Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 311835
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
235 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHING ACROSS MICHIGAN TO ILLINOIS WILL
CROSS THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
MORNING SOUNDING FROM PITTSBURGH SHOWS A GOOD AMOUNT OF DRY
AIR...AND THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON THE FRONT HAS ONLY PRODUCED
A COUPLE OF SHOWERS UPSTREAM. CONSIDERING THE OVERALL LACK OF
MOISTURE...PLUS ARRIVAL TIME AFTER SUNSET...HAVE ONLY GONE WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NORTH OF PITTSBURGH TONIGHT. THE
NAM SEEMS TO BE A WET OUTLIER COMPARED TO GFS/ECMWF/SREF. BETTER
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WOULD COME TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AGAIN TO
THE NORTH OF PITTSBURGH..

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT DRY WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
AREA SUNDAY AND CROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
MODEL CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...AND HAVE
NOT BEEN CONSISTENT FROM DAY TO DAY. CONSIDERING YESTERDAYS 12Z
MODELS SPED UP FRONTAL TIMING WHILE LAST NIGHTS 00Z MODELS DELAYED
THE FRONTAL TIMING...WILL NOT MAKE MUCH CHANGES TO PRECIP TIMING
EVEN THOUGH TODAYS 12Z MODELS SHOW SOME CONSISTENCY WITH 00Z MODELS.
AT THIS POINT...SREF CERTAINLY SEEMS TO BE THE FAST OUTLIER COMPARED
TO DETERMINISTIC MODELS. DEPENDING ON WHEN THE FRONT PASSES ON
MONDAY...IT APPEARS THAT MODEST VALUES OF INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR
COULD ALLOW FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURE TRENDS SHOULD CHANGE LITTLE WITH SEASONAL VALUES FOR
EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BROAD EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. MUCH OF THE
TIME SHOULD BE DRY...THOUGH A FEW SHORTWAVES ADVANCING THROUGH THE
TROUGH SHOULD BRING PERIODIC SHOWER CHANCES. FOLLOWED CLOSE TO WPC
ENSEMBLE BASED GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT INDIVIDUAL MODEL
DIFFERENCES...THOUGH DID ADJUST GUIDANCE POPS DOWNWARD WITH
SHORTWAVE TIMING AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN QUESTION.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SCT DIURNAL CU DURING THE DAY. A
WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...BUT
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY NORTH OF DUJ/FKL.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
RESTRICTION POTENTIAL RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH CROSSING
DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.