Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 220711
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
311 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO NUDGE SOUTH...WITH THE BOUNDARY
MOVING SOUTH OF JAX...TO JUST NORTH OF A SGJ/GNV LINE EARLY
IN THE OVERNIGHT. MINIMAL DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE BOUNDARY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILING OVERNIGHT.

THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH...WITH THE BOUNDARY
ENTERING CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS AFTN...WHERE IT WILL STALL AND
BECOME DIFFUSE TNGT/SATURDAY. WITH DRIER AIR WORKING IN BEHIND
THE FRONT...DO NOT EXPECT ANY SHWRS/TSTMS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
BY SATURDAY AFTN...SOME MOISTURE WILL TRY TO WORK BACK TO THE
NORTH. THIS...ALONG WITH ONSHORE FLOW AND A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH
OFFSHORE COULD RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE NE FL COAST
SOUTH OF JAX.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE TEMPERED BY
DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW...WITH READINGS AROUND 80 ALONG THE
COAST...WITH LOWER TO MID 80S INLAND...AND SOME UPPER 80S/AROUND
90 FOR NORTH CENTRAL FL CLOSEST TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL RESULT IN LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID
60S FOR INLAND LOCATIONS AND AROUND 70 CLOSER TO THE COAST.

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
PARTLY CLOUDY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY
NIGHT. BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED COASTAL SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED INLAND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY...WITH COASTAL SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S AT
THE BEACHES TO NEAR 90 DEGREES WELL INLAND. NEAR NORMAL LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN HOT
TEMPERATURES INLAND. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED
TO THE NORTH WHICH WILL CONTINUE THE ONSHORE WINDS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COAST. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COASTAL SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED INLAND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH MOST AREAS
REMAINING DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NW WINDS 5-10 KT THROUGH
EARLY MORNING WILL BECOME NE 8-14 KT THIS AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING
TO THE NORTHEAST BY AFTERNOON...GRADUALLY INCREASING TO 15-20 KT
OFFSHORE. CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN FURTHER FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
WITH CAUTION CONDITIONS AREA WIDE. MARGINAL SCA WILL BE POSSIBLE
OFFSHORE SUNDAY INTO MEMORIAL DAY...BUT WITH SPEEDS MARGINAL AND
DURATION RATHER SHORT...WILL NOT ISSUE ADVISORIES. SOME
IMPROVEMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK TODAY AND SATURDAY. HIGH RISK POSSIBLE
SUNDAY AND MEMORIAL DAY UNDER PERSISTENT ELEVATED ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  85  61  87  64 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  77  68  80  70 /   0   0  10   0
JAX  85  66  83  69 /   0   0  10   0
SGJ  81  71  82  73 /  10  10  20  30
GNV  89  67  86  66 /  10  10  10   0
OCF  90  68  88  68 /  10  10  20   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ALLEN/ZIBURA



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