Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 022223
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
523 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.AVIATION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT AVIATION FORECAST. SHOWERS ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS CURRENTLY WILL DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS
LEAVING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS PRECIP FREE. COUNTING ON LOW CLOUDS
ONCE AGAIN REFORMING BY EARLY MORNING WITH IFR/MVFR MOST
SITES...TURNING TO VFR BY THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL STREAM NORTH FROM DEEP SOUTH TX INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL TX ALONG A MOISTURE AXIS THAT WILL MOVE NORTH TOWARD WEST
CENTRAL TX THIS EVENING. A BRIEF THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH 8 PM...BUT THE EXPANSION OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE FROM THE WEST AND THE WWD EXPANSION OF THE 700 HPA LEVEL
RIDGE FROM THE GULF IS PINCHING AWAY AT AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND
LEADING TO WEAKER AND MORE SHORT-LIVED CELLS. STABILITY SHOULD
TAKE OVER AFTER SUNDOWN. MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE LIKELY TO
BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER OVER THOSE FROM THIS MORNING...SINCE
THERE WAS A DOWNDRAFT MODIFIED SEA-BREEZE THAT COOLED TEMPERATURES
EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING WHICH IS NOT EXPECTED THIS EVENING.
NEVERTHELESS WITH MODEL GUIDANCE LOW LEVEL WIND FORECASTS SHOWING
A DECREASE IN SURFACE WINDS OVER WEDNESDAY...WILL SPLIT BETWEEN
PERSISTENCE AND THE MUCH WARMER BLENDED GUIDANCES.

A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY EARLY
FRIDAY COULD ADD TO SOME MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FROM CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS DRIFTING SOUTH. WILL ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBLE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY OVER SOUTHEAST COUNTIES FRIDAY WHERE A WEAK SEA-BREEZE
PUSH COULD TRIGGER CONVECTION...BUT THE OVERALL PATTERN SHOULD BE
STABLE FOR MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TX.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AIDED BY THE SOUTHWARD MOVING SHORTWAVE COULD
SEND A FEW OUTFLOWS AND MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL TX WHILE LOW LEVEL
GULF MOISTURE REMAINS RICH TO SUPPORT CONVECTION THIS WEEKEND.
THE NRLY FLOW ALOFT PATTERNS ARE OFTEN TRICKY...BUT THE SYNOPTIC
SCALE MODEL AGREEMENT ON A SIGNIFICANT STABILIZING INFLUENCE IN
THE MID LEVELS SHOULD HELP PREVENT THE ESCALATION OF THE
CONVECTION INTO ORGANIZED CLUSTERS. WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SLIGHT
CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS...BUT THE TRENDS APPEAR DOWN FROM
EARLIER PROJECTIONS. DUE TO THE MOISTURE...MOST AREAS WILL SEE A
GENERAL FLAT TREND ON WARMING AND DRYING CONDITIONS OVER THE
WEEKEND. THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER STABILIZE MONDAY AS
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO EXPAND EAST. THE WARMING
TREND...ALREADY SLOWLY UNDERWAY OVER WESTERN COUNTIES...WILL THEN
EXPAND EAST TO THE REST OF OUR AREA BY MONDAY. THE ABOVE NORMAL
MOISTURE IN THE SOILS AND VEGETATION SHOULD KEEP MOST AREAS IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S THROUGH THE EXTENDED...BUT THE SLIGHTLY MORE ARID
AREAS TO THE WEST COULD FLIRT WITH TRIPLE DIGITS POSSIBLY AS EARLY
AS MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              75  91  75  91  76 /  -   10   0  20  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  73  90  74  91  75 /  -   10   0  20  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     72  90  74  90  75 /  10  10   0  20  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            72  90  73  90  74 /  10  10  -   20  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           75  92  75  93  76 /   0  10   0  10  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        74  90  74  91  75 /  -   10   0  20  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             73  91  74  91  75 /  10  -    0  20  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  90  74  90  75 /  -   10   0  20  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   74  92  75  90  76 /  -   20  -   30  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       75  90  75  91  76 /  10  10   0  20  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           74  91  75  91  76 /  10  10   0  20  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...09
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...HAMPSHIRE
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30


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