Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 181120

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
620 AM EST Thu Jan 18 2018

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.Short Term...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 250 AM EST Thu Jan 18 2018

Departing upper low promises mostly sunny skies for us today, and
with surface high pressure to our south, we will see a stronger
southerly flow set up as well. Both argue for a warming trend
starting today. We should see highs to near the freezing mark today
and lows tonight10-15 degrees warmer than this morning. The
warming will continue for Friday, as a shortwave ridge moves into
the Midwest, allowing our temperatures to get to near 40 for highs.

.Long Term...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 250 AM EST Thu Jan 18 2018

For Saturday, a weak upper low will cross the Deep South,
undercutting our shortwave ridge over the Midwest. A few models hint
at some light precip in a deformation band north of this upper low.
Clouds associated with this feature could temper our warmup a bit,
but we are still looking at 40s for highs. Then by Sunday, we look
to be solidly within the warm sector of our next storm system. Highs
should reach well into the 50s.

Timing for a frontal passage and associated solid rain chances still
looks to be focused on Monday. For this system, we look to have some
pretty impressive wind fields above the surface. However, as usually
is the case this time of year with these systems, instability is the
big question on whether we see any of those winds mix down. Once
that front clears the region, we`ll drop down closer to normal for
highs/lows through midweek.


.Aviation...(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 620 AM EST Thu Jan 18 2018

Clear skies will prevail both today and tonight as surface high
pressure slides east along the Gulf Coast. Southwest surface wind
increasing to around 10 kt this morning, and then diminishing
slightly at sunset. Could see an occasional gust to 15-18 kt this
afternoon at HNB/SDF/LEX.




Short Term...RJS
Long Term...RJS
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