Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 052311
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
711 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST OF THE REGION
TONIGHT. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL MOVE BACK INTO
PENNSYLVANIA EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK...BRINGING SEVERAL CHANCES
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
SATL AND REGIONAL RADAR LOOPS SHOW UPPER LOW OVR EASTERN KY EARLY
THIS EVENING. MUCH OF THE CONVECTION ASSOC WITH THIS FEATURE IS
DIURNALLY-DRIVEN AND SHOULD DISSIPATE AS IT APPROACHES SOUTHERN PA
LATER THIS EVENING. WILL CARRY LOW CHC OF SHOWERS THRU MIDNIGHT
ACROSS ONLY SOMERSET/BEDFORD/FULTON COUNTIES. SITUATION CHANGES
LATE TONIGHT...AS LL JET AND ASSOC PLUME OF ANOMALOUS PWATS LIFT
INTO SOUTHWEST PA. WILL RAMP POPS UPWARD TO NR 70 PCT BTWN 06Z-12Z
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AS THIS FEATURE MOVES IN.

CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE TN
VALLEY UPPER LOW/SHORTWAVE THAT WILL BE OPENING UP AND SLIDING
INTO THE AREA. THE INCREASING CLOUDS...COMBINED WITH RISING
DWPTS...WILL RESULT IN A MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE
60S...TO NR 70F ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO OPEN UP AND SWING INTO THE REGION
MONDAY. PWATS WILL INCREASE AS DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES. ENSEMBLES SHOW A 20-35 KT SSE LOW LEVEL JET WHICH FOR
JULY REGISTERS AS SOME 1-3 STD DEG ABOVE NORMAL.

THE CHANCES FOR RAIN MONDAY WILL BE ON THE RISE AS
MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND FORCING INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE
SHEARING OUT UPPER TROUGH.

SHOWERS WILL BECOME LIKELY DURING THE DAY. I LEANED CLOSER TO SREF
AND GEFS POPS WHICH HAVE THE HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF MOST AREAS
GETTING WET DURING THE DAY. QPF OF A 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH ON AVERAGE
SEEMS REASONABLE.

CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES TO WITHIN A COUPLE OF
DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE HEART OF A VERY WARM AND MUGGY AIRMASS WILL BE OVER THE STATE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH MAINLY RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS BETWEEN
04-20Z TUESDAY. LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL FORM INVOF A LEE TROUGH...AND IN ADVANCE OF A SFC
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

MUCH OF THE ENERGY PUSHING THIS FRONT EASTWARD APPEARS THAT IT/LL
BE SHEARING OFF TO THE ENE ACROSS SRN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. STILL A
CLOSE CALL ENOUGH CALL FOR ADEQUATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR TO BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND ISOLATED STRONG TO POSSIBLY SVR TSRA
/MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST/ LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

LOW TEMPS EARLY TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE L-M 60S ACROSS THE
MTNS...AND UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70F ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SE
ZONES. HIGHS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 80S.

UPPER FLOW BECOMES FAIRLY ZONAL FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD
AND A WEAKENING CFRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD SAG JUST TO THE SOUTH OF
THE MASON DIXON LINE...WITH WEAK SFC RIDGING OVER THE STATE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS MOVING
QUICKLY EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY IN FAST MID-UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY
FLOW WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT TO TIME AND NOT WORTH ASSIGNING ANY
MORE THAN 30-40 PERCENT POPS AT THIS POINT.

TEMPS AND SFC DEWPOINTS WILL TREND DOWN TO NEAR...OR JUST SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS SOUTH OF JST...IN WV AND MD...BUT LEFT
THEM OUT OF THE JST TAF ON THE 21Z TAF UPDATE. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR.

FOR 00Z TAFS...MAIN SITES FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WILL BE JST
AND AOO.

MAIN THING OVERNIGHT WILL BE FOG.

EXPECT SOME SHOWERS ON MONDAY...MAY TAKE SOME TIME TO REACH
IPT...MDT...AND LNS.

YESTERDAY IT LOOKED LIKE LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUE WOULD BE
WET. NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THINGS ARE A FEW HOURS FASTER.

A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE TN VALLEY TONIGHT
INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BEFORE SHEARING OUT OVER THE NRN MID
ATLANTIC MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. AN INCREASINGLY MOIST SOUTH TO
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING WIDESPREAD MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS INTO THE AIRSPACE
STARTING LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

A COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
THE AREA ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT IS FCST TO STALL OUT
NEAR THE PA/MD BORDER WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL
OPPORTUNITIES FOR PCPN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WED...MOST AREAS DRY...BUT STILL SOME RISK OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS...MAINLY NEAR THE MD BORDER.
THU-FRI...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF SHOWERS/PM TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE/MARTIN


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