Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 181153

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
455 AM MST Mon Dec 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Expect a lingering chance of rain and snow showers over
the southern White Mountains today, with clear skies elsewhere. Dry
and warmer weather is expected Monday and Tuesday, with increasing
winds Wednesday, ahead of a strong cold front due on Thursday.


.DISCUSSION...An upper low near Tucson this morning will slowly
exit Arizona to the east by this evening. The influence of this low
is fading as it weakens, with most shower activity will be confined
to the far southeastern corner of the state. Just enough moisture in
the northern sector of the low may work into the southern White Mtns
and a chance of rain/snow showers will continue in this area for
about 12 hours.

In the wake of the low, s/wv ridging will develop Monday and
Tuesday, leading to dry and warming conditions. A stronger trough
will move through the eastern Great Basin Wednesday and Thursday.
Expect strong winds on Wednesday, with sharply colder temperatures
and a chance of flurries on Thursday. Generally dry and cold
northwest flow then settles in the for the holiday weekend.


.AVIATION...For the 12Z package...Look for VFR conditions over most
of northern Arizona for the next 24 hours. The exception, local
MVFR/IFR conditions in rain and snow showers in the vicinity of the
White Mountains. Otherwise, light winds. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...For today, expect near normal temperatures and
isolated rain and snow showers in the vicinity of the White
Mountains. Winds will be light and variable through Tuesday with
temperatures rising to about 5 degrees above normal.

Wednesday through Friday...Expect above normal temperatures and
gusty southwest winds on Wednesday. On Thursday, A cold front will
bring chances for showers mainly north of Interstate 40 and well
below normal temperatures. Breezy northwest winds setup behind the
front. Cool and dry conditions return Friday






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