Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 282218
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
618 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG...MID-SUMMER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR
WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM...WITH MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK REMAINING COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
MID-LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH AXIS /AND ASSOCIATED SECONDARY COLD
FRONT SLIDING SE ACROSS THE REGION SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80/ WILL
BRING NUMEROUS SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THE SHOWERS
WILL BECOME LIGHTER AND MORE ISOLATED NEAR I-80 BETWEEN
22-23Z...BUT CONTINUE ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS UNTIL AROUND
00Z...AND END ABOUT 01-02Z ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. ACROSS
THE NRN MTNS...THERE WILL BE JUST A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS DRIFTING TO
THE SE.

ALTHOUGH THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRAY FLASH OF
LIGHTNING WITH THE BKN LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS MOVING OVER THE LOWER
SUSQ VALLEY...MOST OF THE STRONGER 35-40DBZ CORES WILL BE WELL
BELOW THE -20Z LEVEL...AND WITHIN 5 KFT OF THE ZERO C LEVEL.

CONDITIONS TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY...WITH A FEW SPRINKLES
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NRN AND WESTERN MTNS.

IT WILL FEEL A LITTLE CHILLY WITH MUCH OF THE REGION EXPECTED TO
BOTTOM OUT AROUND 50 OR LOWER. SERN AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID
50S...BUT IT WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY WILL BEGIN A PERIOD OF MINOR SHORTWAVES ROTATING DOWN IN
THE FLOW UNDER THE ANOMALOUSLY DEEP/COLD UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN US. THIS WILL MEAN THAT WE
COULD SEE SOME MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION BUT NO
ORGANIZED PRECIP FOR THE MOST PART.

IT WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE DEEP TROUGH WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEK WITH INDIVIDUAL
IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK SECONDARY COLD
FRONT IS DISPLAYED IN THE GUIDANCE FOR WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD
HELP BRING ABOUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR OVERALL SHOWER
ACTIVITY...OTHERWISE DAYTIME HEATING/INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY
REPRESENT TO MOST FAVORED TIMES FOR A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH
THURSDAY.

THEN THE MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN RETROGRADING THE UPPER
TROUGH...IN THE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIMEFRAME. THIS ALLOWS FOR A
SLIGHT REBOUND IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AND FOR AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE MOVING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. IT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR
A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WITH HUMIDITY RETURNING TO SOMETHING
MORE RECOGNIZABLE FOR THE HEIGHT OF SUMMER.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRES WILL SWING SE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...PRODUCING SCT SHRA AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF VSBY
REDUCTION IN SPOTS. HOWEVER...THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN TONIGHT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE LOW CIGS AT KBFD AND POTENTIALLY KJST...THE
RESULT OF LOW LVL MOISTURE ASCENDING THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE
ALLEGHENY MTNS.

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AFTER 00Z...AS BLYR COOLS/STABILIZES.
HOWEVER...THE THREAT OF LOW CIGS SHOULD PERSIST ALL NIGHT OVR THE
W MTNS. MDL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT EITHER IFR OF LOW MVFR CIGS AT KBFD
AND KJST TONIGHT. FURTHER EAST...DOWNSLOPING NW FLOW SHOULD YIELD
MAINLY VFR CONDS AT KAOO...KUNV AND KIPT. CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS
VERY HIGH AT KMDT AND KLNS.

ANY EARLY LOW CIGS SHOULD MIX OUT SHORTLY AFTER DAWN TUESDAY. FOR
THE REST OF THE DAY...THERE IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDS AND
LIGHT WIND...AS HIGH PRES AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS BUILDS OVR THE
STATE. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL PRODUCE PLENTY OF AFTN CU WITH CIGS
ARND 5KFT.

OUTLOOK...

WED...CIG RESTRICTIONS POSS NW IN SCT SHOWERS.
THU-FRI...ISO SHOWERS NW. NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/RXR
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT/RXR
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...LA CORTE/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/RXR



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