Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 251814
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
114 PM EST THU DEC 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL END THE WEEK DRIER. WARM TEMPERATURES
RETURN THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCATTERED RADAR ECHOES REMAIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SNOW AT TIMES. HIGHER ELEVATIONS
SEE A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW PERSISTING THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING...BUT LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. ALL
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END BY 00Z.

MODEST WAA AND MIXING HAS GIVEN A RAGGED APPEARANCE TO AN
OTHERWISE SOLID CLOUD DECK. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS LEAD TO FLEETING
GLIMPSES OF BLUE SKY AND SUNSHINE...BUT THE DOMINATE CLOUD DECK
SHOULD LAST THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. DESPITE THE WAA...NAM/RAP
SOUNDINGS INDICATED 925MB MOISTURE REMAINING TRAPPED UNDER AN
INVERSION AND HOLDING TIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRI.
WITH THE STRONG 850MB WAA CURRENTLY PROGGED OVER OH/IN...THEY HAVE
BEEN UNABLE TO CLEAR MUCH OF THEIR LLVL CLOUDS...WE MAY BE HEADED
DOWN A SIMILAR PATH. THE RECENT UPDATE HAS INCLUDED HOLDING CLOUDS
IN LONGER...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NRN AND ERN PERIPHERIES.

HIGH PRESSURE ALREADY KNOCKING ON OUR DOORSTEP WILL BE QUICK TO
DISSIPATE THE REMAINING CLOUD COVER FRI MORNING. WITH WAA IN FULL SWING
THROUGH FRI MORNING AND CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...FRI HIGH TEMPS SHOULD WARM BACK TO WELL ABOVE AVG.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ERN CONUS HIGH PRES IS EXPD TO BRING DRY WEA INTO SAT. THE NXT
SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED CDFNT IS PROGGED FOR A SAT NGT/SUN PASSAGE.
TRENDED POPS UPWD...BUT MAINTAINED HIGH CHC AS TIMING AND AMT OF
AVAIL MSTR RMNS IN QN. CRITICAL THICKNESSES INDICATE PCPN SHOULD
BE MAINLY RAIN...THOUGH A MIX OR CHG OVR TO SNW COULD OCCUR AS THE
SYSTEM EXITS. ABV SEASONAL AVG TEMPS ARE EXPD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAJORITY OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE DRY WITH SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES AS ZONAL FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. A
WAVE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN CANADA OVER THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK COULD POTENTIALLY RESULT IN A STEEPER DROP IN
TEMPERATURES AND MORE PRECIPITATION THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST...HOWEVER...LATEST GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN TOO FAR NORTH TO HAVE A
MAJOR IMPACT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST IN A RAGGED BUT EXPANSIVE CLOUD DECK.
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION HAS EATEN
AWAY AT PORTIONS OF THE CLOUD COVER...EVEN RESULTING IN BRIEF
CLEAR PATCHES...BUT OVERALL THE BORDERLINE MVFR CIGS HOLD STEADY.

GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A FAIR AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE HOLDING UNDER A LLVL INVERSION. WHILE ENOUGH MOISTURE
MAY NOT REMAIN TO FEED A SOLID STRATUS DECK...THE TREND UPSTREAM
IN OH/IN IS TO HOLD SOME LLVL CLOUDS THROUGH EARLY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY FOR NRN AND ERN TERMINALS. HAVE INCLUDED MVFR
CIGS FOR FKL/DUJ/LBE AND SCATTERED MVFR CIGS FOR MUCH OF THE REST.
BEYOND FRI MORNING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNDER SSW FLOW
AROUND 8-10KTS.

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS LOOKS MOST LIKELY SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AS THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM QUICKLY
PASSES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





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