Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 281616
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
916 AM MST TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY RETURN WEST AND NORTH
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH NORMAL MONSOON CONDITIONS RETURNING TO
ALL AREAS BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THIS MORNING`S IR AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WEST OF A LINE FROM PRESCOTT TO WINDOW ROCK.
EAST OF THIS LINE, AN EXTENSIVE DECK OF MOSTLY MID-LEVEL CLOUD
EXISTS. AT THE SURFACE, DEW POINTS ARE UP A BIT ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN ARIZONA AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. DEW POINTS ABOVE 50F
HAVE BEEN MEASURED IN NORTHERN GILA, AND SOUTHERN NAVAJO AND
APACHE COUNTIES. THIS MORNING`S OBSERVED AND FORECAST UPPER AIR
SOUNDINGS FROM NEAR FLAGSTAFF REVEAL ONLY LOW INSTABILITY WILL
DEVELOP THERE TODAY. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AN EXTENSIVE
CUMULUS FIELD OF LITTLE VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT NEAR FLAGSTAFF. TO
THE SOUTHEAST, WHERE BETTER MOISTURE IS IN PLACE, BETTER CHANCES
FOR DEEPER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EXIST.

TODAY`S MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
WILL BE ALONG THE EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM AND IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS
REGION - COINCIDENT WITH THE GREATEST MOISTURE. LOW SHEAR AND WEAK
THUNDERSTORM STEERING FLOW MEANS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS FOR TODAY`S
STORMS WILL BE SMALL HAIL, FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /435 AM MST/...SEVERAL FEATURES NOTED ON THIS
MORNINGS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL COME TOGETHER AND BRING THE
MONSOON BACK TO ARIZONA THIS WEEK. A STRONG UPPER LOW IN EASTERN
MONTANA AND THE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
AWAY FROM THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT
WESTWARD. AT THE SAME TIME...A WEAK UPPER LOW IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH DEEPER MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN
ARIZONA.

EVENTUALLY...INCREASING SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PICK
UP THIS MOISTURE...WITH ADDITIONAL AID FROM OUTFLOWS AND COMPLEX
ACTIVITY...MOVING THE MONSOON BOUNDARY ALL THE WAY INTO ARIZONA BY
THURSDAY. TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE TRANSITIONAL DAYS...WITH THE
BOUNDARY RUNNING FROM ABOUT PHOENIX TO THE FOUR CORNERS TODAY AND
FROM YUMA TO FLAGSTAFF BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THURSDAY ONWARD
WILL FEATURE LOW TO MODERATE GRADE MONSOON ACTIVITY OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...XPCT SCT SHRA/TSRA ACTVTY FROM
KSOW SE THRU 03Z...WITH ISOLD STORM ACTVTY AS FAR NW AS KFLG
TODAY...THEN ISOLD ACTVTY OVERNIGHT FROM I-40 SOUTH. CONDS TO
PRIMARILY REMAIN VFR. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTH AND
WEST ACROSS THE STATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS TODAY WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM. SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SPREADING INTO YAVAPAI AND GILA
COUNTIES. STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR STORMS BOTH
AFTERNOONS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...EXPECT A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMER
MONSOON CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED STORM ACTIVITY EACH DAY. NEAR
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RR/PETERSON
AVIATION...TC
FIRE WEATHER...MCS


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF



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