Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000
FXUS62 KRAH 171956
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
256 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WILL GRADUALLY EXTEND INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A STORM
SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE TEXAS GULF COAST FRIDAY... THEN
STRENGTHEN AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 215 PM WEDNESDAY...

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1032MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THAT EXTENDED INTO MUCH
OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.. A WEST TO NORTHWEST LOW/MID FLOW BEHIND THE
DEPARTING TROUGH HAS RESULTED IN A WEAK LEE TROUGH OVER THE
FOOTHILLS/WESTERN PIEDMONT OF THE CAROLINAS AND VIRGINIA. LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENCE HAS RESULTED IN SUNNY SKIES EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT AS ENERGY LOCATED
ACROSS TX/OK THIS AFTERNOON BEGINS TO LIFT EAST AND SHEARS OUT. NOT
SURE HOW OPAQUE THE CLOUDINESS WILL BE BUT WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO SEE
THE WANNING CRESCENT MOON FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES. GUIDANCE TEMPS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL FORECAST LOWS
IN THE 31 TO 36 RANGE. -BLAES
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 215 PM WEDNESDAY...

MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES EARLY ON THURSDAY AND GIVES WAY TO A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT SLIDES BY ACROSS THE OH VALLEY
AND THE MID ATLANTIC THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT FAIR WEATHER DURING THE
PERIOD WITH A FAIRLY THICK VEIL OF HIGH AND ESPECIALLY MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS. GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY THE GFS HAS BEEN HINTING AT SOME
LIGHT PRECIP MAKING IT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT ON THURSDAY. RECENT RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF THIS AND WE EXPECT
A DRY PERIOD AND HAVE LOWERED POPS. WITH A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD
COVER...HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL SLOWLY REACH THE 48 TO 55 RANGE. LOOK
FOR LESS VARIABILITY IN LOWS ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LINGER MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS...LOWS SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 32 AND 36 DEGREES. -BLAES
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 254 PM WEDNESDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL EXTEND IN TO THE
AREA... WHILE WE REMAIN UNDER CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. A SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY WILL LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTHERN GOM LATE FRIDAY.. AND MOVE OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST ON SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD RAIN IN
TO THE REGION BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY... AND RAIN WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
SUNDAY MORNING. RAIN STILL LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN PRECIP TYPE...
HOWEVER THERE CONTINUES BE THE POSSIBILITY OF FEW WET SNOWFLAKES
MIXING IN ACROSS THE TYPICAL NORTHWEST PIEDMONT AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEDGE INTO THE AREA MONDAY...
AND CLOUDS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW
LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. MODELS BRING A STRONG SHORTWAVE INTO THE
CENTRAL US ON TUESDAY... AND DIG A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE PLAINS AS
FLOW BECOMES HIGHLY AMPLIFIED. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS LOOK LIKELY MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 115 PM WEDNESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN FAVORABLE AVIATION CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY...
WITH VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATING AND WEAK LOW LEVEL WINDS. HIGH THIN
CLOUDS NOW OVER THE AREA WILL SLOWLY THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGH
THURSDAY... AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS BEGIN TO SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST...
DUE TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS FROM NRN MEXICO ACROSS TX AND THE
GULF/SOUTHEAST STATES. BUT CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE TAF
VALID PERIOD AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS OVER THE AREA.

LOOKING BEYOND 18Z THU... VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH FRI
EVENING WITH PERIODS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND VFR VSBYS... BUT
POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM SAT THROUGH MON. A STORM
SYSTEM WILL FORM OVER THE TX GULF COAST LATE FRI... WITH LOW
PRESSURE STRENGTHENING AS IT TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF
STATES SATURDAY... TO ALONG OR JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SAT
NIGHT AND SUN. WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY
FROM EARLY SAT MORNING (POTENTIALLY BEFORE DAYBREAK) THROUGH SAT.
RAIN WILL TAPER TO PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE FOR SAT NIGHT THROUGH AT
LEAST SUN NIGHT WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING. LOW CIGS COULD
HOLD THROUGH MON AS WELL. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BLAES
NEAR TERM...BLAES
SHORT TERM...BLAES
LONG TERM...SEC
AVIATION...HARTFIELD


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