Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 242337

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
435 PM MST TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Expect breezy to windy conditions and below normal
temperatures through the week. A weak low pressure system will bring
a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms to the area by
Wednesday and Thursday.


.DISCUSSION...Some deep mixing developed ahead of an unseasonably
cold low pressure area approaching the SOCAL coastline. Many areas
from Flagstaff eastward had dewpoints plummet into the lower teens
this afternoon, with widespread wind gusts from 30 to 40 mph or
higher. A Red Flag Warning was issued this afternoon for the
eastern zones.

The aforementioned low will slowly move onshore through early
Thursday. Gusty winds will continue again tomorrow and will likely
not decouple in many areas tonight. Slightly colder temperatures and
decreased wind speeds tomorrow should keep most areas below wind and
critical fire weather thresholds. A slight chances of showers
developing in the cold core by Wednesday and Thursday.

This low will move away from the area by Friday, but troughing will
persist off the west coast through the weekend. Expect warming, but
breezy conditions will remain. An actual ridge may develop by the
middle of next week, just in time for June.


.AVIATION...For the 00Z package...Mainly VFR conditions will prevail
over northern Arizona through the forecast period with south to
southwest wind 15-20 knots gusting as high as 35 kts until 03z this
evening. Wind increasing again after 16Z Wednesday. There is a
slight chance of thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon from KGCN
northward. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Gusty winds and dry conditions will persist through
early this evening and a Red Flag Warning has been issued for much
of eastern Arizona until 7PM MST. Winds will start to decrease after
sunset, but many higher elevation areas will not fully decouple. On
Wednesday, there is a chance of showers and thunderstorms for
northwest Coconino County, spreading to most higher elevation areas
Thursday. Breezy winds persist Wednesday, decreasing for Thursday.

Friday through Sunday...The chance of higher elevation showers and
thunderstorms lingers Friday, then drier conditions arrive for the
weekend. Critical fire weather conditions are not expected at this






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