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000
FXUS64 KJAN 240147 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
847 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...EXPECT DRY WEATHER TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 50S WEST TO AROUND 50 EAST. PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
ZONES. ONLY ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CURRENT FORECAST WERE TO THE HOURLY
TEMPS AND DEWPTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST TRENDS. /27/


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ONCE AGAIN FOR MOST TAF
SITES. EXCEPTION LOOKS TO BE ONCE AGAIN FOR KMEI/KHBG WHERE FOG
WILL BEGIN TAKING VISIBILITIES AND CEILING DOWN TO IFR/LIFR AFTER
06Z...WITH A QUICK RETURN TO VFR BY 15Z. /26/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS DECENT CU FIELD ALONG THE GULF COAST TRYING TO
MOVE NORTH INTO OUR CWA BUT RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT WAS
SUPPRESSING DEVELOPMENT OVER OUR CWA SO FAR. THE RIDGES WILL SHIFT
EAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AND ALLOW MOISTURE TO INCREASE OVER OUR
CWA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. CLEAR SKIES THIS
EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME CLOUD COVER FROM THE WEST BY MORNING
AND PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT IS AGAIN EXPECTED ALONG THE HIGHWAY 84
CORRIDOR. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST OF THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS AFTERNOON THAT WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS THURSDAY. THIS WILL HELP A SURFACE LOW LIFT OUT TO
THE NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL LEND TO SOME BREEZY SOUTH WINDS ACROSS
OUR AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF BY AFTERNOON. A WIND
ADVISORY IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. THE BREEZY SOUTH WIND WILL
HELP A WARM FRONT LIFT BACK NORTH ACROSS OUR CWA ALONG WITH A
MOISTURE INCREASE. WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY AS TEMPERATURES TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 80S. AS MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY INCREASE THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH OUR
CWA. IT APPEARS THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL NOT MAKE IT INTO THE DELTA
UNTIL THE EVENING. THE BEST FORCING WITH THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK WELL
TO OUR NORTH AND CAPPING IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT STORM DEVELOPMENT
SOUTH OF I-20 BUT MODEL CONSENSUS STILL SUGGESTS 1000-1500MLCAPE AND
SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTHWEST
OF A WINNSBORO LA...TO YAZOO CITY...TO EUPORA MS LINE DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. THE MAIN RISKS SHOULD BE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE IN INTENSITY THE FURTHER EAST IN
THE FORECAST AREA. MODEL CONSENSUS STALLS THE FRONT NEAR THE HIGHWAY
84 CORRIDOR FRIDAY MORNING. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN HALF LIMITING CONVECTION BUT A
FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTH ALONG THE STALLED FRONT.
FRIDAY NIGHT THE STALLED FRONT WILL DRIFT NORTH AS A WEAK WARM
FRONT. NO CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED ALONG THE WARM FRONT.
/22/

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BROAD RIDGING WILL BE IN
PLACE FOR SATURDAY. THIS RIDGING WILL BECOME A LITTLE GREATER OVER
THE AREA WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE 80S...LOWS IN THE 60S
AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER. OUR NEXT BIG SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE
REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD AND TAKE ON A BIT OF A
NEGATIVE TILT. AS THIS OCCURS...A SFC LOW WILL ALSO DEVELOP ON THE
LEESIDE OF THE ROCKIES AND TRACK WITH THIS UPPER LOW ACROSS THE
SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO MISSOURI BY MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS A
LITTLE MORE INTENSE WITH THIS SFC LOW THAN THE GFS ON THE 00Z
RUN...BUT BOTH KEEP IT SUB-1000MB. AHEAD OF THIS...MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION WITH MODEL PW VALUES AROUND 1.6-1.8
INCHES DEPICTED THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL FALL AROUND THE 99TH
PERCENTILE WITH REGARDS TO CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...MEANING THIS SHOULD LEAD TO EFFICIENT HEAVY RAINFALL. IT
APPEARS THAT SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE ANYWHERE FROM 1-3 INCHES OF
RAIN(LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS) DURING THE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY TIME
PERIOD. IN ADDITION...MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS
OF STORMS FROM ABOUT SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE
TAPERING OFF LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH. WHILE THE DETAILS WILL CERTAINLY CHANGE OVER THE
COURSE OF THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...PARAMETERS LOOK GOOD FOR ALL TYPES
OF SEVERE WEATHER DURING THIS TIME. VERTICAL TOTALS INCREASE TO
AROUND 29-30C BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INSTABILITY WONT BE AN ISSUE
AS MODELS BRING MID 60S DEWPOINTS INTO THE REGION...WITH EVEN SOME
70 DEGREE DEWPOINTS. IT LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER INSTABILITY/IN TERMS
OF MOST UNSTABLE AND SBCAPE/ WILL COME ON MONDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA WITH VALUES AROUND 2500-3000J/KG. PLENTY OF SHEAR WILL BE
AVAILABLE AS LOW LEVEL VALUES WILL BE AROUND 30-40KTS AND DEEPER
LAYER SHEAR WILL BE AROUND 40-50KTS. WILL KEEP MONITORING THIS OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND WILL REMAIN MENTIONING THIS IN THE
HWO/GRAPHICS.

THE RAIN WILL EXIT THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS TUESDAY BUT
THE LARGE UPPER LOW AND SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN ACROSS THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE
PERIOD. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MOVE IT VERY SLOWLY TO THE EAST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...LEAVING THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
UNDER LARGE SCALE TROUGHING. THIS WILL LEAD TO COOLER...BELOW
NORMAL...TEMPERATURES INTO THE EARLY DAYS OF MAY. /28/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       54  83  61  81 /   1   6  25  13
MERIDIAN      50  84  61  82 /   1   4  29  12
VICKSBURG     55  84  60  83 /   2  10  26  12
HATTIESBURG   56  84  63  84 /   2   5  16  20
NATCHEZ       58  83  63  82 /   3   8  17  19
GREENVILLE    55  84  56  81 /   1  17  61   7
GREENWOOD     53  84  56  81 /   1  12  62   7

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$