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000
FXUS62 KJAX 251511
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1111 AM EDT Sun Jun 25 2017

.UPDATE...Another hot and warm humid day in store for SE GA and NE
FL with precipitable water values near 1.75 to 1.85 inches. Surface
high pressure ridge extends from the western Atlantic into
central Florida while a cool frontal feature extends across
southern SC, central GA into the FL Panhandle. This cold front
will slowly shift southward toward the Altamaha River Basin toward
the later afternoon hours, giving plenty of heating time over
most of the region today. Light southwest wind will prevail ahead
of the slowly encroaching cool front.  The moist southwesterly flow
will be enough for scattered showers and storms to also develop
across our southern zones by early afternoon.

The middle part of our area (just north of the FL/GA border) to
just north of FL state route 16 will likely go deep into the
afternoon before seeing much in the way of convection, and this
will support the hottest temps and heat indices(100-110 degrees)
across this area.

Latest HRRR indicates numerous showers and storms will develop
along the pre-frontal trough this very late morning or early afternoon
across SE GA and slowly shift southward toward the GA/FL border
region during the mid to late afternoon before shifting into
Northeast Florida this evening.

Main concern with storms will be locally heavy rain and dangerous
cloud to ground lightning along the boundary collisions with slow
storm motion toward the NNE at 5-10 mph. Less than a handful of
storms may become strong to severe with a few of them exhibiting
wind gusts of 40 to 60 mph with with a dry layer evident on the
sounding 850-650 mb which would allow some of these gusts to mix
down to the surface as wet microbursts. Scattered showers and
storms again expected to again linger into the later evening or
even early morning hours late tonight with the pre-frontal trough
being the main focus.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR will prevail for much of the day, but numerous
thunderstorms are expected along the I-95 corridor late this
afternoon through this evening. IFR conditions in heavy rain and
gusty winds will accompany this activity, and we have used PROB30
groups at all but GNV to show this potential. Much lower chances
will exist near GNV, so we will use VCSH there this afternoon.
Storms near the coast will begin to wane by around midnight but
some additional rain will be possible after midnight, especially
near the coast.

&&

.MARINE...

Southerly winds around 10 to 15 knots will prevail through this
evening. A weak front will bring numerous storms to the waters
tonight and Monday. Winds will briefly become northeast around 10
knots behind the front on Monday, and then light and variable
winds are expected through Tuesday night. Easterly winds will
increase to around 15 knots on Wednesday and then settle to around
10 knots Wednesday night and Thursday.

Rip Currents: Moderate risk, mainly this afternoon, for increased
southeast winds with the seabreeze, and residual swell activity.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  91  72  85  68 /  70  40  30  20
SSI  90  76  83  73 /  60  60  40  20
JAX  94  74  86  72 /  60  60  60  30
SGJ  91  75  85  73 /  50  60  70  40
GNV  93  74  88  71 /  40  30  70  30
OCF  91  74  89  72 /  50  20  70  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

Cordero/Struble/Shashy