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000
FXUS61 KOKX 260019
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
819 PM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS WELL TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
AN INCREASINGLY HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
STACKED LOW PRES OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY NNE
TONIGHT. CANCELLING THE WIND ADVSY AS WINDS ARE ALREADY ON THE
DOWNWARD TREND DESPITE WINDS AROUND 50 KT AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED
LAYER NEAR H8 PER 00Z KOKX SOUNDING. IT WILL REMAIN WINDY
OVERNIGHT...WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 40 MPH...HIGHEST AT THE
COAST. AS TYPICALLY OCCURS...EXPECT THE MIXING DEPTH TO LOWER
LATER TONIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AND AIRMASS DRIES
SOMEWHAT. GUSTS SHOULD NOT BE AS HIGH AS A RESULT.

SHOWERS ARE ALREADY DRYING OUT AND 18Z MODEL DATA IS SHOWING A
QUICKER END TO ACTIVITY...SO ALSO TAPERED POPS OVERNIGHT A BIT
QUICKER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO THE REST OF
THE GRIDS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS FROM OBS/SAT/RAD/MOD DATA.

IN A WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE ALONG WITH THE PRESENCE OF CLOUDS
PREVENTING SFC HEAT TO RADIATE TONIGHT...MIN TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY
UNIFORM OVERNIGHT...40S ACROSS THE CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
CLOSED UPPER LOW SLOWLY LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL MIX WITH SUN...WITH HIGHER SKY PERCENTAGES EAST
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...THEN SKIES CLEAR OUT AS THE LOW AND CYCLONIC
FLOW LOSES IT/S GRIP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.

TEMPS REBOUND SUNDAY AS UPPER COLD POOL MOVES EAST AND MORE
SUNSHINE IS REALIZED...BUT STILL FALL SHORT OF SEASONAL NORMS.

ANOTHER WINDY DAY IS ON TAP...ALTHOUGH DO NOT FORESEE WIND ADV GUSTS
SUNDAY AS WINDS ALOFT LOOKS A LITTLE WEAKER ACROSS OUR AREA.

THERE COULD BE A BRIEF MORNING SHOWER OR SPRINKLE OVER SE CT EARLY
IN THE MORNING...OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S ACROSS NYC METRO...40S
ELSEWHERE EXCEPT SOME UPPER 30S ACROSS THE INTERIOR. MOS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THIS TIME FRAME...AND WILL FOLLOW A MOS BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE UPPER PATTERN
DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
LIFT THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON MONDAY AS A BROAD H5 RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK WITH AN INCREASINGLY HOT AND
HUMID AIRMASS DEVELOPING.

THE GFS AND EC DETERMINISTIC MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH THE
DETAILS IN THE UPPER PATTERN STARTING WED WHICH IS LEADING TO
DIFFERENCES AT THE SFC. AS A RESULT...THE WARM FRONT STALLS MUCH
FARTHER S IN THE EC THAN THE GFS WITH A SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH
NEW ENGLAND IN THE LATE AFTN/EVE. GFS DOES NOT HAVE ANY
INDICATION OF THIS.

AT THE SURFACE...DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL PREVAIL MON AND TUE
AS HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA WITH A BERMUDA HIGH BECOMING
ESTABLISHED DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. A WARM FRONT WILL
APPROACH TUE NIGHT AND LIFT THROUGH THE AREA ON WED. HAVE
MAINTAINED LOW CHC POPS AHEAD OF AND WITH ITS PASSAGE AS GUIDANCE
IS NOT INDICATING ALL THAT MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL.

THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR WED THROUGH SAT WITH A
CHANCE OF AIRMASS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTN/EVE.
INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT...BUT NO LARGE SCALE TRIGGER WILL BE
PRESENT FOR INITIATION. STORMS COULD FIRE ON THERMAL TROUGH OR
EVEN SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES...HOWEVER PREDICTABILITY IN THIS IS TOO
LOW THIS FAR OUT...AND HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY. STRATUS AND/OR
FOG WILL ALSO BE A POSSIBILITY EACH NIGHT DURING THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK. HAVE NOT INCLUDED THIS IN THE FORECAST ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A GUSTY NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS AS LOW PRESSURE
LIFTS SLOWLY NORTH ALONG THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.

WINDS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND 320 MAGNETIC...VARYING PLUS OR MINUS 10
DEGREES. GUSTS UP TO 35 KT THIS EVENING WILL DROP OFF TO AROUND
25 KT...THEN PICK BACK UP TO AROUND 30 KT SUN MORNING. WINDS
GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE SUN AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS IN RESPONSE TO
THE LOW PULLING FARTHER WAY.

VFR CIGS AROUND 5-8 KFT MAY SCATTER OUT AT TIMES. -RA ENDS BY
EARLY MORNING...BUT MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE NYC TERMINALS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUN NIGHT-MON...VFR.
.TUE-WED...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF A WARM FRONT
TUES NIGHT AND WED.
.THU...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

GALES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT...WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS
LINGERING INTO SUNDAY MORNING OVER THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS.

WINDS BACK TO THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL DIMINISH AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.

ROUGH SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AN INVERSION DEVELOPING OVER THE
WATERS. HOWEVER...AN INCREASING SW FLOW DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK MAY CAUSE SEAS ON THE OCEAN TO REACH MARGINAL SCA LEVELS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LESS THAN 1/10 OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED AS SHOWERS TAPER
OFF TONIGHT. THEREAFTER...RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AH PS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RESULT IN BLOW OUT TIDES AROUND THE
TIMES OF LOW TIDE SATURDAY MORNING. LOCALIZED LOW WATER PROBLEMS
ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345-
     353-355.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ350.

&&

$$