Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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FXUS62 KRAH 281855

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
255 PM EDT Fri Oct 28 2016

In the wake of the cold front exiting off the coast, high pressure
will build south east into the area in the through the weekend.
A dry back-door cold front will push south through the area
Sunday night


As of 132 PM Friday...

High pressure over the southern Ohio Valley will build east into the
region today and tonight. Cold dry air advection will be weak at the
more southern latitudes, which will support highs a category cooler
than yesterday at most locations. Highs ranging from upper 60s north
to mid/upper 70s south.

Good radiational cooling conditions tonight will result in much
cooler overnight lows compared to last night, but still a bit warmer
than what`s typical for late October. Lows ranging from mid 40s NE
to upper 40s lower 50s elsewhere.


As of 132 PM Friday...

Upper level ridge over the Southern/Central plains will
expand east over the region on Saturday. The resultant
rising heights and warming aloft coupled with onset
of southerly return flow will result in a quick moderation
in temperatures. Dry adiabatic mixing to 925-950mb supports
some of the warmer statistical guidance, which has performed/verified
better with the warmer temperature days we`ve seen over the past
couple of weeks. Under full compliments of sun, highs in the
upper 70s to near 80, perhaps a smidgen cooler into the mid 70s
across the far NE tier. Mild overnight lows in the mid 50s.


As of 245 PM Friday...

Sunday/Sunday Night: Dry conditions and temperatures 10-15F above
normal (low/mid 80s for highs and mid/uper 50s for lows) are
expected on Sunday in association with a warm/dry southwesterly flow
in advance of a cold front approaching the region from the north.

Monday/Tuesday: Continued dry conditions. Although the front will
stall just north of the area Sunday night, it is expected to surge
S/SE through central NC during the day Monday as high pressure
strengthens over the Great Lakes and builds east toward New England.
Greater than normal uncertainty exists with regard to the
timing/location of the front on Monday, thus high temps remain
difficult to ascertain. At this time, expect highs ranging from the
upper 60s (NE Coastal Plain) to lower 80s (far SW Piedmont), with
lows ranging from near 50F (NE Coastal Plain) to mid/upper 50s (SW
Piedmont) Monday night. In the wake of the backdoor front, expect
the coolest temps of the week on Tuesday, highs in the low/mid 70s
and lows Tuesday night in the mid 50s/

Wednesday/Thursday: Continued dry conditions along with a warm-up as
an upper level ridge strengthens along the Southeast coast. Expect
highs around 80F both days with lows in the mid/upper 50s.

Friday/Saturday: Well above normal uncertainty in this period. Some
chance for precipitation may exist Fri/Sat as an upper level wave
digs southeast toward the region, though 12Z model guidance remains
in significant disagreement with regard to the evolution of this
feature, thus the forecast will remain dry at this time, with highs
in the 70s (Fri) and 60s (Sat). -Vincent


.AVIATION /18Z Friday through Wednesday/...
As of 132 PM Friday...

High pressure will build south and east into the area through
early Saturday, resulting in VFR conditions for the 24 hour period.
As the high shifts over the area, light northerly winds of 5 to 8 kts
will shift to southerly Saturday morning and then southwesterly
Saturday afternoon.


Dry VFR conditions will persist through the middle part of next week
as a strong mid/upper level ridge resides over the region.


                                       REC           REC
          REC           REC            LO            HI          REC
DAY       MAX    YR     MIN    YR      MAX   YR      MIN   YR
PCPN    YR RDU Records 10/29      83   1950     25   1976     47
1925     66   1984   0.87   2011 10/30      86   1996     24   1965
   45   1925     65   1918   3.41   1917 GSO Records 10/29      84
1927     26   1976     48   2002     64   1984   1.70   1908 10/30
   83   1996     25   1965     41   1925     62   2004   3.19   1949
FAY Records 10/29      85   1927     26   1976     50   1976     69
 1984   1.05   1930 10/30      87   1950     24   1952     48   1925
    67   1984   0.72   1935





LONG TERM...Vincent
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