Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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000
FXUS64 KMEG 280726
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
226 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AN UPPER TROF TO MOVE INTO
THE MIDSOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH BEST
CHANCES OCCURRING DURING THE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIME FRAME.

TODAY...ONLY SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
OCCUR ALONG THE KY AND TN BORDER DUE TO A WEAK FRONT THAT WILL BE
LOCATED IN THE AREA. HIGHS WILL REACH UP INTO THE MID 90S.

BY THE WEEKEND...EXPECT ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION TO
KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

ONCE THE UPPER TROF PUSHES EAST SUNDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL TRY TO REBUILD INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER...BOTH THE ECMWF AND
GFS SHOW A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA DURING THE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL OUT NEAR THE
AR/MO AND KY/TN BORDER AS IT RUNS INTO THE RIDGE. HAVE BUMPED UP
POPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL
AND NORTHWEST TENNESSEE DUE TO THE FRONT DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
HIGHS WILL RETURN TO THE LOWER 90S.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM 00Z TAFS. MVFR/IFR VSBY WITH OVERNIGHT FOG
AT MKL...JBR AND TUP...OTHERWISE VFR. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY KICK
OFF A FEW EVENING SHOWERS NEAR JBR. WINDS WILL BE CALM/LIGHT.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$







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