Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KOKX 060921
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
421 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH SATURDAY AS A
CLIPPER SYSTEM TRACKS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK SOUTHERN
BRANCH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRES EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND NOSING INTO THE NORTHEAST WILL PROVIDE DRY AND
SUNNY...BUT COLD CONDITIONS TODAY. NW FLOW WILL BECOME SW THIS
AFTN WITH H85 TEMPS BETWEEN -10C AND -15C. HIGHS WILL BE 20 AND
25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...LOWER TO MID 20S.

NO RECORD LOWS HAVE BEEN BROKEN AS OF 5 AM...HOWEVER THE
POSSIBILITY REMAINS. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR CURRENT RECORD
LOWS FOR TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
A MEAN TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NE QUARTER OF THE CONUS
THROUGH SAT...ALTHOUGH THE FLOW ALOFT WILL FLATTEN. A SHORTWAVE
PASSES THROUGH TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT
IN LIMITED MOISTURE AND KEEP CONDS DRY. MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED WITH ITS PASSAGE. ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THESE CONDS WITH A FRESH SNOWPACK ON
THE GROUND WILL RESULT IN AN OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT.
LOWS WILL AGAIN BE 20-25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...IN THE LOWER TEENS
AT THE COAST AND SINGLE DIGITS INLAND.

THE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES ON SAT AS A CLIPPER
SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HAVE MAINTAINED SCHC
POPS FOR ORANGE COUNTY AS PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVES
TOWARDS THE AREA...ALTHOUGH ANY PCPN MAY NOT MAKE IT IN UNTIL AFT
00Z SUN. WAA UNDER A CONTINUING SW FLOW WILL RESULT IN HIGHS STILL
BELOW NORMAL...ALTHOUGH MANY LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH THE FREEZING
MARK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND IS ON TAP THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH RESIDES ACROSS EASTERN CANADA...THE GREAT
LAKES...AND NORTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SERIES OF WEAK
IMPULSES PASSING TO THE NORTH...THE STRONGEST OF WHICH WILL SEND A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SAT NIGHT. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RESIDE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS EAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
THIS WILL KEEP THE REGION UNDER A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WESTERLY FLOW
WITH PAC ORIGINS.

IN ADDITION...A CONFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN
BRANCHES OF THE POLAR JET WILL INITIALLY RESIDE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY
AND CAROLINAS...BUT THEN GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER HEIGHTS ALOFT AND
TEMPS INCREASING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY WED AND THU.
ADDITIONALLY...THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK SOUTHERN BRANCH STORM TO PASS
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUE NIGHT. THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME
LOOKS TO BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO BE SPARED PCPN. SUBSEQUENT MODELS
TRENDS THOUGH WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. VERTICAL TEMP PROFILES WOULD
SUPPORT RAIN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL PASS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

VFR. NNW WINDS BCMG VAR THIS AFTN...THEN LIGHT WSW LATE DAY/EARLY
EVE.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS STILL REACHING SCA LEVELS EARLY
THIS MORNING...HOWEVER GUIDANCE IN INDICATING SUB-ADVSY CONDS
AROUND 12Z. THE RUC HOLDS ON TO GUSTS A FEW HOURS LONGER...SO HAVE
MAINTAINED THE ADVSY THROUGH 10 AM. SUB-ADVSY CONDS THEN PREVAIL
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO TIGHTEN ON SAT
WITH MARGINAL SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN DURING THE AFTN.

LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING ON THE OCEAN
WATERS AS WELL...BUT WILL CEASE DURING THE AFTN AS WINDS AND SEAS
DIMINISH.

A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WESTERLY FLOW AT 10-15 KT WILL RESULT IN
SUB-ADVSY CONDS SUN-TUE.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

HOWEVER...TEMPS FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE 40S MAY RESULT IN THE START
OF ICE BREAK UP ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR TODAY MARCH 6

EWR......12/2007
BDR......11/2007
NYC.......6/1872
LGA......14/2007
JFK......13/2007
ISP......12/2007

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA WEATHER RADIO WEEKLY TEST WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL FRIDAY BETWEEN
11 AM AND NOON DUE TO ON GOING HAZARDOUS WEATHER.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$





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