Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 242322 AAB
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
622 PM EST Tue Jan 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures will remain above seasonal averages through
Wednesday. A Thursday cold front will bring colder temperatures
and snow showers through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
620pm update...have increased the coverage of drizzle as the final
shortwave trough moves through this evening. The upper level
energy is moving across a saturated air-mass and providing just
enough lift for drizzle to fall. This disturbance will be east of
the area by late this evening. With the latest guidance and
satellite trends, have also made some adjustments to the overnight
cloud cover. With warm air advection expected later tonight,
expect the low clouds to begin to erode and be shoved eastward as
the cool pool in the mid-levels is ejected to the east.

Previous discussion...
No real cold advection behind the system, and with stratus
remaining across the region tonight min temperatures will fall
little from evening readings.

Warm advection ahead of an approaching cold front will push
temperatures into the 40s north and 50s south Wednesday. Scattered
rain showers will develop mainly in the afternoon, as a lead
shortwave races east ahead of the approaching cold front.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Cold front will cross the region Thursday morning with rain
showers Wednesday night mixing with and changing to snow showers
Thursday. Cold advection will continue in northwest flow through
Friday, with a reinforcing shortwave and cold front approaching on
Friday. Temperatures will fall to near the seasonal averages or a
bit below.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Northwest flow aloft will continue to feed fast moving shortwaves
across the region through the weekend, with seasonably cold
temperatures and snow showers. A model blend was used with a
broad brush for POPs due to timing issues. By Monday mid level
flow will flatten somewhat ahead of a shortwave approaching the
Great Lakes, allowing for a mainly dry day Monday. Low chance POPs
were included for Tuesday ahead of an approaching front.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR to begin the forecast, with some drizzle and fog, particularly
at ports in the north and east. IFR will slowly improve to MVFR
from west to east as the night progresses. Expect any lingering
drizzle to dissipate by late this evening. Ridging should provide
a brief period of VFR conditions on Wednesday, with the exception
of ports N of I 80. Cigs will fall back to MVFR from west to east
during the afternoon, ahead of an approaching cold front.

.OUTLOOK...
Periodic restrictions are expected Wed night through Sun with a
crossing cold front and subsequent upper troughing.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$



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