Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 241102

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
602 AM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

VFR contitions next 24 hours. Breezy southwest winds.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 348 AM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017/

A trough aloft digging over the western U.S. will tighten the
pressure gradients over our region today and Tuesday leading to
dry southwesterly winds, low humidities and above normal
temperatures. As such despite the good ongoing greenup of
vegetation we will see elevated fire weather conditions. High
temperatures this afternoon are expected to be in the upper 80s to
lower 90s. Afternoon winds should be in the 15-25 mph range today,
then slightly stronger Tuesday in the 20-30 mph. Some increase in
high clouds is expected Tuesday resulting in ever so slightly
lower afternoon high temperatures.

For Tuesday night into early Wednesday models have strengthened an
upper trough digging into our are and are now showing a closed low
briefly developing in the trough as it passes through the South
Plains Panhandle area. As such, despite dry air at the surface,
models have been increasingly hinting at the possibility of rain
showers late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Any rainfall
amounts will tend to be small...trace to a tenth of an inch. The
bigger influence of the fast moving trough aloft will be to bring
a cold front through the area dropping overnight lows back into
the 40s or lower 50s Wednesday morning and afternoon highs in the
60s or lower 70s.

The cooler air will rapidly pull out of the area Thursday into
Friday as a deeper trough slowly digs in the Rocky Mountain
region to our west. We should see the dry-line developing by
Friday and will be watching for the strength and position of the
upper trough and the potential spring time thunderstorms as we go
into the weekend.




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