Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 271135
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
635 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SEASONABLY COLD WEATHER HAS RETURNED TO THE MIDSOUTH. MUCH OF THE
AREA IS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S WHEN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
LATE MARCH ARE 5-8 DEGREES WARMER. A MIDLEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKING
ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL RESULT IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES TODAY KEEPING TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING TOO MUCH.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...ALTHOUGH DURING ANY
BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER...OR PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF
CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES MAY QUICKLY WARM A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN
EXPECTED.

SYNOPTICALLY...A STRONG RIDGE IS IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN THIRD
OF THE NATION WITH A DEEP TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT TO THE EAST RESULTING IN NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE
MIDSOUTH. WE WILL SEE A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES TRACK ACROSS THE
AREA FROM THE PLAINS TODAY AND TOMORROW RESULTING IN MINOR RAIN
CHANCES...AND EVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES NORTH AND EAST OF A
LINE FROM POCAHONTAS ARKANSAS...TO ATOKA TENNESSEE...TO TUPELO
MISSISSIPPI ARE EXPECTED TO FALL NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING LATE
TONIGHT. A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED...AND SOME LOCATIONS MAY
SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SATURDAY MORNING. NO ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED. HIGHS TOMORROW SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 40S TO LOW
50S. IT WILL BE A BIT WARMER SUNDAY MORNING...BUT WE MAY STILL SEE
SOME FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF WEST
TENNESSEE...NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL. ANOTHER
FREEZE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED TODAY FOR SUNDAY MORNING.

THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK. NORMAL LATE MARCH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN MONDAY WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY MIDWEEK. A BROAD WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE
AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...GRADUALLY BREAKING DOWN INTO ZONAL FLOW
AFTER MIDWEEK. NO ORGANIZED WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED NEXT
WEEK...ALTHOUGH WE COULD SEE RAIN SHOWERS OR WEAK THUNDERSTORMS
ANY DAY NEXT WEEK. IT LOOKS LIKE WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY WILL BE OUR
WARMEST DAY...MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 70S.

30

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING WHICH COULD BRIEFLY BRING SOME MVFR CEILINGS WITH THEM.
WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE NORTH AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS FOR MUCH OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR CLAY-
     GREENE-MISSISSIPPI-RANDOLPH.

MO...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     ALCORN-BENTON MS-ITAWAMBA-LEE MS-PRENTISS-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-
     UNION.

TN...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     BENTON TN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-
     GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-
     LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-OBION-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

&&

$$


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