Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 180127 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
827 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...MOST OF THE ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM THIS AFTERNOON
HAS DIED OUT SAVE FOR TINY SHOWERS NORTH OF PRENTISS AND NEAR
EASTABUCHIE. SHOWERS WERE RATHER SPARSE TODAY THANKS TO A LOBE OF
DRIER AIR EXTENDING ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH IS CLEARLY EVIDENT IN
THE BLENDED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT AND ALSO WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. THIS WILL HELP KEEP THINGS DRY ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MOST
OF THE NIGHT. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN THE DELTA
AROUND DAYBREAK AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY
OVERNIGHT...SO WE WILL LEAVE IN MINOR RAIN CHANCES EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING IN THAT AREA. ELSEWHERE...POPS WILL BE REMOVED FOR THIS
EVENING. /DL/

&&

.AVIATION...
ALL SITES ARE VFR THIS EVENING AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD...BUT SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD
DAY BREAK THURSDAY MORNING. THE WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS
THE AREA AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. /17/

&&


.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/
SHORT TERM...A SECOND SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE OFF TO OUR WEST TOMORROW
WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AND COULD TRIGGER SOME CONVECTION IN OUR
MOST WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES. ANY SCATTERED ACTIVITY THAT DOES
FORM WILL BEGIN TO WANE WITH SUNSET TOMORROW.

AFTER THURSDAY`S DAYTIME ACTIVITY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD UP INTO THE SOUTH AGAIN AND CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY
OUT. POPS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE WHILE TEMPS GO BACK UP INTO THE LOW
90S WIDESPREAD FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND. /10/

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE
TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD BUT DO OFFER A BIT
MORE UNCERTAINTY ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE EARLY WEEK TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COOL FRONT. BEFORE WE GET TO NEXT WEEK...CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING FOR THE FRI-SAT PERIOD BEING PRECIP FREE. DURING THIS
TIME THE NW FLOW PATTERN WILL SHIFT TO ONE WITH A S/WV RIDGE WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR A BACKDOOR SFC FRONT TO MOVE IN FROM THE NE/E. THIS
WILL PROVIDE DRIER LOW LEVEL TO MOVE ALONG WITH DRIER DEEP LAYER AIR
TO BUILD IN AS WELL.

TO START NEXT WEEK...THE PATTERN WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO MORE OF AN
AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A E CONUS TROUGH TAKING SHAPE. WHAT IS MORE
IN PLAY WITH THE FORECAST NOW IS HOW BOTH THE GFS/EURO HAVE THE
REMNANT MOISTURE FROM ODILE WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE S PLAINS AND
INTO THE FRONTAL CIRCULATION. THE EURO IS MORE BULLISH WITH THIS
SOLUTION AND HAS BETTER PRECIP POTENTIAL FOR MON/MON NGT. THE GFS
HAS SOMETHING SIMILAR...BUT SEEMS TO USE UP THE MOISTURE TOO QUICKLY
OVER THE PLAINS...THUS LIMITING THE PRECIP POTENTIAL WHEN MOVING
ACROSS OUR REGION. WILL FOLLOW THE EURO SOLUTION. FOR TUE INTO
WED...THE SFC FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE CWA AND ALLOW FOR
COOLER/DRIER CONDITIONS TO BE IN PLACE.

AS FOR TEMPS...ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL EXIST INTO EARLY MON
BEFORE WE SHIFT TO MORE SEASONAL READINGS FOR TUE. GUID TEMPS WERE
OK...BUT SOME MODIFICATIONS WERE MADE. FIRST...DUE TO SOME
INCREASING CLOUD COVER ON SUNDAY...OPTED TO USE A BLEND OF THE
GFS/EURO MAX TEMPS. WITH A WETTER/MORE CLOUDY SOLUTION EXPECTED ON
MON...FOLLOWED MORE OF THE EURO TEMPS WITH A TREND BACK TO THE GFS
BY WED. /CME/

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DL/17/10/CME




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