Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000
FXUS61 KPHI 300721
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
321 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE WORK WEEK
LEADING TO A MOSTLY HOT AND DRY PATTERN. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY SLIDE
INTO OUR REGION ON THURSDAY. A LOW OFF SHORE AND A HIGH TO OUR
NORTHEAST MAY PROVIDE SOME COOLER CONDITIONS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HI PRES WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY AND SLOWLY
MOVE EWD.  AS IT DOES, BOTH CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE.
A S/WV WILL APPROACH FROM THE W DURG THE AFTN HOURS AND THIS FEATURE
COULD TRIGGER A SHWR OR TSTM, MAINLY FOR NRN AND WRN AREAS, SO WILL
CONTINUE VERY LOW POPS IN THESE LOCATIONS.  HOWEVER, THE OVERALL AMS
IS VERY DRY, SO IT WOULDN`T BE SURPRISING IF NOTHING HAPPENED EITHER.
TEMPS WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN SATURDAY AND DE PTS WILL CREEP UP AS
WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
ANY ISOLD SHWRS OR TSTMS WILL COME TO AN END AND THEN
EXPECT JUST A PCLDY SKY WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING DEW PTS, AS THE
HIGH REMAINS THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE AS WE CLOSE OUT AUGUST AND
METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SOME SHIFTS IN TRACKS AND TIMING WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS, BUT
THE MAIN STORY REMAINS THE HIGH SLIDING OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH
OF THE WORK WEEK.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAY SEE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION, BUT OTHERWISE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THROUGH THIS PERIOD ARE VERY SLIM. SHOULD SEE A MODEST
WARMING TREND FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES
OVERHEAD, THUS LEADING TO INCREASING 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES FOR
THE REGION. EVEN WITH THIS HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE THOUGH, HIGHS
SHOULD STAY WELL BELOW RECORDS, AND HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD STAY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S.

THURSDAY...A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PERIOD, SPECIFICALLY
WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT. SOME MODELS ARE NOW
STALLING THIS FRONT WELL NORTH OF THE REGION, OR SHOWING THE
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ALMOST DISAPPEAR COMPLETELY BY THE TIME IT
REACHES OUR REGION. FOR NOW THOUGH, HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR BOTH TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES,
AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT AND
FOCUS FOR CONVECTION EVEN WITHOUT THE FRONT, AND STILL THINK THERE
IS A CHANCE THE FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA GIVEN THAT THE MODELS
TEND TO UNDERESTIMATE HOW FAR SOUTH FRONTS WILL PROPAGATE IN THE
TRANSITION SEASONS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...STAYED RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AS THERE ARE SOME LARGE DIFFERENCES AMONG THE LONG RANGE
MODELS IN THIS PERIOD. THE GFS SHOWS STEADY ON SHORE FLOW AS A
SURFACE HIGH DEVELOPS TO OUR NORTHWEST. MEANWHILE, THE ECMWF SHOWS
A VERTICALLY STACKED, AND NEARLY STATIONARY, LOW TO OUR SOUTHEAST.
EITHER SOLUTION THOUGH DOES LOOK TO BRING A COOLING TREND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS WILL BE THE RULE THRU THE TAF PD, WITH HI PRES
IN CONTROL.  A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THRU DURG THE LATE AFTN
HOURS AND COULD TOUCH OFF A STRAY SHRA OR TSRA MAINLY FOR KRDG OR
KABE.  HOWEVER, OVERALL CHCS ARE VERY LOW AND, THEREFORE, WILL NOT
BE MENTIONED IN THE TAFS.  OTHERWISE, EXPECT A SW WIND TO DEVELOP Y
LATE MRNG GENLY 10 KTS OR LESS.  WIND WILL THEN DECREASE AFTER
SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THOUGH
LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS WITH FOG POSSIBLE EACH MORNING.

THURSDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THE NR AND SHORT TERM
PDS.  SEAS WILL GENLY BE IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE.  WIND WILL GENLY BE
SW IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY WELL BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WATER TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK WILL BE MAINTAINED IN NJ ONCE AGAIN
TODAY, AS WE WILL HAVE 24-4 FT SEAS, SW WIND THAT COULD GUST AS HIGH
AS 20 KT AND SE SWELL.  WE WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE NEARLY
FULL MOON AS WELL AND HAVE LONG PERIODS...AROUND 10 SECONDS.  IN
DELAWARE, THE RISK REMAINS LOW.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...


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