Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 280423
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1123 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017


AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

VFR conditions should continue at all terminals for the next 24
hours. A cold front will move south into West Central Texas late
tonight, and by mid-morning tomorrow winds across all of West
Central Texas will be from the north or northeast. Thunderstorms
are possible along and behind the frontal boundary by early
afternoon at all terminals except KABI and have included PROB30
groups.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 346 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Sunday)

A sharply defined dryline was located along a Haskell to San Angelo
to east of an Ozona line. A very moist airmass/boundary layer was in
place east of the dryline this afternoon, with dewpoints in the
upper 60s to mid 70s. However, a stout mid level cap was in place
and preventing any convection from developing. In addition, a hot
afternoon with temperatures of 102 at San Angelo and 100 at
Ozona. Can not rule out an isolated storm or two late this
afternoon and evening near the dryline, if the cap can be broken.
If storms develop, they will rapidly become severe as extreme
buoyancy and decent effective shear are in place. Will have to
keep and eye on radar trends through this evening. The main
hazards will be large hail and damaging winds.

For Sunday, scattered thunderstorms will be possible across much of
West Central Texas as a cold front moves south across the area. A
few storms may be severe south of Interstate 20. The main hazards
will be large hail and damaging winds. However, the CAM
models(i.e. Texas Tech WRF) is indicating convection mainly
staying south of our area, especially if the front is fast and
out of our area by early afternoon. Much cooler for Sunday with
highs in the lower to mid 80s.

LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through Saturday)

An active and unsettled weather pattern is in store across the
Southern Plains through much of this week, due to a weakening mid
level cap, low level southeast flow, upper level disturbances
moving east across Texas and abundant moisture over our area.
Going with mainly scattered showers and thunderstorms through much
of the forecast period. Also, have likely Pops Sunday night
across the southeast part of the area due to better large scale
ascent and a cold front just south of the area. There will be
period of dry weather across the Big Country Monday and Monday
night. Rainfall amounts are highly uncertain, but average amounts
around 1 inch with locally higher amounts are possible through
Thursday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 100  66  82  61 /  10  10  20  20
San Angelo 102  71  84  64 /  10  20  30  40
Junction  93  74  86  66 /  10  10  40  60
Brownwood  95  71  84  63 /  10  10  30  40
Sweetwater 101  64  81  61 /   5  10  10  10
Ozona      100  71  84  64 /  10  20  30  50

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

99/99/99



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