Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 210613
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
213 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY CROSSING SE GA. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACCOMPANY THE WAVE AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE COAST.
WITH INCREASING GROUND LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS...PATCHY FOG
WILL PREVAIL...ESPECIALLY INLAND THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
THE WAVE WILL EXIT TO THE NORTHEAST LATE TNGT/EARLY MORNING WITH
ANY RESIDUAL PRECIP ENDING. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH SKIES CLEARING THIS AFTN FOR MOST
AREAS. UNDER THE DRIER AIRMASS...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
SIGNIFICANTLY WITH HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOWER/MID 80S INLAND TO
AROUND 80 ALONG THE COAST.

TNGT/WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE LOCAL AREA TNGT/EARLY WEDNESDAY.
WITH NO DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL PREVAIL WITH THE FRONTAL CROSSING. COOL AIR ADVECTION
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM
THE LOWER/MID 50S INLAND WITH 55 TO 60 COAST. SUNNY SKIES WILL
PREVAIL UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER
INTO THE REGION...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 70S FOR
SE GA/NE FL AND LOWER 80S FOR NORTH-CENTRAL FL.


.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW TEMPERATURES WILL TREND
A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
NIGHT.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE INFLUENCED BY POTENTIAL GULF SYSTEM.
THE LATEST EXTENDED MODELS POINT TO THE GULF ENERGY STAYING WELL
TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER...THIS PATH COULD CHANGE...AND CAN NOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT SHOWERS PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
WITH INCREASED CLOUDS AND MOISTURE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
NEAR NORMAL.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE
EASTERN US...WILL PROVIDE A PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW FOR LATE IN
THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. THIS COULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF COASTAL
SHOWERS...WITH INCREASING NORTHEAST FLOW. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOW END VFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT SSI INTO EARLY MORNING.
PATCHES OF MVFR IN BR WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE NE FL PORTS
09-12Z. VFR WILL PREVAIL AREA WIDE FROM MID MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE MORNING WILL BECOME
NW 5-10 KNOTS THIS AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
OFFSHORE FLOW 10 KNOTS OR LESS WILL PREVAIL TODAY...VEERING TO THE
NORTH TNGT. IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT...A NE WIND SURGE WILL
DEVELOP WEDNESDAY...WITH CAUTION LEVEL WINDS POSSIBLE FOR THE
OUTER WATERS. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE FOR LATE WEEK...WITH AN INCREASING
TREND IN WINDS FOR THE WEEKEND. EXPECT SEAS TO REMAIN UNDER CAUTION
CRITERIA.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH OFFSHORE/SIDESHORE
FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  83  52  75  47 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  81  58  74  55 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  85  56  77  52 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  82  60  77  58 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  84  54  80  51 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  85  57  82  53 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ALLEN/STRUBLE





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