Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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000
FXUS64 KJAN 050429
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1010 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...STRONG COLD FRONT WAS NOTED JUST WEST OF MERIDIAN AND
SOUTHWEST TO NEAR BROOKHAVEN. THE TEMPERATURE AT 10PM AT MERIDIAN
WAS STILL 70F AND HATTIESBURG WAS STILL 73F. TEMPERATURES DROP OFF
RAPIDLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH JACKSON DOWN TO 47F AND GREENVILLE
34F. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
WHILE PRECIPITATION MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED
TO THE CURRENT WINTER STORM WARNING AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THIS
EVENING. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW THE LEADING EDGE OF A BROAD BAND OF
LIGHT RAIN JUST NORTHWEST OF OUR CWA THAT WILL BEGIN BRINGING
FREEZING RAIN AND WINTRY MIX TO MUCH OF OUR CWA OVERNIGHT AND
LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WITH THE UPDATE HAVE ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURE CURVES WITH TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AND REMOVED
THUNDER WORDING. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...A MIX OF MVFR/VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES CONTINUE TO BE
OBSERVED AT TAF SITES ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...DUE TO VARYING
CEILINGS HEIGHTS. A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS MOVED ACROSS THE AREA AND
HAS RESULTED IN LOWER CEILINGS AND A FEW SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECT MOSTLY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY MORNING.

BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS ARE BECOMING NORTHERLY AND SUSTAINED
BETWEEN 20-25 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE DELTA. THIS WILL USHER IN A VERY COLD AIRMASS OVERNIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.

OVERNIGHT...THESE STRONG COLD ADVECTING WINDS WILL RESULT IN A
CHANGEOVER OF RAIN...TO FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET BEGINNING IN THE
DELTA AROUND 05Z TONIGHT. THIS CHANGEOVER IN PRECIPITATION WILL
CONTINUE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI THROUGH DAY BREAK THURSDAY
MORNING. CURRENTLY...ICE ACCUMULATION LOOKS MORE PREVALENT...
BETWEEN 0.25-0.50 INCHES...AT KGLH AND KGWO WHERE A WINTER STORM
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM TONIGHT THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY. AN
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION OF SLEET AND SNOW UP TO 1 INCH IS ALSO
POSSIBLE AT BOTH KGLH AND KGWO. AT KGTR...WHERE A WINTER STORM
WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FROM TONIGHT THROUGH 21Z THURSDAY...ICE
ACCUMULATION CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE < 0.25 INCHES. FINALLY...AT
KHKS...KJAN...AND KMEI...ICE ACCUMULATION IF ANY...CURRENTLY APPEARS
LIGHT AND ONLY COLLECTING ON METAL SURFACES AND PERHAPS SOME
ELEVATED SURFACES. /19/15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 500 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...HOT TODAY...COLD TOMORROW. STRONG ARCTIC FRONT
ACCOMPANIED WITH A MAJOR TEMPERATURE GRADIENT MOVING THROUGH THE
STATE RIGHT NOW. GREENVILLE AND GREENWOOD DROPPED 25 DEGREES IN AN
HOUR WITH THE PASSING OF THE FRONT. A COUPLE OF SHOWERS HAVE POPPED
UP IN THE WARM SECTOR THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SEEN
THOUGH HAS BEEN ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING
UP TO 20 MPH FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND UP TO 30 MPH FROM
THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT.

OF COURSE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE TIMING...ONSET...AND
PRECIP TYPES OF THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
MORNING. THE FREEZING LINE IS CURRENTLY FROM THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL
TO LITTLE ROCK TO THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH AREA. THIS LINE WILL PUSH
SOUTH AND EAST TONIGHT AND IS FORECAST TO REACH INTO THE MISSISSIPPI
DELTA BY 03Z WHICH IS A LITTLE QUICKER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED.
THIS IS THE POINT WE EXPECT THE POST-FRONTAL RAIN TO BEGIN THE
TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN. THIS FREEZING LINE AND THIS TRANSITION
WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH AND EASTWARD REACHING JACKSON BY 12Z.

