Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000
FXUS61 KCTP 301633
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1133 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A NEW ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO POUR INTO THE REGION IN THE
WAKE OF OUR DEPARTING COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST OF
THE REGION LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...AND A STORM SYSTEM WILL
SPREAD SNOW INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER SURGE OF
COLD AIR WILL FOLLOW INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

THE COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED THE EASTERN ZONES AND ARCTIC AIR IS
BEGINNING TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. THE RAP SHOWS THE CORE OF LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR ENTERING WESTERN PA SO TEMPS WHICH ARE STILL
RELATIVELY MILD OVER ABOUT THE EASTERN 1/2 OR SO OF MY FCST
AREA...WILL LEVEL OFF AND EVEN BEGIN FALLING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS.

THE REMAINDER OF TODAY WILL BE BLUSTERY AND COLDER DAY AS ARCTIC
AIR SPILLS INTO THE REGION. MOST OF THE LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS
WILL FAVOR THE USUAL WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH
CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS SEEING JUST A SMALL CHANCE OF A BRIEF
SNOW SHOWER OR PASSING FLURRY.

WIND CHILLS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 15 BELOW ZERO OVER WESTERN
HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY LATE IN THE DAY IN THE GUSTY WINDS BEHIND
THE DEPARTING FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
COLLABORATED A MARGINAL WIND ADVISORY FOR THE LOWER SUSQ
(ADAMS...LANCASTER AND YORK COUNTIES) FOR LATE TODAY THROUGH EARLY
SAT MORNING...MAINLY FOR HIGHER ELEVATION WIND GUST POTENTIAL. OF
MORE SIGNIFICANCE ARE WIND CHILLS DROPPING TO 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING TO THE WEST AND NORTH.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING...SATURDAY LOOKS SUNNY BUT ON THE
COLD SIDE. WINDS WILL HAVE DECREASED BY EARLY TO MID MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOME CHC OF SOME LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...WITH COLD FRONT DROPPING SE. HAVE LOW CHC
IN EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS THE FAR WEST.

CONSENSUS BUILDING FOR A MODERATE SNOWSTORM TO AFFECT MUCH OF
CENTRAL PA SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. TOUCHED UP QPF
AND SNOWFALL GRIDS FOR THAT TIMEFRAME...INDICATING AT LEAST
ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWFALL. CONSENSUS OF 00Z MODEL SUITE IS FOR
CENTRAL PA TO BE IN THE SWEET SPOT...AND IT APPEARS THAT WARNING
CRITERIA SNOWFALL IS AN INCREASING THREAT GIVEN LATEST GUIDANCE
TRENDS. STILL TOO EARLY FOR HEADLINE ISSUANCES FOR FOR A 5TH
PERIOD AND BEYOND EVENT.

ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE PLAINS.

MODELS HINT AT ANOTHER LOW TRACKING NEAR THE AREA ON WED.
HAVE LOW END POPS FOR SNOW. MORE COLD AIR BEHIND THAT SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

PREDOMINANTLY IFR AT BFD AND JST WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON
AS POST FRONTAL SNOW BANDS CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE HIGH TERRAIN
TERMINALS OF THE WEST AND NORTH. THROUGH THE CENTRAL AREAS THE
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE AS THE DAY CONTINUES BEFORE
BECOMING VFR BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN
TERMINALS WILL BE MAINLY VFR WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF REDUCTION IN A
PASSING SNOW SHOWER.

GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...BEFORE WEAKENING
AFTER DARK.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...VFR.

SUN...WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR DEVELOPING ASSOCIATED WITH A STORM
MOVING TOWARD THE REGION.

MON...REDUCED CONDS EARLY...IMPROVING AS THE STORM MOVES AWAY FROM
THE AREA.

TUE...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024-033-037-041-042-
045-046-049-051>053-058.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY
FOR PAZ064>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/MARTIN
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER


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