Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
FXUS65 KREV 312106
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
206 PM PDT TUE MAY 31 2016
High pressure will produce summertime conditions with afternoon
highs in the 80s for the Sierra and 90s to near 100 across western
Nevada this week. Record high temperatures are likely Friday and
Saturday. The threat for showers and thunderstorms will return
this weekend and early next week.
High pressure building over northern California and western Nevada
will dominate the weather pattern over the next several days. Only
needed to make a couple minor adjustments to the forecast for mid
For Wednesday, added a 15% chance of showers and thunderstorms
for Mono-Mineral counties with convective ensembles showing a
decent chance of a thunderstorm or two. The increase in winds may
also activate the convergence zone from Lassen Peak to Gerlach,
but the amount of dry air may be too much to overcome to get a
showers or storm to pop. Late afternoon and evening southwest to
west winds will develop with peak gusts around 30 mph, perhaps as
high as 35 mph along the Sierra Front. Those heading out to the
lakes should be prepared for choppy conditions after 3pm.
On Thursday, dry air deepens and removes the threat for
thunderstorms, though a few late afternoon build ups are possible
over Mineral County. Afternoon breezes will return but with peak
gusts near and below 25 mph. Brong
.LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday...
Few changes made again as the high slowly slides east this weekend
as a small upper low moves onto the coast. Hot temperatures to
continue Friday and Saturday with numerous records possible.
Saturday still looks to be the hottest day as some locations in
Western NV have the potential to hit 100 degrees. There is a 25%
chance the Reno Airport will hit the century mark which would be the
earliest 100 degree reading ever. Sunday temperatures will cool, at
least south of I-80 while areas near the Oregon border wait another
day to cool.
It still looks dry Friday with a small threat of isolated
thunderstorms late in the day Saturday due to the extreme heat. The
upper low moves into the San Joaquin Valley Sunday and will bring
with it cooling temps aloft and a little moisture. Thunderstorms
look more likely to occur, especially south of Highway 50. With hot
temps, dry low levels and storms moving near 15 kts, they will have
Monday, the low moves overhead into Western Nevada. Another day of
thunderstorms is expected, but with cooler temps and a little more
moisture, more rain is expected. The low pulls east Tuesday, but
enough instability remains for thunderstorms near the Oregon border.
Temps will also cool a little more as a deeper Pacific trough nears
the coast. Some afternoon west/southwest breezes are expected to
return Tuesday as highs cool to the 70s and 80s.
VFR conditions expected through Thursday with light winds overall. A
bit of a zephyr returns Wednesday with peak gusts to 20 kts from the
west. No convection is expected, although there is a small threat
over Mono County into the Sweetwaters at around 10% Wednesday
afternoon 21-03Z. The biggest threat would be wind gusts to 45kts.
The likelihood of record high temperatures later this week will
increase the melting rate of the high elevation snow pack in Mono
County. This will gradually increase flows on creeks and streams
across the eastern Sierra the next few days. Peak flows are
forecast for June 5-6, which may inundate meadows/campgrounds
near steams. Brong
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