Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 251023
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
623 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY WILL RETURN TO THE REGION...BUT SO WILL SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND DRAWS TO A CLOSE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
620 AM...MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY AND HOURLY TEMPS...REST UNCHANGED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD OFF
THE COAST ALLOWING FOR WARM SOUTHWEST WIND TO FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION. OCCASIONAL CIRRUS MAY CROSS THE AREA OTHERWISE A MOSTLY
CLEAR SKY IS IN STORE UNTIL MIDDAY AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY HELP INDUCE
PRECIPITATION MOSTLY WEST OF THE RIDGES THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WITH RIDGE AXIS CONTINUING TO PUSH OFF OF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD...MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW SETS UP FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.
TUESDAY WILL FEATURE HIGH-END SCATTERED COVERAGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS PWATS SPIKE TO NEAR 1.75 INCHES AND MIDLEVEL RIPPLES
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA. INSTABILITY AND WIND FIELD ARE
NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH WARM AIR ALOFT...SO SEVERE RISK IS
SMALL. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS
GIVEN THE PWAT AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING 10K
FEET...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT. RECENT DRY PATTERN KEEPS HIGH
WATER CONCERNS MINIMAL...AT LEAST AT FIRST.

DYING COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON WEDNESDAY...AND WHILE IT WILL NOT
BRING ANY SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS CHANGE...IT WILL PROVIDE A BIT MORE
FOCUS FOR SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY...AS WILL A HEALTHIER H500 SHORTWAVE
FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WILL KEEP THE IDEA OF LIKELY POPS
HERE. A STRONG STORM OR TWO REMAIN POSSIBLE...BUT AGAIN...SEVERE
RISK IS MARGINAL AS SUGGESTED BY SPC. COVERAGE WILL DIURNALLY
DECREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT PRESENCE OF BOUNDARY PLUS CONTINUED
SW FLOW ALOFT KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING.

FRONT MORE OR LESS DISSIPATES BY THURSDAY MORNING. EASTERN U.S.
RIDGE BRIEFLY REESTABLISHES ITSELF LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...LEADING TO A LULL IN PRECIPITATION. ALLOW POPS TO DROP TO
NONMENTIONABLE BY 12Z FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT DID
KNOCK DOWN DAYTIME HIGHS TUE/WED A BIT GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIPITATION.  CL

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BREAK WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...AS SW FLOW AROUND DEPARTING SURFACE
HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR DIURNAL ACTIVITY TO BLOOM AGAIN ON FRIDAY. A
MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE REGION DURING THE
WEEKEND...AND THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE FRONT COULD GET HUNG UP
IN OUR AREA. WILL KEEP POPS AT HIGH-END CHANCE FOR NOW GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY OF FRONTAL PROGRESS...WITH A SLIGHT DROP MONDAY AS BOUNDARY
MAY PUSH FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO DECREASE COVERAGE.  CL

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE.
WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY LATE
MONDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND DISTURBANCES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ARE LIKELY
TO SPAWN PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$


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