Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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000
FXUS65 KBOU 222158
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
258 PM MST Wed Nov 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 210 PM MST Wed Nov 22 2017

Forecast looks to be in good shape. Northwest winds continue to
mix onto the plains. Cheyenne Ridge and areas near the foothills
should remain breezy into the evening while other areas decouple.
Still some very light snow over the higher peaks and we may not
lose this entirely, but a continued gradual decrease is expected
with no accumulation. Winds will continue with a similar pattern
tomorrow as today, only slightly lesser speeds. The airmass will
be a few degrees warmer, putting Denver near the records for both
the date (74)and for Thanksgiving Day (73). Biggest variable is
probably the thickness of the high clouds. At this time only
expecting a minor impact.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 257 PM MST Wed Nov 22 2017

The upper ridge will flatten somewhat Thursday night through
Friday night as a weak upper trough moves across the forecast
area. The flow aloft increases over the CWA to over 100 knots
Friday morning and continues through Saturday afternoon. The upper
ridge builds back on Saturday and the flow aloft is northwesterly.
There is weak upward synoptic scale energy in place Thursday
night and half of Friday, then weak downward motion is progged
through Saturday evening. The low level winds are progged to be
west and southwesterly Thursday night into Friday. Northwesterly
winds are expected Friday afternoon and evening. Normal diurnal
wind patterns are expected later Friday night into Sunday morning.
For moisture, there is some in the upper levels Thursday night. A
bit of lower level moisture is over the mountains Friday and
Friday evening. There is some mid level moisture over the plains
Friday and Friday evening. There is some upper level moisture
again Saturday night. The QPF fields have a tiny bit of measurable
precipitation over the mountains on Friday, otherwise there is
nothing indicated Thursday night through Saturday night. Will go
with some 10-40% pops in the mountains Friday and Friday evening.
For temperatures, Friday`s highs are 2-6 C colder than Thursday`s.
Saturday`s highs are close to Friday`s. For the later days, Sunday
through Wednesday, models have upper ridging over the state Sunday.
On Monday strong southwesterly flow aloft is progged with a jet
maximum over the CWA. Both the GFS and ECMWF show and upper trough
moves across Colorado. The GFS is quicker showing it for Monday
night into Tuesday morning. The ECMWF is all Tuesday into Tuesday
evening. The GFS gets in upper ridge into Colorado by later
Tuesday night. SO timing is not good with the trough, but it
should bring snow to the mountains, a cold front to the plains
and perhaps some precipitation too.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 210 PM MST Wed Nov 22 2017

VFR through Thursday. West to northwest winds at 10-20 knots this
afternoon with some higher gusts at KBJC. KDEN/KAPA should go
back to southerly winds between 01z and 03z.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gimmestad
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...Gimmestad



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