646
FXUS65 KPUB 102336
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
536 PM MDT Fri May 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Round 2 of precipitation will impact ALL of the area tomorrow,
  with scattered showers the rest of today and tonight
  (especially south).

- Continued generally cool and unsettled through Sunday,
  with rounds of showers and thunderstorms and mountain snow.

- Warmer early next week with another possible system for mid week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 255 PM MDT Fri May 10 2024

Currently...

Upper mid level low which brought all the precip to the high country
and I-25 corridor areas last night was spinning north of Las Vegas
NV this early afternoon. This system continues bring scatted rain
and snow showers to a large area of the 4 corners states, especially
UT and W CO. Over our immediate region, showers were noted over the
San Juans, with more lighter precip over the rest of the CONTDVD and
N Sangres. From a satellite perspective, some clearing was noted
over the San Luis valley this afternoon, and most of the plains west
of the longitude of KLHX was mostly sunny. The remainder of the
region was cloudy and cool. As for temps, not surprisingly, where it
was sunny temps were over 60F over the plains with 40s in the
SLV, while the rest of the plains were in teh 40s to L50s. Mtns,
especially mtn tops, were quite cold, with readings around 20F
(indicating fairly stout lapse rates over the fcst area).

The rest of today through late tomorrow afternoon...

Upper low will retrograde to our west a bit before starting to limp
to the east starting tomorrow morning, and is fcst to reach the 4
corners region by 00 UTC Sunday. Although a couple of minor
disturbances will rotate around this system, the next significant
ripple will push east-northeastward tomorrow, and this will bring
another round of enhanced showers and isold tsra (with high mtn
snows) to the region during the day tomorrow. Since the primary low
will be moving slowly east, the plains will likely get into the
action by mid day tomorrow, and expect likely to categorical pops to
overspread the entire fcst area by tomorrow afternoon.

Since the brunt of the pops will affect the region during highest
sun angle tomorrow, any significant snow will occur at mainly the
highest elevations, so do not expect any impactful snow to affect
the public with this event. Another 3 to 6 inches of snow with local
amounts of 10" will be possible, mainly at or above 10 kft across
our higher terrain.

Morning mins tomorrow should be in the 40s plains with 30s valleys
and teens and 20s mtns. Max temps will be in the 60s most of the
plains with some L70s far east, 50s SLV and 30s and 40s mtns. Winds
should not be an issue although some breezy southerlies are likely
on the plains by tomorrow afternoon.

We will likely see a healthy does of non severe thunder over the
mtns tomorrow, with isold storms along the I-25 corridor. Lots of
peas/graupel will be possible over the higher terrain. /Hodanish

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 255 PM MDT Fri May 10 2024

Saturday night-Sunday night...Modest southwest flow aloft across the
region Saturday becomes increasingly northwest through the day Sunday,
as upper low continues to lift out across south central and southeast
Colorado into north central Kansas by Sunday night. Scattered to
numerous showers and possible thunderstorms storms spread out across
eastern Colorado Saturday evening, with deformation band precipitation
associated with the passing upper low developing across south central
Colorado and into the Pikes Peak region late Saturday night and early
Sunday morning. Passing upper system sends a cold front across eastern
Colorado through the day Sunday, with wrap around moisture, and low
level moisture pooling along and behind this front, leading to scattered
to numerous showers and thunderstorms across the region once again.
Latest model data does indicate the potential for moderate instability
along this front, with a few stronger storms possible Sunday afternoon
across the southeast Plains. Also, given the colder air progged aloft
with the passing upper low, there could be the potential for some cold
air funnels or even a landspout. Snow levels waver between 9K-10K feet
during through this period, with a few inches of snow expected on the
higher peaks Saturday night and again on Sunday. As for temperatures,
generally below seasonal levels are expected on Sunday, with highs
in the 60s to low 70s across the Plains, and mainly 40s and 50s across
the higher terrain, save for 30s at the peaks.

Monday-Friday...Warmer and drier weather remains in the offing for Monday
as upper level ridging builds across the region early next week. There
looks to be enough moisture in place to support isolated to scattered
afternoon showers and storms, on Monday. Latest models do indicate
increasing westerly flow aloft on Tuesday, with increasing moisture within
the flow supporting scattered showers and storms across the region,
especially along and west of the ContDvd. Beyond Tuesday, models continue
to differ on the timing and location of the next system moving across the
region through the middle of next week, with the latest GFS slower, stronger
and further south with the system, as compared with the ECMWF solutions.
Either way, models indicate increasing chances of precipitation on Wednesday,
along with cooler temperatures as a front pushes south across the region.
Drier west to northwest flow to prevail across the region
Thursday and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 531 PM MDT Fri May 10 2024

KALS...rain showers will continue through Saturday morning with
prods of reduced VIS and CIGS. Rain may change to snow late
tonight and mix with rain. The precipitation looks to lift
northeast of the terminal Saturday morning. More showers may be
possible during the afternoon.

KCOS and KPUB...showers will move northeast across both
terminals overnight with periods of reduced CIGS and VIS. Winds
will increase on Saturday morning to afternoon with southerly
winds near 15 kts. More rain and showers are possible during the
afternoon.  Mozley

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...MOZLEY