Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 241732

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1132 AM MDT Mon Oct 24 2016

Issued at 1129 AM MDT Mon Oct 24 2016

Only minor changes at this time for a bit more high cloudiness and
slightly cooler highs on the northeast plains. It still looks like
showers should not spread into the mountains until early to mid
evening though there is a slight chance of some really light
showers at the end of the day from the afternoon heating.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 431 AM MDT Mon Oct 24 2016

Water vapor and IR satellite loops show a nice plume of moisture
and showers/thunderstorms fanning out from southern California
into western Utah. This plume of moisture will continue to push
eastward today and reach the northern Colorado mountains late this
evening and overnight. 700-500 mb specific humidity and
precipitable water values are rather healthy under this plume,
with 4+ g/kg and >0.75", respectively. There is also weak QG lift
associated with this plume and upper level speed max marching this
way. As a result, should see a well organized band of
precipitation spread east/northeast across the mountains 05Z-12Z.
Mid level flow turns more westerly and some cold advection as well
late tonight so precipitation will be fairly widespread in the
high country. Snow levels per wet bulb zero levels stay quite high
and expect most valley locations below 9000-9500 feet to stay
rain. Accumulations above 10,000 feet mostly expected to range
from 1-4 inches.

Can`t rule out an isolated shower or two spreading east on the
northern plains late tonight with jet dynamics, otherwise low
levels and downslope east of the Rockies too strong to allow much
more than that.

In the meantime, temperatures will remain quite mild today with
upper ridge axis and thermal ridge shifting slowly east across the
region. Not sure exactly how thick cirrus shield will be today as
cross mountain flow does not support significant mountain wave
enhancement. Will warm temps a few degrees expecting sufficient
sunshine and warm advection.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 431 AM MDT Mon Oct 24 2016

Lingering shower activity, mainly over the mountains, will
continue Tuesday and into Tuesday evening as the weak upper level
disturbance crosses over the state. Cross sections show a decent
amount of moisture continuing over the mountains to produce
scattered showers. Temperatures will remain mild with snow levels
around or above the 10,000 foot level. The period of heaviest
precipitation appears like it will be at the beginning of the
trough passage Monday evening, so rain or snowfall amounts should
be pretty light during Tuesday. After this disturbance passes,
strong ridging will re-build over the state, bringing warmer
temperatures and dry weather back to the region through the end of
the week. The GFS and ECMWF still have conflicting solutions for
Friday night and Saturday, so will favor the drier ECMWF solution
for the time being.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1129 AM MDT Mon Oct 24 2016

VFR through tonight. Light winds should become easterly by 20z,
though there could still be some variability due to light speeds.
There is a slight chance of showers Tuesday morning but little or
no impact is expected to KDEN approaches.




SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Dankers
AVIATION...Gimmestad is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.