Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 061512

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1112 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1110 AM EDT Fri May 6 2016

Current forecast remains on track for today.  Mostly sunny skies are
expected across much of the region.  We`ll likely see some diurnal
Cu pop up in the next few hours.  Some more expansive cloud cover
may develop along and east of US 27/127 in central KY.  High
resolution models suggest that some sprinkles could occur along and
east of this area this afternoon. For now, given the relatively dry
atmospheric profiles, we plan on keeping things dry.

Good mixing will occur late this morning and into the afternoon.
Temperatures were currently in the upper 50s to the lower 60s.  We
expect temperatures to top out in the upper 60s to the lower 70s
this afternoon.  A northwest wind of 5-10 MPH with gusts to 15 MPH
will be possible through the late afternoon hours.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 303 AM EDT Fri May 6 2016

Surface high pressure sliding from the Ozarks to the Mississippi
Delta, and ridging northeastward into the Ohio Valley, will give us
mostly dry and pleasant weather today and tonight. Highs today will
generally be around 70 with a 5 to 15 mph northwest breeze. Clouds
will increase tonight and there could even be a stray sprinkle or
shower towards dawn north through east of Louisville. Lows will be
around 50.

On Saturday a cold front will approach from the north. A 5H vort is
expected to come in from the northwest and help spark showers/storms
along the front in the afternoon. Scattered shower and thunderstorm
activity should be relegated primarily to southern Indiana,
remaining mostly north of Interstate 64 through 7pm. There will be a
narrow window late Saturday afternoon in southern Indiana for a
strong storm or two.

Winds Saturday will come in from the WSW and should become quite
gusty by afternoon, possibly gusting into the 25 to 30 mph range.
It will be warm, though, with high temperatures around 80.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 313 AM EDT Fri May 6 2016

A cold front will sink southward into the region Saturday night,
accompanied by widespread showers and thunderstorms. The front will
become weak and more diffuse on Sunday but will still help to spark
some scattered convection.

Sunday night low pressure will move eastward from the lee of the
Rockies into the Kansas plains, pulling the weak surface front back
north as a warm front with a few showers and thunderstorms still
possible. Monday the warm front will be well north of the region
with the Plains low still off to the west, placing us in the warm
sector of the system. Will keep PoPs low.

Monday night the low will lift northeast into the Midwest.
Isentropic lift will increase over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys
with a strengthening low level jet from the Arklatex to the OV. Deep
southwest flow will bring Gulf moisture northward resulting in
increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms.

We will remain in this pattern for much of the rest of the week as
upper ridging holds over the southeast U.S. and the main cyclone
track stays to our north and west. As a result we will have
occasional chances of showers and thunderstorms through the week.

There is a general one to two inches of rain in the seven-day
forecast, though the convective nature of the precipitation will
lead to unevenly distributed amounts across the area.


.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 630 AM EDT Fri May 6 2016

N-NW flow will continue across Kentucky today as low pressure
becomes vertically stacked along the mid-Atlantic coast, and high
pressure over the Plains settles along the western Gulf coast.

Will need to keep an eye on LEX during the early morning hours given
the narrow temp/dewpoint spreads. However, current inclination is to
keep it VFR given winds holding at 6 kt and vis having recovered
back to 10+ miles.

Winds will pick up late this morning as mixing deepens, with
sustained speeds near 10 kt and gusts just over 15 kt. Some diurnal
cu is also expected, but this will dissipate and winds will lay down
with the loss of heating around sunset.

An area of isentropic lift associated with a weak impulse aloft will
swing through around daybreak Saturday. However, it now looks like
it will remain too moisture-starved to crank out any precip. For the
SDF planning period, will increase winds out of the west as the
gradient tightens ahead of the cold front diving south through
Indiana Sat morning.


.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


Short Term.....13
Long Term......13
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