Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 140200
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
900 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...00Z CAPE SOUNDING INDICATES DRY AIRMASS OVER THE AREA WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND HALF AN INCH AND NW/WNW FLOW ALOFT.
AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE OH VALLEY TWD THE MID
ATLC LATE TONIGHT AND ALLOW LOW LVL FLOW TO GRADUALLY VEER ONSHORE
BY SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS INDICATE SOME MARINE STRATOCU MAY PUSH
TOWARD THE COAST AROUND SUNRISE BUT MORE PREVALENT MARINE CLOUDINESS
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE MORNING AND THE AFTERNOON. LITTLE CHANGE
TO ONGOING FORECAST WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FROM THE CAPE SOUTH TO MARTIN
COUNTY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

SUN...FAIRLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS SITUATED ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. WEAK COASTAL TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST QUICKLY
DISSIPATES WITH ENE/E FLOW DEVELOPING AREAWIDE. WIND SPEEDS
APPROACHING 15 MPH ALONG THE COAST AND 10-15 MPH FURTHER INLAND.
DEEPENING ONSHORE FLOW IN THE LOW-LEVELS WILL LIKELY BRING MARINE
STRATOCU ONTO THE COAST AND FURTHER INLAND DURING THE DAY. THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS FAIRLY DRY BUT A SMALL THREAT FOR SPRINKLES/LIGHT
LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND
SPREAD TOWARDS THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON THOUGH QPF WILL BE VERY
LIGHT. WILL KEEP POPS UNDER 20 PERCENT HERE. INCREASING CLOUDINESS
SHOULD KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 60S AREAWIDE.

MON AND TUE... SE RETURN FLOW AROUND RETREATING WESTERN ATLC RIDGE
WILL INCREASE AVBL MOISTURE DURING MON. SFC HEATING COUPLED WITH
DESTABILIZATION ALOFT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES WILL BRING MENTIONABLE RAIN CHCS MAINLY FOR THE
COAST AND THEN INLAND LATER IN THE DAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT. LTST
GUID SHOWS THE LOW QUITE FAR NORTH THAN WOULD BE CONSIDERED MORE
FAVORABLE FOR LOCAL RAINFALL PRODUCTION.

WL KEEP THUNDER IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NORTH PORTION OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER SIGNALS FOR MAKING THIS FORECAST ARE TRENDING
LESS FAVORABLE DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY. WILL KEEP A MORNING
MENTION OF PCPN FOR THE LAND AREAS AS THE TROUGH/FRONT PULLS AWAY
FROM THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.

REST OF WEEK...(FROM PREV DISC)
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH EAST OF THE AREA LATER TUE
...BRINGING DRYING AND WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION. A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD FROM THE MIDWEST TO OFF THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY SAT...WITH A RIDGE AXIS SETTLING INTO THE
LOCAL AREA. TEMPS LOOK CLOSE TO NORMAL. LATE WEEK ONSHORE FLOW
SHOULD PUSH A FEW SHOWERS TOWARDS THE COAST...BUT POPS ARE TOO LOW
TO MENTION. OTHERWISE IT LOOKS DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR. NNW/N WINDS TONIGHT 5-10 KTS. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE EAST COAST LATE AS ONSHORE FLOW
DEEPENS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. MARINE CLOUDS SLOWLY ADVANCE INLAND
ON SUN WITH SPRINKLES/ISOLD -SHRA POSSIBLE MAINLY NEAR KDAB VCNTY IN
THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH ATMOSPHERE AS A WHOLE REMAINS RELATIVELY DRY.

&&

.MARINE...

.UPDATE...WILL CONTINUE EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS FOR THE OFFSHORE
WATERS WITH SEAS TO AROUND 6 FT IN THE GULF STREAM TONIGHT WITH
WINDS TO 15-20 KNOTS OFFSHORE. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL VEER TO NE LATE
TONIGHT AND ENE BY MID MORNING SUNDAY.

SUNDAY...BREEZY NE/ENE WINDS FORECAST OVER THE GULF STREAM WITH SEAS
3-5 FT NEAR SHORE AND 4-6 FT OFFSHORE. STILL RATHER POOR/ROUGH SMALL
CRAFT BOATING CONDITIONS WITH CHOPPY SHORT PERIOD SEAS.

MON NIGHT-WED...BREEZY SOUTH FLOW IS INDICATED FOR MON NIGHT. THIS
WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STORMS...MAINLY NORTH PORTION. MODELS
DIFFER A BIT ON THE TUE-WED WINDS BUT OVERALL THE TREND IS FOR A
WEAKER FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

VOLKMER/KELLY


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