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000
FXUS65 KBOU 141050
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
450 AM MDT MON JUL 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 450 AM MDT MON JUL 14 2014

FORECAST LOOKING ON TRACK. SOME SUBTLE CHANGES TODAY BUT OVERALL
THE PICTURE IS NOT MUCH DIFFERENT FROM YESTERDAY. A POORLY DEFINED
COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT
NORTH WINDS DEVELOPING. NOT MUCH OF A GRADIENT IN EITHER MOISTURE
OR TEMPERATURES THOUGH...SO AT THE SURFACE THERE REALLY WILL BE
LITTLE CHANGE. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHEAST
CORNER WILL BE THE MAIN DIFFERENCE. THERE WILL BE SOME DRYING
ALOFT...AND THAT SHOULD RESULT IN SOME LOWERING OF DEW POINTS NEAR
THE FRONT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. NOT SEEING THIS IN GPS WATER VAPOR
MEASUREMENTS YET HOWEVER...STILL SHOWING AROUND AN INCH OVER
BOULDER AT THIS TIME.

CURRENT FORECAST OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE FRONT
RANGE...WITH A BIT MORE ON THE EAST SLOPES AND LESS IN THE
NORTHEAST CORNER STILL LOOKS REASONABLE. ONCE AGAIN STORMS COULD
PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN BUT SHOULD BE MOVING FAST ENOUGH TO PREVENT
FLOODING...THREAT IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN YESTERDAY DUE TO THE
DRYING ALOFT. SEVERE THREAT MAY BE A BIT HIGHER HOWEVER AS THERE
IS MORE SHEAR. WE WERE SUPPOSED TO HAVE LOWER CAPES TODAY BUT
WITHOUT A LOT OF DRYING IT REALLY MAY NOT BE MUCH
DIFFERENT...PROBABLY STILL IN THE 800-1600 J/KG RANGE WITH LOWER
VALUES NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. GIVEN THE SHEAR WHICH IS UP TO ABOUT 40
KNOTS IN THE 0-6KM LAYER...THERE IS A THREAT OF SEVERE HAIL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 450 AM MDT MON JUL 14 2014

ON TUESDAY...THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER EASTERN
COLORADO WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST...AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DROPS OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND CLIPS NORTHEASTERN COLORADO
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE NAM12 AND GFS40 SHOW WEAK
QG ASCENT IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROUGH...THE NAM12 IS STRONGER VS THE GFS. ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON...
THE MDLS GOOD INSTABILITY. SELY SFC WINDS WILL HELP TO KICK OFF A
DENVER CYCLONE. STRONGEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE ASSOCIATED
ALONG THE CONVERGENCE LINE WHICH GENERALLY FORMS JUST TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST OF DENVER. CAPES IN THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE WITH PW
VALUES STILL AROUND ONE INCH. DECENT CAPES ALL ALONG FRONT
RANGE...WITH LESSER CAPES TO THE NORTHEAST. BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE
TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE ON TUESDAY. FLASH FLOOD THREAT WL BE
LOW...BUT IF STORMS BECOME STATIONARY ALONG THE BOUNDARY FOR A
SUSTAINED PERIOD OF TIME...THEN THAT RISK WILL BE HIGHER. THE
TIMING BETWEEN THE TWO MDLS IS SIMILAR. SPATIAL CROSS-SECTIONS
SHOW THE DEEPEST MOISTURE TUESDAY NIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY...IT IS
PROGGED TO BE MUCH COOLER...BUT THE MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE MAY
CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH THE MORNING. THE NAM12 HAS THE BEST
INSTABILITY OVER THE FRONT RANGE AND PALMER DIVIDE ON WEDNESDAY
WITH THE PLAINS CAPPED. THE GFS SHOWS MUCH HIGHER CAPE. AM LEANING
TOWARDS THE NAM12 SOLUTION AT THIS TIME. WEATHER WILL HAVE MORE
EMPHASIS ON SHOWERS VS TSTMS ON WEDNESDAY. NOT MUCH CHANGE WITH
THE REST OF THE FORECAST. HOTTER AND DRIER BY FRIDAY WITH JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE FLOW ALOFT IS
MORE WESTERLY OVER THE WEEKEND AS A TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE NRN
TIER. CHC OF STORMS COULD BE HIGHER IF THIS TROUGH DROPS A LITTLE
FURTHER S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 450 AM MDT MON JUL 14 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD OF VARIABLE WINDS FROM THUNDERSTORM
OUTFLOWS IN THE DENVER AREA. CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY ALLOW VISUAL
APPROACHES TO KDEN...THOUGH THEY COULD BE DISRUPTED BRIEFLY AS
STORMS PASS THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 450 AM MDT MON JUL 14 2014

A MOIST AIRMASS WILL STILL ALLOW FOR HEAVY RAINS WITH SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...WITH UP TO AN INCH IN 30 MINUTES. HOWEVER
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE AROUND 15 MPH WHICH WILL LIMIT THE
TOTAL AMOUNT OF RAINFALL...SO THE FLASH FLOOD RISK IS LOW TODAY.

ON TUESDAY...THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING ALONG A BOUNDARY THAT COULD DEVELOP WITH THE DENVER
CYCLONE. OVERALL HOWEVER THE THREAT OF THIS WILL BE LOW AS STORM
MOTIONS PROGGED TO BE AROUND 15 MPH WITH THE MOVEMENT FM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST. CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. IT WILL BE COOLER ON WEDNESDAY WITH JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF TSTMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD
HYDROLOGY...COOPER/GIMMESTAD