Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 191143
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
643 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING THANKS TO A
BOUNDARY AT 850MB ALONG WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AS PWATS ARE
AROUND 2.20". HIGH RES MODELS SHOWING PRECIP CONTINUING THIS
MORNING WITH SOME REDEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON. GFS AND ECMWF
BOTH SHOW REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. 23

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 452 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED QUICKLY AROUND 330 AM
AND HAVE CONTINUED TO EXPAND AND INTENSIFY. STORMS ARE LINING UP
FROM AROUND COLLEGE STATION ACROSS MONTGOMERY COUNTY AND ANOTHER
LINE ACROSS BRENHAM TO SW HARRIS TO GALVESTON. THESE STORMS APPEAR
TO BE FOCUSING ALONG THE 850-700 TROUGH AXIS AND MOISTURE IS IN
ABUNDANCE WITH GPS DATA SHOWING 2.4" PW AT HOUSTON AND MODEL
SOUNDING ARE PROGGING VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. HAVE EXPANDED THE FLOOD WATCH AND EXTENDED
IT TO 10 PM THOUGH BY 7 PM AM EXPECTING STORMS TO BE WEAKENING.
OF NOTE THE TEXAS TECH WRF ENSEMBLE PAINTS A VERY WET PATTERN FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA FROM COLLEGE STATION TO HUNTSVILLE AND AROUND THE
HOUSTON METRO AREA. DO HAVE SOME CONCERNS THAT BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS TODAY COULD DRIVE UP TEMPERATURE AND DRAMATICALLY INCREASE
THE INSTABILITY. BASED ON YESTERDAYS MINIMAL DIURANAL TEMPERATURE
RANGES HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES TODAY AND THEY MAY NEED FURTHER
SHRINKING.

AS RIDGING SETTLES INTO LOWER MS VALLEY SATURDAY DRIER AIR FIRST
IN THE MID LEVELS AND EVENTUALLY THE LOWER LEVELS SPREADS INTO THE
AREA FROM THE EAST AND RAIN CHANCES SHIFT SOUTHWESTWARD AND FALL
OFF DRAMATICALLY FROM TODAYS NUMBERS. A SHOT OF DRIER AIR PUSHES
IN WITH THE NEXT FRONT AND BY MIDWEEK VERY PLEASANT WEATHER SHOULD
BE ON TAP.
45

MARINE...
ONSHORE WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT OVER THE WATERS TODAY
THANKS TO A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO BACK SUNDAY
AND TURN EASTERLY AS THE NEXT WEAK COLD FONT APPROACHES. WEEKEND
MARINERS CAN EXPECT SLIGHTLY ELEVATED SEA HEIGHTS DUE TO THE
PROLONGED EASTERLY FETCH. A SECONDARY SURGE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
WILL PUSH THE COLD FRONT SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH ON MONDAY BUT IT
WILL STILL NOT MAKE IT. EAST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND
AND GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS. A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FETCH WILL ALLOW TIDE
LEVELS TO SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEK. 23

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      84  72  88  73  89 /  80  20  30  10  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              85  72  87  74  89 /  80  20  30  10  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            85  78  85  78  85 /  70  30  30  30  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...
     COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...
     JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MATAGORDA...MONTGOMERY...SAN
     JACINTO...WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45
AVIATION/MARINE...23



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