Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 172235

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
535 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

...00z Aviation Forecast Update...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

An upper level shortwave trough is currently passing through the
region. Surface high pressure is just east of the area and some
gust up to 20 mph could occur at times during the day light hours
the rest of this afternoon and again on Wednesday as the high
remains just off to the east.

Highs will top out around the 70 degree mark this afternoon with
highs on Wednesday warming into the middle 70s. Lows tonight will
drop into the 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

An upper level ridge will build over the region Thursday and
Friday this will allow highs to top out in the upper 70s, with
some locations approaching the lower 80s. Moisture return will be
cut off from the Gulf through the work week leaving dry
conditions across the area.

The ridge will then start to be push of to the east Friday as an
upper level trough builds into the western U.S. Upper level energy
may track across the area well ahead of the main trough later
Friday. At this time moisture will be limited and not expecting
much rain chances with this leading wave on Friday.

As the ridge spreads off to the east, moisture will start to
spread north out of the Gulf ahead of the approaching system
Saturday. An associated cold front will spread across the area
later Saturday into early Sunday and will bring showers and storms
to the area. Some linger showers may occur into the day Sunday as
the trough passes over the area, but all in all this system will
move through the region fairly quickly. If enough instability can
develop there could be a conditional strong/severe risk, but this
will be dependent on how quickly and far north the moisture can
return ahead of this system, which still is a low confidence

Behind the front slightly cooler conditions will spread back into
the area Sunday into early next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 534 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

VFR conditions and very good flying weather will continue around
the Missouri Ozarks region for the next 24 hours. Light southerly
winds tonight between 5 and 8 knots will become a little gusty by
late Wednesday morning with gusts up to 20 knots possible. Mostly
clear skies will prevail.




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