Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 301826
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
226 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AHEAD OF A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM CANADA. THE FRONT WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY COOLER
WEATHER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

RADAR SCREEN LOOKS LIKE IT HAS A RASH AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON. SMALL
CELLS ARE MOVING GENERALLY NE AND AS YET FEW HAVE ATTAINED MUCH IN
THE WAY OF VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT...BUT THUNDER HAS BEEN IN OBSERVED
IN A COUPLE OF LOCATIONS.

MESO ANAL SHOWS MIXED LAYER CAPES AROUND 1000-1500J IN THE HIGH
PWAT AIR. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOTHING TO BRAG ABOUT AND
SHEAR OVER ALL BUT THE NWRN PART OF THE AREA IS MODEST AT BEST.

HAVE BASICALLY FASHIONED THE NEAR TERM POPS TO THE HIGH RES
MODELS OUTPUT SUGGESTING BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN/THUNDER BEING OVER
MY NWRN ZONES...WITH THE SMALLEST CHANCES BEING SE.

HIGH CAPE LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FAVORS PULSE TYPE DOWNPOURS AND
POSSIBLE LOCALIZED DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS. SPC PAINTED MUCH OF PA IN
A MARGINAL RISK FOR SVR LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING.

WITH THE COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTH OVERNIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
LIKELY TO CONTINUE..ESPECIALLY FROM CENTRAL AREAS NORTHWARD
MATCHING THE FORECAST POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY.

IT WILL REMAIN RATHER SULTRY OVER SOUTHERN AREAS WITH NORTHERN
LOCATIONS COLLING TO THE UPPER 50S BY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...

SUNDAY COULD VERY WELL BE A TALE OF TWO AIRMASSES WITH AN
UNSEASONABLY STRONG FRONT EXPECTED TO BE DRAPED SOMEWHERE OVER
CENTRAL PA...WITH MUCH COOLER AIR SEEPING INTO NRN PA FROM CANADA
AND NY...WHILE THE DEEP TROPICAL AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS.

THIS WILL CHALLENGE THE HIGH TEMP FORECAST. IF THE FRONT IS SLOWER
THAN EXPECTED...SERN AREAS COULD VERY WELL BE EVEN WARMER THAN THE
LOW TO MID 80S CURRENTLY PREDICTED.

THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THE FRONT COULD ALSO ENHANCE THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING WHICH IS A
SIGNIFICANT STATEMENT GIVEN THAT WE`RE STARTING OUT MUCH DRIER
THAN USUAL TO BEGIN WITH. SO FAR THERE IS NO CONSISTENT
INDICATION OF WHERE THE BEST RAINS MAY FOCUS SO NO FLOOD HEADLINES
ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

SURFACE FRONT IS MADE TO STALL OVER SRN PA WITH A WAVE OR SEVERAL
WAVES RIPPLING ALONG IT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. PERSISTENT FORCING
AND RICH MOISTURE FEED WITH PW IN THE 1.33" TO 1.8" RANGE BRING
THE BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THAT WE`VE SEEN IN QUITE
SOME TIME. STRONGER 0-1KM SW TO SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 850 MB AND
WINDS WITH A VEERING PROFILE WILL COMBINE WITH QUITE LOW LCLS TO
ENHANCE SPC/S MARGINAL SVR WEATHER THREAT.

TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT...GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT ON
COOLING THINGS DOWN ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PA...WITH EVEN SOME
SIGNIFICANT DRYING POSSIBLE AS DEWPOINTS POTENTIALLY DROP INTO THE
40S. TOO EARLY TO GET HUNG UP ON THE DETAILS AS THEY WILL
CHANGE...BUT AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...A COUPLE DAYS OF
CLOUDY...COOL AND SHOWERY WX APPEARS ON TAP FOR CENTRAL PA WITH
THE STALLED FRONT AND FREQUENT SHOWERS AND CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS.

A SLOW DRYING TREND BEGINS BY TUESDAY AS RICH PW PLUME SHIFTS
OFFSHORE AND SEVERAL DAYS OF COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY
LEVELS AND LOWER POPS APPEAR TO BE IN THE OFFING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ALL TERMINALS ARE VFR. THE RADAR HAS BECOME ACTIVE WITH NUMEROUS
SMALL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WHICH LACK ANY PARTICULAR
ORGANIZATION. EXPECT LOCALIZED RESTRICTIONS AS THE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING.

A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH INTO NORTHERN PA
OVERNIGHT...LIKELY BRINGING WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS NORTH
OF THE FRONT WITH CONTINUED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...THAT WILL
LAST AT LEAST INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SOUTH- CENTRAL AREAS WILL
LIKELY SEE VARIABLE CONDITIONS ALSO WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

OUTLOOK...

MON...MVFR/IFR WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

TUE-THU...AREAS OF MVFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...ROSS/DEVOIR
AVIATION...LA CORTE


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