Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 031934
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
333 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...A SFC TROUGH ACROSS NRN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL BE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
LIGHTNING STORMS INTO THIS EVENING. THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM HAZARDS
WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES...GUSTY WINDS...AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. MODELS FORECAST THE WEAK SFC LOW OFF THE GA
COAST TO PULL SE AND BRING A FRONTAL TROUGH TOWARD NRN AREAS TWD
SUNRISE. WILL LEAVE ANY LATE SHOWER CHANCES UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE NEAR
THE FRONTAL TROUGH. LOWS IN THE MID 70S.

FRI...WEAK SFC LOW WILL PULL FURTHER OFFSHORE WITH NW WINDS IN THE
MORNING SHIFTING TO THE NE IN THE AFTERNOON...ASSISTED BY THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE. WILL FORECAST NEAR 50 PCT ALONG THE EAST COAST AND
LIKELY OVER THE INTERIOR IN THE AFTERNOON WITH FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE
AND FORCING FROM THE FRONTAL TROUGH. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER
90S MOST AREAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY...LOW LVL NNE FLOW ON SAT SHOULD BE INITIALLY RATHER DRY
WITH MOISTENING INTO THE AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST WITH ELONGATED MID
LVL CLOSED LOW NORTH OF THE STATE. KEPT POPS IN THE SCATTERED RANGE
FROM 40-50 PCT.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MID LVL CLOSED LOW
WILL RETROGRADE AND DROP TOWARD THE ERN-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE
GFS TREND IS TO ALLOW THE TROUGH TO RETROGRADE FARTHER WEST WHILE
THE ECMWF KEEPS THE TROUGH CLOSER WITH DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE
AREA. WILL CONTINUE POPS IN THE 50-60 PCT RANGE WITH THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE OVER THE INTERIOR EACH AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED...UPR TROUGH/LOW OVER THE GULF IS ADVERTISED WELL INTO NEXT
WEEK WITH ATLC RIDGE LARGELY EAST OF THE AREA. THE LARGE SCALE SETUP
REGIME WITH THIS PATTERN SHOULD FAVOR AT THE MENTION OF MID RANGE
SCATTERED PCPN CHCS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA MAINLY EAST OF KDED-KISM LINE INTO
EARLY EVENING WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE JUST INLAND FROM KDAB-KSUA. SHOULD SEE CONVECTION
ON THE WANE BY 01Z-02Z. FRONTAL TROUGH MAY BRING LOW SHRA CHCS TO
NRN TERMINALS FRI MORNING AFT 12Z.

&&

.MARINE... WEAK SFC LOW WILL PULL WELL OFFSHORE FROM THE FL EAST
COAST INTO SATURDAY WITH THE FRONTAL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
WATERS LATE TONIGHT WITH NW WINDS FRI MORNING BECOMING NE BE FRIDAY
NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 10-12 KNOTS AND SEAS
SHOULD REMAIN 2 FT NEAR SHORE TO 3 FT OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND. NNE
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR 10 KNOTS ON SUNDAY AND THEN THE SFC RIDGE EAST
OF THE AREA SHOULD ALLOW VARIABLE WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS BECOMING
ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  92  75  92  73 /  40  30  50  30
MCO  94  75  92  74 /  40  20  60  30
MLB  92  75  90  75 /  40  20  50  30
VRB  92  74  91  72 /  40  30  50  30
LEE  93  75  93  74 /  40  20  60  30
SFB  94  76  93  74 /  40  30  60  30
ORL  93  77  93  75 /  40  20  60  30
FPR  92  73  91  72 /  40  30  50  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

FORECASTS....VOLKMER
AVIATION/RADAR/DSS...WEITLICH/LASCODY



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