Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 250650

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
250 AM EDT Tue Oct 25 2016

.NEAR TERM /Through Tonight/...
Upper level shortwave across the region is providing some upper
level clouds. Surface high pressure will be reinforced from the
north today, which will bring increasing onshore winds. Low level
moisture will increase in the afternoon, with precipitable water
values increasing to around 1 inch. However, the airmass will remain
mostly dry with just a slight chance of showers over the marine
areas tonight. After another cool start, high temperatures will rise
to near normal in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Onshore winds will
moderate overnight temperatures with lows in the mid/upper 50s
inland to the mid/upper 60s coast.

.SHORT TERM /Wed-Thu/...

Wed...High Pressure will build north of the region over the
Carolinas and breezy E/NE flow will develop along the coast and
expect isolated showers to impact the coastal counties but rainfall
chances will generally remain at 20% or less. Max Temps will range
from the upper 70s/near 80s along the coast to the lower 80s inland.

Wed Night...Other than a few isolated showers possible near the
coast expect fair skies inland and near normal temps in the upper
50s inland and lower to middle 60s closer the coast with some patchy
fog possible over inland areas but not significant enough to include
in the forecast yet.

Thu & Thu Night...High Pressure ridge weakens as it settles south
closer to the region and expect onshore easterly flow to weaken and
while a few isolated showers will be possible over the coastal
waters not expecting much activity to make it onshore so have left
pops silent at 10% or less through this period. Temps to nudge
slightly above normal into the middle 80s well inland and around 80
along the coast with lows continuing in the 55-60 range inland and
60-65 range along the coast and patchy fog possible once again over
inland areas.

.LONG TERM /Fri-Tue/...

Dry and Warm Conds expected through the period with above normal
temps as East-West High Pressure Ridge remains across the region and
this will suppress any shower activity with generally mostly sunny
and warm days with highs in the middle 80s inland and lower 80s
closer to the coast and overnight lows in the upper 50s inland and
lower/middle 60s closer to the coast with patchy fog possible around
sunrise each morning.


Prevailing VFR conditions are expected through the afternoon.
Stratocu will increase this afternoon and evening under increasing
moist northeast flow. SCT/BKN 1.5-3 kft cigs are possible late in
the afternoon through the overnight hours for the coastal TAF sites.


Winds will become onshore and increase today as high pressure builds
over the eastern U.S. Small Craft Advisory conditions will be
possible as northeast winds increase to 15-20 kts and seas build to
7 feet offshore late tonight through Wednesday night. Winds and seas
will diminish Thursday through Saturday as the high and pressure
gradient weaken.

Rip Currents: Low Risk today and Moderate to High Risk on Wednesday.


Afternoon RH values will bottom out in the 30-40% range over inland
areas remaining above critical values today with light NE Flow


AMG  82  54  80  57 /   0   0  10  10
SSI  76  62  77  65 /  10  10  20  10
JAX  79  62  81  62 /   0  10  20  10
SGJ  79  67  81  66 /   0  10  20  20
GNV  81  60  84  60 /   0   0  10  10
OCF  81  61  84  61 /   0   0   0  10




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