Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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693
FXUS63 KEAX 302326
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
626 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 336 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016

Short Term (Tonight - Thursday night):

Scattered thunderstorms this afternoon are developing across the
southern CWA where weak convergence along a 850mb boundary exists and
across the northern CWA out ahead of a surface cold front sagging
across central Iowa. These storms are expected to be diurnally
driven and will diminish just after sunset. Tonight, there are two
features of interest that will provide the chance for precipitation
across the western CWA during the early morning hours. The first is
an upper level trough that will digging across the Upper Midwest into
the central Plains. The second feature is a shortwave rounding the
ridge from the southwestern CONUS to the central Plains. These two
features will be the catalyst for thunderstorm development across
Kansas tonight. Short-range hi-res models develop a couple clusters
or perhaps an MCS across central Kansas tonight. These storms would
then role ESE into the area during the early morning hours.
Consequently, have high-end chance and likely PoPs in for the early
to mid morning hours tomorrow. Tomorrow during the day the upper
level trough moving across the Upper Midwest will force the
aforementioned cold front across Iowa into the area. Thunderstorms
will be possible tomorrow afternoon along the I-70 corridor
southward. The northern CWA will look to dry out as surface high
pressure quickly builds into the area tomorrow afternoon. Highs
tomorrow will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Tomorrow night,
surface high pressure will continue to build into the area as the
cold front shifts south of the forecast area. Expect a very pleasant
night with low temperatures falling into the mid 50s to lower 60s.
High pressure will remain in control Thursday and Thursday night
with dry conditions and highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s and lows
in the mid to upper 50s.

Extended Term (Friday - Tuesday):

Dry conditions will prevail through the first half of the extended
forecast as high pressure will remain in control on Friday with
highs in the mid 70s to near 80. Saturday, the surface high will
finally shift to the east and WAA will get underway. Highs will rise
a degree or two into the upper 70s to lower 80s. Saturday
night/Sunday a upper level trough will move across the Canadian
Plains and force a cold front into the western Plains. This front
will sag towards the northern part of the CWA bringing the chance
for thunderstorms across the northern CWA Saturday night into
Sunday. As we move into the beginning of next week, upper level
ridging will reside over the southeastern CONUS while several
shortwaves move across the northern Plains. These shortwave will
attempt to push the cold front towards our area early in the week
while the ridge tries to keep it north, and consequently, the
precipitation north of the area. With uncertainty through this
timeframe have kept the slight chance to chance POPs inherited by
the initialization.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 624 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016

Low confidence on convection affecting terminals this evening, but
short range convective allowing models indicate enough of a signal to
warrant at least a mention of low end chances for thunderstorms at
the terminals for a few hours tonight. Will monitor and make changes
or add confidence with TSRA groups should storms form near the
terminals. Thereafter expect a brief period of IFR CIGs with some
reduced VIS as early in the morning, with skies clearing out by the
late morning to early afternoon.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Discussion...73
Aviation...Leighton



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