Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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FXUS65 KREV 251028
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
228 AM PST THU DEC 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY BEHIND YESTERDAY`S
COLD FRONT. A COLD NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SOME
LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COLD AIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA THIS
CHRISTMAS MORNING WITH SOME LOCALLY BRISK NORTH WINDS. EXPECT THE
WINDS TO CONTINUE DURING THE DAY WHILE HIGHS REMAIN IN THE 30S AND
THE WIND MAKING IT FEEL QUITE A BIT COLDER. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE EAST OF HIGHWAY 95 AND NEAR THE OREGON BORDER
TODAY WHERE THE GREATEST INSTABILITY LIES, BUT EVEN THEN IT WILL
BE ISOLATED AT BEST.

CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES. THE SURFACE
GRADIENT DOESN`T COMPLETELY RELAX SO TEMPERATURES WILL NOT
NECESSARILY BOTTOM OUT. COLD AGAIN FRIDAY DESPITE WARMING TEMPS
ALOFT WITH STRONG INVERSIONS EXPECTED. MTN TEMPS WILL WARM A FEW
DEGREES, HOWEVER. COLDEST NIGHT LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
WIDESPREAD SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS IN THE VALLEYS UNDER LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT, MORE OF A BACKDOOR VARIETY, LOOKS TO ARRIVE
SUNDAY. SOME CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
IF THE CLOUD COVER IS EXTENSIVE, EVEN IF IT IS OF THE MID AND HIGH
VARIETY, IT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES QUITE COOL SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY
IN THE VALLEYS OF WESTERN NEVADA. LOWERED TEMPS HERE A LITTLE
SATURDAY, BUT OTHERWISE MADE FEW CHANGES. WALLMANN

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
TRENDED TEMPERATURES COLDER DURING THIS PERIOD AS ENERGY DROPPING
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE WESTERN U.S. HELPS CARVE OUT DEEP COLD
TROUGH WITH FLOW OUT OF NORTHERN CANADA. 00Z DETERMINISTIC RUNS
HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THIS LARGE SCALE TROUGH ALTHOUGH THERE ARE
EXPECTED DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF SMALLER SCALE FEATURES.
GIVEN THIS PATTERN, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WE WILL SEE WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION, CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AT ALL VALLEY FLOORS, SO ANY PRECIPITATION
WILL FALL AS SNOW.

A SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
AND BEGIN TO FILTER COLDER AIR INTO WESTERN NV AND EASTERN SIERRA
SUNDAY. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY REACH FAR NORTHERN AREAS SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THIS FEATURE, WHILE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE MOST AREAS, ESPECIALLY RIDGE LEVEL. A SECOND SHORTWAVE
WILL FOLLOW MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WHICH WILL PUSH MUCH COLDER AIR
SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION AND BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOW TO
MUCH OF WESTERN NV AND THE EASTERN SIERRA. SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE A
WHOLE LOT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT, BUT STILL THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW.

THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AS HIGHS WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH FREEZING MON-WED OF NEXT WEEK. WE HAVE LOWERED
TEMPS TOWARD THE COLDER ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE. IF WE GET ANY
SNOWFALL, THEN TEMPS MAY EVEN BE COLDER. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE RIDGES TUE-WED WITH BRISK CONDITIONS FOR
VALLEY FLOORS. HOHMANN

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WITH STRONG NORTH FLOW ALOFT OVER THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NV.
NORTHEAST SIERRA RIDGE WINDS WILL GUST TO 40-50KT. BRISK NORTH
WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED AROUND 15KT FOR WESTERN NV VALLEYS THIS
AFTERNOON. HOHMANN

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




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