Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 290405 AAA
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
1105 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.UPDATE...
We have extended the Severe Thunderstorm Watch in time and area
through 1 AM tonight as severe thunderstorms continue to move into
our northern counties. Will allow the southern counties to expire
at this time. Although there are storms just outside our CWA to
our south, they area sub-severe at this time, and having trouble
maintaining strength consistently. Updated text products will be
sent shortly.

Also, please see the 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms continue to affect the area
late tonight. These storms could have an effect on the formation
of low clouds later tonight. For now, will keep the trend of MVFR
CIGs moving into the area generally between 09Z/4AM and 12Z/7AM,
with persistent southeasterly winds outside of variable and gusty
winds near thunderstorms, with conditions become VFR by late
morning or early afternoon. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms
may develop again by late Sunday afternoon or early evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 556 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Isolated thunderstorms have developed across parts of West Central
Texas early this evening. Confidence remains low that any of these
storms will affect the TAF sites, so VCTS groups were continued at
this time. Brief heavy rainfall, hail and strong gusty winds will
be possible with the stronger storms. Stratus will return to all
sites Sunday morning, resulting in MVFR ceilings. VFR ceilings
will return to all sites by late morning/early afternoon Sunday.
Expect generally southeast winds of 5 to 10 knots through the
period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 317 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Sunday)

A weak quasi-stationary front has settled over the extreme northwest
reaches of the CWA, situated roughly from just north of Midland, to
Big Spring, to Haskell, to Wichita Falls. A dryline extends
southwest from this boundary from near Sweetwater to Fort Stockton.
In the warm sector, dewpoints remain in the mid/upper 60s with
surface temps in the mid 80s to near 90 degrees. Fairly steep lapse
rates were observed in the 12z regional raobs, and are supported by
the latest RAP guidance. Meso-analysis indicates MLCAPE values
exceeding 2000 J/kg across the CWA with effective bulk shear values
on the order of 30-35 kts. This is sufficient for organized
convection capable of large hail and damaging winds this afternoon,
but as shear increases toward evening, we`ll see the severe threat
increase. There does remain some convective inhibition, but a look
out the window reveals vertically developing Cu to the east of San
Angelo.

Thunderstorms will be scattered this afternoon, but are expected to
become more widespread this evening as the low-level jet kicks in
and helps to congeal this activity into a larger cluster. The severe
threat will wane by 03z, with convection gradually decreasing after
midnight. Low clouds will be possible overnight, but widespread
convection may disrupt the formation of said cloud cover.
Regardless, we should still experience a low ceiling during the
morning hours as a strato-cu deck develops beneath the cap. By
midday, skies will become partly cloudy with afternoon showers and
thunderstorms possible once again. The greatest chance for seeing
precipitation during the daytime period will be over the western 1/3
of the CWA, closer to the dryline. Temperatures will be at or just
below seasonal norms, ranging from the mid/upper 60s overnight to the
mid 80s on Sunday afternoon.

Johnson

LONG TERM...
(Sunday night Through Saturday)

.Rain chances will continue through a large part of the extended
forecast...

Sunday night, an upper level low across southern California will
slowly move toward Arizona, with West Central Texas in southwest
flow aloft. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop
across West Texas along a dryline during the late
afternoon/evening, then possibly spread across parts of the area
overnight. A few strong to severe storms will be possible, with
large hail, damaging winds and a possible tornado, being the main
threats.

The aforementioned upper level low will continue to slowly move west
through the middle of next week, approaching West Central Texas late
Wednesday into Thursday. Ahead of this feature, intermittent
disturbances will move across the region, with rain chances
continuing through at least the first half of the week. The exact
timing of these upper level disturbances is hard to pinpoint,
although the best rain chances will likely be diurnally driven, from
the late afternoon into the evening hours. The best rain chances at
this time look to be late Tuesday into Wednesday as the upper level
low approaches and better upper level lift overspreads the
region. In addition, a cold front will move through the area,
which may serve as a focus for shower and thunderstorm
development.

A few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible during this
time frame, but these details will become more clear the closer we
get to the early part of next week. Rainfall totals through the
middle of next week will average 1 to 3 inches for most locations,
with isolated higher amounts over 4 inches possible.

Generally below normal temperatures are expected Monday through
Wednesday, due to extensive cloud cover and possible precipitation.
Highs will mainly be in the 80s with overnight lows in the 60s.
The aforementioned cold front will result in much cooler
temperatures on Thursday, with highs mainly in the 70s and overnight
lows dipping into the mid to upper 50s.

Daniels

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  67  83  66  86 /  50  40  50  40
San Angelo  67  86  68  86 /  50  30  40  40
Junction  72  86  69  85 /  50  30  40  40

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$



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