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000
FXUS61 KCTP 200529
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
129 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
A WARM FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY. IT SHOULD SUCCEED IN DOING SO...BRINGING INCREASING WARMTH
AND HUMIDITY TO THE REGION THROUGH MID-WEEK. EXPECT WELL ABOVE
NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL BACK BELOW NORMAL WITH DRIER CONDITIONS BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE PREPONDERANCE OF PARAMETERS PROCEED PER PRE-ESTABLISHED
PROGNOSTICATIONS. PREVIOUS FORECASTS SHALL PREVAIL.

THE REGION REMAINS STRONGLY COOL AIR DAMMED...WITH WIDESPREAD LOW
CLOUDS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND VERY LIGHT RAIN. THIS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THE BLANKET OF CLOUDS AND RELATIVELY HIGH SFC
DEWPOINTS...IN MID 50S TO AROUND 60F WILL KEEP TEMPS 10-15F ABOVE
NORMAL OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE GULF COAST.
500 MB HEIGHTS WILL RISE SLIGHTLY /BY 10-20M/ DURING THE DAY
MONDAY...AS THE MEAN /AND INITIALLY SOUTHERLY/ 925-850 MB FLOW VEERS
AROUND TO THE WSW BY THE MIDDAY HOURS MONDAY.

LINGERING...EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD BE ERODED RATHER
QUICKLY BETWEEN 14-17Z MONDAY...WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES IN MOST
AREAS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DEEP VERTICAL MIXING OF THE WARM
/PLUS 14-15C/ AIR AT 850 MB WILL YIELD ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPS
IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80F.

SOME OF THE DEEPER VALLEYS EAST OF THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS...WHERE THE
GREATEST COMPRESSIONAL WARMING WILL OCCUR VIA AN ORTHOGONAL LLVL WSW
FLOW...COULD SOAR INTO THE LOWERS 80S IF AMPLE CLEARING OCCURS AND
SCTD SHOWERS/TSRA HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 20Z.

POPS FOR SCTD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSRA FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE
JUST UNDER 30 PERCENT ACROSS THE NW ZONES...AND 40-45 PERCENT IN THE
SE.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL FINALLY DISAPPEAR MONDAY NIGHT AS IT
PASSES OVERHEAD. UPSTREAM CONVECTION WILL BE DROPPING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND WILL ONLY PROLONG THE CLOUDY/SHOWERY FORECAST FOR
LATE THIS PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ON TUESDAY...WE SHOULD ENTER THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE STORM
LANGUISHING OVER THE PLAINS/MIDWEST/UPPER LAKES. THE WARM SECTOR
AIR WILL BE QUITE WARM FOR THE TIME OF YEAR...HAVING SPENT PLENTY
OF TIME COOKING OVER THE MS AND OH VALLEYS WITH GOOD GULF INFLOW.
TEMPS THERE RIGHT NOW ARE ABOUT 10F ABOVE AVERAGES. THEREFORE...THE
TEMPS SHOULD ROUND OUT TO 80F OR BETTER IN MANY LOCATIONS TUESDAY.
ALONG WITH THE WARM TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOIST AIR WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE 60S. THIS WARM...MOIST AIR...ALONG WITH A WEAKENING RIDGE
WILL CREATE A GOOD SITUATION FOR SCT AFTN CONVECTION.

THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A RATHER
UNSETTLED PERIOD FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

WE ARE AND WILL REMAIN BASICALLY UNDER A MEAN UPPER RIDGE...BUT
THE PROBLEM WILL BE A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL BE MEANDERING
THROUGH CENTRAL PA FOR MUCH OF THE TIME INTO LATE WEEK. SO WHILE
THERE IS SUPPORT ALOFT FOR ORGANIZED PRECIP...THE SHOWERS WILL BE
TIED TO SMALL SCALE FEATURES THAT WILL BE HARD TO SEE MORE THAN A
DAY OR TWO DOWN THE ROAD. THE LOW LEVEL FORCING AND INCREASING
HUMIDITY/INSTABILITY WILL BRING SEVERAL CHANCES FOR MAINLY DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THE FORECAST HAS A LOT OF REDUNDANCY IN IT...IMPLYING A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF RAIN/STORMS. THE REALITY IS LIKELY TO BE MORE LIKE A
PERIOD OF MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES BUT WITH SUNNY BREAKS DURING THE
DAY...ALONG WITH SHOWERS THAT WILL BE MOST LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. A DIFFUSE FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO PUSH NORTHWARD DURING
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE ON ANY GIVEN DAY
WILL HAVE MUCH TO DO WITH MESOSCALE INFLUENCES FROM ANY CONVECTION
THAT MANAGES TO FORM.

DESPITE AMPLE CLOUD COVER AND THE CHANCES FOR RAIN...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL UNTIL AT LEAST LATE WEEK WHEN GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS WE FINALLY SEE A COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH USHERING IN
MUCH COOLER AIR AND DRIER CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A MOIST SERLY FLOW OFF OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD
STRATUS ACROSS CENTRAL PA LATE THIS EVENING WITH CIGS RANGING
MAINLY BTWN 500 AND 1000 FT. A BIT OF DIURNAL COOLING AND
RESULTING MOISTENING OF BLYR SHOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR
CIGS LATER TONIGHT...ALONG WITH A BIT OF DRIZZLE. NEAR TERM MDL
DATA INDICATING A NEARLY SATURATED SFC-900MB LYR ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT.

SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT IN FLYING CONDS IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY...AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THRU THE AREA AND SFC FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SSW.
MDL SOUNDINGS AND SREF DATA INDICATE PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDS ARE
LIKELY EVERYWHERE BY THE AFTN. HOWEVER...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC OF
AN AFTN TSRA ACROSS THE W MTNS...WHICH COULD PRODUCE A BRIEF
VIS/CIG REDUCTION.

.OUTLOOK...
TUE-THU...LOW CLOUDS/FOG POSS EARLY. SCT PM THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
FRI...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LA CORTE/CERU
AVIATION...FITZGERALD