Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 131649

1149 AM CDT TUE OCT 13 2015

Issued at 1148 AM CDT TUE OCT 13 2015

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 18Z TAF issuance.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT TUE OCT 13 2015

Sunny days and clear nights are expected during the short-term
period. Surface high pressure will move east toward the
Mississippi Valley today and tonight. The high will move east of
the region on Thursday. Precip water values are forecast to
average only one-quarter to one-half inch, indicative of the bone
dry air mass. At upper levels, strong northwest flow from the
northern Plains to the Lower Ohio Valley is forecast to be devoid
of any significant impulses until the long-term period (see

Highs today and Wednesday will range from the upper 60s in
southwest IN to the mid 70s in the Ozark foothills. This gradient
will match the orientation of the 850 mb temp gradient. Highs
Thursday will be several degrees warmer under the influence of
southwest flow on the back side of the high. Lows in this dry air
mass have the potential to fall below model guidance. Such was the
case Sunday morning.

Despite abnormally dry weather in recent weeks, fire weather
concerns are still rather small due to the mainly green fuels.
This may change after frost and freezing temps occur. However,
relative humidity will fall below 30 percent in many places the
next couple days. Some places escaped the rain yesterday,
especially in se Missouri and southern IL. Will mention elevated
fire danger in the HWO as a precaution.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT TUE OCT 13 2015

Cold front still slated to push se through the Ohio Valley Thursday
night. Most of the mid level support looks to stay north of the
region and low level moisture will be extremely limited. Models did
not perform very well with the onset of convection with this last
system, but will keep pops minimal for now. In fact, it appears that
most of any precip will be post frontal.

The bigger factor with the cold front will be the colder air that
will settle into our region behind the front.  Canadian high will
build southward, and weekend temperatures will be well below normal.
Our coldest period should be Saturday night/Sunday morning, when the
surface high will be nearly overhead and winds should be very light
to calm. Lows will drop into the middle to upper 30s. Will go ahead
at this time and  mention the possibility of some patchy frost over
much of the region for Sunday morning, under clear and calm

Models show the high moving off to our east Sunday into Sunday
night, and the pressure gradient tightening up.  This will mark the
beginning of a decent warming trend early next week.  After highs in
the 60s over the weekend, Monday/Tuesday highs will climb back to
near normal readings around 70 degrees.


Issued at 1148 AM CDT TUE OCT 13 2015

Surface high pressure will build across the region through the
period. West northwest winds may gust into the teens this afternoon,
but winds will then become light around sunset and remain light
through the end of the period. There should be just enough wind to
prevent fog given the dry air mass. The lone exception would be
KCGI. Due to local effects will keep the prevailing MVFR fog late
tonight, but added in BCFG.




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