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000
FXUS63 KSGF 200207
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
907 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

...UPDATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 907 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

RATHER COMPLEX AND MESSY MESOSCALE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT.

LEAD BAND OF CONVECTION NOW EXTENDS FROM VERSAILLES TO BOLIVAR TO
JUST WEST OF SPRINGFIELD TO CASSVILLE. TO THIS POINT SPARSE
REPORTS INDICATE WINDS TO AROUND 45 MPH AND HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
DIMES WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS. PRETTY GOOD LIGHTNING SHOW
THOUGH AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND STRIKES WILL CONTINUE AS THIS
LINE HEADS EAST.

THE BIGGER CONCERN WILL BE BEHAVIOR OF CONVECTION TO OUR WEST AND
SOUTHWEST. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST
AND THIS WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE INTO THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. CONVECTION HAS REINTENSIFIED OVER SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS INTO
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. INCREASING...
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET IS INCREASING LOW LEVEL HELICITY...WITH
0-1KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES IN THE 200-300 M2/S2 RANGE.
THE DISCREET CELLS TO OUR WEST WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A RISK OF ALL
MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER AS THEY GRADUALLY MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR
THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS. PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI WILL BE MOST PRONE TO OBSERVING THIS
ACTIVITY (GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE NEOSHO TO
OSCEOLA). MLCAPE AND MUCAPE VALUES REMAIN AROUND 2000 J/KG IN THIS
AREA.

AS WE HEAD INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
WILL CONTINUE TO VEER...THOUGH REMAIN DIRECTED TOWARD A DIFFLUENT
FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS. WITH WINDS IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS
NEARLY STACKED/PARALLEL THIS WILL RESULT IN A FLASH FLOOD THREAT
AS CELLS WILL CONTINUALLY FIRE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST THIRD OR SO OF
THE OUTLOOK AREA...THIS IS WHERE THE BAND OF CONVECTION TO OUR
WEST WILL LIKELY STALL AND THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPINGE ON THE AFOREMENTIONED INCOMING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. WILL BE
HONING IN ON THE PREFERRED AREA FOR POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING AND
LIKELY SEND OUT A WATCH WITHIN THE HOUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE SEVERE WEATHER EVENTS CONTINUE TO TAKE
SHAPE FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...ISOLATED TORNADOES...AND FLOODING.

ON MONDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WHICH WILL MAINTAIN A BELT OF WESTERLIES ACROSS THE REGION. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION AND
BECOME ORIENTED PARALLEL WITH THE FLOW ALOFT. IT APPEARS THAT MORE
THAN AMPLE INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEER WILL BE IN PLACE TO
SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ESPECIALLY MONDAY EVENING AS A JET
STREAK COMES ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI. THE RISK
FOR SEVERE WILL INCREASE IF SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING AND SUBSEQUENT
DESTABILIZATION OCCURS.

PROGGED SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AS WELL
AS TRAINING CELLS. THIS COULD LEAD TO A PROLONGED SEVERE WEATHER
EVENT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY NIGHT INCLUDING TORNADOES. THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE ENHANCED ALONG AND JUST OF THE SAGGING FRONT FROM SOUTHEASTERN
KANSAS INTO SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI.

IN ADDITION A RICH SUPPLY OF MOISTURE WILL INTERACT  WITH THE FRONT
TO SUPPORT TORRENTIAL RATES. GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF THE FRONT
INTERACTING WITH A LOW LEVEL JET...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING
STORMS THE RISK FOR FLOODING WILL INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. THE NEED FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

ON TUESDAY...MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS
THE PRIMARY TROUGH AXIS SWINGS EAST BUT IT APPEARS THAT CONVECTION
WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY IF ANY CLEARING CAN TAKE PLACE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST.
MODELS CONTINUE SUGGEST PERIODIC CHANCES OF CONVECTION AS MINOR
DISTURBANCES COME OVER THE RIDGE BUT DETAILS ON TIMING AND
COVERAGE ARE UNCERTAIN. OTHERWISE SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 659 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO BLOSSOM
ACROSS WESTERN MISSOURI AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL POSE A RISK OF
LIGHTNING AND A ISOLATED RISK FOR WIND/HAIL. MORE SUBSTANTIAL
THUNDERSTORMS (BOTH LINEAR AND CELLULAR) ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS
KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA RESPECTIVELY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION BETWEEN 02Z-06Z. THIS WILL POSE A RISK OF LARGE HAIL
AND STRONG WINDS. THE EVOLUTION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HEADING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT REMAINS IN QUESTION. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER AND PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI
MUCH OF THE NIGHT...JUST NORTH OF THE AERODROMES. WILL NEED TO
CLOSELY MONITOR JUST EXACTLY WHERE THIS AXIS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL SET UP AND FURTHER FORECAST REFINEMENTS ARE EXPECTED. IN
ADDITION TO THE RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORMS...ENVIRONMENTAL
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AT ALL SITES WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE...GAGAN
SHORT TERM...FOSTER
LONG TERM...FOSTER
AVIATION...GAGAN