Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 230152

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
852 PM EST Wed Nov 22 2017

...Widespread Rainfall Late Tonight through Thursday for NE FL
and portions of SE GA...


A deepening long wave upper level trough was carving farther south
across the Gulf of Mexico with a broad surface low deepening
across the eastern GOMEX along a frontal zones that stretched
across the southern tier of the FL peninsula. The 00Z JAX RAOB
indicated increasing isentropic lift with low level NE winds 10-15
kts from the surface to about 925 mb, then winds shifting to SW
near 820 mb with increasing magnitudes up through about 450 mb in
response to the approaching upper level trough. PWAT has also
increased across the local area now up to 1.09 inches and TBW up
to 1.37 inches. Through the night, isentropic lift will increase
across NE FL, with widespread, persistent light to moderate
rainfall expected to overspread the Suwannee River Valley with
more discrete showers lifting northing up the FL peninsula and
over the adjacent coast waters north of the lifting frontal zone.
Current forecast was on track with general timing and convective
coverage trends, so no major changes. Temperatures will be mild
tonight under cloudy skies and NNE winds with values ranging
generally in the low/mid 60s across the area.

There will be a chance of isolated tstorms after midnight across
our southern most FL zones and over the adjacent coastal waters,
generally from Ocala toward Palm Coast southward.

Thursday will be wet and dreary for much of the area with waves of
light to locally heavy rainfall especially across NE FL and
along the Atlantic coast. Waves of lighter showers will impact SE
GA, especially NNW of Waycross. Temperatures will be held near 60
to mid 60s with isolated embedded thunderstorms possible.



Prevailing VFR conditions expected at the terminals this evening.
Deteriorating conditions after midnight with lower ceilings and
increasing rainfall from the Gulf of Mexico, with restrictions
first impacting GNV then spreading toward Duval terminals and SSI
through 12Z Thu. MOS, SREF, and NAM12 guidance were in consensus
of IFR conditions through much of the day Thu under persistent
rainfall and NE winds. Rainfall will tapper off Thu evening with
restrictions to LIFR possible.



NE winds 10-15 kts prevailed over the local waters this evening
with combined seas 3 ft at Grays Reef buoy 41008 and at buoy
41112 offshore of Fernandina Beach. These observations were on
track with ongoing forecast, no major changes planned with SCEC
conditions still likely over the outer waters with seas near 6 ft
through daybreak.

Rip Currents: Moderate risk due onshore flow.


AMG  56  59  48  64 /  20  30  50  40
SSI  60  63  56  66 /  40  70  80  60
JAX  59  65  57  69 /  50  80  90  50
SGJ  62  70  61  71 /  60  80  90  60
GNV  60  66  58  70 /  70  80  80  50
OCF  62  68  60  72 /  60  90  80  50




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