Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 171501
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1001 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...14Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A SURFACE LOW OVER
WISCONSIN WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS MISSOURI
AND INTO OKLAHOMA/TEXAS. TEMPERATURES AS OF 9 AM CDT ARE IN THE
50S ACROSS MOST OF THE MID SOUTH. WILL MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
CLOUD COVER/TEMPERATURES TO ACCOUNT FOR SHORT TERM TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST OVERALL IN GOOD SHAPE.

UPDATED GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

CJC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 524 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

SKIES ARE CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S. SOME
LOCATIONS NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER COULD STILL SEE TEMPERATURES
DROP INTO THE MID 30S THIS MORNING SO HAVE KEPT FROST ADVISORY
GOING UNTIL 9 AM. HOPEFULLY THIS SHOULD BE THE LAST TIME WE DEAL
WITH TEMPERATURES THIS CLOSE TO FREEZING FOR SEVERAL MONTHS.

A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NORTHEAST IOWA THROUGH CENTRAL
MISSOURI AND INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS FRONT SHOULD NOT
AFFECT THE WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST DURING THE DAY SO IT SHOULD
BE SUNNY A LITTLE WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S. BY THIS EVENING THE COLD FRONT WILL START TO MOVE INTO
NORTHERN ARKANSAS. SOME SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AND MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA.

BY FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT WEAKENS AND FALLS APART SO IT APPEARS
THAT IT SHOULD BE DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER WITH
HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S. DRY AND WARM WEATHER
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON MONDAY. AS IT DOES
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS EARLY
AS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE COLD FRONT
GETS CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT THE CHANCE OF RAIN
WILL INCREASE. THE COLD FRONT WILL NOT QUITE REACH THE FORECAST
AREA ON TUESDAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTH SO THERE WILL ONLY BE A SMALL
CHANCE OF RAIN ON TUESDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE
DRY AND FAIRLY WARM. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE ABOVE 80 DEGREES
FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOUTH WINDS WILL
BE INCREASING TO 8-10 KTS THIS MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 5 KTS
OR LESS TONIGHT. LOWER CLOUDS...THOUGH STILL VFR...WILL MOVE IN
OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WEAK COLD FRONT MOVE
INTO THE REGION. A FEW SHRAS ARE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$







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