Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 020129
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
929 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.UPDATE...
THE EVENING SOUNDING AT KJAX CLEARLY SHOWED WHY CONVECTION DID NOT
DEVELOP IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA TODAY GIVEN THE STRONG CAP AND AMOUNT
OF DRY AIR IN PLACE BETWEEN 800-700MB. ON THE OTHER HAND...A MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND WORKED
WITH SOME MODERATE LOW LEVEL SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG A LINGERING
SURFACE TROUGH AND SLOWLY ADVANCING ATLANTIC COAST SEABREEZE TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS THERE THIS AFTERNOON. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL ACCOMPANIED A FEW OF THE STORMS. IN FACT...AFTER AMG
JUST SET AN ALL TIME RECORD LOW RAINFALL TOTAL FOR THE ENTIRE
MONTH OF JULY AT ONLY .41 INCHES...AMG ON THIS FIRST DAY OF AUGUST
PICKED UP OVER 5 TIMES THAT AMOUNT WITH A DAILY TOTAL AT 2.21
INCHES...JUST A LITTLE SHORT OF THE DAILY RECORD OF 2.45 INCHES.

THE LAST AREA OF STORMS BETWEEN JESUP AND BRUNSWICK WILL CONTINUE
TO FADE OVER THE NEXT HOUR WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN
ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM REMAINING POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT...MAINLY
ALONG THE ALTAMAHA RIVER BASIN...BUT ALSO ALONG THE EAST COAST
LATE TONIGHT DUE TO SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL COASTAL CONVERGENCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. VQQ AND GNV COULD SEE SOME PATCHY
EARLY MORNING FOG BUT WE WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW DUE TO LACKING
CONFIDENCE. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE HIGH ENOUGH TO GO AHEAD AND
ADD VCTS AT ALL TAF SITES SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHEAST FLOW AROUND 15 KNOTS THIS EVENING WILL DROP DOWN TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2 TO 4 FEET
OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW TO MODERATE RISK IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  74  92  74  91 /  30  60  40  60
SSI  77  87  77  85 /  50  50  30  60
JAX  75  90  75  89 /  10  60  30  60
SGJ  75  88  75  89 /  20  50  30  60
GNV  72  92  72  91 /  10  60  40  60
OCF  72  92  72  91 /  20  60  40  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHULER/HESS/






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