Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 012242
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
342 PM MST FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FOR THE REST OF TODAY...EXPECT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH
INCREASING ACTIVITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF YAVAPAI COUNTY. OVER THE
WEEKEND...THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST TO
INCREASE AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS AREA AND
A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS ARIZONA FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SO FAR TODAY...THE BEST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE HAS BEEN OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS OF THE KAIBAB PLATEAU...MOGOLLON
RIM...AND WHITE MOUNTAINS REGION. EXPECT BETTER COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
YAVAPAI COUNTY AS STORMS PROPAGATE TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. THE
PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL BE POSITIONED BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND A TROUGH MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH
WESTERN AZ. THIS WILL LEAD TO A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE
AND WILL RESULT IN A MARKED INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...AS WELL AS COOLER TEMPERATURES.

MONDAY ONWARD...EXPECT DECREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY...AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
BRINGS DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...SCT-NMRS SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL
DIMINISH AFTER 03Z. EXPECT SCT SHRA TO CONTINUE GENERALLY SOUTHWEST
OF A LINE KGCN-KFLG-KSOW TIL 07Z. SCT/NMRS STORMS WILL REDEVELOP
AFTER 18Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........RR
AVIATION.......BAK

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





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