Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 300852
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
352 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...VERY PLEASANT MORNING BEING
FELT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING
FROM THE MID 50S NORTHEAST TO THE MID 60S SOUTHWEST. WHILE MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE RECORDS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN FALLING OVER THE REGION...ELSEWHERE
LOW LEVEL WINDS HAVE NOT GONE CALM AND ALLOWED FOR OPTIMUM RADIATIONAL
COOLING TO OCCUR JUST YET. STILL...DO EXPECT CALMING TO OCCUR WITH
ENOUGH TIME FOR MOST AREAS TO BREAK RECORDS BY DAWN.

SKIES FOR THE MOAST PART HAVE BEEN CLEAR...ALTHOUGH CIRRUS HAS BEEN ON
THE INCREASE IN AR AND THE MS DELTA REGION OF LATE. THIS WILL BE THE
TREND TODAY FOR THE FORECAST AREA AS MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
STREAM OVER IN ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. ALTHOUGH DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT ABOVE 305K THETA GETS
UNDERWAY OVER NW PORTIONS IN ADVANCE OF THE WAVE BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...LOOKS AS THOUGH DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL
NOT ALLOW ANY PRECIP TO REACH THE GROUND UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. SHOWERY PRECIP LOOKS TO SPREAD OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY MORNING THEN WANE SOMEWHAT IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE WAVE
PASSES. NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDER WITH THIS EVENT AS ELEVATED LAPSE
RATES ONLY LOOK MOIST ADIABATIC AT BEST.

ANOTHER WEAKER WAVE LOOKS TO CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT BEING FOCUSED IN A SHALLOWER LAYER (305-310K THETA).
WHILE DRIER AIR ABOVE WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY BETTER LAPSE
RATES...STILL NOT LOOKING FOR THUNDER DUE TO LESSER FORCING AND STILL
MEAGER LAPSE RATES./26/

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION FOR MOST OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL EACH DAY AND NIGHT
WITH A SLOW MODERATING TREND CLOSER TO NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MODELS SUGGEST SOME DRYING LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR...BUT OTHERWISE A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE EACH DAY. WEAK WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
TROUGH WILL ACT TO FOCUS AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DUE TO
THE UNCERTAINTY OF TIMING THESE FEATURES...HAVE KEPT ALL POPS IN THE
CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY./SW/

&&

.AVIATION...ALTHOUGH CIRRUS AND EVENTUALLY AC WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
FROM THE NW...FLIGHT RULES WILL REMAIN VISUAL THROUGH THE PERIOD./26/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       86  63  84  66 /   1  11  43  22
MERIDIAN      87  59  87  64 /   1   6  31  19
VICKSBURG     86  63  84  65 /   2  15  50  34
HATTIESBURG   88  62  90  67 /   1   5  27  15
NATCHEZ       85  63  87  66 /   3  10  39  24
GREENVILLE    85  66  78  65 /  12  28  71  35
GREENWOOD     86  63  80  62 /   5  19  62  27

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$







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