Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 161146
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
646 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION...
ISOLD SHRA WILL BECOME SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT THE TAF SITES...HAVE TEMPOS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING BETWEEN 16/18Z-17/04Z AND VCSH
OVERNIGHT AFTER 17/06Z AND THEN PREVAILING SHRA WEDNESDAY
MORNING AFTER 17/12Z. VFR SKIES PREVAIL TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.
EXCEPT BRIEF MVFR CIGS EARLY THIS MORNING AND WITH ISOLD TO SCT
SHRA. INCREASING MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. ELY WINDS 10 KTS WILL PREVAIL...EXCEPT SOME GUSTS UP TO
30 KTS IN AND NEAR SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
CURRENT WEATHER MAP IS SHOWING AN UPPER TROF MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST U.S. AND AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS FROM THE GREAT BASIN UP
THROUGH WESTERN CANADA. IN ADDITION TROPICAL STORM ODILE OVER THE
BAJA PENINSULA IS SENDING A TON OF MOISTURE INTO THE DESERT SW AND
MUCH OF TEXAS. CURRENT RADAR IS SHOWING SOME LIGHT ECHOES MOVING
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS...MOVING ALONG THE WESTERLY
MID LEVEL WINDS. WILL KEEP CHC POP UP THROUGH THIS MORNING OVER
THE NORTHERN ZONES ALTHOUGH PRECIP WILL REMAIN VERY LIGHT. PLENTY
OF LOW/MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL KEEP THE AREA MOSTLY CLOUDY/CLOUDY
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

THIS INFLUX OF MOISTURE NOT ONLY FROM ODILE BUT ALSO FROM A SURFACE
TROF OFF THE TEXAS COAST...WILL INCREASE POP OVER MUCH OF THE CWA
FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS AT LEAST. ALREADY COASTAL AREAS ARE SEEING
PREDAWN TROPICAL SHOWERS MOVING AND FORMING INLAND. HIGHEST POP
TODAY (60 PERCENT) WILL BE ALONG THE SE COASTAL
COUNTIES...LOWER CHANCE POP OVER THE FAR WEST. THERE IS NOT A
STRONG UPPER OR LOW LEVEL TRIGGER...SO MAINLY DAYTIME HEATING AND
BOUNDARY DRIVEN CONVECTION IS EXPECTED. SHOULD SEE A DECREASE IN
SH/TS ACTIVITY BY LATE EVENING BUT GIVEN THE HIGH PW VALUES WILL
HAVE TO CARRY AT LEAST SOME POP OVERNIGHT. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH
HIGH RAIN RATES ARE POSSIBLE..NOT ONLY TODAY..BUT FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
FORECAST PW VALUES WILL PEAK OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS...WELL
OVER 2 INCHES. CHANCE POP WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY
FOR MOST AREAS...HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST...LESSER CHANCES AS YOU HEAD TO THE FAR WEST NEAR AND
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. SLOW MOVING STORMS COULD POSE SOME ISOLATED
AND MINOR FLOODING CONCERNS THROUGH MID WEEK. NEWEST ECMWF
GUIDANCE IS PAINTING LIKELY POP EVEN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS
PW REMAINS HIGH. WONT GO THAT HIGH JUST YET BUT SOMETHING TO
WATCH. ANOTHER THING TO WATCH IS A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH OUR
PART OF THE STATE ON SUNDAY. AM CARRYING SLIGHT POP RIGHT
NOW...BUT WEEKEND POP MAY HAVE TO BE INCREASED IF TROPICAL
MOISTURE IS STILL PRESENT BY THE TIME FRONT ARRIVES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              88  74  88  74  87 /  40  20  40  30  50
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  88  72  89  72  87 /  40  20  40  30  50
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     89  73  89  73  88 /  40  20  40  30  50
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            87  73  87  72  87 /  30  20  40  30  50
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           88  75  88  74  89 /  20  20  40  20  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        88  74  87  73  86 /  30  20  40  30  50
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             91  73  91  73  91 /  40  20  40  20  40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        88  73  88  73  87 /  40  20  40  30  50
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   89  74  87  73  86 /  50  30  50  30  50
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       89  76  90  76  89 /  40  20  40  30  50
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           89  75  91  75  91 /  40  30  40  30  50

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...09





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