Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 280142
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
842 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE
SHOWERS WILL BECOME MIXED WITH A LITTLE SNOW ACROSS THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS BY SUNDAY MORNING. COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
FILTER INTO THE AREA NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING BACK TO
SEASONAL NORMALS...WHICH WILL FEEL QUITE COLD CONSIDERING HOW WARM
IT HAS BEEN RECENTLY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE MOVED FROM OH INTO NE PA AHEAD OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MOVIE INTO THE NW
MOUNTAINS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND SLOWLY SLIDE EAST AS THE
FRONT GRADUALLY WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE CENTER OF THE STATE BY
SUNRISE. THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL PASS WELL TO THE NORTH
OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND THE GOOD FORCING WILL ALSO BE WELL TO THE
NORTH. WITH TEMPS INTO THE 50S SATURDAY...850 TEMPS DO NOT COOL TO
0 UNTIL AFT 09Z IN THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT. RAIN SHOWERS WILL
BEGIN TO MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW. QPF WILL AMOUNTS REMAIN
LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
RAIN/SHOWERS ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL FINISH
SPREADING SE TO COVER THE REST OF THE AREA IN THE MORNING.
FORECAST VERY CONSISTENT AND PERSISTENT...WITH THE CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW ACROSS THE NW OCCURRING IN THE MORNING. DAYLIGHT AND THE
TAPERING OF THE PRECIP BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE MORNING WILL
MAKE IT VERY DIFFICULT FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN AN INCH TO LAY DOWN
WHERE IT DOES SNOW. THE SERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL NOT SEE ANY
FLAKES AT ALL. FINAL QPF IS WELL UNDER A HALF OF AN INCH. THE
FRONT DRAGS IT/S FEET WITH NO REAL UPPER TROUGHING TO OUR
WEST...IT WILL BE MORE ZONAL FLOW AT THE BOTTOM AT THE BASE OF A
BROAD TROUGH. BUT THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE SERN COS BY SUNSET.
WILL GO FOR HIGH POPS AT FIRST...AND SHRINK THEM FROM NW-S FROM
LATE MORNING TO THE EVENING. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE HOLDS JUST A BIT
OF LIGHT RAIN ALONG/SOUTH OF THE TURNPIKE AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD. ALSO...BY THEN...ANY PRECIP WILL LIKELY BE A MIX OR JUST
SNOW IN THE LAURELS. BUT THE LOW QPF MEANS LITTLE OR NO ACCUMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTH ALONG THE
FRONT AS IT PUSHES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY. THERE ARE
STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN REGARDS TO TIMING AND PLACEMENT
OF THE FRONT AS THE WAVE MOVES UP...BUT AT THIS POINT MOST
GUIDANCE PLACES THE FRONT FAR ENOUGH TO OUR SOUTH THAT THE WAVE
WILL BRING ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIP TO OUR
SOUTHERNMOST ZONES IF ANYTHING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTY BY MIDWEEK
AND SLOWLY DRIFT OFF THE EAST COAST BY THE END OF THE
WORKWEEK...BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER TO THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...WAVES OF COLDER AIR DIVING DOWN FROM THE
NORTH WILL HELP TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NORMAL FOR THE LAST WEEK
OF DECEMBER. COOLER AIR AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN
SINGLE DIGIT WIND CHILLS OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE
CWA AS WE RING IN THE NEW YEAR.

GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE ORGANIZED WEATHER
SYSTEM DEVELOPING NEXT WEEKEND...HOWEVER THERE IS STILL MUCH
UNCERTAINTY GIVEN THAT THIS SYSTEM IS STILL A WEEK OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS AND THROUGH THE STATE OVERNIGHT. SFC MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE NIGHT ON SOUTH TO SWRLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. VFR
CONDS AT ALL TAF SITES WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF
THE EVENING. VFR SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL 02-03Z FOR BFD...WHERE THE
SHRA SHOULD REACH FIRST.

RAIN SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO REDUCE
VISBYS AROUND 06Z IN THE MAJORITY OF TERMINALS...BUT HOLD OFF
UNTIL 10-14Z IN THE SE. IFR CIGS/VIS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN
THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT...AND PERHAPS AOO/UNV/IPT. BFD
WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO SEE SNOW MIX IN OR A CHANGE TO ALL SNOW AND
THEREFORE THE ATTENDANT LOWER VISBYS AROUND SUNRISE/12Z. JST MAY
LOWER TO LIFR AS WELL...MAINLY DUE TO THE PERSISTENT UPSLOPE...BUT
ALSO IF THE PRECIP TURNS TO SNOW THERE IN THE MORNING.

COLD FRONT SHOULD BE THRU HALF OF THE REGION BY 12Z...BUT IT WILL
TAKE THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT FOR IT TO CLEAR THE SE. LOWER CLOUDS
WILL HANG ON THROUGH THE AFTN...BUT VFR MAY RETURN BY 00Z/29TH -
IN THE NORTH FIRST THEN CLEARING SPREADS TO THE SOUTH AS THE FRONT
PRESSES SLOWLY SOUTH THRU THE MID-ATLANTIC - EVENTUALLY STALLING
OUT THERE.

OUTLOOK...

MON-THU...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...WATSON
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...ROSS/HAGNER
AVIATION...DANGELO/GARTNER


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