Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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FXUS65 KREV 241123
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
323 AM PST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES WARM TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY MID-WEEK
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC BUILDS INTO NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR VALLEY
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW NEXT WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
THE MAIN CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WERE TO INCREASE RIDGE
WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN TO FAR NORTHERN
WASHOE COUNTY AND THE SURPRISE VALLEY THIS EVENING.

AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC WILL SLOWLY BUILD OVER EASTERN
CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA THROUGH MID-WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE TODAY BEFORE WARMING TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
BY MID-WEEK AS SUBSIDENCE WARMING ALOFT WORKS INTO THE VALLEYS AND
THE COOL SURFACE HIGH MODIFIES.

PRECIPITATION-WISE, THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN OR
SPRINKLES IN THE SURPRISE VALLEY AND ACROSS FAR NORTHERN WASHOE
COUNTY TONIGHT DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION (WAA). IT WILL BE A GLANCING
BLOW WITH MARGINAL MOISTURE DEPTH FOR PRECIPITATION AS THE STRONGEST
WAA WILL BE UP IN OREGON. THEREFORE, ANY PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN
QUITE LIGHT. SNYDER

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WEEKEND, DRY WEATHER
WILL PREVAIL WITH AREAS OF HIGH CLOUDS AS A FLAT RIDGE REMAINS
OVER THE GREAT BASIN. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR BOTH THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
SIERRA VALLEYS ON THURSDAY. FRIDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER AS
THE RIDGE STARTS TO WEAKEN AND THICKER CLOUD COVER SPREADS ACROSS
THE REGION.

THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS LOOKING MORE PROMISING FOR A
TRANSITION TO A WETTER PATTERN. LIGHT RAIN IS PROJECTED TO SPREAD
INTO NORTHEAST CA-NORTHWEST NV FRIDAY NIGHT, THEN EDGE SLOWLY EAST
AND SOUTH ON SATURDAY. THIS PRECIP IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LEADING
SHORTWAVE WHILE THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE CA COAST, SO
SNOW LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN RATHER HIGH.

FOR SUNDAY, ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IS LIKELY TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
SIERRA AND INTO WESTERN NV, WITH COOLER AIR ALSO SLOWLY ADVANCING
OVER THE REGION. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR SNOW LEVELS BUT
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME WEATHER IMPACTS ON THE BUSY TRAVEL DAY
OVER THE SIERRA AND INTO THE TAHOE BASIN FOR SUNDAY. WHILE POPS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE TRENDING UPWARD FOR SUNDAY, THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
IS TARGETING SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY DECEMBER 1 FOR THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY FOR RAIN AND SNOW, WITH SOME SNOW POSSIBLE DOWN INTO
LOWER ELEVATIONS. KEEP POSTED TO THE LATEST UPDATES AND DISCUSSIONS
AS SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND SNOW COULD FINALLY REACH THE SIERRA AND
WESTERN NEVADA AS THE NEW MONTH BEGINS. MJD

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THRU TUESDAY.
ONLY EXCEPTION IS AROUND KTRK WHERE PATCHY FZFG IS EXPECTED THIS
MORNING AND AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING, MAINLY BETWEEN 11Z-16Z. DRY
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THANKSGIVING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WEST. FUENTES/MJD

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)





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