Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 231120

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
520 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 231 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

The pattern is setting up nicely for an extremely nice Thanksgiving
Day. An upper level ridge of high pressure oriented from the
desert southwest north through the Rockies will expand east onto
the plains through the afternoon. The effects of the warmer
airmass have already been noted with early morning temperatures
averaging in the 30s to around 40 degrees, setting the stage for
a solid warmup heading into the afternoon.

Record high temperatures for today, November 23rd currently stand

Grand Island:  66 degrees set in 2011, 2005
Hastings:      70 degrees set in 1923

A new record high temperature for Grand Island is attainable with a
current forecast high of 68 degrees. For Hastings, a new record high
is more marginal with the higher standing record and a current
forecast high temperature shy of the 70 degree mark.

Tonight`s weather remains dry and very mild with lows generally in
the middle 40s, which are what we typically see for high temperatures
this time of year.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 231 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

The upper ridge axis breaks down on Friday with a shortwave trough
and an associated cold front crossing our region. Temperatures are
expected to warm early ahead of the front, then steady and
potentially fall during the afternoon in the post frontal cold air
advection. There is a solid ten degree spread in model guidance for
high temperatures on Friday and the current forecast reflects a
blend of model solutions. Post frontal winds remain a concern with
model pressure rises averaging 4 to 5 mb behind the front and
forecast soundings indicate mixing to H85 with winds at the top of
the layer around 40kts midday Friday, and near 30kts during the
afternoon. Have increased increased post frontal wind gusts between
30 and 40 mph Friday afternoon.

Over the weekend, the forecast has consistently remained dry.
Saturday will be the cooler of the two days in the post frontal
airmass and influenced by surface high pressure. The surface ridge
axis migrates east on Sunday and upper ridging rebuilds onto the
plains bringing a return of warmer weather both Sunday and Monday
with temperatures forecast to return to the 60s for highs. As
warm as these temperatures are for this time of year, record high
temperatures for November 26th and 27th are in the 70s.

Cooler and more seasonal conditions are still on the horizon next
week with the arrival of a cold front Monday or Monday night. As
mentioned in previous discussions, models have not been in good
agreement with the mid week system. The latest operational runs
are trending to a progressive, open wave and a dry solution, so
the forecast remains precipitation free at this time.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 12Z Friday)
Issued at 515 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

VFR conditions are forecast through the period. Models hint at
some LLWS near the end of the TAF period, but was not strong
enough to mention in this set of TAFs. Looks to be more of an
issue for the 18z TAFs.




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