Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Medford, OR

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000
FXUS66 KMFR 020855
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
155 AM PDT THU OCT 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE AREA
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING MAINLY SUNNY, WARM DAYS AND
CLEAR, SEASONABLY COOL NIGHTS. THERE WILL BE STEEP RIDGE/VALLEY
TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS EACH NIGHT, THOUGH THESE WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES. LARGELY, WE`LL HAVE OFFSHORE FLOW
DURING THIS TIME FRAME, BUT IT WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WEAKEN...THEN RESTRENGTHEN
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

THE FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES THAT ARE IN EFFECT THIS MORNING FOR
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE EAST SIDE ARE RIGHT ON
TRACK SO WILL LEAVE THEM AS IS. WE`LL SEE SEVERAL DEGREES OF
WARMING AGAIN TODAY FOR MOST AREAS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO
LOW 80S OVER THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS. AFTER A CHILLY MORNING, PLACES
LIKE KLAMATH FALLS, LAKEVIEW AND ALTURAS WILL ALL WARM INTO THE
LOW TO MID 70S FOR HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
PROVIDE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH A CHETCO EFFECT IN BROOKINGS AND
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. TONIGHT WILL BE CHILLY AGAIN IN
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND OVER THE EAST SIDE, BUT WILL NOT BE
ISSUING ADDITIONAL FROST/FREEZE PRODUCTS SINCE MANY AREAS WILL
HAVE ALREADY HAD A FREEZE AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL
DEGREES HIGHER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S OVER THE WEST SIDE (90 IN MEDFORD?) AND INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S OVER THE EAST SIDE. RECORD HIGHS FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF
OCTOBER IN MEDFORD ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S, SO WHILE IT WILL
BE VERY WARM, IT LIKELY WON`T BE RECORD-BREAKING.

MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE FLATTENING TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT
WEEK WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET STAYING TO OUR NORTH AND
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH CALIFORNIA INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN IS NOT ONE THAT TYPICALLY
PRODUCES MUCH PRECIPITATION AROUND HERE SO ODDS ARE IT WILL STAY
DRY. BUT WITH LOWERING HEIGHTS WE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME
COOLING. SPILDE

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WILL PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE AREA DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PATCHY LATE-NIGHT AND EARLY-
MORNING RIVER VALLEY FOG NEAR THE COAST. SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 3 PM PDT WED 1 OCT 2014...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE
WITH A THERMAL TROUGH AT THE COAST WILL MAINTAIN GUSTY NORTH WINDS
THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW END GALES THIS EVENING AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ARE EXPECTED BEYOND 10NM FROM SHORE SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO
WITH MODERATE WINDS ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT FOR AREAS WITHIN 2 NM FROM
SHORE WHERE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
STEEP TO VERY STEEP SEAS WILL AFFECT MOST OF THE WATERS. THEN ON
FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AS A COLD FRONT PASSES TO THE
NORTH...CAUSING NORTH WINDS AND SEAS TO LOWER FOR A BRIEF TIME. THE
THERMAL TROUGH WILL REDEVELOP ON SATURDAY...AND WINDS AND SEAS WILL
INCREASE. GALES ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT HIGH END
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE
BLANCO BEYOND 10NM FROM SHORE. SK

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR ORZ029>031.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR ORZ029>031.

CA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR
     CAZ081-082-084-085.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR CAZ082-084-085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM
     PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT FRIDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR
     PZZ370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ376.

$$

MAS/CC/SK



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