Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMLB 070100
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
900 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...WEST COAST DOMINATED CONVECTION TODAY MADE ITS WAY ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH WESTERLY STEERING FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS.
THE EAST COAST BREEZE AND AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COLLISION FROM NEAR
SANFORD TO NW OSCEOLA COUNTY ALLOWED FOR ADDITIONAL GENERATION OF
STORMS THAT MADE THERE WAY TO THE EAST COAST THIS EVENING. SOME
LIGHT RAIN IS LINGERING INLAND WITH SCATTERED LIGHTNING STORMS
PUSHING OFF BREVARD AND ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST LATE THIS EVENING.
EXPECT ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH THROUGH 11 PM AND PLAN LATE UPDATE TO
REMOVE EVENING CONVECTIVE CHANCES. CONSIDERABLE EVENING CLOUDINESS
WILL THIN OVERNIGHT. LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S.

PREVIOUS...TUE-WED...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL PENINSULA
ON TUE WILL BEGIN TO LIFT SLIGHTLY NORTH ON WED. LIGHT S/SSW MORNING
WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO SE/ESE EACH AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE FORECAST 1.70-1.90 INCHES ON TUE THEN DRIER AIR IS STILL
FORECAST TO INFILTRATE FROM THE SOUTHEAST LATE WED. LATEST MOS HAS
HIGHEST COASTAL POPS IN THE NORTH...TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS. WILL GO CLOSE TO THEIR 40-50 PERCENT VALUES FOR THE
NORTH COAST AND OVER THE INTERIOR. ON WED...20-30 PERCENT ARE
INDICATED ALONG THE EAST COAST AND AROUND 40 PERCENT FOR THE
INTERIOR. STEERING FLOW STILL LOOKS TO BE LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY ON
TUE...THEN SERLY/ERLY ON WED.

&&

.AVIATION...TSTM CHCS WILL BE ENDING FROM KMLB-KSUA BY 03Z WITH VFR
CONDS OVERNIGHT. ON TUE...THE ATMOSPHERE IS FORECAST TO BE TYPICALLY
MOIST. STEERING FLOW LOOKS WEAKER WHICH SHOULD FAVOR THE HIGHEST
AFTERNOON STORM CHANCES ACROSS INTERIOR TERMINALS IN THE AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND THE ATLC RIDGE MAY INCREASE TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT NEAR SHORE TO 2-3 FT OFFSHORE.
PREVIOUS...TUE-FRI...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL PENINSULA
TUE WILL LIFT INTO NORTH FLORIDA WED-FRI. A FEW STORMS MAY MOVE OFF
OF THE COAST FROM THE CAPE NORTHWARD TUE. STEERING FLOW THEN BACKS
TO EASTERLY WED-FRI AND SOME DRYING OCCURS...BRINGING DECREASED
STORM CHANCES TO THE WATERS. FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS WITH SEAS
AOB 3 FT. THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP EACH DAY AND
ADVANCE INLAND WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN SPEEDS ALONG THE COAST EACH
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

VOLKMER/WEITLICH



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