Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 241439
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
938 AM EST Sat Feb 24 2018

.UPDATE...

...Moderate Rip Current Risk at East Central Florida Beaches...

Morning central Florida soundings at the Cape and Tampa indicate low
level moisture depth is limited to about 8 kft with a substantial
dry layer from H7-H5 associated with subsidence from the mid level
ridge aloft. Short range models continue to indicate some enhanced
low level moisture rounding the surface ridge with an uptick in
PWATs to around 1.3 inland this afternoon from around an inch this
morning. This should allow for isolated shower development initially
along a diffuse east coast sea breeze and then into the interior
this afternoon with low level SE flow. Made some slight grid updates
based on current trends but overall little change to going forecast.
High temperatures should reach the lower 80s coast and mid 80s
interior. A lingering ENE ocean swell will produce a moderate risk
for rip currents at east central FL beaches today.

&&

.AVIATION...
Conditions will predominantly be VFR across the area today, with
only brief reductions to MVFR in any isolated showers that develop
along and inland of the east coast sea breeze through the day.

&&

.MARINE...
Current observations at Buoy 41009 indicate SE winds around 10 knots
and seas 4-5 ft with seas also 4-5 ft at Buoy 41114 the last several
hours. SE winds up to 10-15 knots expected through this afternoon
with isolated showers possible across the waters. Previous...Today-
Tonight...Ridge axis north of the waters will gradually shift
southward and across the region into tonight. This will veer
southeast flow to a more southerly direction past sunset, with wind
speeds remaining around 10-15 knots. Longer period swells will
decrease slightly into today, with seas ranging from 3-5 feet.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  66  83  68  85 /  10  10  20  20
MCO  66  87  67  89 /  20  10  20  20
MLB  68  83  68  84 /  10  20  20  20
VRB  67  85  66  86 /  20  20  20  20
LEE  66  87  69  86 /  20  10  20  20
SFB  66  86  67  87 /  10  10  20  20
ORL  67  86  69  87 /  20  10  20  20
FPR  67  84  65  86 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

Volkmer/Sedlock



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