Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 230537
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1137 PM CST Sun Jan 22 2017

.AVIATION...
VFR. Winds relaxing but wind profile still pretty stout with wind
off the surface. Looking at radar and guidance will keep the LLWS
going through 09-12z with winds around 1000ft still 32035-40kts.
Winds back to the west in the afternoon then on around to the
south but very light late afternoon/evening.

45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 944 PM CST Sun Jan 22 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Much quieter night tonight. Forecast looks on track. No changes
planned at this time. 41

PREV DISCUSSION...  /ISSUED 401 PM CST Sun Jan 22 2017/

It has been one of the windiest days the region has experienced
in quite some time. Many areawide sites were reporting 25 to 35
mph sustained...with gusts to around 45 mph...throughout the day.
This has wrecked havoc on some Houston area power grids as (per
many social media reports) there have been reports of downed power
lines/poles and trees. These strong gradient winds will weaken
going into the sunset hours...inland winds falling to under 15 mph
by midnight. Coastal winds to fall to under 15 knots during the
pre-dawn Monday morning hours.

The upper low currently behind the deadly storm system impacting
the southeastern U.S. this afternoon is forecast to move off the
Mid-Atlantic coastline tomorrow evening. In the meantime...
transitory riding will fill in its wake and weaken this offshore
flow. A weakened north wind with starry overnight skies will allow
regional thermometers to fall into the interior lower to middle
40s...lower 50s along a breezier shore. Monday`s sunny and dry
conditions will counter weak cold air advection and allow T readings
to reach the 70s. Surface high pressure advancing east on Tuesday
will have flow returning onshore for just a day (or less). A
partially cloudy day with a subtle veering of the lower level
southerly wind will provide a familiar day of above normal
warmth...back in the lower 80s by day`s close. A somewhat dry cold
frontal passage Wednesday will swing winds around to offshore
through Thursday night. Light precipitation is expected in association
with the frontal passage. A much weaker backing pressure gradient
should not make for an inland wind issue...although offshore
flags will likely go up by late Thursday evening. The story will
be the cold late week air mass that fills in behind this frontal
boundary. 85H temps do fall between 0-5 deg C going into the weekend
that will translate to...wait for it...near normal diurnal (weekend)
temperature behavior. Early Saturday light QPF the ECMWF is hanging
on to may be a stretch with the limited available moisture. A somewhat
sharp trough passage across NE Texas during that time may support
the lift for this light precip...all liquid with a relatively deep
above freezing layer up to 6-7 k feet (per the GFS). 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      43  71  52  79  50 /   0   0   0  10  10
Houston (IAH)              45  70  52  80  57 /   0   0   0  10  20
Galveston (GLS)            51  67  60  76  62 /   0   0   0  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM CST Monday for the following
     zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship
     Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to
     Freeport out 20 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM CST Monday for the following
     zones: Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel
     from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport from
     20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...41
Aviation/Marine...45



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