Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 282342
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
642 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE DEVELOPING ALONG THE COMBINATION OF THE SEA
BREEZE...BAY BREEZE...AND AN WESTWARD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.
HAVE UPPED POPS TO 10 PERCENT AND INCLUDED MENTION OF A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INLAND AREAS
AWAY FROM THE COAST THROUGH THE MID EVENING TIME FRAME.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 540 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR SE TX TAF SITES INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS... BEFORE A RETURN OF MVFR VISIBILITIES AND
CEILINGS TO KCLL/KSGR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO RETURN AREAWIDE AFTER 15Z THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT BECOMING S-SE ON
WED AFTN. 43

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LACK OF CLOUDS TODAY HAVE HELPED BOOST A LOT OF INLAND TEMPERATURES
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S AS OF 2 PM. WITH SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF HEATING
LEFT...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE REACH 100 DEGREES OR MORE AT SOME
SPOTS. HEAT INDEX VALUES LOOK LIKE THEY ARE PEAKING IN THE 102 TO 107
RANGE THANKS MOSTLY TO LOWERING DEW POINTS. ONLY A SHOWER OR TWO HAS
DEVELOPED SO FAR UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE...BUT WE HAVE A COUPLE MORE
HOURS OF HEATING TO GET SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.
LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT APPEARS
THAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO OUR NORTH THEN NORTHWEST SHOULD KEEP RAIN
CHANCES ON THE VERY LOW SIDE. MAYBE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WE COULD
SEE A LITTLE BETTER SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE (STILL CARRYING 20%
TO 30% POPS) AS A DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ALLOWS A WEAK COLD
FRONT TO EDGE INTO THE AREA AND POSSIBLY BECOME A FOCUS AS PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES RISE UPWARD TOWARDS TWO INCHES. MODELS ARE EVENTUALLY BRINGING
SOME DRIER AIR (LOWERING DEW POINTS) INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT...AND
THIS SHOULD HELP TO KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES UNDER HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS
(>108 DEGREES) EVEN THOUGH SOME ACTUAL TEMPERATURES COULD END UP AT
OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES FOR A COUPLE DAYS IN A ROW.  42

MARINE...

ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT /INCREASING SLIGHTLY
ON EITHER SIDE OF MIDNIGHT/ WITH MORE OF A LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW
BECOMING ESTABLISHED WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH SLIDES ACROSS THE
WATERS. AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT WILL NEAR THE COASTAL WATERS
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY... INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES AS THIS HAPPENS AND ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY.
RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND AND DIMINISH AT
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

HUFFMAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      78  98  78  99  78 /  10  10  10  20  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              78  99  78  99  78 /  10  10  10  30  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            82  92  82  92  82 /  10  10  10  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...43



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