Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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836
FXUS63 KEAX 141113
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
513 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 512 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

Precipitation has expanded across much of west central into central
Missouri this morning, much of which consists of a sleet/freezing
rain mix. While precipitation is quick-moving, freezing rain rates
are high enough to get a quick coating of ice up to 1/8" thick in
less than a half hour. This rapid icing up of roadways is likely to
cause several travel headaches. Therefore expanded the winter weather
advisory for all areas south of I-70 through the morning. While
precipitation should taper off for most of these areas shortly after
sunrise, the advisory will go through noon for now since roads may
remain slick through much of the morning, especially if left
untreated.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 331 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

Watching a couple areas of developing precipitation early this
morning. The first is over Iowa and eastern Nebraska ahead of a
shortwave trough dropping out of the Northern Plains. The second is
across eastern KS into southwest MO ahead of a strong 60-kt low-level
jet. The latter area should continue to expand into west central and
into central Missouri through the morning, where forecast soundings
suggest a mix of sleet and snow, and possibly light freezing rain or
freezing drizzle as well. Given the very dry air just off the ground,
current thinking is that sleet may be the more common precip type
across these areas this morning with only light accumulation.
However, if freezing rain/drizzle starts to dominate then a winter
weather advisory may need to be expanded into areas near and south of
US 50.

Both areas of precipitation should merge and overspread much of
northern, central and eastern Missouri later this morning.
Precipitation across these areas should be mostly snow, with as much
as 1 to 2 inches possible near the US 63 corridor where a winter
weather advisory remains in effect through the afternoon. Warm air
advection later today will allow for a quick warm up with much of
western MO and eastern KS rising into the middle to upper 40s by
afternoon.

The remainder of the forecast looks increasingly spring-like as
ridging to the west gradually makes its way into the center of the
nation by Thursday and Friday. This will allow temperatures to rise
into the 50s Monday through Wednesday, and well into the 60s Thursday
and Friday with a few 70 degree readings not out of the question. The
only mentionable chance for precipitation will arrive with another
weak clipper system Monday night and early Tuesday. Could see some
light snow across north central Missouri with this system and mostly
rain elsewhere.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 512 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

Sleet and freezing rain is spreading into much of western and central
Missouri this morning, but is already moving out of the southern KC
metro. Quick icing is occurring with this activity with 1/8" of ice
possible in less than 30 minutes. This wintry precipitation will
expand further into much of central MO through the morning where it
will mix with more snow than ice. For the KC and STJ areas,
precipitation chances are already pushing east of the area with VFR
expected for the remainder of the period.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for KSZ057-060.

MO...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for MOZ040-043>046-
     053-054.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for MOZ008-
     017-025-033.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Hawblitzel
DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Hawblitzel



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