Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KOKX 261833
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
133 PM EST FRI DEC 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...THEN SLIDE
EAST LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. THE FRONT WILL ENTER THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND THEN PASS
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...FOLLOWED BY COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK. MULTIPLE LOWS WILL
PASS TO THE SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SUNNY AND SOMEWHAT MILD EARLY WINTER AFTERNOON EXPECTED TODAY.
BROAD RIDGING BUILDING UP THE EAST COAST...A LIGHT W-NW FLOW AND
H8 TEMPS AROUND 6C SHOULD YIELD SFC HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S
AND LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND DESERT SW FOUR
CORNERS THIS AFTN WILL SHEAR OUT INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
NEARBY SE CANADA BY SAT NIGHT...WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
APPROACHING SAT NIGHT. A DEEP SW FLOW DEVELOPING ON SAT AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL TRANSPORT WARMER AIR INTO THE AREA. HIGHS ON SAT
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 50S...AND
UPPER 50S ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION OVER URBAN NE NJ.

THE APPROACHING FRONT SHOULD BRING INCREASING CLOUDS SAT NIGHT...
WITH SOME SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS LATE ESPECIALLY WELL NORTH/WEST OF
NYC AS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENTER
THE AREA. EXPECT LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE LOWER/MID 40S IN NYC METRO
AND COASTAL SECTIONS...AND MID/UPPER 30S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL...IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS...RIDGING FLATTENS GOING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS LEAVES A ZONAL FLOW THROUGH MIDWEEK AND THEN
A TREND TOWARD MORE OF A TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE
END OF THE WEEK.

THE FRONT WILL ENTER THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND PASS NOT TO FAR OFF TO
THE SE SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRES DEVELOPING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY AND PASSING S OF LONG ISLAND SUN NIGHT/MON. MULTIPLE
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDE ALONG THE FRONT LATER
IN THE WEEK. ONE BIG FEATURE TO NOTE NEXT WEEK IS THE VERY STRONG
HIGH MOVING INTO THE NW STATES....WITH A VERY COLD AIR MASS THAT
GRADUALLY MOVES SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE WEEK.

IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...CHANCE POP WITH THE FRONT ON
SUNDAY...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE POP MAINLY FOR NYC METRO AND LONG
ISLAND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON EVENING. COLDER AIR IN PLACE HERE
BUT AMOUNTS VERY LIGHT...A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OR LESS. THE
PCPN WILL BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW...BUT AGAIN WITH
AFOREMENTIONED LIGHT AMOUNTS...NO ACCUMULATION OF ANY SNOW IS
FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES OVERALL A COLDER TREND. ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS
SUNDAY...NEAR NORMAL MONDAY...AND BELOW NORMAL THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SKC AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH TODAY. WNW SFC WINDS
LIGHTEN THIS AFTN AS THEY BACKS TO THE W.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: GRADUAL BACKING OF WND DIRECTION TO WSW THIS
AFTN.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: GRADUAL BACKING OF WIND DIRECTION TO W THIS
AFTN. DIRECTION STRADDLES 310 MAG THROUGH 20Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: GRADUAL BACKING OF WIND DIRECTION TO W THIS
AFTN. DIRECTION STRADDLES 310 MAG THROUGH 20Z. NO GUSTS THIS AFTN.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: GRADUAL BACKING OF WIND DIRECTION TO W THIS
AFTN.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: GRADUAL BACKING OF WIND DIRECTION TO W THIS
AFTN.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: GRADUAL BACKING OF WIND DIRECTION TO WSW THIS
AFTN.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SAT THROUGH WED...
.SAT...VFR.
.SUNDAY...VFR...LOCALIZED MVFR INLAND. CHC -SHRA.
.MON-WED...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
INCREASING W FLOW COULD BRING OCEAN SEAS CLOSE TO SCA CRITERIA
LATE TONIGHT. SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT COULD
ALSO BRING OCEAN SEAS E OF MORICHES INLET CLOSE TO SCA CRITERIA
LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ATTM.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM/SHORT TERM/MARINE...GOODMAN
AVIATION...TONGUE





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