Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 240446
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1146 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY PUSHING A STRONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH A SECOND COLD FRONT ON
TUESDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA AND A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES LATER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WINDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN
AS IT TRACKS NORTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. A WIND
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST LAKESHORE WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN ERIE PA COUNTY NEAR THE LAKESHORE.
THE HRRR SHOWS WINDS PEAKING BY ABOUT 2 AM IN THIS AREA THEN
DECREASING LATE TONIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT PASSES TO THE NORTH. EXPECT
THE STRONG WIND IN THE OTHER ADVISORY AREAS TO BE SOMEWHAT MORE
LOCALIZED WHERE DOWNSLOPING IS ENHANCED OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND SOME HELP FROM SHORELINE CONVERGENCE. WE HAVE ALREADY HAD A
WIND GUST TO 47 MPH AT LPR AND 41 MPH AT MFD. THESE FEW STRAY
GUSTS ABOVE 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT BUT THINKING THEY WILL
STAY LIMITED ENOUGH TO NOT NEED TO EXPAND THE ADVISORY FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

AS FOR THE HIGH WIND WATCH FOR MONDAY...A CORRIDOR OF THE
STRONGEST WINDS IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO BEHIND THE FRONT WHERE GUSTS OF 50-60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.
ELSEWHERE IT LOOKS LIKE THE PEAK GUSTS MAY ONLY OCCUR WITH SHOWERS
SO COULD POSSIBLY BE HANDLED WITH A WIND ADVISORY AND SHORT FUSED CONVECTIVE
PRODUCTS IF NECESSARY. ALWAYS TOUGH THIS TIME OF YEAR TO DECIDE
BETWEEN SVR WARNINGS AND HIGH WIND WARNINGS. FEW CHANGES MADE WITH
THE UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...RAIN SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
AS THE MAIN SHORT WAVE LIFTS OUT. THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST DOWN SLOPE
WIND LESSEN THE RAIN TO SOME EXTENT ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA BUT EVERYONE SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF
RAIN/SHOWERS.

THE LOW LEVEL JET IS PROGGED TO INCREASE DRAMATICALLY TONIGHT...
INCREASING TO 70-80 KNOTS. DOES NOT GET MUCH STRONGER THAN THAT. THE
WARM AIR ALOFT AND THE RAIN SHOULD DO A GOOD JOB AT KEEPING THE
LOWER LAYERS STABLE. THE MIXED LAYER IS PROGGED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY
SHALLOW TONIGHT...ONLY ABOUT 1K. WE CAN PROBABLY KEEP THE SOUTH
DOWN SLOPE WINDS IN CHECK. THAT BEING SAID...WE CAN STILL TAP
30-35 KNOT WINDS EVEN WITH THE STABLE CONDITIONS. CANNOT RULE OUT
THAT ROGUE 40 KNOT GUST SOMEWHERE BUT IN GENERAL WE SHOULD BE ABLE
TO STAY UNDER THE WIND ADVISORY/WARNING CRITERIA TONIGHT. THE
EXCEPTION WOULD BE ALONG THE EAST LAKESHORE FROM EAST OF MENTOR
THROUGH ERIE COUNTY PA. WILL NEED TO HAVE AN ADVISORY THERE
STARTING ABOUT 10 PM. JUST A LITTLE TOO EASY WITH THE DOWN SLOPE
COMPLIMENT TO GET TO 40 KNOTS OR MORE ESPECIALLY IN ERIE COUNTY PA.

TEMPS MAY DROP A FEW DEGREES WITH THE ONSET OF THE RAIN OTHERWISE
WITH THE STRONG SOUTH FLOW AND RISING DEWPOINTS...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE STEADY OR RISE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WIND WILL BE THE CONCERN ON MONDAY. WE START THE DAY WITH A 30-40
KNOTS AT 925 MB AND 60 KNOTS OR MORE AT 850 MB. AS STATED
ABOVE...THE RAIN WILL CREATE A RELATIVELY STABLE SITUATION IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER EARLY ON...BUT THAT WILL ERODE ESPECIALLY WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT. WE TYPICALLY CAN GET 60-70% MIXING IN
THIS TYPE OF SITUATION. THAT WOULD NECESSITATE A WIND ADVISORY...
WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC DESCENT AND LARGE PRESSURE RISES ARRIVING
(+6 TO +8 MB)...A SOUTHWEST WIND DIRECTION IN LINE WITH THE
MOMENTUM AND MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW....LITTLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR
AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A CONVECTIVE LINE OF SHOWERS WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...NOT TOO MENTION A FAVORABLE TIME OF DAY FOR
MAXIMUM MIXING...A WIND WARNING MAY BE NECESSARY. I WOULD FEEL
MORE CERTAIN IF THE COLD ADVECTION WAS STRONGER AND QUICKER. WILL
ISSUE A HIGH WIND WATCH AND KEEP THE OPTIONS OPEN FOR EITHER A
WIND ADVISORY OR A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING.

