Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 030124
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
924 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
GRADUALLY DECREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS. OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAINFALL
WILL REMAIN LIMITED AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGIONAL
WEATHER PATTERN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
FINALLY PUTTING SHOWERS TO BED FOR THE NIGHT...WITH LAST REMNANTS
HOLDING ON FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO AS PER LATEST REGIONAL RADAR
MOSAIC.

MUGGY SUMMER AIR MASS IN PLACE BRINGING A REPEAT OF VALLEY FOG
OVERNIGHT...AND MILD MINS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER WITH READINGS
RANGING THROUGH THE 60S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SFC COLD FRONT PUSHING SWD FROM NEW YORK INTO PA ON THURSDAY
SHOULD INITIATE WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION PER MODEL CONSENSUS AS
IT ENCOUNTERS AN UNSEASONABLY WARM/HUMID AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NRN MID ATLC.
CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS HOWEVER IS LOW AS THERE IS STILL SOME
SPREAD NOTED IN QPF DETAILS WHICH APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH
CONVECTIVELY AUGMENTED VORTICITY MAXIMA LOCATED UPSTREAM. WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE 20-30 POPS DURING THE DAY AND DROP MENTION
OVERNIGHT. WE ARE IN THE CLIMO FAVORED FOG SEASON /AUG-SEP/ SO
WITH LGT/VRB WINDS...CLEARING AND RELATIVELY HIGH BLYR MSTR WOULD
ANTICIPATE ANOTHER PERIOD OF FOG THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

DID NOT CHANGE MUCH FOR THIS PERIOD. VERY MINOR CHANGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF THE
PA/MD LINE ON FRIDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL AGAIN
BE POSSIBLE INVOF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO S-CENTRAL PA
BASED ON A BLEND OF SHORT TERM MDL DATA.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL SINK SWD THRU NRN NEW ENGLAND
LATER FRIDAY AND TAKE CONTROL OF THE WX PATTERN INTO THE UPCOMING
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL COOL DOWN A BIT TO END THE WEEK BUT
STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE REGIONAL WX
PATTERN OVER THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
CONTINUATION OF WARMER-THAN-AVG TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH
LOWER HUMIDITY AND LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAINFALL.

IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE STABLE RIDGING PATTERN IN THE EAST MAY
BREAK DOWN DURING THE MIDDLE TO SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE
OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF SHOW A LEAD COLD FRONT WEAKENING AS IT
CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES NEXT TUESDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD
FRONT MAY APPROACH BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF DIMINISHING AS WE
LOSE DAYTIME HEATING. ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO DWINDLE QUICKLY AS
THE SUN GOES DOWN. UNTIL THEN THE TERMINAL THAT SEEMS MOST LIKELY
TO GET HIT IN THE NEXT HOUR IS UNV WHERE BRIEF IFR AND GUSTS TO
30KT WILL BE POSSIBLE. EXPECT RAPID IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR ONCE
THE STORM PASSES BY.

ANOTHER NIGHT OF VALLEY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS IS EXPECTED...FROM
AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS AFTER SUNRISE.

THURSDAY WILL BE ONCE AGAIN MAINLY VFR BUT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BRINGING LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING.

NO REAL CHANGE SEEN IN THE LATE SUMMER WEATHER PATTERN INTO NEXT
WEEK.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-MON...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR WITH A
SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN SPOTS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/MARTIN/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE


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