904
FXUS64 KJAN 162353 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
653 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 116 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

The primary features of note in our region are the broad west-east
oriented upper-level ridge over the Southern U.S. and the easterly
tropical wave sliding across the northern Gulf. Current loops of
visible satellite imagery do a good job illustrating the clockwise
flow around a hot surface high to our southwest and more vigorous
flow around the area of tropical low pressure to our southeast. At
the current time, the center of rotation with that system was right
around Panama City, FL.

The latest suite of model guidance is not too different from
previous runs, but the current trajectory reflects the idea that
this system will struggle to pose an organized heavy rain threat in
our forecast area over the next few days. Best chances for heavier
rain have always been directed to our south along the Coast, but a
less coherent low to get picked up in the upper-level steering
pattern will mean less focus for more intense rainfall farther
north. Latest probabilistic guidance for rainfall puts median
(middle value) amounts near 1 inch in the US Highway 84 corridor and
90th percentile (upper range) amounts around 2 inches in the same
areas. These amounts are not concerning especially if falling over
several hours. And the flow will not be very stagnant, so showers
and storms will mostly be moving. Therefore, have stopped
advertising the low-end flash flood risk we had previously. Isolated
heavy rain can`t be ruled out, but focus will be south of the
forecast area.

Into early next week, in the wake of the tropical disturbance, upper-
level ridging will generally reestablish its presence over the region
and retrograde to the west. Ensemble mean 500mb height values place
a 594dam ridge squarely over the Interstate 40 corridor through the
Ozarks and Mid-South regions. Should promote hot weather and keep
precip chances a little more restricted in our forecast area.
Current guidance keeps POPs more around eastern/southeastern MS on
the periphery of this ridge. More heat headlines may be needed next
week. /NF/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 647 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

VFR conditions will prevail until after 10Z when lowered ceilings
and rain chances begin to impact southern sites. This activity
will spread north trough the day and central and southern sites
will likely see rain and scattered storms with associated
transient drops in flight categories, MVFR/IFR, through the
remainder of the TAF period. /86/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       76  94  75  91 /  10  40  10  80
Meridian      75  92  74  91 /  10  50  10  80
Vicksburg     77  96  76  91 /   0  30  10  70
Hattiesburg   76  92  76  92 /  40  80  30  90
Natchez       76  94  74  89 /  10  60  20  90
Greenville    76  96  75  92 /   0  10   0  50
Greenwood     77  98  76  93 /   0  10  10  60

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ018-019-025>066-
     072>074.

     Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Thursday for MSZ018-019-
     025>037-040>043-047-048-053-059-060.

LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ007>009-015-016-
     023>026.

     Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Thursday for LAZ007>009-015-
     016-023>026.

AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ074-075.

     Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Thursday for ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

NF/NF/LP