WARM UNTIL THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY. HIGHS GENERALLY 55 TO
60 AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

SEASONABLY COLDER AIR WILL SWEEP IN BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY NOT DROP OFF TOO QUICKLY ON MONDAY AFTERNOON GIVEN
THE WELL MIXED NATURE OF THE AIR MASS AND THE CHANCE THAT A FEW
PEAKS OF SUNSHINE MIGHT DEVELOP. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT NEAR NORMAL IN
THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S.

THE FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY. NOT MUCH LAKE INFLUENCE
EXCEPT PERHAPS FROM ASHTABULA TO ERIE WHERE SOME SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES MIGHT CLIP THE LAKESHORE. THE STRATOCUMULUS WILL
INCREASE DIURNALLY DURING THE DAY...PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS
IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE WITH A COASTAL LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
WEDNESDAY EVENING...THEN DEEPENING AND TRACKING INTO NEWFOUNDLAND
THANKSGIVING DAY.  TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN LAKES THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.   BEST MOISTURE IN THE WEST SO KEPT LIKELY POPS
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA.  COLDER AIR BEHIND THE CLIPPER DROPS THE
850MB TEMPS OVER LAKE ERIE TO -14C BY THURSDAY EVENING SO LAKE
EFFECT SNOW LIKELY...PRIMARILY IN THE SNOWBELT THURSDAY NIGHT.  HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY CHOCKING OF LINGERING LAKE
EFFECT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE NORTH OVERNIGHT AND AS
THIS HAPPENS THE SHOWERS WILL DECREASE FROM THE SOUTH.  A BREAK
WILL OCCUR IN THE WARM SECTOR ON MONDAY ESPECIALLY OVER NE OH AND
NW PA AND THEN A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH. SOME SHOWERS
AND MAY BE EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY OCCUR WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

GUSTY SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL OCCUR AT TIMES TONIGHT AS THE
LOW MOVES FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN.

ON MONDAY AS THE BAND OF SHOWERS MOVES THROUGH STRONG WINDS WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND BEHIND IT IN THE COLD ADVECTION.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR TUESDAY AND THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY IN SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED LOW WATER ADVISORY BEGINNING MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WATER LEVELS COULD GET AS LOW
AS 4 FEET BELOW LOW WATER DATUM. THE STRONG GALE FORCE SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL CAUSE THIS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ISSUED GALE WARNING FOR LAKE ERIE BEGINNING
MONDAY MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THE OKLAHOMA LOW NORTH
OVER LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT LIFTING A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE LAKE.
BY DAYBREAK THE THE 925MB WINDS INCREASE TO 40-45 KNOTS...NOT SURE
HOW MUCH WILL MIX DOWN IN WAA PATTERN. STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD AND BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT. MODELS MOVE THE
FRONT ACROSS LAKE ERIE DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT 40 KNOT
GALES...BUT 45 KNOT GALES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THIS STRONG
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CREATE A LOW WATER SITUATION FOR THE WESTERN
BASIN. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT GALE FORCE INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST MONDAY FOR OHZ012-089.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     FOR OHZ011>014-020>023-031>033-038-089.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM 10 AM EST MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     FOR OHZ003-006>010-017>019-027>030-036-037-047.
PA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST MONDAY FOR PAZ001-002.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 9 AM MONDAY TO 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ061-
     145>149-165>169.
     LOW WATER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM MONDAY TO 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     LEZ142>144-162>164.
     GALE WARNING FROM 9 AM MONDAY TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     LEZ142>144-162>164.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KEC/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...DJB/KIELTYKA






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