Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 221434 AAA
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1030 AM EDT Sat Jul 22 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Early Morning Cape sounding and 915 MHz wind profilers shows SW flow
in the low levels up thru 10k ft which should delay onset of the sea
breeze along the east coast. Meanwhile, scattered showers/storms are
already pushing inland from the Gulf coast and these should affect
interior sections of EC FL by early afternoon. An eventual collision
with the east coast sea breeze should occur later in the afternoon
near the coast. With precip water values near 1.9" and decent sfc
heating occurring, expect above normal coverage of rain/storms this
afternoon. So likely (60-70 percent) PoPs look reasonable. Mid level
temperatures are fairly warm (+9C at 700mb and -6C at 500mb). Cannot
rule out a wet microburst but the primary threats will be frequent
lightning strikes and very heavy rainfall. Weak steering flow will
produce slow storm motions so locally 3-4 inches will be possible in
a short time causing temporary flooding of some roads and low lying
areas.


&&

.AVIATION...
SCT TSRA will push east across the peninsula causing TEMPO IFR/MVFR
conds at interior terminals at LEE then SFB/MCO/ISM btwn 16Z-20Z. A
collision with the east coast sea breeze between 19Z-22Z should
affect several coastal terminals with TEMPO IFR/MVR conds. Activity
should diminish shortly after 00Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Low level ridge axis just south of the waters will produce a light
offshore flow this morning turning onshore in a sea breeze this
afternoon near the coast. The primary contribution to wave height is
a small east swell so favorable boating conds are expected. The
primary hazard though will be storms developing along the sea breeze
boundary near the coast and pushing offshore this afternoon. One or
more Special Marine Warnings look likely. Seas 1-2 feet,
occasionally 3 feet well offshore.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 10 AM, Shingle Creek at Campbell (SHIF1) was at 58.15 ft,
which is 0.15 foot above Action Stage but below minor flood stage of
59 ft. Afternoon storms may produce heavy rain in the basin which
could cause an additional rise. River level updates and forecasts
will be issued at least once daily while the creek remains above
action stage.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  90  74  90  75 /  70  40  60  30
MCO  92  74  91  75 /  70  30  60  30
MLB  90  74  90  75 /  70  40  60  30
VRB  90  74  91  74 /  70  40  50  30
LEE  91  76  90  76 /  70  30  60  20
SFB  92  75  91  76 /  70  30  60  20
ORL  92  75  91  76 /  70  30  60  30
FPR  91  73  91  74 /  60  40  50  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

$$

Kelly/Spratt



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