Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 111556 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
955 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.UPDATE... 12Z JAN SOUNDING REVEALS MAJOR WARMING FROM 3 TO 10 KFT
ABOVE THE GROUND THE LAST 24 HOURS AS FLOW IN THIS LAYER HAS TURNED
DECIDEDLY TO THE WEST. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY
SAGGING TOWARD THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR AND THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE
SAGGING SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. BUT SOUTH OF
THIS FRONT THE WEATHER SITUATION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY ABUNDANT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND ASSOCIATED
WARMTH. THIS MIXING/WARMING POTENTIAL DISPLAYED ON THE MENTIONED
SOUNDING LEAVES NO CHOICE BUT TO RAISE HIGH TEMP EXPECTATIONS IN
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES TODAY...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING HOW
RAPIDLY READINGS ARE WARMING THIS MORNING IN THOSE AREAS. A
CONSEQUENCE OF THIS ADJUSTMENT TO THE FORECAST IS THE EXPECTATION OF
REDUCED HUMIDITIES AND GUSTIER SOUTHWEST WINDS IN CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ZONES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THE COMBO OF
MINIMUM RH AND WINDS IN THESE AREAS IS ENOUGH TO WARRANT A LIMITED
FIRE WEATHER CONCERN IN THE HWO/GRAPHICS...AND THIS IS BEING
ACCOUNTED FOR CURRENTLY. /BB/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
TODAY AND TONIGHT.  A COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THE COURSE OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL RESULT IN AN EVENTUAL
WIND SHIFT AT SITES.  AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WINDS WILL BE WEST
SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY BETWEEN 3-8
KNOTS.  SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AT
NAMELY KHBG. THIS COULD RESULT IN VISIBILITIES DROPPING TO MVFR
CATEGORIES AROUND DAY BREAK FRIDAY. /19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY
SINK SOUTH INTO AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE COURSE OF
TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. WHILE NO RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT...
SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION AS
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS. MEANWHILE...LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL AID IN PROMOTING WARMER CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. LOOK FOR HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON UNDER MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES TO TOP OUT FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE NORTH ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR...TO THE MIDDLE 70S IN THE SOUTH ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR.  LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S TO
AROUND 50...WITH AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS MY
SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL RESIDE EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING.

LIGHT WEST NORTHWEST WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL PROMOTE WEAK COLD
ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION.  TEMPERATURE RESPONSE WILL BE MINIMAL
AS HIGHS RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NORTH TO MID 70S SOUTH.  HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL SURGE
SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN INCREASED
COLD ADVECTION OVER THE REGION.  UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 40S. /19/

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COME SATURDAY MORNING WL STILL BE UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A STOUT >1040MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY RIDGING SOUTH ACROSS OUR CWA. OUR AIR
MASS WILL BE RATHER DRY WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS TO MID
20S AND PWATS BELOW A HALF INCH. DESPITE SUNNY SKIES...THE DEEP CAA
WL HELP HOLD AFTERNOON HIGHS BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOWER 40S NORTH TO
THE LOWER 50S SOUTH. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS EAST
TO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN A LIGHT
EAST WIND BY MORNING BUT DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING OF THE DRY AIR
MASS WILL ALLOW FOR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES AGAIN OVER MOST OF
THE AREA NORTH OF HIGHWAY 84. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE EAST TO
THE MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY SUNDAY EVENING RESULTING IN A LIGHT
SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER OUR REGION THAT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY INCREASE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE OVER OUR CWA. A 130KT CORE OF THE SOUTHERN JET WILL BE
OVER THE GULF COAST STATES SUNDAY EVENING WHEN AN INITIAL NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL DROP A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI BY MIDNIGHT. LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY SPREAD INTO OUR
NORTHWEST ZONES LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE WILL
LIFT OUT RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHEAST STRANDING THE COLD FRONT THAT IS
EXPECTED TO STALL ALONG THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR MONDAY. A SECOND MORE
POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL DROP OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY MORNING AND SWING
ACROSS OUR CWA MONDAY EVENING. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE SOUTH OF THE FRONT MONDAY WITH PWATS INCREASING
TO ONE INCH. MODELS DIFFER ON POSITION AND STRENGTH OF A SURFACE LOW
THAT MAY DEVELOP OVER OUR CWA ALONG THE STALLED FRONT BUT THE SYSTEM
LOOKS TO SHIFT EAST RAPIDLY MONDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN ENDING FROM THE
WEST BY MIDNIGHT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WILL LAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE MONDAY EVENING...WEST
TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE BUT THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST TO THE
NORTHERN GULF BY WEDNESDAY MORNING HELPING TEMPERATURES REMAIN MILD
OVER OUR CWA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY THEN ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY.
/22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       73  41  65  36 /   0   0   0   0
MERIDIAN      70  37  66  35 /   0   0   0   0
VICKSBURG     74  40  65  38 /   0   0   0   0
HATTIESBURG   75  48  74  41 /   0   0   0   0
NATCHEZ       76  46  69  40 /   0   0   0   0
GREENVILLE    62  35  57  33 /   0   0   0   0
GREENWOOD     62  34  59  32 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

BB/17/19/22


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