Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KOKX 021153
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
753 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST TODAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING BRIEFLY IN ITS WAKE THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
PASS ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE REGION ON TUESDAY...WITH
A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE AT NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FCST ADJUSTED TO CURRENT OBSERVATION AND TRENDS. RAIN CONFINED TO
THE TWIN FORKS OF LONG ISLAND DRIFTING WEST SOUTHWEST. ELSEWHERE
IT`S DRY WITH SOME SPOTTY DRIZZLE. THUS HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR
EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND REMOVED POPS ELSEWHERE.

LATEST HRRR SUPPORTS THE IDEA THAT PCPN DISSIPATES BY LATE
MORNING. THUS HAVE RAPIDLY LOWERED POPS FOR EASTERN LONG ISLAND.

OTHERWISE...UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY PIVOTING THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST. ASSOCIATED VORT MAX ALMOST STATIONARY OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...WITH THE 00Z MODELS SUGGESTING IT PUSHING TO THE SOUTH
THIS MORNING...THEN PUSHING OFFSHORE TO THE EAST AS THE LOW SLIPS
TO THE EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. NE FLOW WILL KEEP A FAIRLY MOIST
LOWER LEVEL IN PLACE BUT GENERALLY THINKING THE LOSS OF FORCING
ALOFT WILL MINIMIZE THE PCPN CHANCES.

SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HIGH TEMPS FOR TONIGHT AS WEAK WAA WOULD
SUGGEST TEMPS COULD PUSH NEAR NORMAL. HOWEVER...CLOUDY SKIES AND
PERSISTENT NE FLOW COULD KEEP TEMPS ON THE SLIGHTLY COOLER SIDE.
SIDED MORE WITH THE MAV GUIDANCE TO REFLECT THIS POSSIBILITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
ANY LINGERING PCPN BY THIS EVENING SHOULD BE OFFSHORE SOUTH OF
LONG ISLAND WITH DRY WX THEN ON TAP THROUGH FRIDAY. A SLIVER OF
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS SOUTH FROM CANADA TONIGHT/FRIDAY
BEFORE RETREATING ONCE AGAIN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN AS WELL
DURING THIS TIME...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...SO
SHOULD SEE CLEARING SKIES FOR A SHORT PERIOD LATE TONIGHT/FRIDAY
MORNING BEFORE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BEGIN STREAMING IN AHEAD OF THE
LOW. WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN WITH THE HIGH AS WELL...NOT
ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE FORM OF FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT.

HAVE MORE OF A HANDLE ON TEMPS FOR TONIGHT/TOMORROW...USING
GENERALLY A BLEND OF THE MET/MAV GUIDANCE. TEMPS TONIGHT EXPECTED
TO BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE. WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ON FRIDAY AND WAA...SHOULD SEE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ALL NWP GUIDANCE REMAINS VERY CONSISTENT WITH A COLD FROPA ON
SATURDAY. PCPN MOVES IN FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE MORNING AND EXITS IN
THE AFTN WITH CLEARING QUICKLY DEVELOPING BY SATURDAY EVENING.

HAVE CUT PREVIOUS FORECAST QPF IN COORDINATION WITH RIVER FORECAST
CENTERS. EXPECTING AROUND 1/2 INCH WITH 3/4 INCH UP IN THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY. NO HYDRO ISSUES EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. CLOUDS START INCREASING LATE
MONDAY WITH WAA. OVER-RUNNING PATTERN CONTINUES ON TUES WITH CHC
POPS FOR LGT RA. WEAK AND DIFFUSE COLD FROPA PASSAGE EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. HAVE MADE IT DRY ON
WEDNESDAY WITH TIMING OF COLD FROPA.

LOWERED TEMPS AND MADE FOR NON-DIURNAL PATTERN ON SATURDAY WITH THE
PCPN. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ON SUNDAY...BUT WE QUICKLY RETURN TO NORMAL
ON MONDAY AND THEN A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDS FORESEEN THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WELL E OF CAPE COD WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY...
WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE AREA MOVES TO THE EAST...
ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD DOWN FROM NEW ENGLAND.


MVFR CIGS SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD TODAY...NOT LIFTING TO VFR UNTIL
19Z-22Z FROM WEST TO EAST. N-NE FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KT
THIS MORNING...WITH AN OCNL GUST UP TO 20 KT ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST...THEN DIMINISHING TO UNDER 10 KT AS VFR CONDS ARRIVE.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WINDS AND FLIGHT CAT.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WINDS AND FLIGHT CAT.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WINDS AND FLIGHT CAT.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES  SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WINDS AND FLIGHT CAT.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CIGS COULD BE PREVAILING FROM LATE
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WINDS AND FLIGHT CAT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRI THROUGH MON...

.FRI...VFR.

.FRI NIGHT...MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE LATE AT THE NYC METRO AND LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY TERMINALS.

.SAT...RAIN WITH IFR CONDS AND SE WINDS 15-20G25KT. COLD FROPA
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AT THE NYC METRO AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY
TERMINALS...FOLLOWED BY VFR CONDS AND W WIND G20KT.

.SAT NIGHT...RAIN WITH IFR CONDS EARLY AT THE CT/LONG ISLAND
TERMINALS...THEN COLD FROPA WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR. POST-FRONTAL
W WINDS G25KT.

.SUNDAY...VFR. W WINDS G20KT.

.MON...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
MINIMAL SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE WATERS LESS THE
GREAT SOUTH BAY...NY HARBOR AND THE WESTERN SOUND AS NE FLOW
INCREASES BETWEEN THE LOW OFFSHORE AND THE HIGH DIGGING DOWN FROM
THE NORTH. GUSTS BETWEEN 23 TO 28 KT EXPECTED DURING THE DAY
TODAY...THEN DIMINISHING TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS
WITH HIGH BUILDING FURTHER OVER THE WATERS. SEAS BUILD TODAY WITH
THE STRENGTHENING FLOW...WITH 5-9 FT POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS.

OCNL GUSTS UP TO 25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING/EARLY
OVERNIGHT FOR THE BAYS AND LONG ISLAND SOUND. THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
NOT ENOUGH TO EXTEND THE SCA AT THIS TIME OVER THOSE WATERS. STILL
EXPECTING GUSTS TO 25 KT AND SEAS ABOVE 5 FT ON THE OCEAN...AND
IN FACT EXPECTING THE 5 FT SEAS TO CONTINUE SO EXTENDED THE SCA
OVER THE OCEAN FOR FRIDAY.

ON THE OCEAN...SCA CONDS CAN BE EXPECTED THRU NEXT WED...WITH
PERHAPS A BRIEF RESPITE FOR PORTIONS OF MON. ELSEWHERE...25KT
WINDS POSSIBLE SAT-SUN BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND A CDFNT. OTHERWISE
THEY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 10-20KT RANGE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRI EVENING. EXPECTING
AROUND 1/2 INCH WITH 3/4 UP IN THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     340.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...SEARS/TONGUE
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...TONGUE
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...SEARS/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...SEARS/TONGUE





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