Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 302012
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
412 PM EDT Fri Sep 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper level low pressure will continue to produce bands of showers
across the region into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Quick update at 4:15pm for timing and amount of precipitation with
the band stretching from Cleveland to Pittsburgh and southeast
towards Morgantown.

Closed low will continue to spin across the lower Ohio Valley
through the period with a slow wobble toward the north. This will
keep bands of showers working north and west across the region,
with more significant showers or isolated thunderstorms into this
evening as a shortwave moves up the front of the upper level low.
Drier air will wrap into the upper Ohio Valley Saturday, but still
expect shower bands to redevelop especially north and west of
Pittsburgh closer to colder air aloft.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Very slow movement to closed low as it shifts toward New England
by Sunday night, followed by rising heights Monday as a ridge
begins to build across the region. Scattered showers will remain
across much of the region through Sunday, then mainly toward I-80
Monday as low exits. Temperatures will average above normal
through the period, as overnight lows will be well above the
seasonal average.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A ridge of high pressure will be over the region through Thursday
with dry conditions and mild temperatures. A weak frontal boundary
will approach Friday, and chance POPs were introduced.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A medium confidence forecast with the biggest question where/if
stratus will develop during the predawn hours tonight. Showers
will continue to stream from the south through the region with a jog
toward the east around the upper level low pressure. With the
showers, flight categories should stay at or above MVFR however
can not rule out in a heavier shower that a brief drop to IFR vis
happens. Several of the near term models indicate a batch of
showers with embedded thunder moving through northern WV, western
PA, and eastern OH tonight after 2z. Confidence at this juncture
is not high enough for prevailing showers instead opted for VCSH
across all terminals.

Given the recent rainfall and build up of low level moisture
almost all of the statistical guidance is taking airports to
600-800ft cigs after 7Z. Elected to roll with IFR cigs for most
terminals save for the non favored climo ones of PIT and LBE.

Increased drying of the atmosphere will allow clouds to break up
Saturday morning, but given lower sun angle, burn off time is
typically late morning /15-17Z/. Do not foresee nearly as much
shower activity Saturday since we will reside underneath the dry
slot.

.OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Brief IFR/MVFR restrictions will linger into Monday when the
upper level low finally departs.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$


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