Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 172022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
322 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017


A ridge and surface high pressure will weaken slightly and shift
East of the Midsouth over the next 24 hours resulting in a shift
back to Southerly flow by late tomorrow. Another stronger ridge
will build in Thursday...and southerly flow will strengthen. As a
result temperatures will continue to trend a couple degrees
warmer each day and conditions will remain dry under mostly clear
skies. Highs by Friday will approach 80 degrees.

Friday into next weekend, a deep trough will dig over the Western
United States resulting in strong South to Southwest flow across
the the Midsouth. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to return
to the region Saturday night as a strong cold front develops in
the Western Plains. Increasing cloud cover Saturday will likely
keep temperatures below 80 degrees. There is still some timing
issues with guidance, but it appears a strong cold front will
sweep across the Midsouth Late Sunday into early Monday. Showers
and thunderstorms look likely Sunday into Sunday night. Parameters
do not point to severe storms, as the dynamics remain well to our
north, but it does look like we will get some much needed
rainfall. WPC`s extended outlooks have 1-2 inches across the
Midsouth..most of it falling late Saturday through early Monday.
The airmass immediately behind the front isn`t particularly cold,
but it should cool us back down 10 degrees or so. Highs early
next week are expected to be in the 70s with lows in the 50s.

Longer term guidance is hinting at significantly colder air after
midweek. Stay tuned.



18z TAFs

High pressure will continue to bring VFR conditions at all sites
with light winds.




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