Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 291447 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
947 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...THE INHERITED FORECAST IS ON TRACK, AND NO CHANGES ARE
PLANNED AT THIS TIME. MORNING WV IMAGERY SHOWS A CLOSED UPPER LOW
CENTERED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF. VORTICITY WITH THIS FEATURE
AND A POOL OF GREATER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER EAST MS THIS AFTERNOON.
FARTHER WEST, DRIER AIR EXISTS WHICH SHOULD LIMIT DEVELOPMENT. /DL/

&&

.AVIATION...GTR WAS STILL REPORTING A CIG OF 1000FT AT 14Z. THIS CIG
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 15Z AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THIS EVNG. OTHERWISE...AN AFTN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA COULD
BRIEFLY IMPACT GTR/MEI...WITH LESSER CHANCES AT GWO/JAN/HKS/HBG.
/EC/22/

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 412 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION. MODELS UNANIMOUSLY FORECAST THIS LOW TO BE
ABSORBED BY A NEW SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES CURRENTLY DIGGING
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION. AS THIS
HAPPENS...DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTH ATLANTIC REGION WILL BE
DRAWN WESTWARD AND WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASING HEAT/INSTABILITY TO
INCREASE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER EASTERN MS. LAPSE RATES
ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE OVERLY STEEP...BUT DCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF
1000 J/KG MAY SUPPORT SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH ANY STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY WHILE SEEING A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY THIS WEEKEND. /EC/

MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SHOWS A PATTERN CHANGE OVER THE CONUS
FOR THE PERIOD WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER WESTERN CONUS AND
STRONG UPPER RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. OVER THE REGION A WEAK
CUT OFF UPPER LOW WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE REGION UNDER THE MEAN UPPER
RIDGE. MEAN MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION AS PWATS
PUSH TO THE 1.8 TO 2 INCH RANGE BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING LOW END
CHANCES OF CONVECTION FOR THE WORK WEEK AS MIDLEVEL CAPPING WILL
INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT WITHOUT ANY FOCUSED LIFT. ALSO TROPICAL STORM
ERIKA MAY DRY SLOT US SOME AS THE REMNANT OF IT PUSHES NORTH WELL
EAST OF THE REGION. SPEAKING OF ERIKA NHC GUIDANCE AND TROPICAL
MODELS KEEPS THE TROPICAL SYSTEM WELL EAST OF THE ARKLAMISS. NHC
GUIDANCE PUSHES THE SYSTEM ACROSS CUBA THEN OFF THE WEST FLORIDA
COAST BEFORE PUSHING IT INLAND INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ON
WEDNESDAY. AS WE PUSH TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD CHANCES OF
CONVECTION SLOWLY INCREASE. DAILY HIGHS WILL AVERAGE IN THE 90-94
RANGE WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S AS MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL COME
BACK TO THE REGION. WITH THIS IN MIND MADE SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO
CURRENT FORECAST BASED ON NEW MODEL GUIDANCE. /17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       91  67  91  68 /   4   8   4  10
MERIDIAN      88  67  90  66 /  27  16   8  10
VICKSBURG     93  65  93  67 /   3   5   4   9
HATTIESBURG   91  68  92  69 /  15   9   7   9
NATCHEZ       90  67  89  68 /   4   5   7  10
GREENVILLE    93  68  92  69 /   3   9  12  12
GREENWOOD     91  68  91  68 /  11  16  14  12

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

DL/22/EC/17



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