Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 241133 AAA
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
633 AM CDT Tue Oct 24 2017

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...Satellite imagery shows a couple patches of clouds in
the mid valley and Ranchlands this morning, but most areas remain
clear with light northerly winds. Main impacts today will be the
strengthening north winds later this morning and afternoon as high
pressure builds southward into central Texas. Wind gusts may
approach 30 mph at times, especially closer to the coast.
Otherwise, VFR flight categories are expected the next 24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 415 AM CDT Tue Oct 24 2017/

SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday): Satellite imagery early this
morning shows a few patches of clouds in the mid valley and
Ranchlands, but most areas will remain clear with cool
temperatures dropping into the lower 60s just before sunrise.
Light E/ENE winds will shift to the north and increase this
afternoon as stronger high pressure quickly moves southward into
central Texas by this evening. Winds may gust to 25 mph at times,
especially along and east of Highway 281/I-69C this afternoon. The
main impacts will be along the coast and over the marine areas
where the strongest winds will be. The rip current risk will
become moderate to high this afternoon as surf conditions quickly
deteriorate along the lower Texas coast.

Additional dry air will continue to surge southward across Deep
South Texas with Precipitable Water values dropping well below an
inch to near record lows on Wednesday, therefore precipitation
chances are near zero through the entire short term period.
Temperatures this afternoon will likely still reach the mid to upper
80s, but CAA and much lower dew points will result in lows in the
upper 40s to mid 50s tonight as high pressure settles over South
Texas. Sunny skies will continue on Wednesday with highs reaching
the lower 80s.

LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday): 500mb ridge across
southwest Texas Wednesday will move eastward across the Gulf of
Mexico Thursday as a 500mb trough develops across the central
United States. Low to mid level moisture will remain limited
across south TX Wed night through Thurs night. A strong cold
front will move through south TX Fri morning and some moisture
will pool along and ahead of the front as it moves through the CWA
Fri afternoon but rain chances will be confined mainly across the
coastal sections Fri afternoon into Fri evening. Surface high
pressure will build into the Rio Grande valley Saturday in the
wake of the front. Near normal temperatures Thursday and Friday
will become below normal Saturday and continue Sunday as cooler
and drier air advects into the area Fri night into Saturday.
Temperatures will gradually warm to near normal towards the end of
forecast period as surface high pressure across the area Sunday
moves eastward Monday.

MARINE (Today through Wednesday): Marine conditions will quickly
deteriorate later this morning and afternoon as stronger north
winds move over the coastal waters today. Winds will increase to
20 to 25 knots across the Gulf and Laguna Madre with seas building
to 6 to 9 feet over the offshore waters by this evening. A Small
Craft Advisory is in effect starting at 7 AM CDT and last through
at least the afternoon. Conditions should begin to improve by
Wednesday evening as the pressure gradient relaxes.

Wednesday night through Saturday...light southeast winds will
prevail across the coastal waters Wed night with surface high
pressure across the Gulf of Mexico and low pressure across the
north central United States. Winds will veer to the south and
increase Thursday as the pressure gradient increases across the
lower Texas coast. Moderate to strong south winds will develop
across the coastal waters Thurs night and small craft advisories
will likely be needed for the offshore waters. Winds will diminish
Friday as a strong cold front approaches the coastal waters. Light
south winds Fri afternoon will shift to the north and increase
with gusts to near gale force possible Fri night. Strong north
winds Fri night will continue across the western Gulf through Sat
afternoon. Small craft advisories will be needed for the coastal
waters Friday through Saturday with a possible gale watch Fri
night for the offshore waters.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory for winds until 7 PM CDT this evening for
     GMZ130-132-135.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CDT Wednesday for GMZ150-155-170-
     175.

&&

$$

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HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

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