Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA
FXUS61 KCTP 171951
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
251 PM EST Tue Jan 17 2017
A warm front will lift across the region this evening followed by
a cold frontal passage late tonight and early Wednesday. High
pressure will follow and bring mainly dry conditions with
temperatures several degrees above normal from the middle of the
week into the weekend.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
52F and balmy at Somerset at this hour...while areas east of the
Allegheny Plateau are stuck in soupy upper 30s with fog and
dankness. Doubt much of the east will improve much before cold
fropa late tonight scours out the moThe Wednesday morning
stratus/stratocu layer will gradually dissipate during the mid to
late afternoon hours, as a secondary cfront pushes through and is
followed by enhanced deep- layer subsidence and drying, with only
slightly cooler air in its wake.ist stable air trapped near
the surface. Winds gradually turn westerly behind the system early
Wednesday as flow turns more zonal, but no polar air masses in
sight so air is barely cold enough to produce a flurry on the
trough`s backside. Low stratus and strato cu will combine with the
westerly flow of the shallow cooler air to produce some light
drizzle (across mainly the west-facing slopes and ridgetops of the
Alleghenies) and also areas of ridge- top shrouding fog.
Low temps early Wednesday will range from the mid 30s acrs the
northern mountains, to the lower 40s in the south.
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
Gradual improvement is expected as the Wednesday wears on...but
it will be a slow process as 5h low drops ESE to the Del Marva by
afternoon...helping a secondary front drop across the area to
signal improvement in the afternoon. Skies will be mostly cloudy
throughout with some brightening mid to late afternoon south
central and southeast. Highs will range from the upper 30s north
to around 50F southeast.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Ridge re-establishes itself over the eastern U.S. for late in the
week, as mild SW flow persists over the midwest. Guidance suggests
energy will dive south along the west coast eventually helping to
strengthen the building upper ridge over the east. We`ll be on the
eastern side of this, so subtle shortwaves sliding into the
Midwest will bring varying amounts of cloudiness to the west (less
in the east) with low end chances for light showers.
Another wave approaches/lifts into the OH valley late next weekend
into next Monday. Again, temps could be marginal at the start
of pcpn overnight Sunday for some ice or snow, but the bulk of
pcpn looks to be rain at this point.
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Widespread MVFR to IFR conditions expected through tonight with
periods of rain becoming more showery into Wednesday morning.
Pockets of -fzra remain possible across the northern airspace thru
15z but marginal surface temperatures should limit icing impact.
Wed...MVFR/IFR west; MVFR to VFR central-southeast. Rain showers
west ending Wed ngt.
Thu...No sig wx.
Fri...Sub-VFR possible with rain moving SW-NE.
Sat...No sig wx.
Sun...No sig wx.