Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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000
FXUS64 KBRO 291321
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
821 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...THE 12Z KBRO SOUNDING SHOWS STRONG WINDS OF 40 KNOTS
AT 950 MB AND IN THE BRO VWP SHOWING 45 KNOTS IN THE LOWER LEVELS
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS RIGHT ALONG THE COAST AND THE
NEAR SHORE WATERS. ONLY ADDED SCA FOR WINDS FOR THE NEAR SHORE
UNTIL THIS EVENING. THE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
TODAY PEAKING THIS AFTERNOON AND TAPERING OFF THIS EVENING. THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH SUNNY CONDITIONS AND NO
CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 704 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...THE 00Z BRO SOUNDING REMAINS VERY DRY WITH A PWAT OF
ONLY 0.51 INCHES WITH A DRY W-WNW FLOW EVIDENT AT AND ABOVE THE
700 MB LEVEL. AT THE LOWER LEVELS A MODERATE TO STRONG PGF FLOW
WILL PREVAIL AS AN ELONGATED COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW ACROSS ALL OF THE RGV
AIRPORTS LATER THIS MORNING CONTINUING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. THE BRO VWP INDICATES A STRONG SOUTHERLY LLJ AT 45 KNOTS
EVIDENT JUST OFF OF THE SURFACE. SO WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF LLWS
IN THE EARLY MORNING PORTIONS OF THE BRO/HRL AND MFE TAFS. BOTH
THE MAV AND MET GUIDANCE HINT AT A RETURN OF ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO ALLOW FOR SOME SCT CLD DECKS AROUND 2500 FEET EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY/...EXPECTED WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
FORECAST ISSUE OF THE DAY. AT THE 500 MB LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE OVER DEEP SOUTH TX WHILE A STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES. AS THIS TROUGH PASSES OVER THE
RIDGE AXIS A PRETTY STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
ROCKIES INTO THE MIDWEST WHICH WILL INCREASE THE PGF OVER MUCH OF
TEXAS RESULTING IN BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS LATER THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE PGF MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH THE WINDS
ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF DEEP SOUTH TX INTO ADVISORY CRITERIA
BY THIS AFTERNOON. SO WILL POST UP AN WIND ADVISORY MAIN FOR THIS
AFTERNOON FOR CAMERON/WILLACY AND KENEDY COUNTIES. THE SHORT WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES WILL MOVE QUICKLY TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE PGF TO WEAKEN ON
MONDAY ALLOWING FOR LIGHTER SURFACE WINDS.

THE STEADY S-SE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN WAA THROUGHOUT THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE MAINTAINS A SLOW BUT STEADY
WARMUP THROUGHOUT TODAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS WELL
INTO THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE RGV WITH SOME 90S POSSIBLE OUT WEST.
THE MAV GUIDANCE HAS A WARMER BIAS VERSUS THE MET NUMBERS CLIMFE.
CONSIDERING THAT THE HIGH IN MFE YESTERDAY WAS 86...HAVE A HARD TIME
BELIEVING THE COOLER 81 ADVERTISED BY THE NAM FOR MFE TODAY. SO WILL
LEAN TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE MAV AND ECMWF NUMBERS WHICH APPEAR MORE
REALISTIC IN THE SHORT TERM.

AS THE SURFACE DEWPOINTS START INCREASING WILL MENTION SOME PATCHY
FOG POTENTIAL FOR THE NORTHERN COUNTIES TONIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE
MONDAY. THE FAIRLY STIFF NIGHTTIME SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD LIMIT
ANY WIDESPREAD FOG AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...THE FORECAST
PERIOD BEGINS WITH A 500 MB SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE BAJA REGION OF
NORTHWEST MEXICO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE BIG BEND REGION
TUESDAY THEN ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TEXAS WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY AS THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT AS PRECIPITABLE WATERS VALUES
APPROACH 1.60 INCHES. HOWEVER...THE BULK OF THE LIFT WILL BE TO THE
NORTH AND THE LATEST GFS PAINTS LESS POPS AND QPF...THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS...ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL LOWER
POPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE VALLEY BUT WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS DUE TO THE BETTER LIFT AND MOISTURE.

RAIN CHANCES WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH CONVECTION
LINGERING ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH RIDGING BUILDING
FROM THE SOUTH TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TUESDAY...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S...DUE TO ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP AGAIN
MID TO LATE WEEK AS THE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90
DEGREES ACROSS THE FAR WEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES EACH NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70. HIGH
TEMPERATURES DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE 70S ON SATURDAY COURTESY OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH MONDAY...THE SAME PGF THAT IS PRODUCING THE
STRONGER WINDS ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS WILL BE PUSHING UP THE WIND
POTENTIAL FOR THE MARINE AREAS TODAY. DESPITE THE FAIRLY COOL WATER
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR BOTH THE BAY AND GULF WATERS
BELIEVE THAT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MIXING MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE LAGUNA
MADRE TO ALLOW FOR SOME DOWNWARD MIXING OF THE LLJ IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION. WILL HOLD OFF FOR THE TIME BEING FOR POSTING AN SCA FOR THE
GULF WATERS AS THE WINDS MAY STAY JUST BELOW SCA CRIT THERE. THE PGF
WILL THEN DECREASE ON MONDAY SOMEWHAT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES PUSHES EASTWARD WHICH APPEARS TO KEEP
THE BAY AND GULF WATERS NEAR SCEC CONDITIONS TOMORROW.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. BRIEF PERIODS OF
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BUT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS APPEAR UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. A MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS BY MID WEEK RESULTING IN
AN INCREASE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     TXZ251-254>257.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR GMZ130-132-135-150-155.

&&

$$

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