Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 241055
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
355 AM MST Fri Nov 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 355 AM MST Fri Nov 24 2017

...Critical fire weather conditions for portions of the I-25
corridor today...

Strengthening upper level flow ahead of the next shortwave progged
to move through WY and northern CO later this afternoon, has caused
surface pressures to fall across the southeast plains overnight.
Surface winds have responded with gusty west winds across the lower
eastern slopes and portions of the I-25 corridor.  Dew points are
already quite low and have seen some spotty red flag conditions
already met early this morning.  As the morning progresses should
see more widespread Red Flag conditions materialize across Fremont,
El Paso, Pueblo and Huerfano counties with gusts around 25 to 30 mph
and RH values below 15 percent.  Therefore will issue a Red Flag
warning for these areas with the morning package.  This will run
from late morning through early afternoon. Conditions look a little
more marginal in regard to wind for western Las Animas county so
will leave this area out for now.  Spotty Red Flag conditions will
be possible at times across portions of Teller county as well as the
Wets and Sangre De Cristos...but conditions do not look widespread
enough to include these zones in the Red Flag warning at this time
due to marginal humidity values.  Burning in all of these areas
should be avoided today.

The associated cold front will arrive by mid afternoon across the
Pikes Peak region with a slow rebound in dew points...which will
probably bring Red Flag conditions to an end a little sooner across
El Paso county. Given that winds will still remain gusty will keep
the Red Flag Warning going through 5 PM. Front will drop through the
remainder of the plains by 03z. Could see an isolated high based
shower across northern portions of the southeast plains late this
afternoon through this evening but given the dry low levels, any
precipitation shouldn`t amount to much. Other area to see some
precipitation will be the central mountains of Chaffee/Lake
counties, mainly north of Cottonwood Pass.  Some spotty light snow
accumulations will be possible above 10000 feet...but in general
amounts should stay below an inch.

Clearing skies overnight along with cooler airmass should lead to
cooler overnight lows across the area. -KT

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 355 AM MST Fri Nov 24 2017

Saturday-Sunday...Upper level ridging builds back across the Rockies
with dry conditions expected through the weekend. Temperatures on
Saturday will be cooler than Friday, though still expected to be
above seasonal levels, with highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s across
the plains and mainly 40s and 50s across the higher terrain. Sunday
temps look to warm to well above seasonal levels in the 60s to lower
70s across the plains and mainly in the 50s and 60s across the
higher elevations.

Monday-Thursday...Increasing west to southwest flow aloft remains
in the offing into early next week, as models dig an upper trough
across the Great Basin and through the Rockies. The latest models
are in better agreement of a deeper and slower evolution of the this
system, though continue to differ on timing and location, with the
latest ECMWF an outlier as it is the slowest and deepest with closed
low across south central Utah at 12Z Tuesday. The GFS and Canadian
models are more progressive and further south with a closed low,
with the GFS ensemble mean the most progressive and weakest with the
system.

At any rate, Monday continues to look like a high fire danger day,
with gusty west to southwest winds and temperatures well above
seasonal levels expected out ahead of the system. The EC solution
continues to bring the best chances of precipitation to all of south
central and southeast Colorado Tuesday and Tuesday night, with the
GFS and Canadian solutions keeping the best chances over the higher
terrain and areas south of the highway 50 corridor late Monday night
and through the day Tuesday. Cooler temperatures, closer to seasonal
levels, remains in the offing for Tuesday and Wednesday, with the
latest models indicating another system digging across the Rockies
bringing precipitation chances to areas over and near the higher
terrain in the Wednesday night and Thursday timeframe. Longer range
models then continue to indicate a more unsettled weather pattern,
with systems moving across the area every other day, through the end
of the work week and into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 355 AM MST Fri Nov 24 2017

Breezier winds expected today as westerly winds spread into the KCOS
and KPUB terminals during the late morning and early afternoon.
Gusts to around 20-25 kts will be possible through the afternoon.
Winds will shift from the northwest at KCOS around 21-22z and at PUB
around 22-23z with the arrival of a cold front.  Could see some
brief VFR cigs through the evening.  North winds around 10-20 kts
will persist until around 06z before diminishing towards morning as
they swing around from a easterly then southerly direction.

Lighter winds can be expected at KALS today...though will shift
around from the northwest around 10-15 kts during the late afternoon
and evening. Only some passing high level clouds can be expected at
times. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 9 AM this morning to 5 PM MST this
afternoon for COZ222-226>229.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...KT



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