Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 261121
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
521 AM CST Sun Feb 26 2017

...12Z Aviation Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)

South winds returned to the Ozarks overnight as temperatures
dropped into the 20s in most locations. Conditions were dry,
although an upper level disturbance was approaching the area from
the west, causing a focused area of lift over eastern Kansas. Due
to a dry airmass, precipitation was sublimating prior to reaching
the surface, and we think this trend will continue throughout
most of the morning.

As we moisten up a little this afternoon, we could experience some
light rain in some spots, particularly in central Missouri.
Therefore we do have slight chances of rain in the forecast, with
better chances up toward Rolla and Salem. Any rain that falls will
be light in nature, with only a trace to just a few hundredths of
an inch expected.

With broken to overcast skies today, afternoon highs may only
reach the middle to upper 40s.

For tonight, south winds will persist as moisture increases from
the Gulf of Mexico. Look for warmer temperatures with lows in the
middle to upper 30s. Slight chances for a shower or two will be
possible given the moisture advection. Better chances for rain
tonight will occur in south central Missouri, an area where models
are signaling a cluster of showers to develop.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)

Upper level southwest flow evolves by Monday continuing the
moisture transport into southern Missouri. Random showers will be
possible through Monday, however, by Monday night the precip
signal shifts to the northeast. Look for temperatures to warm into
the 60s.

By Tuesday temperatures are expected to exceed 70 degrees in most
areas. Moisture will continue to increase, helping to destabilize
the Ozarks airmass. This destabilization will set the stage for an
episode of severe thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday
night.

A frontal system will approach the region from the northwest,
helping to trigger these storms within a highly sheared airmass.

Storms could linger into early Wednesday, prior to shifting east.
We will insert a mention for severe thunderstorms within the
hazardous weather outlook and the rest of our messaging products.

An extended period of dry weather will begin Wednesday as a fast
zonal belt of westerlies ensues across the nation`s midsection.
This pattern looks to persist for several days, keeping moisture
at bay.

We do not foresee any Arctic intrusions, but an occasional shot
of Canadian air is still possible sending temperatures below
freezing for a night or two. Otherwise no significant wintry
precipitation is expected over the next seven days.

Given the wave 5 output through the next two weeks, the window for
wintry precipitation is closing for the 2016-2017 cold season.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 517 AM CST Sun Feb 26 2017

The main aviation concern during the day today will be an area of
light rain that is expected to affect the region from later this
morning through the afternoon hours. Ceilings should gradually
lower in association with this area of light rain, and while cigs
through the afternoon hours will generally remain in VFR
territory, brief dips to MVFR are possible at times. Visibility
should generally remain VFR given the light nature to the rain.

Later tonight, low stratus and perhaps some fog will be possible
across mainly southern and south central Missouri, potentially
affecting the BBG terminal.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Boxell


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