Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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436
FXUS62 KMLB 010024
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
825 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT-OVERNIGHT...QUIET/PLEASANT EVENING ACROSS ECFL WITH
CONDITIONS REMAINING DRY. LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW FORECAST
OVERNIGHT WITH CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS OVER THE REGION. ONSHORE
FLOW AND DENSE CI COVER WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS IN THE M60S/L70S (5-10F
ABV AVG).

SUN...PREVIOUS...HI PRES CENTERED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL DRIFT
TOWARD BERMUDA AS A LARGE DVLPG STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS/MIDWEST PUSHES UP THE OH/TN RIVER VALLEYS. RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING BACK ACRS THE I-4 CORRIDOR WILL KEEP CENTRAL FL UNDER A
SUBSIDING AIRMASS WITH LIMITED LOW LVL MOISTURE. PWAT VALUES HOLD
STEADY IN THE 1.00"-1.25" RANGE AN H80-H60 SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
STRENGTHENS IN RESPONSE TO THE RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD.

LACK OF LOW LVL MOISTURE AND MID LVL VERTICAL MOTION WILL SERIOUSLY
IMPEDE PRECIP DVLPMENT. THE 6KM WRF INDICATES ONLY ISOLD SHRAS AFT
21Z SUN WEST OF A LAKE KISSIMMEE/LAKE GEORGE LINE. THE 12Z MAV
GUIDANCE IS EQUALLY PESSIMISTIC WITH SINGLE DIGIT POPS THRU 12Z MON.
GIVEN THE LOW PWAT AIR AND MID LVL SUBSIDENCE...CAN SEE NO REASON TO
DISAGREE. MAX TEMPS SUNDAY IN THE M80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST...U80S/L90S W OF I-95.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDS WITH CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDS. LIGHT ESE
FLOW OVERNIGHT INTO SUN WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 10-12 KTS IN THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...OVERNIGHT-SUN...FAVORABLE BOATING CONDS CONTINUE WITH
ESE/SE FLOW 10-15 KTS OVER THE OPEN ATLC. SEAS AOB 3 FT. SOME SHORT
PD CHOP PSBL OFF THE TREASURE COAST DUE TO THE SHADOW EFFECT OF
GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SEDLOCK/CRISTALDI



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