Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 260538

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1238 AM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016

.UPDATE... Updated to include 06Z Aviation Discussion.

VFR Conditions are expected throughout the 24-hr TAF period. High
clouds will continue to filter into the region overnight. Winds will
remain light tonight before increasing to 8-10 kts from the south
tomorrow. Some areas of patchy light fog may develop near KHBG early
tomorrow morning but no impact to flight categories is expected at
this point.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 908 PM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016/

UPDATE...Evening forecast update.

DISCUSSION...Our weather during the overnight period will be
dictated by high clouds moving into the CWA from the west. Kept
overnight lows on the warm side of guidance as the cloud cover will
inhibit ideal radiational cooling that we have seen the last few
evenings. This cloud cover will also help to minimize any fog
potential. The HRRR tries to develop a few areas of patchy fog across
the Delta, but confidence is too low to include mention in the
forecast. Otherwise, the rest of the forecast is on track. /TW/

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 645 PM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016/

DISCUSSION...Tonight through Monday afternoon...
Persistence is the name of the game over the forecast area over the
next 24 hours. Conditions will continue to warm a bit through the
period as high pressure remains wedged into the region from the
east, and low level flow over the region becomes more southerly.
Ridging aloft will weaken somewhat as a trough begins swinging east
out of the nation`s mid-section towards the Lower Mississippi River
Valley. The result in the short term will be increasing high clouds
from west to east over the CWA overnight and into Monday.

As far as temperatures are concerned, the combination of very dry
soil conditions and decent radiational cooling will result in
another cool night.  Thus, lows Wednesday morning are expected to
range from the upper 40s to lower 50s. Then for Wednesday afternoon,
highs should again top out in the low and middle 80s. /19/

Wednesday night through Monday...the best chance for rain in our CWA
through Monday is Wednesday night into Thursday morning and this
will be a very low chance mainly over east Mississippi. Otherwise,
warmer than normal temperatures and dry weather will continue for
most of our CWA through Monday.

Weak WAA ahead of an approaching shortwave trough is expected to
lead to the development of a few light showers over east Mississippi
Wednesday evening. The shortwave trough will shift east of our CWA
Thursday morning stranding a weak cold front as it approaches our
northern zones. Models are in agreement today that the cold front
will stall north of our CWA and the rain chances will taper off
Thursday as the shortwave shifts east of Mississippi. With no change
in airmass, we will be left with a moister airmass than we have seen
recently. This will result less critical afternoon minimum relative
humidities. Otherwise, a persistence forecast resumes Friday with a
continuation of warmer than normal temperatures and dry weather
areawide through Monday. Normal highs run in the lower 70s and
afternoon highs will be mostly in the low to mid 80s through the
period. Normal morning lows run in the mid to upper 40s. Morning
lows will be more than ten degrees above normal through the period.


Jackson       84  59  82  58 /   1  15  20   5
Meridian      87  58  82  56 /   1  16  21   5
Vicksburg     83  57  83  56 /   1   4  10   4
Hattiesburg   84  59  83  58 /   1  16  23   7
Natchez       81  60  82  59 /   1   8  16   4
Greenville    83  56  82  56 /   1   3   4   3
Greenwood     83  57  82  55 /   1   4   5   3




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