Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 290129
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
930 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Ongoing convection at this late hour courtesy of an unseasonably
strong upper wave moving into the se states. Favorable upr difluence
and plenty of avbl moisture wl keep pcpn mentioned in the overnight
forecast as well as the chance of a storm or two through the early
morning hours...reverting mainly to a chc of showers during the
early morning hours. Measurable rainfall in affected areas of a
tenth to a quarter of an inch will be possible the remainder of the
night.

Previous...Deep southwest flow on Thu, with plenty of moisture and
500 mb temps staying cooler than normal, point towards
showers/storms marching west to east across the peninsula again.
There could be considerable debris cloudiness from the convection
off to our west in the morning, but enough heating should occur for
scattered afternoon showers/storms. Won`t deviate from our current
50 percent chance, which is close to the latest MOS values.

&&

.AVIATION...
Showers and embedded storms will bring vis and cloud reductions
through the early overnight hours. Categorical restrictions will be
most likely through around 29/05z. Activity will revert mostly to
-shra with ocnl sct-bkn cigs nr fl 040-050. The deep west flow
pattern will continue Thu, but expect ongoing convection in the Gulf
of Mexico in the morning might bring considerable debris cloudiness,
so timing/intensity of storms looks a bit problematical.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight-Thu...Frontal boundary dropping into north Florida will
result in southwest low level winds increasing slightly across the
local waters. Speeds should reach 10-15 knots offshore late
tonight and Thu. Seas 2-3 feet except up to 4 feet well offshore.

The main concern for boaters will be with scattered offshore moving
storms through midnight, then again on Thu afternoon/evening.
Some will produce wind gusts around 35 knots and frequent lightning
strikes.

.MLB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

JP/AC


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