Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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FXUS61 KPHI 291358
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
958 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
TODAY,REMAINING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD DOWN FROM THE NORTH FOR SATURDAY.
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION FROM THE
MIDWESTERN STATES, BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE AREA LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE, ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPS OFF OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST AND MOVES TO
THE NORTHEAST, POSSIBLY BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION
THROUGH THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

AS OF MID MORNING...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER MAINE
WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED SWWD THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.
THIS RESULTS IN ENE ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE
FIRST FEW THOUSAND FEET AGL. WINDS ABOVE 5000 FT OR SO ARE FROM
THE W-WNW. SO EXTENSIVE LOW-LEVEL CLOUDINESS PERSISTS ACROSS THE
AREA AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN
THE FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY IN THE MID
40S TO AROUND 50 WILL RISE ONLY A FEW DEGREES FOR THE REST OF
TODAY DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER...WITH EXPECTED HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S AND WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL.

ON THE RADAR LOOP SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOTED OVER THE LOWER
SUSQUEHANNA VLY WHICH IS WORKING ITS WAY EAST TOWARD THE LOWER
DELAWARE VLY. PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE QUITE LIGHT...ONLY A COUPLE
HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH PER HOUR AT MOST. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE SOMEWHAT OVER OTHER AREAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS A
SHRTWV TROF ALOFT APPROACHES FROM THE GRTLKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
THE SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NRN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING AND THEN RAPIDLY MOVE OFFSHORE. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE
IN COVERAGE...BUT LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE/FOG WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA. SLOW IMPROVEMENT TOWARDS DAWN IS POSSIBLE. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SATURDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY DRY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND THEN MOVES QUICKLY OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
OUR AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE ON SATURDAY,
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE A BIT AND BE WARMER THAN ON FRIDAY.

SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE START OF THE NEXT ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION AS LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE MIDWESTERN STATES AND
STARTS MOVES CLOSER TO OUR AREA. AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY, WE WILL START TO HAVE SOME SHOWERS MAKE THEIR WAY INTO OUR
AREA. WE COULD SEE SHOWERS DEVELOP AS EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
THEN CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS THE LOW MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND THEN OFF TO THE EAST ON MONDAY. THE AREA WILL START
TO DRY OUT MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PUSHES FURTHER TO THE EAST.
PWATS INCREASE MAINLY ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT TO AROUND 1-1.5
INCHES, WHICH MEANS THERE COULD BE SOME PRETTY GOOD RAINMAKERS
AROUND THE REGION. THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE SOME INSTABILITY
PRESENT FOR SUNDAY AND WE HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE FORECAST, MAINLY OVER THE DELMARVA AND
SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN BRIEFLY FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST
US COAST AND THEN TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY
AS TO WHETHER THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK ALONG A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND THE PROXIMITY OF THAT BOUNDARY TO OUR COAST. FOR NOW
WE HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS, MAINLY ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN POPS HEADING INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG,KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR IS FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH THIS MORNING...
HENCE CEILINGS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR AT SEVERAL TAF SITES...
GENERALLY FROM PHL NORTHWARD. OTHERWISE MVFR CIGS CONTINUE. VSBYS
ARE NOT AN ISSUE AT THIS TIME BUT COULD BE TEMPORARILY LOWER THIS
AFTERNOON IN SHOWERS.

LESS THAN IDEAL CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE TERMINALS TODAY AS
A STALLED FRONT TO THE SOUTH...ONSHORE FLOW AND AN APPROACHING
SHORT WAVE COMBINE TO PRODUCE PLENTY OF LOWER CLOUDS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NRN AREA. CONDITIONS WILL BE
MOSTLY IFR EARLY...THEN IMPROVE TO MVFR LATER THIS MORNING AND
THEN DETERIORATING BACK TO IFR TONIGHT. OVERALL CONFID IS LOW WITH
REGARDS TO THE TIMING AND CATEGORIES FOR THE TAFS.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH INCREASING
CLOUDINESS. EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY WILL
DROP TO MVFR OR LOWER IN RAIN AND SHOWERS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE LATER MONDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLY, MAINLY SOUTH
AND EAST OF KPHL ON SUNDAY. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10
KNOTS OR LESS.

TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE TO THE NORTH WHILE A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL EXIT OFF THE EAST COAST WELL SOUTH OF THE WATERS TODAY.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT AND LOW-END SCA WINDS
AND SEAS AROUND 5 FT ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING. WE
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SCA FLAG...HOWEVER SCA CONDITIONS WILL
PROBABLY NOT BE OCCURRING ALL OF THE TIME TODAY. THERE WILL BE SOME
FOG AND DRIZZLE EARLY TODAY AND THEN SCT SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. THE
SHOWERS WILL END OVER THE WATERS LATER TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...BOTH WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...SEAS WILL BUILD LATE SUNDAY AND REACH
5 FEET BY MONDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5 FEET THROUGH MUCH
OF MONDAY BEFORE STARTING TO SUBSIDE BEHIND A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SEAS WILL DIMINISH AND SHOULD FALL
BELOW 5 FEET BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...AMC
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...AMC/MEOLA/O`HARA
MARINE...MEOLA/O`HARA



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