Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 231713
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1113 AM MDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 430 AM MDT SAT AUG 23 2014

PREDOMINANTLY DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AS
SHORTWAVE TROF FROM YESTERDAY CONTINUES TO LIFT OUT OF NORTHEAST
CO...AND NEXT WAVE OF ENERGY IS MOVING INTO WRN CO AROUND CLOSED
UPPER LOW OVER ID. FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED -TSRA
ACROSS UT/WRN CO WILL BE MOVING INTO THE CONTDVD REGION TOWARDS
MORNING AND ALREADY SEEING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AT MTN SENSORS LIKE
KMYP.  ALSO SEEING SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AT TIMES ACROSS
THE SAN LUIS VALLEY DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING AND SATURATED LOW
LEVELS DUE TO YESTERDAY`S RAINFALL.  MONUMENT HILL ALSO SEEING SOME
AREAS OF FOG AT TIMES...AND EXPECT THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
MORNING.

FOR TODAY...CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND NRN MTS WILL SEE THE BEST SHOT
FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
AS UPPER LOW ADVANCES EASTWARD INTO WY/MT AND TAIL END OF SHORTWAVE
LIFTS THROUGH NORTHWEST CO.  THE REST OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST
COLORADO WILL REMAIN UNDER DOWNSLOPE SOUTHWEST FLOW.  BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL KICK IN FOR MOST AREAS BY THIS AFTERNOON AND
BRING A WARM UP OVER YESTERDAY`S TEMPERATURES FOR MOST
AREAS...PARTICULARLY THE MTN VALLEYS AND I-25 CORRIDOR.  DEW POINTS
WILL FALL OFF INTO THE 30S AND 40S WHICH KEEPS CAPES ON THE LOW SIDE
TODAY.  THUS MAIN THREAT WITH THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE GUSTY
WINDS...SOME BRIEF MODERATE RAINFALL...AND LIGHTNING.  COULD BE SOME
SMALL GRAUPEL/SNOW PELLETS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SAWATCH
AND MOSQUITO MOUNTAINS TODAY AS FREEZING LEVELS DROP TO THE MTN PEAK
LEVELS AT TIMES.

THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN MT/AND THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS TONIGHT.  A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS BRINGING A WIND SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH.  DOES NOT
LOOK ALL THAT GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT AT THIS POINT...BUT A WIND
SHIFT FROM THE NORTH AT 10 KTS WITH SOME BRIEF GUSTS TO 20 KTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN FOR MOST
AREAS TOWARDS DAWN.  MEANWHILE...A FEW LINGERING OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. OVERALL...IT SHOULD BE A MUCH QUIETER DAY TODAY AS
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. -KT

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM MDT SAT AUG 23 2014

NOT MANY ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING WITH
MAIN LONGER TERM METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES CONTINUING TO BE POPS...THE
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES AND TEMPERATURES.

RECENT MODEL TRENDS/SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE COMBINATION OF
ADEQUATE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH PASSING UPPER
DISTURBANCES AND A NORTHERLY SURFACE SURGE MOVING ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT BY TUESDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO BE
NOTED OVER MANY PORTIONS OF THE CWFA FROM SUNDAY WELL INTO NEXT
WEEK.

AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE NOTED FROM LATER MONDAY INTO
LATER WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES.

IT STILL APPEARS THAT DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN
RETURN TO SOUTHERN COLORADO BY FRIDAY AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS
INTO THE REGION.

WARMEST TEMPERATURES DURING THE LONGER TERM ARE EXPECTED FROM
SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY AND THEN AGAIN BY NEXT FRIDAY...WHILE COOLEST
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FROM WEDNESDAY INTO POSSIBLY THURSDAY.
FINALLY...GUSTY GRADIENT WINDS AT TIMES(PRIMARILY OVER THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO PLAINS) ARE STILL EXPECTED FROM LATER
SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM MDT SAT AUG 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THREE TERMINALS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
FEW SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS 20 TO 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AT EACH SITE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THE MOUNTAIN AREAS BUT
SHOULD NOT IMPACT KALS OR KCOS.  MOZLEY

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...MOZLEY



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