Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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000
FXUS64 KBRO 231129 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
629 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...1500 FT DECK HAS BEEN FLUCTUATING ACROSS THE LOWER
VALLEY THIS MORNING. IFR CONDITIONS FURTHER NORTH HAVE RECENTLY
BEGUN TO SPREAD SOUTH AND MAY REACH KMFE BEFORE MID MORNING. LOWEST
CLOUD DECKS WILL BREAK AFTER SUNRISE AS DRIER AIR ALOFT QUICKLY
MIXES TO THE SFC. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY DUE
TO THE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF AND LOW
PRESSURE MOVING INTO NORTH TEXAS. WINDS WILL REACH AROUND 15KTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOW CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD
TONIGHT WITH A LOWER INVERSION BOTTLING UP THE SFC MOISTURE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

SHORT TERM....SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...GENERALLY
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS DRY AIR ALOFT
KEEPS THINGS STABLE. MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL DECREASE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW AS A LARGE TROUGH SWEEPS BY TO THE NORTH. THIS FEATURE
WILL HAVE MINIMAL EFFECT TO THE REGION...AS DRY AIR REMAINS IN
PLACE...MID LEVEL CAPPING INCREASES...AND SFC FOCUSING MECHANISMS
ARE ABSENT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...REACHING
THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

LONG TERM... /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/ THE WEATHER PATTERN
ACROSS NORTH AMERICA LOOKS TO TRANSITION FROM A PROGRESSIVE WEST
TO EAST TRACK TO A BLOCKING PATTERN WITH A BROAD TROUGH SETTING UP
SHOP OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. BY EARLY TO THE MID WEEK.
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN SLIGHTLY BETTER CONSENSUS WITH THE
PATTERN CHANGE BUT DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN THE SMALLER SCALE
DETAILS. A GENERAL OUTLOOK FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BEGINS WITH A WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS TRANSITIONING INTO BREEZY AND HOT WEATHER FOR
THE WEEKEND. WINDS TO TAPPER OFF MONDAY WITH A CONTINUATION OF HOT
TEMPERATURES AS A DRY LINE SETS UP TO THE WEST. THEN A COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG TROUGH LOWERING
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FOR A DAY OR TWO. NO RAIN IS SEEN AT
THIS TIME AS MOISTURE VALUES DO NOT LOOK SUFFICIENT FOR
PRECIPITATION.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MID LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE
REGION AS UPPER TROUGH LIFTS WELL NORTH OF TEXAS. DISSIPATING
FRONT OVER CENTRAL TEXAS WILL HAVE NO AFFECT ON AREA WEATHER.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE A CONTINUATION OF WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS. WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY UPPER TROUGH DIVES SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND DESERT SOUTHWEST SATURDAY AND TRACKS INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY. EXPECTING S-SW FLOW TO STRENGTHEN WHICH
IN TURN PUSHES TEMPERATURES UPWARD. BREEZY AFTERNOONS WITH MODEL
GUIDANCE PUSHING MAXIMUMS INTO THE UPPER 90S TO THE LOWER 100S
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE RIVER AND UPPER 80S TO MID 90S MID AND
LOWER VALLEY.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BROAD UPPER TROUGH/LOW BEGINS TO SETTLE OVER
MIDWEST AND TENNESSEE VALLEY. GFS IS FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE ECMWF
BUT WITH THE 00Z ECMWF 70-80 DECAMETERS DEEPER...HEIGHTS AND
THICKNESSES ACROSS THE CWA ARE VIRTUALLY THE SAME. GENERAL TRENDS
IS FOR 850-700MB SW-W FLOW TO STRENGTHEN MONDAY. A SURFACE DRY LINE
TRACKS INTO THE WESTERN AND MIDDLE COUNTIES WITH TEMPERATURES TO
INCREASE POSSIBLY TO THE HIGHEST READINGS OF THE SPRING. DEW
POINTS LOWER CONSIDERABLY WITH VERY DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED.
SURFACE WINDS HOWEVER LOOK LIGHT REDUCING ANY FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
AS WILL HEAD INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY A COLD FRONT IS SHOWN
TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION WITH A DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. HEIGHTS
AND THICKNESS LOWER ENOUGH TO PUSH TEMPERATURES TOWARDS NORMAL
TUESDAY.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH THURSDAY...SEAS REMAIN NEARLY FLAT THIS MORNING
AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE HAVE KEPT INFLUENTIAL SFC WINDS NEARLY CALM.
SFC LOW PRESSURE BUILDING INTO NORTH TEXAS TODAY WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE SOUTHERLY WINDS...APPROACHING 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT. THIS WILL SLIGHTLY AFFECT SEAS...BUT SHOULD STAY
BELOW 4 FEET TOMORROW.

THURSDAY NIGHT NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FAVORABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH
FRIDAY AS UPPER RIDGE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF.
STRONG UPPER TROUGH THEN MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY SUNDAY
WITH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS INCREASING NEXT WEEKEND. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES MAY BE NECESSARY AS MODELS INDICATE WINDS STRENGTHEN
AND SEAS BUILDING WITH THE TIGHTER GRADIENT. SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN TAKEN OUT OF THE FORECAST WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE AND NO FOCUS FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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