Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 031739
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1239 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A FAIRLY SHARP
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. TO
THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THIS FRONT...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES
TO ONLY CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN SPOTS...WITH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 90S SOUTHWEST OF THIS
FRONT...PRIMARILY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

FOR THIS MORNING...MODELS ARE INDICATING WE COULD SEE SOME
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA AND POTENTIALLY
CLIPPING THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...ALTHOUGH SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BACKED
OFF ON THIS SCENARIO SOME THE PAST FEW HOURS. EVEN SO...FELT
JUSTIFIED TO INCLUDE A SMALL CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THIS
AREA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY COULD BECOME THE FOCUS FOR SOME MAINLY ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER...
EXPECT SOME CONVECTION ROLLING OFF THE HIGH PLAINS TO INTERACT WITH
THE MEANDERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ALSO JUSTIFYING SMALL CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.

OVERALL...EXPECT SMALL CHANCES FOR CONVECTION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AS PLENTY OF INSTABILITY IS EVIDENT
IN MODEL SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH MODEST 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES. TEMPERATURE
WISE...NEAR AND NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT EXPECT SEASONABLY COOL
READINGS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
SOUTH AND WEST OF THIS FRONT LATER TODAY. FOR TONIGHT...WITH SOME
CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS AROUND...LIKELY WILL SEE OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THIS MORNINGS VALUES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO REVOLVE
AROUND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

MODELS AT THE THE START OF THE PERIOD TUESDAY MORNING SHOW AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL/ERN
PORTIONS OF WY...RIDING AROUND THE EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE CA/AZ/MEX BORDER AREA...WHILE A LEAD SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE
LOOKS TO BE SLIDING EAST THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
CHANCE THAT PRECIP COULD BE ONGOING TUESDAY MORNING...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST /ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF INCREASED MID LEVEL
ISENTROPIC LIFT/ AND SW /CLOSER TO THE BETTER LIFT OF THE SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE NOSE OF THE LLJ/ FRINGES OF
THE CWA. THROUGH THE MIDDLE SECTION OF THE CWA...MAY NOT BE MUCH
GOING ON. WEATHER THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS TUESDAY AND INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY THAT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STARTING
THE DAY OVER WY. MODELS VARY SOME WITH THE PATH/EVOLUTION OF THE
LOW...WITH THE ECMWF SLIDING IT EAST CLOSER TO THE NEB/KS STATE LINE
WITH TIME...VS THE GFS WHICH KEEPS IT FURTHER NORTH CLOSER THE
NEB/SD STATE LINE. MOST OTHER MODELS ARE TRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF.
HARD TO HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THE PLACEMENT OF ANY SFC
FEATURES...AS ACTIVITY FROM THE PREVIOUS NIGHT INTO TUES MORNING
COULD PLAY A ROLE IN WHERE THINGS END UP. DID BUMP UP POPS INTO THE
40-50 PERCENT RANGE FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOUR...BUT WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTIES REMAINING WITH HOW THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PLAY OUT...DIDNT GO WITH LIKELY POPS...BUT SOME
UPWARD ADJUSTMENT FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE AREA MAY END UP
BEING NEEDED...WILL SEE HOW UPCOMING RUNS OF MODELS TREND. STILL A
CONCERN FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...AND THE ENTIRE CWA REMAINS
IN THE MARGINAL RISK AREA FROM THE SPC OUTLOOK FOR TUES/TUES NIGHT.
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST MODEST AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY TO
DEVELOP...BUT MODELS DO VARY A BIT ON THE MAGNITUDE OF DEEPER LAYER
SHEAR...MOST ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...ANYWHERE IN THE 15 TO 35 KT
RANGE.

AS WE GET INTO WED/WED NIGHT...THINKING THAT THE 20-30 POPS IN THE
FORECAST WILL BE PRIMARILY CONFINED TO THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY
FROM ANY LINGERING ACTIVITY FROM TUES NIGHT. MODELS SHOWING AT 12Z
WEDNESDAY THAT AREA OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT A BIT
FURTHER NORTH...AND LOOKS TO BE CENTERED NEAR THE AZ/NM BORDER. MAY
HAVE SOME SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING INTO WRN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION...BUT ADDITIONAL PIECES OF ENERGY KEEP IT FROM AMPLIFYING
MUCH. THOUGHT ABOUT PULLING POPS COMPLETELY FROM THE FORECAST FOR
THE 00-12Z THURSDAY PERIOD...AS SOME MODELS SHOW THINGS QUIET...BUT
NOT ALL...WITH A FEW STILL SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR YET ANOTHER
WEAK DISTURBANCE PERHAPS BRINGING SOME ISO/SCT PRECIP...SO KEPT THE
20 POPS GOING.

MORE MODEL DIFFERENCES ARISE AS WE GET INTO THURS/THURS NIGHT.
GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE THURS MORNING...WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PLACEMENT OF THAT SWRN CONUS HIGH...WHILE
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO START MOVING THROUGH THE ID/MT/CAN
BORDER AREA. AT THIS POINT THINKING THAT A GOOD CHUNK/IF NOT MOST OF
THE DAY WILL BE DRY...BUT UNCERTAINTY IN THE LATER DAYTIME HOURS
INTO THURS NIGHT LIES WITH IF/WHEN A PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY OUT
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM IN THE NRN ROCKIES SPARKS OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF IT WILL DEPEND ON THE PLACEMENT OF MID LEVEL
WARMER TEMPS...WHICH THE GFS HAS PUSHING FURTHER NORTH INTO THE CWA
THAN THE ECMWF...SO IS LATER AND FURTHER EAST WITH ACTIVITY COMPARED
TO THE ECMWF...WHICH HAS MORE WIDESPREAD QPF PRIOR TO 00Z FRIDAY.
HARD TO GO VERY HIGH WITH POPS UNTIL THOSE FEATURES/TIMING CAN BE
WORKED OUT...AND KEPT THINGS IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE FOR NOW.

DO HAVE A DRY FORECAST GOING FOR FRI/FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH MODELS
SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO AMPLIFY JUST
ENOUGH TO KEEP BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OUT OF THE CWA...WILL SEE
IF UPCOMING MODEL RUNS ACTUALLY KEEP THAT IN PLACE. WHATEVER BREAK
THERE IS LOOKS TO BE A BRIEF ONE...WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGING AND POTENTIALLY MOVING
RIGHT THROUGH THE CWA FOR LATE IN THE DAY SAT INTO SAT NIGHT.

AS FAR AS TEMPS GO THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...NOT LOOKING AT ANY
SIGNIFICANT SWINGS EITHER WAY...FORECAST HIGHS REMAINING FOR THE
MOST PART IN THE 80S...WITH SOME 90S POSSIBLE ACROSS SRN LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TOMORROW...BUT CONFIDENCE IS SO LOW THAT IT WAS OPTED TO LEAVE
OUT OF THE TAF. LOW CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. AT THIS TIME IT IS TOO
EARLY TO DIAGNOSE EXACTLY HOW MUCH (IF ANY) VISIBILITY RESTRICTION
THERE WILL BE TOMORROW MORNING. NEVERTHELESS...DO EXPECT SOME
LOWER CEILINGS AROUND MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY MORNING
TOMORROW.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...GUERRERO



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