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000
FXUS62 KJAX 131820
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
220 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...
CIRRUS CLOUDS ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY ARE STREAMING INTO OUR AREA AS DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM
THE CONVECTION OFFSHORE. THIS CONVECTION IS RESULT OF A STUBBORN
SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH OUR SERN COUNTIES.
CLOUDS HAS ALTERED THE WX PATTERN BY HINDERING THE SEA BREEZE.
MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THE TROUGH VERY WELL AND INSIST IT SHOULD
BE WASHED OUT BY NOW. THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONFINED ON THE SOUTH SIDE
OF THE TROUGH FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO THE OCALA NATIONAL FOREST
WHERE THE SEA BREEZE HAS FORMED. HAVE LOWERED POPS TO LESS THAN
20% ELSEWHERE FOR MUCH OF THE AFTN. THE GULF COAST SEA BREEZE
WILL PUSH INLAND AND WILL KEEP SCATTERED POPS ALONG THE I-75
CORRIDOR LATE THIS AFTN INTO EARLY EVENING. ALL ACTIVITY WILL FADE
DURING THE EVENING AND ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN FOR MONDAY WITH
SCATTERED P.M. CONVECTION WILL BE SCATTERED WITH A WESTERLY FLOW
RESULTING IN SEABREEZE COLLISION OVER EASTERN ZONES. UPPER TROUGH
AMPLIFIES OVER THE EASTERN U.S. ON TUESDAY WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVING INTO SW GA BY 00Z WED. THIS SHOULD BRING AN INCREASE TO
LIKELY AFTN/EVNG POPS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE COLD FRONT
SAGS SOUTH INTO S GA LATE WEDNESDAY. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
POSSIBLE OVER MAINLY SE GA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS SYNOPTIC LIFT
AND SHEAR INCREASES.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...UPPER TROUGHING TO THE
NORTH WILL WEAKEN BUT THEN RETURNS NEXT WEEKEND. RIDGING BUILDS
IN FROM THE SOUTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD MEAN A DECREASE
IN COVERAGE OF CONVECTION. STILL EXPECT SCATTERED DAILY CLIMO
POPS DUE TO MAINLY SEABREEZES AND HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS. AN UPTICK
IN POPS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND ESPECIALLY OVER SE GA AS UPPER
TROUGH BECOMES REESTABLISHED OVER THE SE. TEMPS AND POPS WILL BE
CLOSE TO CLIMO LEVELS.

.AVIATION...
NORTH TO NE FLOW HAS PUSHED SOUTH PAST THE NE FL TERMINALS
ACCOMPANIED BY MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDINESS. HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF
TS AT KSSI AND KEPT VCTS AFTER MID-AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH A SURFACE TROUGH PARKED OVER
THE MIDDLE OF THE WATERS. WEAK RIDGING IS FORECAST TO BUILD TO OUR
SOUTH WITH S TO SW FLOW DEVELOPING BY MONDAY THROUGH MID WEEK.
NOCTURNAL SURGES ARE EXPECTED EACH NIGHT AND SCEC HEADLINES WILL
BE POSSIBLE FOR OFFSHORE WATERS.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  73  94  73  93 /  30  30  30  60
SSI  75  87  75  88 /  10  30  20  60
JAX  74  91  74  91 /  30  40  30  60
SGJ  74  88  74  88 /  10  30  30  50
GNV  72  89  72  89 /  40  50  30  60
OCF  72  89  72  89 /  40  50  30  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

TRABERT/ZIBURA/GUILLET