Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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FXUS65 KREV 032105
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
205 PM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL CONTINUE THE
POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
LOCAL FLASH FLOODING, FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THESE STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE SHORT TERM AS DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE EASTERN SIERRA INTO WESTERN NEVADA. CURRENT DEW POINTS
ARE IN THE 50S WITH PW 1-1.2 INCHES, NEAR RECORD LEVELS FOR EARLY
JULY. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED FROM TAHOE NORTH TO WESTERN LASSEN
COUNTY WITH ANOTHER LINE OVER THE SIERRA FRONT. THESE STORMS ARE
ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A SHORT WAVE EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY MOVING
NORTH THROUGH THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY. ANY STORM IS CAPABLE OF
TORRENTIAL RAINS IN THIS ENVIRONMENT AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING
WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN THIS EVENING. SOUTH OF THIS WAVE,
THERE IS SUBSIDENCE SO CUT BACK ON THE STORMS THIS EVENING FOR
MONO-MINERAL COUNTIES.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WIND DOWN OVERNIGHT, BUT A FEW
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. SATURDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE IT HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BE A VERY ACTIVE DAY AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE
INTO WESTERN NEVADA DURING THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
REMAIN HIGH ALONG WITH LIGHT FLOW ALOFT FOR SLOW MOVING STORMS.
AGAIN, LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING REMAINS A CONCERN AND IT COULD
AFFECT SEVERAL AREAS TOMORROW. CONSIDERED ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH, BUT WILL HOLD OFF. MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME MORNING CLOUD
COVER WHICH MAY LIMIT THE INSTABILITY ENOUGH TO KEEP THE THREAT
LOWER. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THE BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE ALONG THE
395 CORRIDOR WHERE MUCH OF THE RAINFALL HAS FALLEN THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS. IN ADDITION, A WEAK AFTERNOON ZEPHYR IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP WHICH WOULD ENHANCE CONVERGENCE AND ADD LOW LEVEL FORCING.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WELL INTO THE
EVENING AT LEAST NORTH OF I-80 AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH
BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A QUIETER DAY WITH A
LITTLE LESS MOISTURE AND SOME SUBSIDENCE BEHIND SATURDAY`S WAVE.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL DEVELOP AND PROPAGATE EAST
DURING THE DAY WITH ANOTHER WEAK ZEPHYR. WALLMANN

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
SO MODERATE CHANGERS WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST, MAINLY
CONCERNING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE. MID RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE SOME INITIAL TIMING VARIANCES
FOR MONDAY BETWEEN GFS AND THE ECMWF WITH THE EC A LITTLE SLOWER
WITH THE WAVE ON MONDAY. HOWEVER, AGREEMENT BECOMES MORE
CONSISTENT MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD.

LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING THE SIERRA WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASING.
PREVIOUSLY, THE THOUGHTS WERE THAT FLOW WOULD BE TOO DRY FOR
CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW. HOWEVER, RESIDUAL
MOISTURE WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. THE LOWEST LEVELS
ARE DRIER, SUGGESTING THAT SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING MODERATE TO STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS. DID CHANGE SOME OF
THE THUNDERSTORM PLACE MORE OVER THE SIERRA INITIALLY BEFORE
TRANSITIONING INTO MAINLY WESTERN NEVADA WITH STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW
IN THE AFTERNOONS.

OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES WILL STAY MUCH CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES.
THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EASTWARD ALLOWING THE
HEAT DOME TO ABATE ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA AND THE SIERRA.

&&

.AVIATION...
AVIATION WEATHER WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AS
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AGAIN OVER THE REGION.
BEST COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE ALONG THE SIERRA AND JUST
EAST INTO FAR WESTERN NEVADA AND NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA. OUTSIDE THE
STORMS VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY...BUT WITHIN THE STORMS LOWERED
CIGS AND VSBYS ARE LIKELY ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SMALL HAIL.
TURBULENCE IS LIKELY NEAR THE STORMS AS WELL.

ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY...THEN LESS STORMS
ARE LIKELY FOR SUNDAY. 20/BOYD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)


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