Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 190947
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
345 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AREA RADARS AND
SATELLITE WAS PICKING UP LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WITH SOME EMBEDDED
CONVECTION OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. IT WAS
PUSHING TOWARD THE REGION. A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS OBSERVED
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HIGH RES MODELS SHOWS WIDESPREAD MODERATE
RAINS PUSHING INTO THE REGION FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. MODEL CROSS
SECTIONS AND SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SOME EMBEDDED CONVECTION
ACROSS THE SOUTH FOR TODAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STRONG
ISENTROPIC ASCENT FOR SOME DECENT RAINFALL RATES. MODELS HAVE
GENERALLY COME DOWN TO MAINLY ONE TO TWO PLUS INCHES ACROSS THE
SOUTH WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS FARTHER NORTH. THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK
SOUTH OF THE REGION. SO WITH THIS IN MIND WILL KEEP CURRENT
WIDESPREAD POPS FOR TODAY AND LOWER POPS SOME FOR TONIGHT. THE RAINS
WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY MORNING. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
WILL COME DOWN INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY. IT WILL PUSH
MOISTURE TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH ON LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS
CLOUDS INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION./17/

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SUNDAY MORNING A SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR
CWA AND LIMIT ANY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. A WEAK SURFACE LOW
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN GULF IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING
TROUGH AND RESULT IN RAIN CHANCES OVER OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE ONE ON
FRIDAY. MODELS SHOW BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF A
>120KT JET STREAK OVER OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES BUT PWS WILL ONLY BE
ONE INCH OR LESS AND INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED SO ONLY LOW POPS OF
LIGHT QPF IS EXPECTED. THIS SYSTEM WILL SHIFT EAST OF OUR CWA BY
MONDAY MORNING BUT A CLOSED LOW WILL DROP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
MONDAY RESULTING IN A DEEPENING OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS. THIS WILL INDUCE WEAK WAA ADVECTION OVER OUR REGION
DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND RESULT IN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS. THE
DEEPENING TROUGH WILL SUPPORT A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS OUR CWA TUESDAY. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL INCREASE
AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT AND THE HIGHEST POPS OF THE LONG TERM
WILL BE CARRIED ACROSS THE AREA ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
TUESDAY. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT SENDING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE
GFS IS MUCH FARTHER NORTH THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE CLOSED LOW
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND ENDS THE RAIN FASTER. RAIN WILL LIKELY LINGER
LONGER INTO TUESDAY NIGHT THAN WAS THOUGH LAST NIGHT BUT DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED TO RETURN WEDNESDAY. THE CLOSED LOW WILL LIFT UP INTO
CANADA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF OUR
CWA. THIS WILL LEAVE NEAR ZONAL FLOW ACROSS OUR CWA AND A WEAK
SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF FOR CHRISTMAS DAY. CHRISTMAS DAY
WILL BE DRY BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE NEXT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER THE ROCKIES. THE ECMWF IS MUCH
STRONGER WITH A CLOSED LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS BY FRIDAY MORNING. EITHER SOLUTION WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ALONG THE GULF COAST AND SENDS WIDESPREAD RAIN
INLAND. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD BE COMMON TODAY INTO THIS EVENING
WITH OCCASIONAL IFR RESTRICTIONS... PARTICULARLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE HKS/JAN TO MEI CORRIDOR WHERE THE HEAVIER RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.
/17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       50  40  53  41 / 100  93  23  11
MERIDIAN      51  41  57  43 /  85  97  32  11
VICKSBURG     49  40  52  39 / 100  86  18  11
HATTIESBURG   54  44  60  46 / 100  98  32  11
NATCHEZ       52  42  52  42 / 100  90  19  11
GREENVILLE    46  37  50  36 / 100  71  13   9
GREENWOOD     48  38  52  37 /  97  81  16   9

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

17/22/17







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