Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 191155 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
555 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2018

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

.AVIATION...Poor aviation conditions are prevailing right now with
low clouds in place at all aerodromes and light precipitation at
MFE. After a brief pause, the light rain and drizzle should resume
at BRO and HRL. Conditions will improve around sunset this evening
as low pressure moves away from the Lower Texas Coast and takes
the precipitation with it. Fog will be a concern tonight as cloud
cover becomes limited, winds become light to calm, and moist soils
remain from recent rains and ice.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 313 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2018/

SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday): Widespread light rain and
drizzle with embedded isolated showers is affecting the central and
eastern portions of the BRO CWFA and adjacent coastal waters.
Surface low pressure will develop along the Lower Texas Coast today
and quickly eject off towards the northeast as closed 500 mb low
pressure progressively moves east across Texas and into the
Mississippi River Valley. Rain chances will gradually taper off from
west to east today, and end altogether tonight, as the surface low
moves away. Dry weather with plenty of sunshine will then prevail
for Saturday as building mid-level high pressure replaces the closed
500 mb low. Below normal temperatures today courtesy of overcast
skies and ample rain chances will return to near normal values on
Saturday due to limited cloud cover and prolific sunshine.

LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday): Temperatures continue
to recover Saturday night and Sunday with 500mb ridging overhead and
southeast flow continues at the surface. Above normal temperatures
will prevail through the rest of the weekend. Saturday night will be
mild with low temperatures Saturday night mainly in the 60s. Sunday
will be breezy, especially near the coast, as the pressure gradient
strengthens. High temperatures Sunday will be generally be in the
upper 70s to around 80 degrees with a mix of sun and clouds. Mid
level ridging will move to the east late in the weekend as a cold
front approaches deep south Texas.

The next cold front (from a milder source region) arrives Sunday
night bringing slightly cooler and drier air behind it. Some
showers will be possible with the front Sunday night into Monday
morning. Rain chances increase Tuesday night into Wednesday night
as a surface trough moves north and interacts with an upper level
disturbance. Rain chances diminish Thursday and Friday as the next
mid level short wave moves east and surface high pressure builds
into the region. Near normal temperatures are expected through
late next week.

MARINE: (Now through Saturday): Buoy 42019 reported east winds
around 14 knots gusting to around 18 knots with seas slightly under
4 feet with a period of 6 seconds at 02 CST/08 UTC. Low pressure
will develop along the Lower Texas Coast and move quickly off to the
northeast, allowing high pressure to resume over the western Gulf of
Mexico tonight and Saturday. The pressure gradient will be enough to
produce moderate winds and seas, with Small Craft Exercise Caution
for a portion of the Lower Texas coastal waters through the period.

Saturday Night through Tuesday Night: Moderate southeast to south
winds will prevail along the lower Texas coast Saturday night into
Sunday as the gradient strengthens ahead of the next cold front.
Marine conditions will briefly improve by Sunday evening as the
gradient relaxes ahead of the approaching cold front. The cold front
will move through the lower Texas coastal waters late Sunday
bringing moderate north winds and moderate to high seas Monday and
Monday night. Marine Conditions will improve Tuesday and Tuesday
night as high pressure spreads across the area. Periods of Small
Craft Should Exercise conditons to low end Small Craft Advisory
conditions likely Saturday night through Monday night.



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