Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 161739

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1239 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017


Updated to include 18z aviation discussion.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1026 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017/


Upper level ridging prevails across the Lower Mississippi Valley
and the SE U.S. this morning. Low clouds are plentiful across much
of the Mid-South with breaks along the KY/MO borders and along the
TN River. Current radar trends show no precipitation across the
Mid-South attm. Removed pops for this morning and given the latest
hi-res model trends decreased pops across NE MS to the chance
category. Cannot justify likely pops in that area this afternoon
with the upper ridge in place and lack of a disturbance to
trigger activity.

Expect low clouds to gradually break up with temps climbing into
the upper 80s to around 90. Dewpoints are quite high and range
into the upper 70s across the Delta...West TN and NW MS. As a
result heat index values will climb above 100 degrees across much
of the area this afternoon.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 319 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017/

An unsettled weather pattern will continue across the Mid-South.
KNQA radar shows tranquil conditions thus far. However, a
shortwave has kicked off some showers across Northern Arkansas
over the last couple of hours. These showers may skirt Randolph
and Lawrence Counties this morning as the complex pushes northeast
into Southern Missouri. Meanwhile, another shortwave will move
through Northeast Mississippi today. Expect scattered showers and
thunderstorms to begin developing across Northeast Mississippi by
mid-morning. The showers and thunderstorms may become numerous by
the afternoon hours spreading into areas of West Tennessee near
the Tennessee River thanks to the moist airmass in place.

Highs will generally be around 90 degrees today. Although,
Northeast Mississippi will likely see readings stay in the upper
80s thanks to the convection. Southwest winds will advect higher
dewpoints into the Mid-South today. However, since highs are
expected to be a tad cooler than previous thinking then heat
indices should stay below 105 degrees as well.

Convection may linger across Northeast Mississippi into the
evening hours. Once that convection dies out then all eyes will
turn to the north as showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop along a cold front that will be sinking south through
Missouri. This convection may begin to affect Northeast Arkansas
during the early morning hours on Thursday. The line will likely
die out during the later morning hours before redeveloping during
the afternoon hours as the front sinks into the northern portions
of the Mid-South. Some storms could be strong to severe.

The front will continue sinking south through North Mississippi
Thursday Night. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will
continue for areas generally south of I-40.

Friday looks like the best day of the week as drier air will
filter into the Mid-South behind the front. Although, chances for
showers and thunderstorms may occur across North Mississippi as
the front will likely be stalled just to the south of the CWA.

Higher dewpoints will return by the weekend as the weak front is
expected to lift back to the north. Chances for showers and
thunderstorms will occur late Friday Night into Saturday as a MCS
is expected to develop near Kansas City and dive southeast thanks
to the northwest flow aloft.

Thereafter, expect chances for showers and thunderstorms to be
more diurnal based into early next week. Highs will generally
range from the upper 80s to the lower 90s through the period.



18z TAF Cycle

Lower ceilings continue to plague the region at issuance time.
Kept a TEMPO running through 16/20z for MVFR ceilings as latest
visible satellite imagery depicts the cloud layer breaking up
from SW to NE. Winds will remain southerly this afternoon between
7 and 10 kts, and remain southerly overnight. Winds will be more
southwesterly tomorrow between 8 and 12 kts as a front approaches
the region. Expect ceilings to remain VFR tonight and tomorrow,
but could be some VCSH before the end of the period, but have not
included as confidence on timing is low at this time.




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