Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 182218
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
318 PM MST THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF VERY ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ON FRIDAY. OVER THE WEEKEND...INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST AS A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE AFFECTS THE REGION. FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK...THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE
DECREASE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SO FAR TODAY...THERE HAS BEEN ISOLATED ACTIVITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
YAVAPAI AND SOUTHERN COCONINO COUNTIES. A LITTLE BETTER COVERAGE
IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN GILA COUNTY. THE
DECLINE IN ACTIVITY TODAY CAN BE ATTRIBUTED TO SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
WHATS LEFT OF ODILE...AND AN INTRUSION OF DRY...WARM MID LEVEL AIR
ACROSS THE REGION. FOR TOMORROW...WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A
DEEPENING CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST IS
FORECAST TO CAUSE FURTHER DRYING...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHWESTERN
ZONES...IN THE VICINITY OF THE GRAND CANYON. THIS WILL EQUATE TO
ANOTHER DAY OF RATHER LIMITED CONVECTION.

OVER THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO PUSH
TO THE NORTHEAST AFFECTING NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL CAUSE SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP ON
SATURDAY...RAISING MOISTURE. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED MOISTURE
AND ADDED DYNAMIC LIFT...SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE VIGOROUS
CONVECTION. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN
THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND.

MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WORK WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH AND CONDITIONS WILL DRY LEADING TO
DECREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...EXPECT WIDELY SCT SHRA/TSRA WITH ISOLATED
MVFR CONDITIONS CLOSEST TO THE STRONGER STORMS EARLY THIS
EVENING. THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
YAVAPAI AND GILA COUNTY MOUNTAINS...MOGOLLON RIM...AND WHITE
MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING. THE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO
DIMINISHING BETWEEN 1-3Z FRIDAY. POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT OF WDLY SCT
SHRA/TSRA AFT 19Z FRIDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........RR
AVIATION.......TC

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF




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