Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 020822
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
422 AM EDT SAT AUG 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE TO NEAR AVERAGE WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS TO
RETURN BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RATHER STAGNANT PATTERN WITH 500H TROUGH SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH
OHIO TODAY. WAVES OF ENERGY WILL SWING AROUND THE TROUGH...AND
WITH DAYTIME HEATING...A SLOW MOVING SHOWER OR STORM COULD POP UP
AT ANY TIME. MOST OF THE LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND INSTABILITY WILL
BE CLOSE THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH...LEADING ME TO BELIEVE THAT
THE BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WOULD BE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
MY FORECAST AREA. ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE SLOW MOVING
AS ATMOSPHERIC FLOW IS VERY WEAK.

HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL CREEP UP AS HIGHER SURFACE DEW POINTS ADVECT
NORTHWARD AHEAD OF TROUGH. TEMPS WILL BE JUST A BIT BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW TREK EASTWARD TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
STORM CHANCES WILL DECREASE TONIGHT...BUT WITH TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH...WILL NEED TO KEEP IN CHC POPS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
MOST OF THE NIGHT. RISK FOR STORMS WILL REEMERGE SUNDAY WITH THE
FOCUS SHIFTING EASTWARD WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE TROUGH. MODELS
ARE SHOWING A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE ON SUNDAY...SO WILL KEEP POPS
IN THE LOW CHANCE CATEGORY.

END TO PRECIP SUNDAY NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS TO THE
NORTHEAST AND FLOW BECOMES ZONAL.

IMPROVEMENT MONDAY WITH A DRY DAY AND MORE COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN SETTLED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
BULK OF THE LONG TERM...SHIFTING EASTWARD BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.
MODELS HAVE A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BUT AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS RATHER
MOISTURE STARVED. AFTER THIS...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH
DIFFERING SOLUTIONS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
INCREASED VISIBILITIES IN THE LATEST SET OF TAFS FOR ALL LOCATIONS
EXCEPT FOR FKL AND DUJ AS CLOUD COVERAGE WILL LIMIT HOW FALL
TEMPERATURES FALL AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS REMAIN REMAIN RELATIVELY
WIDE. MAINTAINED VCSH MENTION FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS WELL. WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY
LIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS.


OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT  THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD BRING RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE BALANCE
OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





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