A WINTER STORM WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT STARTING AT 6PM FOR
COUNTIES IN THE ARKLAMISS DELTA. THESE LOCATIONS CAN EXPECT UP TO
1/4 INCH OF ACCUMULATING FREEZING RAIN FOLLOWED BY UP TO ONE
INCH OF SLEET/SNOW MIX. THE WARNING IS EXPANDED ONE COUNTY TIER
SOUTH AND EAST AT 06Z AND THEN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY BEGINS AT
03Z. IN THE ADVISORY AREA...LOCATIONS CAN EXPECT UP TO A COATING OF
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. IT IS HARD TO TELL HOW THIS PRECIP WILL
AFFECT ROADWAYS SINCE TEMPERATURES TODAY HAVE BEEN SO WARM...JUST A
FEW DEGREES BELOW RECORD FOR A COUPLE LOCATIONS TODAY.
ALTHOUGH...DELTA LOCATIONS WILL MOST LIKELY SEE ACCUMULATIONS ON
ROADWAYS BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. BY 12Z...PRECIP FALLING IN THE DELTA
IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A SNOW/SLEET MIX AND CONTINUE UNTIL THE
SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA IN EARLY AFTERNOON. FOR THE REST OF CENTRAL MS
AND NORTHEAST LA...PRECIP WILL BEGIN IT`S TRANSITION TO FREEZING
RAIN BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z. AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO RUSH INTO THE
AREA...ANOTHER TRANSITION TO SLEET AND SNOW COULD OCCUR BETWEEN 15Z
AND 18Z. ALL PRECIP SHOULD BE EXITED THE AREA BY 00Z FRIDAY.

FOR MOST COUNTIES AND PARISHES UNDER THE WARNING AND
ADVISORY...EXPECT ICE ACCUMULATION IN TREES FIRST THEN ONTO ROOFS
AND ONTO VEHICLES. ROADWAYS WILL BE WARM FROM THE PAST COUPLE DAYS
SO EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS ON THESE SURFACES TO BE DELAYED AT FIRST.
OTHER IMPACTS TO ALSO CONSIDER ARE THE WIND CHILLS. THE GRADIENT
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CAUSE WINDS TO CONTINUE TO
GUST FROM THE NORTH UP TO 20-25 MPH THROUGH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE TEENS/LOW 20S FOR MUCH OF
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S FOR MUCH
OF THE CWA COME FRIDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE HIGH SITS OVER THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. FOR LOCATIONS IN THE DELTA...TEMPS WILL DROP
INTO THE TEENS FRIDAY MORNING. WITH WINDS STILL BLOWING FROM THE
NORTH...WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE DELTA THAT
MORNING. /10/

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AFTER A RATHER CHILLY START
TO FRIDAY TEMPERATURES WONT WARM TOO MUCH FOR THE DELTA REGION. IN
FACT SOME SITES MAY STRUGGLE TO GET TO FREEZING THAT DAY OR MUCH
ABOVE IT. MOST OF THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE ABLE TO WARM INTO THE
40S AND LOWER 50S AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE REGION AND
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL. ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT WILL OCCUR FRIDAY
NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN COUNTIES WHICH WERE NOT ABLE TO WARM
MUCH DURING THE DAY. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BECOME FAIRLY CENTERED
OVER THAT NORTHERN HALF AND WITH CLEAR SKIES/CALMING WINDS...
TEMPERATURES COULD DROP OFF INTO THE UPPER TEENS.

THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE SFC HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION WHILE
THE UPPER PATTERN TAKES ON MORE OF A SOUTHWESTERLY ORIENTATION. THIS
WILL RESULT IN SOME GRADUAL MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. CLOUDS WILL ALSO INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE
SOUTHERN STREAM JET STARTS TO GET A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND ESPECIALLY STARTING
EARLY SUNDAY. THIS COMES AS A SFC LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TEXAS COAST AND TRACKS EASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK.
FORTUNATELY TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL OF THIS
PRECIPITATION TO BE IN THE LIQUID FORM RATHER THAN FROZEN.
UNFORTUNATELY...THE REGION WILL BE LOCKED INTO MORE OF AN
UNSETTLED/WET PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE WEEK AS A
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH TRACKS SLOWLY ACROSS TEXAS TOWARD OUR REGION.
THIS WILL KEEP PERSISTENT CHANCES IN AT LEAST THE SOUTH AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. SOME WARMER
TEMPERATURES LOOK POSSIBLY BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK BUT OVERALL WE
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. /28/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       31  33  22  43 /  90  76  13  10
MERIDIAN      34  36  22  49 /  79  76  16  12
VICKSBURG     27  31  21  40 / 100  74  11   9
HATTIESBURG   43  46  25  51 /  70  59  20   7
NATCHEZ       29  32  22  40 /  86  75  14   9
GREENVILLE    24  29  16  34 / 100  62   8   9
GREENWOOD     25  30  16  37 / 100  77   9   9

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 3 PM CST THURSDAY FOR
     MSZ038-039-043>046-048>050-053-054-059>061.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM CST THURSDAY FOR MSZ029>033-036-
     037-042-047.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR MSZ018-019-
     025>028-034-035-040-041.

LA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 3 PM CST THURSDAY FOR
     LAZ024-026.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM CST THURSDAY FOR LAZ016-023-025.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR LAZ007>009-015.

AR...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

22/15/10/28







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