National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS64 KJAN 111510 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1015 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014

.UPDATE...HIGH TEMPERATURES LOWERED EVERYWHERE AND POPS INCREASED IN
THE SOUTHEAST FOR TODAY. POPS INCREASED TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES THIS EVENING. /BB/

&&

.DISCUSSION...PHASED SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW HEADING EAST JUST
NORTH OF THE GULF COAST THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. BEST MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL IMPACT SE
MS MIDDAY THROUGH AFTERNOON AND POPS RAISED TO 70 TO 80 PERCENT
HERE. FURTHER NORTH AND NORTHWEST WARMTH AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
BE LESS AND DEEP LIFT MORE CONFINED TO AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING
WHEN FOCUSED UPPER LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE SWINGS ACROSS AND BRINGS
SHOWERS. THUNDER POTENTIAL STILL DEEMED TO BE THERE...PRIMARILY IN
THE AFTERNOON...IN SOUTHEAST HALF OF ZONES ALTHOUGH EMBEDDED STORM
WORDING CUT BACK TO ISOLATED DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY. FORTUNATELY
NO SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED. IN ALL AREAS LOW TO MID LAYER
CLOUD SHIELD TAKING OVER FROM THE SOUTH WILL WORK TO LIMIT
TEMPERATURES RISES A GREAT DEAL AND HAVE THUS CUT BACK HIGHS QUITE
CONSIDERABLY IN MOST SPOTS. FOR TONIGHT THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW SHOULD TRANSITION EAST OF THE REGION
BY LATE EVENING ALTHOUGH LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE COULD PERSIST
IN MANY CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. LATEST
ZONES AND GRIDS OUT THE DOOR. /BB/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MID LEVEL COLD CORE
NOTED THIS MORNING ON SATELLITE OVER SE TX MOVING EAST NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. LATEST SERIES OF IR IMAGES SHOWING A MARKED
COOLING IN CLOUD TOPS OVER THE WESTERN GULF INTO SE TX IN THE WARM
ADVECTION REGIME IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE LOW. RADARS SHOWING SOME
CONVECTION OFFSHORE WITH SOME LIGHTNING POPPING IN THE MIX AS WELL.

GFS/EURO CONTINUE IN AGREEMENT IN MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM QUICKLY
THROUGH THE AREA TODAY INTO EARLY EVENING. NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS
ARE NOW SHOWING SOME POSSIBLE INSTABILITY FOR TODAY WITH SOMEWHAT
BETTER VERTICAL TOTALS NEAR 30 AND CAPES NEAR 1000 J/KG OVER MAINLY
S MS. WILL INTRODUCE SOME THUNDER POSSIBILITIES IN THE GRIDS FOR
THOSE AREAS.

MAJORITY OF PRECIP WILL HAVE MOVED EAST DURING THE EVENING...BUT
FAST APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST LOOKS TO KEEP A FEW
SHOWERS RIGHT ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO
KEEP SURFACE GRADIENT TIGHT. A WINDY DAY LOOKS TO BE ON TAP...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE DELTA REGION WHERE WIND SPEEDS WILL FLIRT WITH
ADVISORY CRITERIA./26/

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE EURO/GFS/ENSEMBLES
CONTINUE TO BE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER PATTERN THROUGH
FRIDAY. AS WE PUSH INTO NEXT WEEKEND THE MODELS DIVERGE IN SOLUTIONS.
STARTING ON THURSDAY AN UPPER TROUGH WILL EXIT EAST AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST. BROAD UPPER FLAT
RIDGING WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS AS WE PUSH TOWARD FRIDAY. A
SHORT WAVE WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THE GFS WAS FASTER IN MOVING THE DAMPENING SHORT WAVE INTO THE REGION
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE EURO PUSHED THE WASHED OUT SHORT WAVE
ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. PWATS WILL BE AROUND 1.2 INCHES...BUT
MODELS SHOWS THAT INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK FOR SOME SHOWERS WITH THE
SHORT WAVE. AN ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. MEANWHILE TO THE WEST THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH
A BLOCKING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US...WHICH RESULTS IN A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REST OF THE CONUS. THE EURO MODEL SHOWS NO SIGN
OF ANY FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY. SHORT WAVE ENERGY
WILL DIG INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A
SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES CROSSING THE REGION IN SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE WEAK AS WE GO THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE GFS SHOWS AN UPPER CLOSED LOW MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TO THE NORTHERN GULF ON MONDAY...WHILE THE EURO SHOWED THE
CLOSED LOW BEING CUT OFF OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WHILE A SHORT WAVE
PASSES OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT. BOTH MODELS DRIES THE REGION
OUT FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES
ZONAL...WHILE THE EURO MOVES A DEEPER TROUGH THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.

AS FAR AS TEMPS ARE CONCERNED WENT CLOSE TO MEX AND GMOS GUIDANCE
FOR MOST PERIODS. AS FAR AS POPS ARE CONCERNED WENT CLOSE TO MEX
GUIDANCE...EXCEPT FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WHERE GUIDANCE POPS
LOOKED TOO HIGH SO WENT CLOSE TO HPC LOWER POPS./17/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO MVFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES FROM THE SOUTH TOWARDS 18Z. VICINITY SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP NEAR KJAN/KHKS/KMEI/KHBG WITH SOME THUNDER POSSIBLE AROUND
KHBG. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LINGER TO AROUND 02Z...ESPECIALLY
AROUND KMEI/KHBG. AFTER 12/06Z...CEILINGS WILL RISE FROM THE NW WITH
CLEARING SKIES BEGINNING AROUND 12/12Z. /27/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       70  55  64  32 /  60  27  12   9
MERIDIAN      71  57  65  30 /  73  45  17  10
VICKSBURG     72  54  64  32 /  46  19  12   7
HATTIESBURG   68  60  67  34 /  76  35  15   5
NATCHEZ       70  53  61  34 /  60  17  12   8
GREENVILLE    73  53  61  32 /  32  18  14   6
GREENWOOD     74  54  61  29 /  41  26  13   7

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

BB/27/26/17