Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 291202
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
802 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
MOIST EASTERLY FLOW AT LOW LEVELS WILL COMBINE WITH A WEAK
SURFACE LOW RIPPLING EAST ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT TO BRING
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE THROUGH
TODAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRYING WILL MOVE IN FOR SATURDAY BEFORE
MORE RAIN MOVES IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WET WEATHER
COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY EVENING. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS AND RIDGE-SHROUDING FOG WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TODAY AS MOIST...COOL LOW-LEVEL EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW
CONTINUES. MILDER AND MOIST AIR TOPPING THIS SHALLOW COOL LAYER
WITH WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE 3-6 KFT AGL LAYER WAS
RESULTING IN SOME BANDED VERY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ON THE REGIONAL
88D MOSAIC LOOP...WITH GRAVITY WAVE-LIKE APPEARANCE.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE NRN HALF
OF PENN THROUGH THE MID MORNING. FURTHER SOUTH...THE SHALLOW/MOIST
EASTERLY FLOW OFF OF THE ATLANTIC WILL HOLD THE LOW CLOUDS IN AND
LIKELY PRODUCE OCNL DRIZZLE WHERE THE FLOW ASCENDS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE APPALACHIAN MTNS.

EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN BTWN 40-45F INTO LATE THIS MORNING.

FOR LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT A CONTINUATION
OF THE OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WITH THE ADDED LIFT
BENEATH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A POTENT ...MID-UPPER LEVEL JET
MAX (120 KT AT 300 MB) MOVING ESE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. BLENDED
MODEL QPF IS GENERALLY LIGHT FOR THE 12Z FRI-00Z SAT PERIOD WITH
SEVERAL HUNDREDTHS TO SLIGHTLY OVER ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH ACROSS
THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. A COMPACT AREA OF STRONGER LIFT
ALONG THE TRACK OF THE MID/UPPER VORT MAX OVER NRN PENN AND THE
ENDLESS MTNS REGION SHOULD BRING A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF
STEADY...LIGHT TO BRIEFLY MDT RAIN WITH AROUND 0.25 INCH LIKELY
NORTH AND EAST OF KIPT.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL CONTINUE VERY CHILLY FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS
OF APRIL...ONLY IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50F IN MOST PLACES. SOME
LOCATIONS IN SOUTH-CENTRAL PENN AND THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS COULD
REACH THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60F SHOULD THE WARM FRONT BE ABLE TO
CREEP NORTH OF THE MASON/DIXON LINE THIS AFTERNOON AS DEPICTED BY
THE LATEST HRRR. THE MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE 15 TO 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...EXCEPT FOR THE LAURELS WHERE THE HIGHS
COULD BE CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
INVERTED TROUGH AND TODAY`S SFC WAVE AND UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE
SLIDES EAST AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WITH THE MEAN LOW TO
MID LEVEL FLOW VEERING AROUND TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. THE
SOUTHWARD ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR SHOULD BE WEAK...SO PLENTY OF
STRATUS AND STRATO CU CLOUDS SHOULD STICK AROUND ALONG WITH THE
CHC FOR A FEW SHOWERS EARLY ON...THEN PATCHY DRIZZLE BECOMING
LIMITED TO THE HIGH TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN PENN AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MOST OF SAT STILL APPEARS DRY AS THE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE
CANADIAN HIGH REESTABLISHES ITSELF TEMPORARILY. SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL MOVE INTO THE SW PART OF THE CWA LATE...WITH A
STEADY...SOAKING RAIN DEVELOPING FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
AS THE NOSE OF A 2-3 SIGMA SOUTHERLY LLJ AND AREA OF STRONG...NEARLY
4 SIGMA 850 MB MOISTURE FLUX SLIDES INTO SOUTHERN PENN. PLACEMENT
OF THE STRONGEST LLVL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND DEEP MESO SCALE
LIFT VARIES A BIT FROM MODEL-MODEL AND ACROSS VARIOUS EFS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR AOA 0.50 INCH OF RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PENN BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING. NUMEROUS EFS
PLUMES INDICATE THAT OVER 0.60 IS LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS OR EVEN A FEW-SVRL HOUR PERIOD OF
STEADIER RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH A 1010MB WAVE OF SFC LOW PRESSURE
MOVING UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.

MOST OF CENTRAL AND NRN PENN STAYS WELL BELOW NORMAL IN THE TEMP
DEPT FOR SAT AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER...EXTREME SOUTHERN PENN COULD
NOSE INTO THE L-M 60S SUNDAY AS THE SFC LOW AND ASSOC WARM FRONT
MOVES VERY CLOSE TO, OR NORTH OF THE MASON/DIXON LINE LATE IN THE
DAY SUNDAY.

LOOKING AT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR TUE AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.

PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS FOR LATER WED INTO THU...AS A RATHER
DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA.

WHILE THE 12Z EC NOT AS COLD ON DAY 10 AS THE 12Z EC RUN
YESTERDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE AT
TIMES DURING THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. A LOT OF SPREAD IN
GUIDANCE...GIVEN SPLIT FLOW.

DID NOT MAKE A LOT OF CHANGES TO THE PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS CONTINUE AT BFD...JST AND AOO AS LOW STRATOCU
IS ENHANCED BY MOIST LOW LEVEL AS A EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH
ONLY SLOW IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY OR EVENING TODAY. ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON WILL SWING THROUGH THE
REGION...EXITING BETWEEN 00Z TO 04Z. ANY RAIN WILL ONLY ENHANCE
CIGS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. VSBYS AND CIGS WILL SLOWLY
IMPROVE INTO SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...SUB-VFR WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON.

SUN-MON...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN.

TUE...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER



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