Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
FXUS62 KMLB 240151
East Central Florida Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
940 PM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016
Current...Strato-cu cloudiness coming off the Atlc will continue to
affect Brevard County southward overnight. Some cloudiness will also
affect inland locations of Osceola and Okeechobee counties as well.
Temperatures will remain milder along the coast where cloudiness
will remain in place with north winds allowing lows to fall into the
inland and northern spots under mostly clear skies. Have adjusted
mins a couple degrees higher along the immediate cst of Brevard and
Treasuer Cst counties, otherwise forecast is in good shape.
Tonight-Monday...The strong high pressure ridge over the SE CONUS
will weaken/elongate as it drifts SE toward the FL/GA line over the
next H24. tis will weaken the NE flow in place over the region, with
another mostly clear/pleasantly cool night followed by partly sunny
and slightly warmer weather Monday. Mins generally in the 50s, with
a few L60s along the Space/Treasure Coast barrier islands. Maxes in
the U70s-80F near the coast, and L80s inland.
Tue-Sat...High pressure north of the area will get reinforced as a
large 1037 high over the great lakes builds south and east early
next week. A wind surge of sorts will push into the region late on
Tuesday increasing the E and NE flow. All mid range guidance shows
deeper moisture to stay south of the peninsula. But with increasing
onshore flow and some moistening of the airmass by mid week, expect
some showers will develop and move onshore. As is typical, greatest
chances likely along the coast and late at night where frictional
convergence will aid lift.
.AVIATION...VFR. Through 24/14Z SKC inland (LEE-ISM to SFB-MCO) and
north (DAB) with SCT LCL BKN040 TIX-SUA. Aft 14Z SCT LCL BKN040-050.
.MARINE...Overnight-Monday...A light to moderate NNE breeze will
become gentle to light late tonight into Monday. Seas 3-4FT tonight,
decreasing to 2-3FT on Monday.
Tue-Fri...Winds will quickly increase late Tue as wind surge from
developing high pressure to the north will increase winds to Small
Craft Adv levels. Seas will build through the middle of the week up
to 8 to 9 feet, with winds/seas remaining in the poor to hazardous
range through late week.
.FIRE WEATHER...Min RH values in the L40s northwest of I-4 Monday
afternoon. Increasing onshore flow will gradually moisten the lower
levels and keep RH values well above 40 percent from Tuesday onward.
Rain-free through Tuesday with a slight chance for showers returning
to the area from mid to late week, especially along the coast.
The St. Johns River at Astor (2.64ft) will slowly fall through late
week, remaining above Action Stage (2.50) through Wednesday or
Thursday, then dropping below Action Stage.
At Geneva/above Lake Harney, the St. Johns River (6.83ft) will also
fall very slowly, but remain above Action Stage (6.50ft) through
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 56 78 58 81 / 0 0 10 10
MCO 57 81 59 82 / 0 0 10 10
MLB 61 79 64 82 / 0 0 10 10
VRB 60 79 62 82 / 10 0 0 10
LEE 53 80 59 83 / 0 0 0 0
SFB 57 80 60 83 / 0 0 10 10
ORL 59 81 62 82 / 0 0 10 10
FPR 59 79 62 81 / 10 10 0 10
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...Blottman