588
FXUS64 KSJT 131730
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1230 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

Lows stratus has developed over West Central Texas, except for
Crockett county. Visibilities have fallen to 1/2 mile or less at
times over much of the CWA south of I-20, and have issued a dense
fog for that area through 8 AM. With cloud heights of 2-3 hundred
feet, be especially careful in the hills south of Sweetwater and
Abilene.

A Pacific front will move through from north to south this
morning, with northwest winds of 5 to 15 mph, bringing in drier
air, and dissipating the stratus mid morning through noon. An
isolated shower is possible in Haskell and Throckmorton counties
early morning as the front moves through. Full sun the rest of day
will allow temperatures to rise to highs ranging from the lower
80s in the Big Country...to upper 80s to 90 degrees from the
Concho Valley southward to I-10 to Ozona, Sonora and Junction.

Winds become light overnight. With clear skies, low temperatures
will fall into the mid and upper 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 453 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

Quiet weather should continue through Tuesday as a shortwave ridge
builds in over the Southern Plains. High temperatures should reach
the upper 80s to low 90s.

The next weather system that looks to impact west central Texas will
be late Wednesday through Thursday.  At the mid-levels a trough of
low pressure will move into the southern Plains on Wednesday. Models
show strong and moist southerly flow ahead of this system developing
by Wednesday evening with PWATS at or above 1.5 inches.  This could
result in areas of heavy rain and potential flooding Wednesday night
through Thursday.  For now, WPC has highlighted most of our county
warning area with a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall Wednesday
and Thursday.  Models show a cold front moving into the area on
Thursday, which should provide more lift for more widespread heavy
rain.  An upper-level trough axis should push through the region on
Friday and bring additional chances for showers and thunderstorms.

Skies should clear out for next weekend as upper-level ridging will
build in behind the cold front.  The pattern suggests that above-
normal temperatures in the low to mid 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1155 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

Winds will be slightly gusty this afternoon, with gusts around 20
kts possible. Thunderstorms could approach KJCT and KBBD from the
south this afternoon, but they will likely remain too far
south/southeast to impact the airports. Winds will become light
and variable overnight as they start to turn back to the south.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     57  88  68  91 /   0   0   0  10
San Angelo  57  95  68  93 /   0   0   0  10
Junction    59  94  66  93 /   0   0   0   0
Brownwood   57  87  63  88 /   0   0   0   0
Sweetwater  58  90  68  91 /   0   0   0  10
Ozona       58  92  66  90 /   0   0   0  10
Brady       58  88  65  88 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....SK
AVIATION...AP