST STATE OF IDAHO
SPRING FLOOD AND WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK...ISSUED APRIL 15 2014.

THE OREGON WATER SUPPLY FOR THE SPRING AND SUMMER IS FORECAST TO BE
BELOW-NORMAL FOR MOST OF OREGON...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AND EAST-
CENTRAL BASINS. DETAILS FOR OREGON CAN BE FOUND IN PDXESFPQR
FGUS76KPQR.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....JT/WH
AVIATION.....JT
HYDROLOGY....VM/TAL



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