Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 071443
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
943 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DIVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY
EVENING. THE MAIN PIECE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE TO THE EAST COAST
MONDAY NIGHT BUT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTING
SE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL INDUCE AN INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WIND. CLOUD COVER WILL SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
DAY BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. THE
DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BOOST HIGHS INTO
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
CLIPPER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO NORTHERN
OHIO. STILL UNCERTAINTY ABOUT PRECIPITATION TYPE WITH LOWS TONIGHT
HOVERING CLOSE TO FREEZING AND MARGINALLY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT
TO SUPPORT SNOW. AT THIS POINT WILL CONTINUE THE MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. MANY LOCATIONS WILL
WARM ENOUGH ON MONDAY TO CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN FOR A FEW HOURS.
THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH ALL
LOCATIONS CHANGING OVER TO SNOW. SINCE THE MAIN ENERGY IS SHIFTING
TO THE EAST COAST IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW STRONG THE
LIFT WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA. THE BEST JET ENERGY
LOOKS AS IF IT WILL MOVE NEAR OR JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. THIS MAY ALLOW A STEADY LIGHT SNOW TO SPREAD INTO
THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. ELSEWHERE WEAKER
LIFT MAY NOT SUPPORT MUCH MORE THAN FLURRIES AND SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS. THE COLDEST AIR SPREADS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SOME HEAVIER
LAKE EFFECT SNOW. MORE DETAILS ON THIS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

MONDAY WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR HIGHS BUT
BELIEVE THE HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MORNING THEN SLOWLY FALL DURING
THE AFTERNOON. COLDER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS DIPPING
TO THE 20S FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IF SKIES CAN CLEAR ENOUGH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COUNTY WARNING AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT TEMPERATURES MAY DIP TO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER
THE LAST 5 DAYS.  MAJOR RIDGING TAKES PLA.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER
THE LAST 5 DAYS.  MAJOR RIDGING TAKES PLACE IN THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES HELPING TO DEEPEN THE BROAD TROUGH IN THE EAST. ONE CHANGE
WITH THIS MODEL RUN IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MORE PRONOUNCED UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES BY
FRIDAY NIGHT. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS FEATURE WILL CAUSE THE POLAR JET
STREAM TO TAKE A DEEP PLUNGE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
THROUGH MUCH OF THIS EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS RESULTS IN COLD ARCTIC
AIR OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

STRONG COLD POOL OF AIR IS PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTH OUT OF HUDSON BAY
TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. THE COLD POOL WILL MOVE
TO UPSTATE NEW YORK BY SATURDAY AND DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH TO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY SATURDAY NIGHT
AS WELL. THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
IN THE PRIMARY SNOWBELT REGION. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL EXIST
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC COLD
FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.

BIG TALK THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE COLD TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL ONLY
CLIMB INTO THE 20S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT POSSIBLY ONLY TEENS FOR
SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY MID TO HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING EAST AT THIS TIME AND WILL
AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. CEILINGS WILL BE GRADUALLY
LOWERING FROM WEST TO EAST TO MVFR AND THEN IFR POSSIBLY LIFR
BRIEFLY TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY VISIBILITIES. EXPECTING RAIN TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA CHANGING OVER TO SNOW IN THE WEST. WILL KEEP
YOUNGSTOWN AND ERIE DRY THROUGH 12Z TOMORROW MORNING. EXPECTING
PRECIPITATION AFTER THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN SNOW AS A SERIES OF
CLIPPERS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET THROUGH TUESDAY AND THEN WINDS
INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST NORTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AS
COLDEST AIR ARRIVES FOR ICE DEVELOPMENT...WINDS WILL MAKE IT
DIFFICULT TO DEVELOP. NO HEADLINES EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY


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