Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXHW60 PHFO 281351
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 AM HST MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE FAR NORTHEAST OF THE STATE WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE
TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE ISLANDS. SHOWERS CARRIED BY THE TRADES WILL
AFFECT MAINLY WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN
SOMEWHAT IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RATHER FAIR WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE STATE EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH ONLY A FEW PASSING SHOWERS AFFECTING WINDWARD AND
MOUNTAIN AREAS AT TIMES. THE USUAL SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT DID NOT REALLY MATERIALIZE...AND THIS IS IN LIEU OF THE
SOMEWHAT TYPICAL EARLY MORNING LIHUE AND HILO SOUNDING PROFILES...
IN TERM OF PW VALUES. THE LIHUE SOUNDING REVEALED A SLIGHTLY LESS
UNSTABLE AIR MASS WHILE THE HILO SOUNDING TRENDED THE OTHER WAY.
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALED AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS JUST EAST OF
THE ISLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING FROM THE
SOUTH COVERING THE BIG ISLAND AT TIMES. THE INCOMING LOW CLOUDS MAY
BRING A LITTLE MORE SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING...MAINLY
TO WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN
NEAR THE ISLANDS...AND WILL PROBABLY KEEP ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS A
LITTLE UNSTABLE. STILL EXPECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO BE LIMITED IN
THE ISLAND VICINITY TODAY AS INDICATED BY FORECAST MODELS. THIS
WILL LEAD TO LESS SHOWERS...IN TERMS OF AREAL COVERAGE.

A SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY FAR NORTHEAST OF THE
STATE THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK AND WILL PROVIDE TRADE WINDS TO THE
STATE. WHILE LITTLE CHANGES ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS HIGH...THE
ISLANDS WILL SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS AT TIMES AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO THE LOW
PRESSURE FAR SOUTH OF THE AREA. FORECAST MODELS INDICATE A DRIER
AIR MASS WILL PERSIST IN THE ISLAND VICINITY THROUGH THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THEREFORE...TYPICAL SUMMER TRADE WIND WEATHER
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH
PASSING SHOWERS FOCUSED MAINLY ACROSS WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS.
WINDS MAY BE LOCALLY BREEZY AT TIMES.

LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE CLOSER IN TERM OF THE PENDING POSSIBLE
SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST WEATHER SCENARIO.
LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE MAY REACH THE BIG ISLAND LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...THEN SPREAD TO THE REST OF THE ISLAND CHAIN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE ISLANDS WILL EXPERIENCE ANOTHER BOUT OF
MUGGY CONDITIONS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS. PASSING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED MVFR CIGS WILL MAINLY AFFECT
WINDWARD SLOPES. TRADE WINDS MAY INCREASE A BIT LATER TODAY...
AND AIRMET TANGO FOR LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE OVER AND DOWNWIND OF
TERRAIN ON THE SMALLER ISLANDS COULD BECOME NECESSARY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL BE NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE TYPICALLY
WINDIER COASTAL WATERS AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND AT LEAST
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THEREFORE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THOSE AREAS AT LEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A SERIES OF SMALL SOUTHERLY SWELLS MAY BRING MINOR BUMPS ON SOUTH
FACING SHORES...WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE ON THURSDAY NIGHT. SHORT
PERIOD TRADE WIND SWELL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EAST FACING SHORES...
POSSIBLY INCREASING A BIT IN THE COMING DAYS AS TRADES STRENGTHEN.
NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT SWELLS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST WEDNESDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO AND ALENUIHAHA CHANNELS-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD AND SOUTHEAST
WATERS.

&&

$$

AVIATION...JACOBSON
REST...HUI





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.