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000
FXUS65 KBOU 042240
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
340 PM MST WED DEC 4 2013

.SHORT TERM...JET DYNAMICS HAS MOVED INTO SOUTHERN COLORADO WITH
SUBSIDENCE AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WORKING SOUTH ACROSS CFWA. STILL
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT ALONG WITH OROGRAPHICS KEEPING SOME
LIGHT SNOW GOING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WHICH SHOULD PERSIST INTO
THE EVENING BEFORE DECREASING. WITH SUBSIDENCE AN LACK OF
DYNAMICS...ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION TO BE LESS THAN 3 INCHES.
SOME LIGHT SNOW ALSO OCCURRING ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND
FOOTHILLS AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS MAINLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70. STILL SOME CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW THIS
EVENING...MAINLY SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS AND PALMER DIVIDE. SUBSIDENCE
AND DRIER AIR WILL LIMIT ANY ACCUMULATION. WILL CANCEL ALL
HILITES WITH THIS UPDATE. SOME CLEARING EXPECTED TONIGHT FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH...THOUGH FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER MAY PERSIST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CFWA AS NEXT DISTURBANCE INTO
SOUTHWEST COLORADO. EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER WILL INDEED AFFECT HOW
TEMPERATURES PLUMMET. LOWERED MINS A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE WYOMING BORDER AND ACROSS NORTH AND MIDDLE PARKS WHERE LESS
CLOUD IS EXPECTED. ON THURSDAY...FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SOUTHWEST WITH
SOME MID LEVEL QG ASCENT SPREADING INTO THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF
THE CFWA. WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER...SOME SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS BY...MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
70. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT AND LESS THAN 2 INCHES. ACROSS
THE PLAINS...THERE COULD BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW THOUGH THIS
LOOKS CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH OF DENVER. ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD
BE CONFINED TO THE PALMER DIVIDE...LESS THAN ONE HALF INCH.
TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...STRUGGLING TO
GET NEAR 10 DEGREES. LOOKS LIKE GUIDANCE IS A BIT TOO WARM.

.LONG TERM...MODELS HAVE AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVE ACROSS COLORADO
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.  ON FRIDAY...STRONG WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED.  IT BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY BUT STAYS PRETTY STRONG. THE NEXT UPPER
TROUGH`S AXIS IS PROGGED TO BE OVER THE WESTERN COLORADO BORDER AT
12Z SUNDAY MORNING. THE QG VERTICAL VELOCITY FIELDS HAVE WEAK
UPWARD SYNOPTIC SCALE MOTION FOR THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN
DOWNWARD MOTION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WEAK UPWARD MOTION
RETURNS...AND IT GETS STRONGER BY MID DAY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS PROGGED TO BE EASTERLY THURSDAY
NIGHT...THEN EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY ON FRIDAY. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...SOUTHEASTERLIES ARE PROGGED. FOR MOISTURE...THERE IS
SOME AROUND THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT NOTHING
GREAT. MOISTURE INCREASES ON SATURDAY. THERE IS A TAD OF
MEASURABLE SNOW FALL ON THE QPF FIELDS THURSDAY EVENING IN THE
FOOTHILLS AND PALMER RIDGE. THE QPF FIELDS SHOW NOTHING FOR THE
CWA THE REST OF THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE IS A TAD
AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING IN THE MOUNTAINS. THERE IS
A TAD INDICATED OVER MUCH OF THE CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON...LESS
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR POPS...WILL GO WITH 10-30%S IN THE
MOUNTAINS...FOOTHILLS AND PALMER RIDGE THURSDAY EVENING. ON FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT...SOME MINOR POPS FOR THE MOUNTAINS. WILL
INCREASE POPS IN ALL AREAS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT....WITH
"CHANCE"S OVER THE PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. WILL GO
WITH A FEW AREAS OF "LIKELY"S IN THE HIGH MOUNTAINS SATURDAY
NIGHT. NO HIGHLIGHTS RIGHT NOW. FOR TEMPERATURES...FRIDAY`S HIGHS
ARE 1-3 C WARMER THAN THURSDAY`S. SATURDAY`S HIGHS ARE 1-3 C
WARMER THAN FRIDAY`S. FOR THE LATER DAYS...SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS COLORADO ON
SUNDAY...THEN ANOTHER WEAKER ONE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THERE THE FLOW ALOFT IS NORTHWESTERLY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THERE MAYBE ANOTHER WEAK UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER SURGE OF COLDER AIR PUSHES IN SUNDAY MORNING...WITH
UPSLOPE BEHIND IT. MONDAY STAY`S COLD...BUT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WARM UP SOMEWHAT. WILL KEEPS POPS IN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING...
ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. FOR NOW TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK
DRY...BUT WE`LL SEE.

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES AT KBJC AND KAPA BUT HAS ENDED
AT KDEN. THE AREA OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE DENVER AREA WILL BE ON
THE DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AND SHOULD END BY 03Z...WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION TO BE
LESS THAN ONE HALF INCH...MAINLY AT KAPA. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY
CLEAR AFTER 06Z...WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO NEAR
-10. WINDS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH DRAINAGE
DEVELOPING. ON THURSDAY...SOME INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH BY THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE...AND MAY REACH KAPA. AT THIS
TIME...THE ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA AIRPORTS.


&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ030-
032-035>037-041.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ031-033-
034.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...D-L
LONG TERM....RJK
AVIATION...D-L