Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 292327 AAA
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
627 PM CDT Mon May 29 2017

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will continue through the next 24 hours. Any
showers or storms will remain well north and west of the TAF sites
even though some remnant clouds will move over the terminals.

Jordan

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 337 PM CDT Mon May 29 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Agitated CU field evident in visible satellite in higher terrain
of eastern New Mexico and southern Texas Panhandle appears to be a
little ahead of schedule than depicted by short term guidance
time line. Both HRRR and RAP dewpoints have generally been a
couple degrees off on the drier side than obs have indicated while
the weak upslope surface flow is doing its part as advertised.
Any convective activity should quickly decline diurnally.

Steady south-southeast surface flow will continue through midweek
helping to gradually build higher dewpoints across our area and
into eastern New Mexico. Weak upper level trough slowly digging
SSE out of southern California into western Mexico will result in
best surface pressure falls in southern New Mexico southward
tomorrow afternoon through early Wednesday though some showers and
general thunderstorms could wander into our western zones
overnight Tuesday into Wednesday.

By midday Wednesday the trough over southern Arizona begins to
shift north and east toward our latitude providing to enough lift
and instability for more widespread shower and thunderstorm
activity Wednesday afternoon through early Thursday. Anemic lapse
rates and weak flow aloft should keep storms below severe levels
in our forecast area though the potential exists just our south
but even then chances for severe are low. As shower and
thunderstorm chances continue into Thursday, embedded shortwave
energy aloft, increased surface heating and a weak dryline should
result in increased probability of stronger to marginally severe
storms especially east of the I27 corridor in the South Plains
into the Rolling Plains. Upper level flow will still be a limiting
factor though 30kt flow in in the southern jet encroaching our
southern counties could provide enough lift and ventilation across
our southern tier. Friday another dryline develops and could bring
another rough of showers and isolated strong thunderstorms if it
doesn`t surge too far east before a pronounced upper level
shortwave later Friday evening. Long term guidance does suggest
continued low end POPS through the weekend depending how slow or
progressive the shortwave troughing develops in vicinity of a
building ridge to our west. Temperatures will be at or below
seasonal normals with the exception of Friday as highs build into
the low 90s for most of our area as more westerly component in
surface winds behind the dryline warms us slightly.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$



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