Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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FXUS65 KREV 041114
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
314 AM PST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WEST COAST THIS
WEEK WHICH WILL PROVIDE MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A WARMING
TREND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS PREVAILING THIS MORNING AS MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION. WE WILL ENTER A QUIET WEATHER
PATTERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND BEGINS PUSHING
ACROSS THE WEST COAST TODAY. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN DRY
CONDITIONS WITH A STEADY WARMING TREND HEADING INTO THE WEEK.

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
OVERHEAD. THIS COMBINED WITH WARMING ALOFT WILL PRODUCE SOME WEAK
MIXING IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE SO THE WARMING TREND SHOULD BE
GRADUAL IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS SEEING A BIT
MORE WARMING AS THE RIDGE BUILDS. EXPECTING TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON TO HOVER AROUND SEASON AVERAGES WITH LOWER TO MID 50S
ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA AND MID 40S FOR SIERRA VALLEYS. HIGHS WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WITH UPPER 50S IN THE SIERRA. LIGHT WINDS, MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS, AND A DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
SIZEABLE DIURNAL TEMPERATURES SWINGS WITH CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOWS
EXPECTED. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE 20S WITH TEENS POSSIBLE IN
OUTLYING VALLEYS ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA WITH 20S AND TEENS ACROSS
THE SIERRA AND FAR NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA. FUENTES


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY NIGHT (AND PROBABLY THROUGH TUESDAY). THE LAST COUPLE
RUNS OF THE GFS BRING A LEAD WAVE IN TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE AND
BRING IN SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION (GENERALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50)
ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER, THIS IS A RECENT DEVELOPMENT THAT DOES NOT
HAVE MUCH OTHER MODEL SUPPORT SO KEPT FORECAST DRY THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NOW.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES, WELL ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES AND
CLEAR TO OCCASIONALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
LONG TERM. DRY AIR WILL BE IN PLACE AND WILL, WITH THE HELP OF LIGHT
WINDS, SUPPORT LARGE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE SWINGS.

LOOKING OUT BEYOND THE LONG TERM FORECAST TO NEXT WEDNESDAY, THERE
IS STILL EVIDENCE FOR AT LEAST SOME PRECIPITATION REACHING THE
SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA. HOWEVER, THERE ARE SOME SIGNS THAT AN
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC MAY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
INTO THE CALIFORNIA COAST. AGAIN, THERE IS EVIDENCE FOR AT LEAST
SOME PRECIPITATION REACHING THE REGION BY NEXT WEDNESDAY BUT IT MAY
BE MUCH LESS IF THE MOISTURE FEED FRACTURES RATHER THAN STAYS INTACT
AS IT MOVES INLAND. SNYDER

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DIRECTLY OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
NEVADA ON THURSDAY AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BRINGING
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS. SNYDER

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)






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