Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KMEG 290902
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
402 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...

EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 50S TO MIDDLE 60S
ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. WINDS ARE LIGHT UNDER CLOUDY SKIES. THE
RADAR IS QUIET FOR NOW ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH...BUT THAT IS EXPECTED
TO CHANGE QUICKLY TODAY. HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS A
LARGE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS EAST OKLAHOMA AND
WEST ARKANSAS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SHIFTING INTO WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH JUST AFTER SUNRISE.

A DEEP TROUGH IS POSITIONED ACROSS THE WESTERN US...WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW FROM MEXICO...ACROSS TEXAS AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. MULTIPLE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR MORE
RESULTING AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
HAS MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH IN A MARGINAL OR SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IN BOTH THEIR DAY 1 AND DAY 2 OUTLOOKS. HOWEVER
MODEL GUIDANCE VARIES CONSIDERABLY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE
CONVECTION. DEW POINTS ARE STILL IN THE LOW 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE
MIDSOUTH. THIS MAKES ME SUSPECT THAT GUIDANCE INSTABILITY FOR THE
AFTERNOON MAY BE A BIT EXAGGERATED. THE GFS HAS CAPE VALUES
APPROACHING 3000 J/KG IN NORTH MISSISSIPPI BY NOON TODAY. THE 00Z
NAM KEPT THE HIGHER INSTABILITY FARTHER SOUTH...BUT THE 06Z RUN
SEEMS TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS...EVEN BRINGING ELEVATED VALUES
SIMILAR TO THE GFS INTO SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE. THIS SEEMS UNLIKELY
WITH LIGHT WIND AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOW 50S. DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR
SEVERE STORMS WILL IMPROVE THIS EVENING...BUT THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY...STORMS SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRIVEN BY THERMODYNAMICS.

LATER THIS EVENING...A WARM FRONT WILL SURGE NORTH. WE SHOULD SEE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 60 DEGREE DEW POINTS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE MIDSOUTH BY SUNSET...BUT AGAIN...LOOKING AT CURRENT OBS THIS
MAY BE EXAGGERATED. A 45-50KT LLJ WILL ADD ADDITIONAL DYNAMIC
SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. BY SUNRISE TOMORROW IS SHOULD BE
ORIENTED ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. EXPECT NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND LIKELY THE GREATEST CHANCE OF STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS.

BY SUNDAY...THE MIDLEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH WILL DEAMPLIFY
A BIT AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A
NEUTRALLY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY MIDDAY SUNDAY. DOWNSTREAM OF THE
TROUGH...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN MORE LIKELY ACROSS
NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND WEST TENNESSEE...WITH DECREASING RAIN
CHANCES WEST OF THE RIVER. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND IS LOW.

THINGS LOOK MORE CLEAR CUT EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL TURN
COOLER MONDAY. MORNING LOWS MAY EVEN DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S FOR
THE COOLEST PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH MONDAY MORNING. MOST OF US
WILL SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S. HIGHS SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

ZONAL FLOW EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK WILL TRANSITION TO STRONG
NORTHWEST FLOW BY MIDWEEK AS A STRONG RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES LOOK SEASONABLE FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEMS EXPECTED.

30

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDS EXPECTED FOR MAJORITY OF PERIOD. WINDS 5 KTS OR LESS
OVERNIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION
ON FRIDAY. SHRAS AND TSRAS WILL BREAK OUT ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONT...REACHING KJBR AND KMEM BY 29/18Z...AND KMKL AND KTUP
SHORTLY THEREAFTER. TEMPORARY LOWERED VSBYS POSSIBLE AT JBR AND
MEM WHERE BEST COVERAGE OF TSRA WILL RESIDE. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD ON ALL SITES.

AC3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.