Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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745
FXUS64 KMEG 081132
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
532 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 448 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS PLACE AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. 09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES
A COLD FRONT FROM CLARKSVILLE TENNESSEE BACK THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI. MEANWHILE...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM
WISCONSIN BACK THROUGH NORTHEAST AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI. AS OF
4 AM CST...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH RANGE FROM THE UPPER
30S NEAR PARIS TN....AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ELSEWHERE.

THE FIRST OF TWO COLD FRONTS OVER NORTH MISSISSIPPI WILL DEPART
THE AREA THIS MORNING WHILE A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL DROP
FROM NORTHERN/CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH...MAINLY ALONG AND
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHERE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REACH
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.

INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND SHORT TERM MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
A POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID
SOUTH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE
TENNESSEE RIVER LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AT BEST
RESULTING IN LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND MINIMAL IF ANY
IMPACT. THUS...WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WINTER WEATHER
HEADLINES/SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS FOR THE TIME BEING.

A COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL SETTLE IN ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH FREEZING NEAR THE
TENNESSEE RIVER AND 40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS AND NORTH
MISSISSIPPI. MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TOWARDS
THURSDAY/FRIDAY. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY
RESOLVING ANOTHER APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TOWARDS THE
END OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND LEFT REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PRECIPITATION FREE FOR NOW.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
MAINLY OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
WHICH COULD PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VISIBILITIES. WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
     FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-
     MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
     FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
     FOR COAHOMA-DESOTO-TUNICA.

TN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
     FOR DYER-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-SHELBY-TIPTON.

&&

$$



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