Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 310800
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
400 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND AS AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP
THE EAST COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CURRENTLY THERE ARE JUST A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN END OF
THE AREA. THESE SHOULD BE GONE SHORTLY. CONSIDERED REMOVING ALL
PRECIP MENTION THIS MORNING BUT JUST NOT COMFORTABLE GOING DRY
ACROSS FAR NE OH AND NW PA. SOME ENHANCED CLOUDINESS IS MOVING TOWARD
THOSE AREAS FROM THE NW AND SHOWERS COULD OCCUR AT ABOUT ANYTIME.
HAVE LOWERED POPS TO JUST LOW CHANCE. ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY WILL
HEAD THIS WAY THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD SEE SOME MORE POP UP
STORMS TOWARD EVENING ESPECIALLY ACROSS NW OH. COVERAGE TODAY
SHOULD BE FAIRLY SPARSE AND MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE COMPLETELY
DRY. ALSO EXPECTING A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE TODAY THAN THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD
RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS 3 OR 4 DEGREES WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY.
GUIDANCE TEMPS SEEM REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH PERSISTS OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS. SHORT WAVES ALOFT WILL BRING OCCASIONAL CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. WAS UNABLE TO FIND A DRY PERIOD TILL
SUNDAY NIGHT. UNTIL THEN WILL NEED TO CARRY CHANCE POPS. IT
APPEARS BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL COME SATURDAY AS AN INVERTED
TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION. BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN THE EAST.
INSTABILITY DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE LACKING SO NO SEVERE
WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED. MUCH OF THE DAYTIME HOURS WILL BE DRY WITH
JUST PASSING ROUNDS OF PRECIP. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
RAMP UP THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS CREEPING
INTO THE 60S. THERE SHOULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE
FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SO WILL TRY FOR PARTLY CLOUDY
WORDING. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE A TAD BELOW NORMAL. HAVE
USED A BLEND OF TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SLIDE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
TROUGH ON MONDAY AND PUSH A WEAK FRONT TOWARDS LAKE ERIE. THE 00Z/31
ECMWF SHOWS THE FRONT STALLING NEAR THE LAKE WHILE THE GFS IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING THE FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
EVENING. GIVEN THAT THE ENERGY DRIVING THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS TO THE
NORTH...WOULD THINK THE ECMWF MAY OFFER THE BETTER SOLUTION...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME SCALE. WILL JUST CARRY A LOW POP
ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THEN A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL AREAS ON TUESDAY. BY TUESDAY NIGHT
WE WILL BE WATCHING ENERGY ROUND THE RIDGE TO OUR WEST WITH THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. A WARM FRONT WILL
TRY TO LIFT INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE LOW BUT UNCLEAR AT THIS
TIME IF THE FRONT WILL BE ACTIVE GIVEN THAT IT WILL ONLY BE NEAR
ILLINOIS BY LATE IN THE PERIOD. JUST A 20 POP IN THE GRIDS FOR
WEDNESDAY AT THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT YNG THROUGH 07Z THEN EXPECT
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO SHIFT EAST OF THE TAF SITES. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OVER LAKE ERIE PRIOR TO 12Z...AND INCLUDED A
TEMPO FOR -SHRA FROM 09-13Z. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
AT ERI DURING THIS TIME BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAF AT THIS TIME. AS MID CLOUDS DEPART TO THE EAST...AN AREA OF
STRATUS IS DEVELOPING ACROSS NE OHIO...ALREADY IN THE VICINITY OF
CAK BUT WILL LIKELY FILL IN AT YNG TOO. IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR LIKELY
AT CAK/YNG THROUGH 13Z AND MAY EXPAND WESTWARD TO MFD. SCT-BKN VFR
CU FIELD WILL FILL IN 18-20Z. WINDS WILL BE SW AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR DURING SOME OF THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THERE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A CHANCE OF WATERSPOUTS ON LAKE ERIE THIS
MORNING AS A TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE LAKE. THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT
EAST OF THE LAKE LATER TODAY WITH A WEAK RIDGE BUILDING IN WHICH
SHOULD LESSEN THE CHANCE OF WATERSPOUTS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY BE 10-15 KNOTS TODAY...DROPPING TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS
OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND ON THE LAKE WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WIND AND WAVE
CONDITIONS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC






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