Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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000
FXUS64 KEWX 220434
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1134 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.AVIATION...
MOIST RETURN FLOW WILL BRING MVFR CIGS TO THE I-35 SITES FROM
08-16Z...BUT SCATTER OUT QUICKLY AS DAILY MIXING COMMENCES LATE
FRIDAY MORNING. ALL SITES WILL SEE A RETURN TO MODERATELY STRONG
AND GUSTY WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT ABOUT 5KT LOWER THAN TODAY.
EXPECT A REPEAT FRIDAY EVENING WITH GUSTY WINDS...THEN A RETURN OF
MVFR CIGS AFTER 09-10Z IN THE 30-HR EXTENDED TAFS AT KAUS/KSAT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 745 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

UPDATE...
TO REMOVE HEAT ADVISORY.

DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES ARE BEGINNING TO DECREASE AND EVERYWHERE HAS DROPPED
BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THIS EVENING. HAVE REMOVED THE
HEAT ADVISORY HEADLINE FROM THESE COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...HAVE
ADJUSTED HOURLY WEATHER GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

AVIATION...
ISOLD VCSH WILL BE NEAR KDRT THROUGH 02Z...OTHERWISE VFR WITH
GUSTY SURFACE AND LOWER LEVEL WINDS THROUGH 05Z AT ALL SITES.
MOIST RETURN FLOW WILL BRING MVFR CIGS TO THE I-35 SITES FROM
08-15Z...BUT SCATTER OUT QUICKLY AS DAILY MIXING COMMENCES LATE
FRIDAY MORNING. MVFR CIGS SHOULD BE HIGHER AGL AND ONLY FROM
11-16Z FRIDAY AT KDRT. ALL SITES WILL SEE A RETURN TO MODERATELY
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT ABOUT 5KT LOWER
THAN TODAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...HOT AND DRY FORECAST
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE EXPANDING
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. HEAT ADVISORY
VERIFYING IN A FEW SPOTS ALREADY...PEAKING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. WILL ALLOW THE ADVISORY TO CONTINUE THROUGH 7 PM. ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ALSO WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY TO
MID EVENING ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS
PLATEAU. SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR STORMS ACROSS MEXICO TO CLIP FAR
NORTHWEST PORTION OF VAL VERDE COUNTY THROUGH SUNSET.

WINDS REMAINING ELEVATED IN MANY AREAS OVERNIGHT AS 35 KT LLJ
DEVELOPS. THIS WILL KEEP LOWS FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN AREAS AROUND 80 DEGREES AGAIN...AND WITH MAX TEMPS AND
HEAT INDICES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AT OR A DEG WARMER THAN TODAY
ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR SOUTHEAST ZONES.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS WILL
REMAIN HOT AND DRY OVER THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH CARVES OUT ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. EVENTUALLY SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS AND AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE TAKES PLACE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TAIL END OF THE
TROUGH AND ENOUGH MOISTURE POOLING MAY END UP CLOSE ENOUGH
THURSDAY TO PROVIDE POSSIBLY NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS WITH A
CHANCE RAIN. BUT CONFIDENCE ON DAY 7 IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT
INCLUSION IN OFFICIAL FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              79 101  76 100  75 /  -   -   -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  77 101  74 100  73 /  -   -   -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     76 103  74 101  73 /  -   -   -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            76  98  72  97  72 /  -   -   -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           77 100  76 100  77 /  -   -   -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        79  99  74  98  73 /  -   -   -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             75  99  72  98  72 /  -   -   -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        77 101  75  99  74 /  -   -   -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   79 102  77 101  75 /  -   -   -   -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       80 101  77 100  76 /  -   -   -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           78 102  76 101  75 /  -   -   -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...26
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...99




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