Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMLB 300836
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
333 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY/TONIGHT...WEAKENING HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE GOMEX
ACROSS SOUTH FL AND THE ATLC WILL COMPLETE ITS COLLAPSE...YIELDING
TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE E-W ORIENTED FRONT WILL PUSH INTO
THE NORTHERN CWA BY ABOUT NOON...SLUMPING SOUTH TO AROUND LAKE O BY
SUNSET. LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE/FORCED ASCENT WILL PRECLUDE
RAIN CHCS OVER LAND ASCD WITH FROPA. JUST A SMALL THREAT FOR A FEW
SHOWERS OVER THE GULF STREAM...WITH SOME INCREASE IN LOW-MID CLOUDS
ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT. MAXES TODAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT REACH THE
U60S-70F OVER LAKE/VOLUSIA AND 70-75F TO THE SOUTH.

SAT-SUN...LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS ONSHORE BEHIND THE FRONT INTO THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND
EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE. THIS WILL GRADUALLY MODIFY THE DRY AIRMASS
ACROSS THE REGION AND MAY ALSO LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED
SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE ATLANTIC THAT APPROACH THE COAST
LATER IN THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS QUITE SHALLOW
AND WITH MOS POPS AT OR BELOW 10 PERCENT WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES OUT
OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

HIGHS 3-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SAT RANGING FROM THE MID 60S ALONG
VOLUSIA COUNTY COAST TO UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 FARTHER SOUTH AND OVER THE
INTERIOR. TEMPS THEN WARM INTO THE LOW/MID 70S ON SUN. OVERNIGHT
TEMPS WILL NOT BE AS CHILLY WITH LOWS IN THE 50S MOST AREAS SAT
NIGHT AND UPPER 50S/LOW 60S SUN NIGHT.

MON-TUE...MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH EASTERN U.S. MON
PUSHING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION INTO THE AFT. MAIN ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH...BUT DECENT
MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND AREA IN ASCENDING
REGION OF 250MB JET JUST NORTH OF FL SHOULD AID IN ISO/SCT SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH. RAIN CHANCES RANGE FROM 30
PERCENT OVER CENTRAL/NRN AREAS AND 20 PERCENT ACROSS OKEECHOBEE
COUNTY AND THE TREASURE COAST.

DRIER/COOLER AIR THAT BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL AGAIN BE SHORT
LIVED AS WINDS QUICKLY VEER TO ONSHORE TUE. HIGHS IN THE 70S MON
WILL COOL INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S FROM ORLANDO NORTH TO LOW 70S SOUTH
ON TUE.

WED-THU...MODELS ARE TRYING TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF THAT LIFTS E/NE
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND NORTH OF CENTRAL FL. HOWEVER PLENTY
OF RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES AND TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AND THEREFORE LEAD TO
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST THIS FAR OUT. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS
ACTUALLY SLOWED PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM WITH A MORE FASTER
MOVEMENT NOW INDICATED BY THE 00Z GFS. REGARDLESS OF SOLUTION
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE INDICATED BY BOTH
MODELS AS S/SE FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW INCREASE MOISTURE OVER THE
REGION. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS (30-50%) IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. CIGS NEAR BKN040 ASCD WITH FROPA FOR ABOUT 3-6HRS.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY/TONIGHT...WESTERLY FLOW HAS PICKED UP TO AROUND 10-15KT EARLY
THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NRLY AND INCREASE FURTHER TO ABOUT
20KT AS THE FRONT SWEEPS SWD THRU THE ADJACENT ATLC WATERS FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNSET. WINDS WILL REMAIN NEAR 20KT THROUGH AROUND
SUNRISE SATURDAY AS THEY VEER TO N-NE. 00Z NWPS MODEL RUN LOOKS MORE
REALISTIC FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY WITH
SEAS IN THE GULF STREAM. WILL INTRODUCE AN SCA FOR ALL 20-60NM LEGS
PLUS THE 0-20NM LES SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET. DECIDED TO STAGGER THE
START TIMES NORTH-SOUTH BY 3-6HR...GIVEN THE SWD PROGRESSION OF NRLY
POST-FRONTAL WIND SURGE.

SAT-SUN...ELEVATED NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 15-20 KTS EARLY SAT WILL
SLOWLY DECREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE VEER TO THE EAST. HOWEVER
SEAS OFFSHORE WILL REMAIN UP TO 6 FEET WHICH WILL CONTINUE POOR
BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER
TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY AS HIGH CENTER MOVES OFF SOUTHEAST
U.S. COAST WITH SEAS 3-5 FT.

MON-TUE...WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE S/SW UP TO 15-20 KTS INTO MON
MORNING AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION IN THE
AFT WITH SEAS UP TO 6 FT OFFSHORE. WINDS BECOME N/NW AND REMAIN
ELEVATED BEHIND THE BOUNDARY INTO MON NIGHT. WINDS THEN QUICKLY VEER
TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AROUND 10-15 KTS ON TUE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  67  42  64  51 /  10   0   0  10
MCO  72  45  69  52 /  10   0   0   0
MLB  70  47  68  56 /  10   0  10  10
VRB  73  48  69  57 /  10  10  10  10
LEE  71  43  68  50 /  10   0   0   0
SFB  70  44  68  52 /  10   0   0   0
ORL  71  46  69  53 /  10   0   0   0
FPR  72  49  69  58 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM SATURDAY
     FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD  COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM SATURDAY
     FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM SATURDAY
     FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM....WEITLICH




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