Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 221406
AFDMLB

East Central Florida Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
905 AM EST Wed Feb 22 2017

.DISCUSSION...

...Widespread Showers with Locally Heavy Amounts Possible...

Considerable showers with containing some embedded lighting strikes
will move northward over the entire area the remainder of today.
Rain amounts of one half to an inch will be common with some
locations receiving upwards of two inches mainly near the coast
before midnight. The upper air info from the morning release is not
particularly conducive for development of strong or severe storms as
the wind profile exhibits modest shear along with drying prevalent
in the H7-H5 layer. Expected storm parameters would contain sfc wind
gusts of 30 to 40 mph along with hail size from a quarter to half an
inch in the stronger storms. The earlier forecast update remains
valid.

The sfc low analyzed just south of AQQ attm with central pres
estimated arnd 1005MB should deepen a bit more as it moves across FL
into tonight. Local rain chcs will remain high until the parent upr
low clears east of the area on Thu.

&&

.AVIATION...Thru 23/12Z.
Prevailing MVFR with areas of IFR will continue through 23/00Z.
Heavier showers and sct storms at all sites will bring IFR conds
with sfc wind G30kt and cigs falling to NR fl 010 and vsby 1-2SM in
showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Today-Tonight...(prev disc) Poor boating conds as a storm system
centered over the Deep South/ern GOMex pushes acrs the FL peninsula.
High pres centered off the Carolina Coast extending down to the
Bahama Bank will interact with the GOMex system to produce a tight
sfc/low lvl pgrad acrs the region. A brisk S/SE breeze will result
thru midnight tonight...moderate to fresh nearshore and fresh to
strong offshore.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Friday for Flagler Beach to
     Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to
     Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County
     Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line
     to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Thursday for Sebastian Inlet
     to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet
     20-60 nm.

&&

$$

JP/DKW


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