326
FXUS64 KSJT 140548
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1248 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Flood Watch has been extended for the Northern Edwards Plateau,
  Northwest Hill Country and Heartland through 8 PM Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

MCV evident in radar and satellite imagery very near Brady early
this afternoon, and not showing a lot of movement. Main area of
convection has pushed east and south of West Central Texas so far
this afternoon and that trend should continue for a few more
hours. Concern is really whether the air mass can respond fast
enough and bring enough low instability and moisture convergence
back towards that MCV for this evening. Models have struggled with
this setup and the CAMs are just now starting to catch on that the
MCV exists. Latest 16Z HRRR shows convection redeveloping right
along the CWA border from San Saba to Kimble Counties overnight,
and expanding in coverage. Again, given the uncertainty in just
where the MCV and any associated convection ends up, and how well
the models are handling it at this point, have opted to extend the
Flood Watch into tonight for portions of the area from Brownwood
to Brady and then west into Sonora and Ozona. This area saw the
heaviest rainfall tonight and cant take any more rain, so the
potential for flooding is certainly there if even spotty
convection wanders back across it.

The models do show more convection redeveloping during the
afternoon across a little more of the area, including all the way
back near San Angelo, just due to heating and afternoon
destabilization. Have bumped up POPs for some portions of the area
with that in mind.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Not much attention in the long term with everything focused on
the ongoing flooding. Still, appears the upper level trough will
gradually erode as upper level ridging starts to become more
dominant. This is especially true by mid week and into next
weekend. Temperatures will start to climb, although very wet soils
likely to make it a little tougher across the southern and easter
areas. Mid 90s expected across the northern half of the area with
lower 90s farther south.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Isolated/scattered thunderstorms may into the I-10 corridor this
morning and continue into the afternoon. Some storms may produce
IFR visibilities in heavy rainfall. Some patchy MVFR stratus is
also likely, mainly at KJCT, KSOA, KBBD this morning, as
vegetation and soils are wet from recent rainfall. Added prob30 to
to KSJT this afternoon for isolated thundertorms. South winds
generally less than 10 KTS expected, except for gusty winds near
storms.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     72  91  73  92 /  10  20  10  N10
San Angelo  70  87  71  90 /  30  40  10  10
Junction    70  87  71  89 /  20  30  10  10
Brownwood   71  89  72  89 /  10  20  10  10
Sweetwater  72  91  72  93 /  10  20  10  10
Ozona       70  85  71  88 /  30  30  10  10
Brady       70  87  71  87 /  20  30  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through this evening for Brown-Crockett-Kimble-Mason-
McCulloch-Menard-San Saba-Schleicher-Sutton.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...04