Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 312342
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
642 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
TSRA ACTIVITY HAS COME TO AN END THIS EVENING WITH STILL QUITE A
BIT OF ACTIVITY IN THE NW GULF. THIS SHOULD NOT BE AN IMPACT TO
ANY OF THE TERMINALS. EXPECT VFR CIGS TONIGHT WITH MAYBE SOME
PATCHY FOG AT KCXO.

HI RES SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING 10-14Z OFF THE
COAST AND PUSHING INLAND. THINK THE HRRR MAY BE A BIT FAST LIKE IT
WAS YESTERDAY FOR TODAY`S CONVECTION. WILL KEEP ONSET ALONG THE
COAST AROUND 10-11Z FOR KGLS/KLBX BUT START ACTIVITY CLOSER TO 14Z
FOR KHOU/KSGR. THINK CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP MORE AS UPPER LOW
MOVES OVER THE REGION LATE MORNING. WILL CARRY VCTS FOR TAFS
MAINLY LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR MAINLY SCATTERED
ACTIVITY. CONVECTION SHOULD COME TO AN END IN THE 22-00Z TIME
FRAME FOR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

39

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS TODAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE NEARLY STATIONARY MID/UPPER LEVEL
LOW CENTERED OFF TO OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST WITH THE BEST COVERAGE IN
AND AROUND THE MATAGORDA BAY AREA. THESE STORMS PRODUCED SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL (RADAR ESTIMATED GENERALLY 1 TO 2 INCH TOTALS WITH SOME
HIGHER AMOUNTS APPROACHING 3 INCHES) FROM IN AND AROUND MATAGORDA BAY
TO THE FREEPORT AREA TO NEAR BRENHAM. MODELS SHOW MORE STORMS DEVELOPING
TONIGHT AND ON INTO TUESDAY MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW...AND
HAVE MENTIONED LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE FOR LOCATIONS NEAR THE
COAST AND OFFSHORE BEFORE SUNRISE THEN FURTHER INLAND DURING THE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON HOURS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE STRONGEST STORMS AND GREATEST
COVERAGE COULD REMAIN NEAR THE COAST AND OFFSHORE. WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS...EXPECT TO SEE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OR HIGHER. GENERALLY
HIGH END CHANCE POPS NEED TO BE CARRIED IN THE FORECAST ON INTO WEDNESDAY
AS THE LOW SLOWLY EDGES EASTWARD. IF THE LOW MOVES FURTHER OFF TO THE
EAST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS SOME MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST...MUCH OF OUR AREA (ESPECIALLY WELL INLAND UP NORTH) WILL DRY
OUT AND WARM UP. IF THE LOW CONTINUES TO LINGER NEAR US AS OTHER MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST...WE`LL END UP REMAINING ON THE RAINY SIDE WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. THIS FORECAST WILL CARRY GRADUALLY LOWERING
RAIN CHANCES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.  42

MARINE...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. STRONGEST OBSERVED WIND GUSTS FROM BUOYS AND
PLATFORMS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN IN THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE... BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME STRONGER GUSTS HEADING INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. A BRIEF LULL IN THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE A DISTURBANCE
OVER SOUTH TEXAS TRACKS OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS LATE TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. AS THIS HAPPENS... HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SHOWS ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE
MIDDLE TEXAS COAST TOWARDS THE UPPER TEXAS COAST TUESDAY MORNING.
HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LIMIT VISIBILITIES OVER THE MARINE AREAS TO LESS
THAN 1 NAUTICAL MILE AT TIMES. ADDITIONALLY... TROPICAL FUNNEL
CLOUDS MAY BE OBSERVED ALONG THE COAST WITH A WATERSPOUT OR TWO ALSO
POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND AGAIN
TUESDAY GIVEN THE INCREDIBLY BUOYANT AIRMASS IN PLACE. LOCALLY
HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES MAY ALSO BE PRESENT IN STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

OTHERWISE... LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS AND SEAS LESS THAN 3 FEET ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER
DISTURBANCE MEANDERS AROUND THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO.

HUFFMAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      72  91  72  93  72 /  20  30  20  20  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              74  88  72  90  72 /  40  60  50  50  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            79  87  78  87  78 /  60  60  50  50  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...39



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