Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 280858
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
358 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Early this morning, a cold front is located from the northwestern
Panhandle to midway between Amarillo and Lubbock and then east
across southern Oklahoma. Convective activity is occurring along the
frontal boundary in the northwestern Panhandle area and along the
frontal boundary in southern Oklahoma. An outflow boundary is noted
moving into the northern Big Country. The cold front is expected to
sag south through the Big Country and into the northern Heartland
today before becoming stationary tonight. Will continue the slight
chance of showers and thunderstorms along and north of the cold
front with the best chance of precipitation in the northern Big
Country. Highs today will be similar to yesterday with upper 90s to
around the 100 degree mark south of interstate 20. Mid 90s are
expected over the Big Country due to increased cloud cover and some
cool air advection behind the frontal boundary. Morning lows
tomorrow will generally be in the lower 70s.

15

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)

The long-term portion of the forecast remains essentially
unchanged, with slight chance to chance PoPs through next weekend
across much of West Central Texas. Models continue a stalled cold
front over West Central Texas through mid week. Then, models
indicate another weak cold front will push into West Central Texas
on Thursday. The NAM, GFS, and ECMWF are in fairly good agreement
with this potential scenario. With a persistent upper ridge
continuing to the west, this solution at least looks possible. So,
continuing PoPs unchanged from the previous package looks
reasonable for the long-term periods. In addition, cooler
temperatures at 850 mb later this week points to potential
afternoon highs a category or two below seasonal normals,
especially for Friday and next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  95  72  93  72  97 /  20  30  30  20  10
San Angelo 100  73  96  72 100 /  10  10  10  20  10
Junction  99  73  96  71 100 /   5   5  10   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








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