Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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607
FXUS64 KMEG 152156
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
356 PM CST Fri Dec 15 2017

.DISCUSSION...

High pressure will gradually move east tonight. Pesky cirrus
clouds have lingered over Northeast Mississippi this afternoon,
but expect them to clear out by early this evening. Skies should
remain mostly clear for the remainder of the evening. Lows will
drop into the upper 20s to lower 30s.

Southerly winds and warm air advection will bring warmer
temperatures into the area for Saturday as the high shifts over
the Southeast Atlantic Coast. Highs will be in the mid to upper
50s.

Models are in good agreement with rain spreading into the area
after midnight as a SFC low develops along a stalled front near
the Gulf Coast. The SFC low will move quickly thus expect rain to
taper off between 9 AM to noon from west to east. Only expect
isolated light showers to occur during the afternoon hours.

The area will remain underneath southwest flow aloft through early
next week. Another SFC wave may skirt Northeast Mississippi
Monday afternoon into Monday evening. Although, the ECMWF and NAM
keep the system a little further south than yesterdays run
compared to the GFS. For now will keep POPS from current forecast
that leans a little closer to the GFS.

Models really diverge by Tuesday into Wednesday. The GFS brings
high pressure into the region while the ECMWF brings a low
pressure system across the Mid-South with rainfall. For now have
leaned toward the GFS.

Overall, temperatures will remain above normal next week has highs
start creeping back into the lower to mid 60s.

Models are a little slower with the cold front at the end of next
week. The ECMWF brings the front in Thursday Night while the GFS
is Friday. Showers will occur ahead of the front, but the biggest
impact may be the arctic air that will move into the region behind
the front. Models show the arctic air staying in place next
weekend as several SFC lows bring precipitation possibly of the
winter type into the Mid-South. Everyone with holiday travel plans
should pay attention to the forecast next week as detail become
clearer.

KRM


&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail for the period. Generally west winds
at 7-9 kts will back toward the southwest by this evening. Winds
will diminish overnight to 5 kts or less area wide. The pressure
gradient tightens tomorrow and surface winds will respond and
increase to 10-12 kts with higher gusts except at KTUP where
winds will remain a bit lighter.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$



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