Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 271110
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
610 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2015

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Quiet weather conditions will prevail through the TAF period.
Expect a few high clouds with otherwise mostly sunny skies. A
back-door cold front will move into the area this afternoon
resulting in light and variable winds at KABI/KBBD by mid/late
afternoon. In the meantime, winds will veer to the west at speeds
up to 12 kts.

Johnson

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)

Relatively quiet weather conditions are anticipated today across
West Central TX. Skies will remain mostly clear, aside from some
thin high clouds that will dissipate as they move in from the north.
A shortwave trough moving southeast across the central Plains will
drive a cold front south, with the main push remaining to our east.
We`ll see a weak back-door cold front move into the Big Country and
Heartland, stalling from near a Hamlin-Brownwood line. To the north
and east of this front, winds will be light from the east and
northeast. On the warm side of the front, winds will veer to the
west at 8-12 mph. Insolation will be aided by compressional heating
where west winds develop in the warm sector, warming temps into the
upper 70s and lower 80s. The cool side of the boundary will
generally remain in the mid 70s.

This front is expected to wash out overnight, with southerly winds
resuming areawide. Turbulent mixing via an intensifying low-level
jet will help keep temperatures up overnight. Low temperatures will
generally range from the mid 40s to lower 50s. Again, skies will
remain mostly cloudy with nil rain chances over the next 24 hours.

Johnson

LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)

Warm and dry conditions are expected this weekend with south to
southwesterly winds under mostly clear skies. High on Saturday
will range from the lower 80s along the Interstate 10 corridor to
the upper 80s over the Big Country. Sunday will be even warmer
ahead of a weak cold front that will move into the northern Big
Country late Sunday afternoon. Highs on Sunday will be in the mid
to upper 80s with temperatures approaching 90 degrees in some
locations in the Concho Valley and Big Country. The cold front is
expected to stall over the southern CWA early Monday before
washing out.

A northwest flow aloft over the forecast area this weekend will
begin backing to the southwest on Monday as an upper trough over
the southwestern CONUS drifts eastward over northern Mexico. The
models are fairly consistent in bringing the upper trough over the
forecast area on Tuesday, preceded by a southwest flow aloft. Will
continue a slight chance of thunderstorms over all of West Central
Texas Monday night with the better chance of rainfall over the
area during the day on Tuesday as the upper trough lifts to the
east and out of the area.

Highs on Monday and Tuesday will be in the 70s under partly to
mostly cloudy skies with morning lows remaining in the 50s.
Highs will be back in the 80s on Wednesday and Thursday under
sunny skies.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  78  53  87  59  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  81  49  86  54  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
Junction  78  47  83  51  85 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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