Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 281728

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1228 PM CDT Fri Oct 28 2016

Issued at 847 AM CDT Fri Oct 28 2016

Based on a glance at satellite trends, model high level relative
humidity (RH) progs and a good old-fashioned look out the window,
the inherited outright "sunny" sky cover wording/percentages from
previous shift just don`t look they were going to cut it today. As
a result, have at least doubled previous forecast percentages,
getting worded products more into "partly cloudy" range, and even
this may not be high enough at times. Obviously the degree/extent
of high clouds could impact high temps somewhat, but given there
should still be at least a decent amount of filtered sunshine, am
in no hurry to start cutting into inherited high temps, although
admittedly they may be just a touch on the aggressive side...time
will tell.

Fire weather wise this afternoon: As outlined well by previous
shift, we should largely avoid near-critical fire issues today
given that there is an almost "perfect" lack-of-overlap between
the 25-or-lower RH in mainly the western half of the CWA, and the
20+ MPH gusts mainly focused in the east. That being said, this
latest forecast update does technically show a narrow (about 1
county-wide) axis of near-critical potential centered roughly
along a Plainville-Franklin-Grand Island-Fullerton line. Given
this is such a small percentage of the CWA however, will stay the
course of leaving a formal mention of fire weather out of our
Hazardous Weather Outlook but obviously keep an eye on things as
the afternoon progresses.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 332 AM CDT Fri Oct 28 2016

A quiet day is expected across the region today as gusty
southerly winds this morning are expected to diminish and become
less gusty this afternoon as the pressure gradient eventually
relaxes across the region. With good mixing this
near 850 mb...expect afternoon temperatures to climb to near or
slightly above yesterdays unseasonably warm readings...with high
temperatures reaching the low to mid 80s in most locations. While
these readings are 15 to 25 degrees above seasonal norms for the
local area...they will likely fall several degrees shy of records
for the date...which are 90 and 87 in Grand Island and Hastings

Otherwise...could briefly see marginally critical fire weather
conditions in spots this afternoon as minimum relatively
humidities will fall to between 20 and 25 percent generally near
and west of highway 183. That said...the stronger winds will be
southeast of this area...making for less critical conditions
overall. As a result...decided not to mention near critical
conditions in the morning HWO and will make a brief mention in the
fire weather forecast instead.

Otherwise...despite similar cloud cover and a similar airmass
remaining in place across the region overnight tonight...expect
lighter winds to help allow low temperatures fall a few degrees
below this mornings seasonably warm readings...keeping them a few
degrees shy of setting record warm low temperatures for the date.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 332 AM CDT Fri Oct 28 2016

A cold front will move through the forecast area on Saturday.
Temperatures will be cooler, especially in the north. With the
cooler air, there will be an increase in clouds in the north during
the afternoon. A cool high pressure builds into the area behind the
cold front and Saturday night will be cooler. Sunday will still be
under the influence of the surface high and will be cooler. By
Sunday night, the surface high moves to the east and winds turn to
the south and start to increase. The south winds will bring in some
additional moisture and warmer temperatures again for Monday. The
next cold front moves through the area Monday afternoon and evening.
This front is dry again. There will be another surface high that
moves through the area Tuesday with cooler temperatures again.
Tuesday night into Wednesday another weak cold front moves through
the area then another high pressure system moves through.

Wednesday night through Thursday the models have started to move the
precipitation further to the south. Have maintained some low PoPs
during this period, but the latest runs of the models have most of
the preciptiation further to the south. The MUCAPE is also further to
the south. Have showers in for now, but will have to see if the
trend for the precipitation to be further south continues.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Fri Oct 28 2016

General overview:
Confidence remains rather high in VFR ceiling/visibility and
rain-free conditions through the period, with only fairly
appreciable high level cloud cover continuing to stream overhead
the majority of the time. As for surface winds, the strongest
southwesterly speeds of the period will occur right away this
afternoon with gust potential to around 20kt. By mid-late
afternoon, speeds will start dropping off as the pressure gradient
relaxes, and for the evening/overnight hours speeds will average
well under 10kt and trend toward variable direction. Very late in
the period toward mid-day Saturday, a steadier northeast wind will
just start becoming established behind a passing cold front, but
with the more pronounced increase in speeds holding off until just
barely after this valid period, will defer to next TAF cycle to
address this with another FM group.




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