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000
FXUS62 KJAX 290735
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
235 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015


.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE AREA
HAS RESULTED IN A LIGHT FREEZE WITH FROST INLAND THIS MORNING.
TODAY WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AS CIRRUS CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE ATLANTIC
THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS BECOMING ONSHORE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMER TONIGHT AS WINDS BECOME SW WITH SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTING
SOUTH AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FRONT MAY PRODUCE A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS OVER SE GA LATE TONIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TREND OF
SHOWING PRECIP DRYING UP AS FRONT PUSHES INTO NE FL FRIDAY MORNING
DUE TO UPPER TROUGH ENERGY REMAINING TO THE NORTH. ONSHORE WINDS
WILL INCREASE MOISTURE ON SATURDAY BUT MEASURABLE PRECIP NOT
EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE EACH DAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING.

.EXTENDED (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL ZONAL
PATTERN SETS UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES WITH A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A SURFACE LOW SETS OVER
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WITH THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD SPREADING
RAPIDLY FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO THE SUWANNEE
VALLEY. LOOKING FOR 40 TO 50 PERCENT POPS LATE IN THE DAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER SHORT WAVE DIGS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY WITH THE SURFACE LOW MOVING TO THE VIRGINIA CAPES. THE
TRAILING FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AS THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION EXPECT 50 TO 60 PERCENT
POPS.

MONDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST COAST WITH THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM SWEEPING TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS BY EVENING. A 1030 MB HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL RIDGE OVER THE
APPALACHIANS AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA.

TUESDAY...THE FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES BECOMES MORE ZONAL
WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVING TO THE TIDEWATER VIRGINIA AREA. THE
FLOW AROUND THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE BECOMES ONSHORE SETTING
UP A BRIEF NORTHEASTER SITUATION. SHOWERS BREAK OUT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AND IMPINGE ON THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COASTAL AREAS AS A
COASTAL TROUGH SETS UP TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY...THE NEXT SHORT WAVE BEGINS TO DROP INTO THE UPPER GREAT
PLAINS WITH A SURFACE LOW BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE ALONG THE TEXAS
COAST AND THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE OLD FRONTAL SYSTEM BEGINS
TO WORK ITS WAY BACK NORTH OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME
OVERRUNNING SETTING UP DURING THE DAY.

THURSDAY...THE SHORT WAVE MOVE TO THE EAST COAST WITH THE AREA OF
OVERRUNNING OVER THE GULF OVER MEXICO MOVING OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES INTO THE AREA AND ANOTHER
NORTHEASTER SITUATION SETTING UP FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND WILL VEER TO THE SE THIS AFTERNOON AND SW THIS
EVENING AS SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH. STRATOCU FROM THE
ATLANTIC WILL ADVECT INLAND THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS BECOME ONSHORE
PRODUCING SCT CLOUDS 030-040.

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE HIGH OVER THE WATERS TODAY WILL RESULT IN
DECREASING WINDS AND SEAS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
WATERS FRIDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WHICH WILL
INCREASE WINDS TO NEAR ADVISORY CONDITIONS OFFSHORE FRI INTO SAT.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE ADVISORY CONDITIONS
OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  61  45  57  33 /   0  20   0   0
SSI  57  48  57  40 /   0  10  10   0
JAX  63  47  61  39 /   0  10  10   0
SGJ  62  49  62  46 /   0  10  10   0
GNV  66  45  64  38 /   0  10  10   0
OCF  67  46  66  40 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MARION-PUTNAM-ST.
     JOHNS.

     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-
     BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-NASSAU-
     SUWANNEE-UNION.

GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ZIBURA/SANDRIK/