Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC
FXUS62 KRAH 310022
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
825 PM EDT Mon May 30 2016
.SYNOPSIS...The remnants of Tropical Storm Bonnie will slowly
meander northeast along the Carolina coast to a position near Cape
Hatteras by Thursday. A cold front will approach from the west
late in the work week as the remnants of Bonnie finally move
.NEAR TERM /Tonight/...
As of 825 PM Monday...
Scattered to numerous showers and storms have dwindled in coverage
and intensity since 22Z, and this trend should continue through the
rest of the evening. Highest threat for showers through 04z will
remain along moisture corridor, depicted by meso-analysis extending
along and east of highway 1.
Model guidance in good agreement in pushing the moisture plume,
currently covering the coastal plain, eastward overnight into
Tuesday. This loss of deep moisture should lend to a possible
decrease in afternoon convection on Tuesday.
Residual low level moisture overnight should lead to the development
of areas of fog and widespread low clouds after 06z, persisting into
the mid-late morning hours of Tuesday. Overnight temps generally in
the mid-upper 60s.
.SHORT TERM /Tuesday through Tuesday night/...
As of 345 PM Monday...
Not a lot of change in conditions are expected on Tuesday and
Tuesday night as the remnant low of Bonnie slowly meanders up the
Carolina coast. While the upper level trough across the Carolinas
lifts somewhat on Tuesday and Tuesday night, the trough axis shifts
only ever so slightly east. The air mass across the region changes
very little with deep moisture persisting as precipitable water
values at or above 1.5 inches across much of the RAH CWA.
Accordingly, sensible weather conditions on Tuesday should be
similar to those of today with areas of morning stratus and fog
giving way to improving conditions with some breaks of sunshine,
especially in the western and southern Piedmont. Primarily
diurnally forced convection should redevelop on Tuesday, with perhaps
a subtly decrease in coverage with convection most widespread during
the afternoon and early evening. Showers and a few thunderstorms
will be most numerous across the northeast Piedmont and northern
Coastal Plain. Highs in the low-mid 80s, coolest east where clouds
should be thickest with greater shower coverage. Lows mostly in the
mid 60s. -blaes
.LONG TERM /Wednesday through Monday/...
As of 345 PM Monday...
A rather unsettled period expected as the remnants of Bonnie
slowly drift up the NC coast on Wednesday and Thursday. The
remnant surface low should move offshore on Friday as the western
Atlantic ridge weakens and an initial northern stream short wave
trough moves across the Great Lakes and Northeast on Friday and an
associated cold front drops into the Mid Atlantic. The result will be
a continuation of a fair amount of cloudiness and the threat of
mainly afternoon or evening scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Rain chances should decrease a bit on Wednesday into early Thursday
before ramping up again on Friday as the cold front approaches.
It will be muggy with highs in the lower to mid 80s on Wednesday
warming into the mid to upper 80s by Friday. Morning lows will range
in the mid to upper 60s.
Forecast confidence decreases for the end of the period as the
southern extent of the developing trough in the Plains closes off in
Texas on Friday into Saturday as the northern portion of the trough
deepens and slowly moves east over the weekend into Monday. A cold
front will linger across the area over the weekend before possibly
being pushed offshore on Monday. This will result in increasing rain
chances over the weekend with highs in the lower to mid 80s and lows
in the 60s. -blaes
.AVIATION /00Z Tuesday through Friday/...
As of 730 PM Monday...
Periods of adverse aviation conditions are expected across central
NC overnight into Tuesday.
The coverage and intensity of the shower and thunderstorms will
slowly decrease during the evening with precip chances low enough
overnight to exclude a mention in the TAF. Expect low stratus and
fog to develop again overnight, mainly after midnight with the
greatest confidence of IFR to possibly LIFR cigs and vsbys across
the eastern Piedmont and Sandhills including KRWI/KRDU/KFAY with
slightly better conditions in the Triad at KINT/KGSO.
Looking beyond 18Z Tuesday: Improving sky conditions are expected on
Tuesday as stratus lifts during the day with additional showers and
thunderstorms developing during the afternoon and early evening
Tuesday. Another period of sub-VFR conditions in fog/stratus expected
Tuesday night. A somewhat unsettled period of weather is expected for
Wednesday through Friday with a slight decrease in convective
coverage on Wednesday into early Thursday before increasing again as
a cold front approaches late Thursday into Friday.