Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 212307

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
607 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017

VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 320 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017/

Consensus remains that most locations in our CWA have at least
a slight chance at shower and thunderstorms between tomorrow and
Monday. Best chances for more widespread rainfall tomorrow remains
farther to our north closer in proximity to the first of two cold
fronts that attempt to approach our area moving south through the
Texas Panhandle over the weekend.

ECMWF and NAM show signals of showers and thunderstorms developing
later tomorrow afternoon as moisture increases south of the front
and a weak upper level disturbance provides just enough lift
across the boundary and farther south into eastern New Mexico and
western portion of the South Plains by early evening. GFS has a
weaker signal for convection but does show a chance in the higher
terrain of eastern New Mexico in the evening hours. Any convection
producing outflow and further enhancing the surface front could
see more showers and storms move their way farther south into the
South Plains tomorrow evening before midnight. Similar set up for
Sunday along with similar disparity in model output. ECMWF and NAM
allow the second cold front to push farther south than the GFS,
which indicates a more diffuse front well to our north and spreads
diffluent surface flow across our CWA.

By Monday we`ll see weak convergence/dryline across eastern
New Mexico with the ECMWF and NAM showing sharper shortwave upper
level flow farther to the west than the more progressive GFS which
is again dry while the ECMWF may be overdoing the precip potential.
Overall, POPS were scales somewhat from SB guidance given lack of
confidence still in how far south the first of the two cold
fronts are able to make it. By Tuesday through the end of the week
we dry out and see temperatures rise back toward seasonably hot
levels as surface high pressure builds over the region, though
some chances exist for showers and storms to move off the higher
terrain of eastern New Mexico and the extreme southern Texas
Panhandle late Thursday and Friday, which isn`t unusual for this
time of year.




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