Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 301743
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1143 AM MDT FRI SEP 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 424 AM MDT Fri Sep 30 2016

Chances for showers and thunderstorms ramp up today as the upper
trof lifts out across CO.  Most of the activity early this morning
has been across northwest CO and best chances for precipitation this
morning will continue to be across the central mountains of the
forecast area in better proximity to this leading shortwave. By
afternoon showers and thunderstorms will re-develop across the
mountains as trailing portion of the upper trof axis moves across.
Most of the models focus strongest activity across the Pikes Peak
region late this afternoon through this evening to the north of the
surface low centered across the southern I-25 corridor. Upslope flow
and increasing moisture in this region will focus best potential for
showers and thunderstorms in the 22z to 03z timeframe. CAPE and deep
layer shear values are not strong enough to suggest any severe
potential today...but with soundings moistening...there will be an
increasing potential for locally heavy rainfall...which will elevate
the potential for flash flooding on burn scars.  Given the
relatively dry antecedent conditions...threat doesn`t look great
enough to warrant any watches...but Waldo and potential the Hayden
Pass Burn scars will need to be monitored. Temperatures today should
be a couple degrees cooler across the plains given more clouds
today...while mountain and valley temperatures range from values
similar to yesterday out west...to a couple degrees cooler across
the east.

Showers and thunderstorms will gradually decrease tonight with
activity lingering the longest across northern sections of the
southeast plains where there could be some weak upglide around the
northern side of the surface low helping to provide some continued
weak forcing.  Think most of the activity will be done by midnight
for southern CO.  Lows tonight should be a tad cooler than this
morning...especially out west where cloud cover will on the decrease.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 424 AM MDT Fri Sep 30 2016

Primary longer term meteorological challenges include
temperatures...pops and wind/fire weather threats at
times.

Recent longer range computer simulations...PV analysis and forecast
model soundings suggest that zonal to southwesterly upper flow
will prevail over the forecast district from Saturday into Monday
night with northwesterly to zonal upper then anticipated from
Tuesday into next Thursday as closed upper low nearing the Pacific
northwest coast on Saturday shifts into western Nevada by Sunday
night and then traverses Wyoming Tuesday before shifting into
northern Minnesota by later Thursday.

Initially...have depicted basically isolated shower and
thunderstorm activity...favoring higher terrain locations from
Saturday into Saturday evening with generally dry conditions then
anticipated from later Saturday evening into Sunday night. Then
next round of primarily low-grade shower and thunderstorm
activity should be noted from Monday into Wednesday before dry
conditions return by next Thursday.

At this time...it appears that the highest potential for gusty
gradient winds over the forecast district should be realized from
Sunday night into Wednesday with the highest potential of fire
weather concerns expected Monday and Tuesday.

Finally, above seasonal early October temperatures should be noted
from Saturday into Tuesday morning with near to below seasonal
temperatures then projected from Tuesday into next Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1128 AM MDT Fri Sep 30 2016

VFR conditions will  continue at all TAF sites today and tonight.
Convection will develop over the mountains this afternoon and
spread to lower elevations late, and will include a VCTS at KCOS
and KPUB after about 22z-23z. Models suggest fairly widespread
storms around KCOS around 00z, and will include a tempo group for
tsra at the terminal until about 03z. Moisture in place over the
mountains, with passes and higher peaks along the contdvd already
obscured. Expect -shra/-tsra to expand in coverage over the
mountains this afternoon and persist into the evening, with areas
of IFR cigs/vis over most mountain ranges through 06z.

&&

.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...PETERSEN


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