Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
FXUS61 KCLE 210212
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
911 PM EST Mon Feb 20 2017
A trough of low pressure will move east across the area by
Tuesday afternoon where it will gradually dissipate. High
pressure over the eastern United States will extend back west
over the local area through Wednesday. A series of weak low
pressure systems will move northeast across the central Great
Lakes Wednesday night into Thursday. A weak cold front will sag
south across the area Thursday and become nearly stationary. The
front will move back north of the area Friday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Fair weather will persist through the night with mainly sct to bkn
high clouds across the area. Weak warm air advection will continue
to take place ahead of a surface trough that is expected to move
through the area Tuesday. The gradient between the trough and the
east coast high will tighten up a bit which should cause winds to
start increasing a little toward daybreak. The winds and clouds
should help keep temperatures up during the night so they are not as
cold as last night. Overnight lows will be in the upper 30s to lower
40s for much of the area with some mid 40s in the far south and
west. The lakeshore is already at its lows for the night as a lake
breeze brought upper 30s into this area by early evening.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Broad upper level trough is progged to move east across the area
during the day Tuesday. This trough will reflect a surface trough
that is expected to bring with it a minimal amount of moisture.
Models are hinting at southern system stealing some of the moisture
away from the north. This will make for a tricky forecast in how
high to go with POPs on Tuesday. Model blend suggests leaning
toward a chance POPs all areas except in portions of the east where
some lake enhancement will take place. So will go with likely POPs
in that area for Tuesday afternoon.
Trough begins to dissipate Tuesday night and a return back to fair
weather will take place by Wednesday as high pressure on the east
coast takes over again. A cold front is expected to sag south to
the northern tier of the forecast area by Thursday night and become
nearly stationary. A westerly flow off Lake Erie will drop
temperatures considerably over the northeast snowbelt compared to
the rest of the forecast area Thursday. Eventually flow becomes
easterly by Thursday night pushing the cold lake air back north.
A storm system will approach from the West Thursday night forcing
the stationary front back north as a warm front A fairly strong
push of warm air will take place ahead of the low by Friday.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A panhandle hook is progged to track across the central Great Lakes
by Friday night. The models have been consistent with a deep low
although there is still some disagreement on the exact track.
Nonetheless, a strong cold front will sweep across the forecast area
Friday evening. Will continue to mention thunder and there will
likely be wind. Some wrap around rain and snow showers are possible
Saturday as the upper trough crosses the Great Lakes. The model runs
today are a bit colder and there may be a period of lake
effect/enhanced snow showers later Saturday into early Sunday,
primarily in the snowbelt, but probably nothing too significant.
Temperatures will be near normal Saturday into Sunday but it will
seem cold considering how warm it has been recently, especially on
Saturday with the blustery wind.
The system is progressive and not really a pattern changer. The flow
is progged to be generally zonal early next week with heights
rebounding above normal again.
The models are all over the place as to whether there can be a quick
moving over running short wave on Monday. The ECMWF and Canadian
model are waiting for a somewhat stronger system by Tuesday while
the GFS insists on the Monday over running wave. Will just have
"chance" pops for the time being, slowly ramping up early next week.
.AVIATION /00Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
VFR conditions across NRN Ohio and NWRN PA with high pressure
aloft across the area. As the upper ridge axis shifts east
overnight into Tuesday moisture will begin to slowly increase.
Tuesday morning a warm front will move east across the area
followed by a weak cold front late in the day. Expect CIGS to
lower to between 5 and 10kft during the afternoon from the
northwest with MVFR conditions possible late northwest as the
cold front moves into the region.
OUTLOOK...Non-VFR developing by Tuesday evening continuing
possibly into Wednesday morning. Non-VFR will develop again
Thursday or Thursday night and continue at times through
East winds on Lake Erie will veer to south by Tuesday afternoon
ahead of a weak cold front. Winds will become rather brisk ahead of
the front but a small craft advisory is not expected. Another weak
cold front will drop across the lake on Thursday but winds will
remain rather light.
The big winds are coming late in the week. A deep low pressure
system will cross the central Great Lakes Friday night. Winds will
veer to the east and southeast ahead of the system on Friday with
strong southwest winds behind the associated cold front developing
later Friday night and especially on Saturday. Gale warnings may be
needed by Saturday.