Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 070522
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
122 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS A
COLD FRONT CROSSES TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN STALLS ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY EXIT THE REGION
TONIGHT...THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL S-E OF
PIT UNTIL THEN. OTHERWISE PATCHY CLOUDS AND SOME FOG IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT.

A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO APPROACH THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WARM MID LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT. SHEAR
IS NOT IMPRESSIVE EITHER...BUT WITH SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR ANY
STRONGER STORMS COULD HAVE GUSTY WINDS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
AVERAGE A LITTLE ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TOMORROW NIGHT...BRINGING
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE RECENTLY...THE FRONT
APPEARS LIKELY TO STALL OUT ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST MODELS SHOW
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT HAVE
A BIT MORE DISAGREEMENT ON THURSDAY. 12Z NAM HAS THE BULK OF THE
RAINFALL FROM PITTSBURGH NORTH INTO NEW YORK...WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF
SHOWS RAINFALL PRIMARILY SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH INTO KENTUCKY. UNTIL
MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT...WILL SIMPLY KEEP CHANCE POPS
FOR THURSDAY. WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WAVER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS SHORTWAVES MOVE EAST IN RELATIVELY ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW. WITH
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES HARD TO TIME HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO WPC PROGS WHICH SEEMED A GOOD
COMPROMISE.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCT MID DECK OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS. AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL BRING AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST WIND OVER 10 KTS MID
MORNING. TIMING OF FRONT SEEMS TO BE A BIT SLOWER WITH BULK OF
SHOWERS OR STORMS AFFECTING PORTS FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 23Z.
BEFORE THEN GENERAL VFR AFTER ANY PATCHY MORNING FOG LIFTS.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FRONT WILL WAVER ACROSS REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PERIODIC
RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$


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