Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
FXUS62 KMLB 241355
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
955 AM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017
...Hazardous boating conditions continue into the weekend...
...High Rip Current threat and High Surf at the Atlantic beaches
A strong and well-stacked H100-H70 high pres ridge centered off the
Carolina Coast will be the dominant WX feature for central FL,
generating a deep and strong easterly flow thru the lyr. Morning
analysis shows a frontal boundary stalled over Keys/ern GOMex with a
band of enhanced moisture pooling within its associated trof...H100-
H70 mean RH values btwn 80-90pct. Morning RAOBs confirm this
moisture profile with PWat values btwn 1.00"-1.25" over the south
peninsula, decreasing to 0.75"-1.00" over the central/north
peninsula. Most of this moisture is locked up in a marine stratocu
deck trapped blo an H85-H70 subsidence inversion.
Radar has been picking up isold -shras over the Gulf Stream for the
past svrl hrs, but only coastal areas south of Ft. Pierce have seen
any of these make it onshore, due primarily to the slightly higher
moisture and closer proximity of the Gulf Stream to the east FL
coast. This precip regime will cont thru the aftn as the deep
easterly flow will limit the extent of any post frontal dry air
advection. However, measurable precip will be far more the
exception than then rule. Partly to mostly sunny skies thru midday
bcmg partly to mostly cloudy as patchy marine stratocu pushes
onshore. Inland areas will warm to around 80F...coastal areas will
hold in the M70s given the stout onshore flow.
Large and pounding surf remain a concern along the Atlantic beaches,
with breaking waves between 5 to 7 feet expected to continue through
this evening. A high surf advisory, along with a high risk for rip
currents remain in effect through this evening. Residents and
visitors are reminded to heed the advice of lifeguards as well as
beach patrol flags and signs.
Sfc Winds: Coastal sites...thru 25/00Z E 15-19KTS with fqnt G22-
26KTS...btwn 25/00Z-25/03Z bcmg E 8-12KTS. Interior sites...thru 24-
23Z...E 13-17KTS with fqnt G18-23KTS...btwn 24/23Z-25/02Z bcmg E 6-
Vsbys/WX/Cigs: Prevailing cigs btwn FL040-060. Thru 25/00Z...E of
KMLB-KOBE slgt chc MVFR shras.
Hazardous boating conditions to cont well into the weekend as a
strong high pres ridge centered off the Carolina Coast generates a
fresh to strong easterly breeze acrs the lcl Atlc. Data
buoys/coastal sfc obs measuring full blown SCA conditions...
sustained winds 15-20KTS with G25-30KTS...seas 5-7FT nearshore and
arnd 10FT offshore, dominant pds btwn 9-10sec. No sig changes with
the mrng update.
FL...High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for Coastal
Volusia County-Indian River-Martin-Northern Brevard County-
Southern Brevard County-St. Lucie.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Saturday for Flagler Beach
to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Saturday for Flagler Beach
to Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Sebastian Inlet to
Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-
60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20
nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.
Long Term/Impact WX...Johnson