Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43
000
FXUS65 KREV 280908
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
208 AM PDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
EAST WINDS TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. WILDFIRES
ON THE WEST SLOPES MAY PRODUCE PERIODS OF HAZE NEAR THE SIERRA
CREST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL BRING
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, WHILE INCREASING MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

FEW CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST, AS HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
WEST COAST TODAY WILL KEEP DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS WITH VERY
SPARSE CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION. WILDFIRE SMOKE AT THE SURFACE
SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE SIERRA CREST AS LIGHT EAST FLOW
PREVAILS FROM THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 650 MB. IF NEW SMOKE PLUMES
FROM THE WILLOW AND LOWELL FIRES PUSH ABOVE 650 MB (ABOUT
12,000-13,000 FEET MSL) WHERE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST, HAZY
CONDITIONS COULD RETURN TO THE SIERRA BY LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING BUT VISIBILITY AND AIR QUALITY IMPACTS SHOULD BE
MINIMAL. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL EDGE UPWARD ABOUT 3-6 DEGREES
FROM YESTERDAY, BUT REMAINING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, THE PREDOMINANT RIDGE OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND WEST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN,
LEADING TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SOME OF THE WARMER VALLEYS
IN WEST CENTRAL NV HAVE A CHANCE OF REACHING 100 DEGREES BY
THURSDAY. ALONG WITH THE INCREASED TEMPERATURES WILL COME MORE
COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON CUMULUS. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, SOME MID-
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE MAY SPREAD INTO MONO COUNTY AND BRING A SLIGHT
POSSIBILITY OF HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE WE LEFT THE MENTION
OF THUNDER ACROSS MUCH OF MONO COUNTY ON THURSDAY WHICH IS
MORE IN LINE WITH THE NAM GUIDANCE, THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF WOULD
KEEP THE MORE FAVORABLE INSTABILITY AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE FARTHER
SOUTH, LIMITING THE CONVECTIVE THREAT TO EXTREME SOUTHERN MONO
COUNTY AT BEST. MJD

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

NO CHANGES WERE MADE THIS MORNING AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
GENERAL TREND TOWARD INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. THE AREA
WILL BE BETWEEN A RIDGE CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AND TROUGH
OFF THE WEST COAST. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
WITH THE ECMWF TURNING THE FLOW MORE SOUTHWEST SUN-MON WHICH WOULD
HAVE A LIMITING EFFECT ON CONVECTION. THE 00Z GFS IS PERSISTENT
WITH A CONTINUATION OF SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ALTHOUGH THERE IS
SOME ENSEMBLE SPREAD IN THE POSITION OF UPPER LOW. THE GFS ALSO
CONTINUED TO SHOW SOME MINOR PERTURBATIONS IN THE FLOW THAT COULD
KEEP CONVECTION GOING OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW RIGHT NOW ON
THE DAY TO DAY DETAILS, SO ANYONE WITH OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THIS
WEEKEND SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER FORECAST CLOSELY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE DOWNWARD A BIT AS MORE CLOUDS AND
MOISTURE WORK THEIR WAY INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER, HIGHS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH 80S SIERRA AND 90S LOWER ELEVATIONS.
HOHMANN

&&

.AVIATION...

AN EASTERLY GRADIENT WILL PERSIST TODAY WITH GUSTY WINDS OVER
SIERRA RIDGES DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS FLOW WILL KEEP MOST
OF THE HAZE AND SMOKE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE CREST AND AWAY FROM
EASTERN SIERRA TERMINALS. HOHMANN

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.