Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 030046
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
945 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT-OVERNIGHT...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM EARLIER
TODAY HAVE TURNED INTO LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL ACROSS ECFL THIS
EVENING. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH IN
INTENSITY/COVERAGE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS BUT WILL STILL
RETAIN A SMALL THREAT FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT DUE TO DEEP
MOISTURE...VARIOUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND ENERGY ALOFT. LATE TONIGHT
CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STORM ALONG THE TREASURE COAST
AS SOME LOCAL SHORT-TERM MODELS SUGGEST SOME REJUVENATION OF
ACTIVITY HERE. IF THIS DOES INDEED OCCUR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION. OTHERWISE AFTER MIDNIGHT SUSPECT
GREATEST STORM THREAT WILL BE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT WITH SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE U60S/L70S.

WED...PREVIOUS... THE GFS INDICATES SOME DRYING ALOFT AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS NEARS AND POSSIBLY CROSSES EAST OF OUR NORTHERN
SECTIONS. STILL EXPECT PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO LINGER THOUGH
AND WITH A LITTLE MORE DAYTIME HEATING...AND STILL COOL TEMPS
ALOFT...STORMS WILL INITIATE ON THE SEA BREEZE. THE GFS MIGHT BE A
LITTLE TOO DRY...SO HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARDS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
WHICH HAD SCATTERED POPS AREAWIDE. SOUTHERN SECTIONS HAVE POPS
AROUND 60 PERCENT DUE TO A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS
FORECAST TO EXTEND ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TOWARDS OKEECHOBEE. A FEW
AFTERNOON STORMS COULD BE STRONG AGAIN WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING...
GUSTY WINDS AND 2 INCH DOWNPOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...CONSIDERABLE DEBRIS RAINFALL WILL LINGER LONG INTO THE
OVERNIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT.
WITH THE MOIST AIRMASS...MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES AND ENERGY ALOFT
CANNOT RULE OUT A SCHC FOR SHOWERS ANYWHERE OVERNIGHT. SUSPECT
GREATEST TSRA CHANCE WILL BE ALONG THE TREASURE COAST LATE
OVERNIGHT AND OUT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.

A LITTLE MORE HEATING IS EXPECTED WED...SO SCATTERED AFTERNOON
STORMS WILL RETURN...WITH THE INTERIOR TERMINALS HAVING THE GREATEST
CHANCES AND STRONGEST STORMS EVEN THOUGH SOME DRYING ALOFT IS
FORECAST ALONG THE I-4 CORRIDOR.

&&

.MARINE...TONIGHT-WED...LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW THIS EVENING IS FORECAST
TO VEER AROUND TO SE OVERNIGHT WITH WIND DIRECTION GENERALLY ESE/SE
ON WED OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. CHC SHOWERS/SCHC STORMS OVERNIGHT
FORECAST WITH CHC STORMS AGAIN ON WED WITH LIKELY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FROM NEAR VERO BEACH SOUTHWARD WITH THE CURRENT UNSETTLED
PATTERN. SEAS GENERALLY AOB 3 FT OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SEDLOCK/MOSES


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