Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 301909
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
309 PM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Currently-Tonight...Band of deeper moisture along the west coast
of Florida, from Tampa northward, has led to a more active west
coast sea breeze through this area. Outflow from storms that have
developed along this boundary will generate additional showers and
storms, especially as it collides with the east coast sea breeze
near to east of a line from Lake George to Orlando into late
afternoon. Additional boundary collisions and storm development
possible farther south over the interior through late afternoon
and early evening.

After midnight, showers and isolated storms will be possible with
band of deeper moisture approaching the southern waters and
Treasure Coast ahead of an easterly wave late tonight. Will keep
slight rain chances for the coast mentioned, south of Brevard
County overnight.

Sun-Mon...Increased moisture and cooler temps aloft associated
with passing wave through South Florida should generate higher
coverage of showers and storms through Treasure Coast and interior
areas south of Orlando Sunday. Have rain chances up to 50 percent
across this region with 30-40 percent farther north across the
interior. Drier air that builds in behind this feature will then
significantly drop rain chances into Monday with PoPs 20 percent
of much the area. Highs will continue to reach the low to mid 90s
with overnight lows in the low to mid 70s.

Extended...(Previous Discussion) A weak to modest wrn Atlc
(Bermuda) sfc ridge wl remain situated near central FL to the
eastern Gulf throughout much of next week. A northward extension
of moisture ascd somewhat with invest area AL97 racing quickly wwd
across the Carib looks to affect part of the area Tue and sct PoP
wl be used over much of the area. More importantly, absence of
ridging aloft combining with suitable low to mid level moisture
and light gradient flow will lead to sct diurnal boundary forced
convection. Inland locations should be most favored for daily pcpn
and cumulative rainfall during the period due to rather light
steering level winds.


&&

.AVIATION...Best chance for tempo IFR/MVFR conds in iso/sct
showers and storms will continue over the interior TAF sites,
through late afternoon and sunset. Convection will weaken over
the interior counties into the evening, and then may see
showers/iso storms move onshore late tonight along the Treasure
Coast.

&&

.MARINE...

Tonight/Sunday...High pressure ridge axis lifts slightly northward
as an easterly wave passes south of the region into Sunday. S/SW
flow overnight will become SE into Sunday afternoon as sea breeze
forms and moves inland. Wind speeds will remain below 15 knots
with seas ranging from 1-3 feet. Increasing moisture ahead of this
wave will generate increasing coverage of showers and storms over
the Treasure Coast waters late tonight into early Sunday.

Monday-Thursday...(Previous) A long period of favorable
conditions are forecast for the marine area during the work week
due to presence of high pressure in proximity to the waters. Winds
generally 10 kt or less and seas around 2 ft nearshore and around
2 to 4 feet beyond the immediate coast are expected.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  76  91  76  93 /  10  20  10  10
MCO  75  93  75  94 /  20  40  20  20
MLB  76  90  78  92 /  10  30  10  10
VRB  75  90  75  91 /  20  40  10  10
LEE  77  94  77  95 /  20  30  20  30
SFB  75  94  76  95 /  20  30  20  20
ORL  76  94  76  94 /  20  40  20  20
FPR  74  90  74  91 /  20  40  10  20

&&

.MLB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

Short/Long Term...Weitlich
Aviation/Radar...Volkmer


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