Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 010356
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1156 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL COME WITH A FRIDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISOLD-SCT SHWRS WL CONT EST E-S OF PIT OVRNGT AS AN UPR LOW CONTS
TO SPIN OVR PA. LAPES RATES HAVE DCRSD ENOUGH FOR TSTMS TO BE
DROPPED FM THE FCST OVRNGT. SHOULD CONT TO SEE FG/ST FORMATION
INTO WED MRNG AS WELL.

WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THAT UPR LOW...HAVE MAINTAINED SLGT POPS
AND AT LEAST BKN CLD COVER THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH
DIMINISHMENT THEREAFTER.

DESPITE FRONT/UPR LOW ENCROACHMENT...EXPECT NR TERM TEMPS TO RMN
NR THE SEASONAL AVGS AS PER A BLEND OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPR TROF ADVN ACRS THE WRN CONUS WL RESULT IN SHRTWV RIDGING OVR
THE GREAT LAKES/UPR OH REGIONS INTO FRIDAY. DRY WEA WL THUS RESUME
WITH WARM ADVCTN SPPRTG TEMPS FM 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVGS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED TROF IS FORECAST FOR A FRIDAY APCH WITH THE
LATEST GFS DEPICTING A LATE AFTN/EVE CDFNT PASSAGE. POPS AND TEMPS
WERE ADJUSTED FOR THAT TREND WHICH WOULD RESULT IN MUCH BTR
DESTABILIZATION.  THUNDER MENTION WAS THUS MAINTAINED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY SLICE THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY EVENING...WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS DIMINISHING WITH THE PASSAGE.
STRONG WIND ARE LIKELY ALONG THE FRONT OWING TO A PROGGED 30-35
KTS OFF THE SURFACE. THIS COMBINED WITH A DRASTIC AIR MASS
DENSITY DISCONTINUITY SHOULD YIELD A FAIRLY WINDY PERIOD INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT.

MUCH COLDER...BUT STILL UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE
THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LOW PRES SETTLES OVR THE REGION. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRONG LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES FUELED BY CONTINUED
COLD ADVECTION SHOULD SPPRT A DIURNAL INCREASE IN SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY.

ERN CONUS TROFG IS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO NEXT WEEK...THUS
MAINTAINING GENLY COOL CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH ERLY TNGT...CAUSING
VERY BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IF AT ALL. COMPLEX AVIATION FORECAST
TONIGHT...AS AT LEAST A LITTLE RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA EARLIER
TUES MAY ENHANCE PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY WEDS MORNING DESPITE
POTENTIAL FOR LLVL STRATUS. STRATUS POTENTIAL WOULD BE HIGHER FOR
NRN PORTS AS LLVL MOISTURE IS MORE ABUNDANT THERE.
REGARDLESS...IFR RESTRICTIONS SHOULD BE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LIFR CONDITIONS...SHOULD FOG
DEVELOP. A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED FOR WEDS AS MIXING
WILL LIFT CLOUD BASES TO OVER 3KFT.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WL COME WITH A FRIDAY/FRIDAY
NIGHT CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





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