Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 250406

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1106 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017

Updated to include the 06z aviation discussion.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 848 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017/

Surface analysis this evening places a 1022 mb ridge of high
pressure over Southwest Missouri and extending into the Mid-South
this evening. Water Vapor/IR Satellite trends still show some
mid/high clouds over the Lower Mississippi Valley. As of 8 pm CDT,
temperatures across the Mid-South are in the 70s at most
locations. Will make some slight adjustments to cloud cover over
North Mississippi to account for short term trends. Otherwise,
forecast overall is in excellent shape.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 255 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017/

Surface high pressure continues to build into the Mid-South this
afternoon. The high will slowly move from the Midwest this weekend
into the Ohio Valley by the middle of next week. Expect pleasant
temperatures with low humidity. Highs will range in the lower to
mid 80s. Lows will range from the mid 50s to the mid 60s. In
addition, expect generally rain free conditions. The only caveats
will be from potential MCS development in northwest flow aloft. A
couple of the models show a MCS developing across Southwest
Missouri Monday afternoon/evening that would possibly push into
northern portions of the Mid-South Monday Night into Tuesday. Put
20-30 POPS for Northeast Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, and
Northwest Tennessee for Monday Night. Also kept 20 POPS for the
same area for Tuesday morning. POPS may need be increased further
if models continue to be consistent with this MCS development.
Also, wouldn`t be totally shocked to see an MCS affect Northeast
Arkansas 24 hours prior to the one just mentioned as the NAM
develops one Sunday Night over Southwest Missouri but has it dying
before reaching Northeast Arkansas. None of the other models show
this MCS development. Have put a 20 POP in Randolph County for
Monday morning for this potential MCS for now.

Winds will turn back to the south by Wednesday allowing humidity
levels to begin creeping back up. Chances for diurnal convection
will occur Thursday afternoon across portions of North Mississippi
and Phillips County Arkansas. By Friday, chances for diurnal
convection will occur across the entire Mid-South. The chances for
showers and thunderstorms will increase further into the early
part of next weekend as a cold front begins to push southward
into Southern Missouri.



/06z TAFs/

Scattered to broken mid-level clouds will persist through midday
Sunday, gradually thinning out in the afternoon. Expect light
winds tonight becoming northerly at 5-10 kts. Winds will become
light and variable after 00z as the surface anticyclone moves
across the region. VFR conditions expected the next 24 hours.





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