Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 271005
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
405 AM MDT Sat May 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 405 AM MDT Sat May 27 2017

Low stratus has moved over nrn Teller and northern El Paso counties,
and are beginning to move into Kiowa county.  The low clouds have
had a hard time spreading southward as the NAM has forecast, due to
the strong northerly downslope sfc winds that are occurring over El
Paso and Pueblo counties.  The HRRR shows the sfc winds weakening
over srn El Paso and Pueblo counties toward 12Z.  By 12Z low clouds
will probably cover much of the southeast plains with the best
coverage from KLHX and eastward and over nrn El Paso county. The
stratus is then expected to dissipate from west to east thru the
morning hours.

An upper level trof will be moving over CO today and tonight, from
northwest to southeast.  There will be good low and mid level mstr
over eastern areas this afternoon and evening, and with the
disturbance moving over the area there should be a good chance for
showers/tstms over the ern mtns and plains, and over the central
mtns.  With more limited mstr over the southwest mtns and San Luis
Valley, showers/tstms should be more isolated to scattered.

It looks like showers will probably start over the central mtns
first today in the mid to late morning time-frame, and will then
spread into Pikes Peak and Teller county by noon.  It looks like in
the early afternoon pcpn over mtn areas will spread south into the
southwest mtns and the nrn Sangres and Wets.  The forecast models
also show widespread pcpn developing ovr El Paso county in the early
afternoon.  Pcpn then spreads along the I-25 corridor and all but
the far southeast plains by mid to late afternoon.

SPC shows a marginal risk of severe wx today over most of the
southeast plains.  The NAM12 show the highest area of CAPE this
afternoon (800-1200 J/kg) from near the Wet mtns to the KTAD area
and eastward acrs Las Animas and Baca counties.  Deep layer shear
values are expected to be 50-60 kts.  Lapse rates around 18Z are
expected to be from about 7 C/km over El Paso county to around 8
C/km over the southern portions of the sern plains.  By 21Z lapse
rates over northern areas are expected to be 5-6 C/km,  and 8-9 C/km
over the southern areas.  It appears the best chance for severe wx
will probably be over the srn I-25 corridor area, south of Pueblo,
and over Las Animas and Baca counties where the will likely see the
best instability.

Widespread pcpn continues acrs most of the sern plains thru the
evening and then ends by late night.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 405 AM MDT Sat May 27 2017

An unsettled pattern will remain in place across Colorado through
the extended period.

Sunday...An upper shortwave is forecast to be exiting the region
Sunday morning, while a ridge of high pressure develops over the
western US. Slightly cooler air will remain in place, while somewhat
limited moisture will keep convection chances mainly tied to the
higher terrain. Look for high temps in the mid 60s to mid 70s.

Monday through Wednesday...The EC model is leaning towards pushing
the region into a diurnal spring/summer convection pattern, while
the GFS is staying exceptionally wet through the long range. Both
models do indicate that a ridge of high pressure over the western US
will strengthen and gradually slip towards Colorado , but also show
that a closed low will develop over the CA baja. This will help to
draw moisture up into the Four Corners region, providing for a daily
chance of aftn and eve showers and thunderstorms. Expect a gradual
warming trend through the week, with max temps climbing into the
upper 60s for the high valleys, and 70s to around 80F for the
plains.

Thursday and Friday...Very similar weather trends expected for the
end of the work week, though the upper pattern shifts slightly. By
Thu the upper ridge axis will have moved east and be located over
the state, and then east of Colorado for Fri. The flow aloft becomes
more westerly for Fri, but models show that for both days there will
still be the chance for aftn and eve showers and thunderstorms, with
no significant change in the ongoing temps. Therefore, expect max
temps in the 70s to around 80F for both days. Moore

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 405 AM MDT Sat May 27 2017

Low stratus in the vicinity of KPUB and KCOS should dissipate by
midmorning with VFR conditions then expected.  However, showers and
tstms are expected this afternoon and evening at KPUB and KCOS and
they may at times cause MVFR conditions.  KALS should have VFR
conditions today and tonight.  There could be some showers/tstms in
the vicinity of KALS this afternoon and evening, and if pcpn is
moderate to heavy, it could cause brief MVFR conditions.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...28


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