Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 241711
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service BROWNSVILLE TX
1211 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions will prevail at local TAF sites through
the evening hours. Gusty southeasterly winds are expected this
afternoon as the pressure gradient tightens across the region with
winds slowly subsiding this evening. MVFR ceilings will develop
overnight with ceilings between 1500 and 2500 feet. GFS continues
to indicate IFR ceilings overnight, but confidence is low in that
solution at this time. Patchy MVFR visibilities are possible again
Wednesday morning. Southeasterly winds increase by mid-morning
Wednesday with gusts up to 25 knots possible.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 709 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...Surface troffing over the central portion of the
country will increase the s-se surface winds later today after
sunrise resulting in breezier conditions. This combined with
daytime heating will mix out the low levels of the atms allowing
vfr conditions to prevail through the first half of the current
taf set. NAM Forecast soundings indicate that another low level
moist layer will reform over the RGV from 06-12z Wed morning
allowing for more mvfr ceilings to reform. GFS numerical guidance
wants to take ceilings down to IFR levels tonight while the NAM is
a bit more optimistic keeping overnight ceilings at MVFR levels.
Will opt for the NAM guidance ceilings for tomorrow morning.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 442 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016/

SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday): 500 mb ridging will continue
to dominate the south central plains states through Wed. A strong
500 mb closed low will dig down over the western states. This in
addition to the formation of another mid level closed low over the
upper Midwest will strengthen a series of surface lows over the
central plains states. This will tighten up the pgf over RGV
increasing the s-se surface flow. The 00z BRO sounding shows a more
stable and drier atms in place over the area with a MUCAPE of 2592
j/kg with a PWAT of 1.8 inches. So the persistent mid level ridging
will limit the conv potential through Wed. The NAM tries to bump up
the pops for Wed to around slgt chc while the GFS and ECMWF guidance
holds the pops to the single digits. See no reason why the NAM is
increasing the pops for Wednesday so will go with the single digits
through the short term period.

Mid and High level cld cover yesterday held down the afternoon high
temps a bit. Numerical guidance is holding the temps near
persistence through the short term. Will nudge up the high temps a
few degrees over today and Wed as expect the stronger more southerly
flow may increase the high temps a bit due to more downsloping off
of the higher terrain in NE Mexico.

LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday): Isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms are anticipated throughout the entire
long term forecast period. This convection will be the result of
mid-level disturbances riding over Deep South Texas and the Rio
Grande Valley within a persistent west-southwest to east-northeast
flow. With deep troughiness prevailing over the western United
States, most of the expected convection will likely originate over
the neighboring high terrain of Mexico before advecting into the
BRO CWFA. These showers and thunderstorms will need to be monitored
for strong to severe intensity given similar convective trends over
the past few weeks.

MARINE (Now through Wednesday): Buoy020 reports a SSE wind
around 16 knots with swells around 4 ft with MTRPIL reporting a SE
wind around 7 knots. The pgf will remain moderate to strong over
the bay and gulf waters through Wed which will keep the winds and
seas near SCEC territory.

Wednesday night through Monday: Small Craft Advisory winds and/or
seas continue to be anticipated through a majority of the period
with high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico interacting with low
pressure over the Central Plains and thermal low pressure over
northern Mexico. Marine conditions will gradually improve during
the weekend and by the end of the forecast period, with moderate
winds and seas expected, as the center of surface high pressure
shifts closer to the Lower Texas Coast.

&&

.BRO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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