Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 030842

342 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

(Today and Tonight)

Very few changes are needed to the general theme of the short term
forecast. The upper level ridge will move very little with the ridge
axis falling southwest to northeast across our CWA today. This will
keep temperatures hot, and rain chances minimal. High resolution
models again try to generate isolated showers this afternoon and
evening, but with the ridge basically centered on top of the CWA,
this would be unexpected. Temperatures will be very similar to the
past few days.


(Friday through Wednesday)

The upper ridge over the central part of the nation will begin to
shift to the east on Thursday in response to an upper low entering
the Pacific Northwest. By this weekend the upper low will have
moved over the northern Rockies with the upper ridge becoming
positively tilted from Texas to the Great Lakes as a broad upper
trough begins to encompass all of the the western CONUS. However,
the upper high will continue to be centered over Central Texas
concomitant with continued dry weather for the forecast area. A
cold front associated with the upper low will push south into the
Panhandle late this weekend and into the first of next week and is
not expected to enter the northern Big Country until Wednesday. As
the upper high over Central Texas begins to retreat westward, the
flow aloft over West Central Texas will finally begin shifting to
the northwest by mid-week. The best chance of convective activity
should be on Wednesday primarily over the Big Country as upper
disturbances traverse our area in the northwest flow aloft
juxtaposed with the aforementioned cold front. However, the GFS
and ECMWF both carry a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
over the northwest Big Country during the day on Tuesday. Will
leave this slight chance in the forecast with the caveat that the
best chance of precipitation still looks to be on Wednesday over
most of the Big Country.



Abilene  95  72  94  74 /   0   0   5   5
San Angelo  97  71  95  74 /   5   0  10   5
Junction  94  72  93  72 /   5   5  10  10



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