Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KSJT 260419
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1119 PM CDT Mon May 25 2015


.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will continue over the northern terminals through
the next 24 hours. VFR ceilings at the southern terminals will
degrade to MVFR before sunrise with KJCT and KBBD MVFR by 09Z and
KSOA MVFR by 11Z. Ceilings at the southern terminals will improve
to VFR by late morning. Southerly winds at all terminals will gust
15-25 knots by mid-morning and subside in the evening.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 607 PM CDT Mon May 25 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will continue at the northern terminals through the
next 24 hours. Stratus will move north over the southern terminals
after midnight lowering ceilings at KJCT to MVFR by 08Z and at
KBBD and KSOA by 09Z. Ceilings at the southern terminals will
return to VFR by mid-morning. Winds will remain generally light
at the southern terminals while gusting to 15-20 knots at the
northern terminals by tomorrow morning.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CDT Mon May 25 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tuesday)

Busy with QLCS convection most of the day so discussion will be
short.

Area of convection has pushed east and southeast and out of
the area this afternoon. Thus, have canceled the Tornado Watch
and Flash Flood Watch early. Should be a relatively quiet evening
and overnight. Weak dryline and a weak shortwave pushes into the
area on Tuesday afternoon. Low level moisture will remain
plentiful and instability will not be a problem, but getting any
convergence on the dryline or enough might be. Area is outlooked in
the SPC day 2 outlook for the risk and not going to argue with
that one today. Have kept the slight chance PoPs in place.

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)

Chance of showers and thunderstorms will continue through much of
the week. Mean upper trough remains to the west, with a series of
shortwaves rotating across the Southern Plains. Given the unstable
air mass and not much in the way of any capping, will be hard to
rule out storms on just about any time period. However, appears
the best chances will be Thursday, Thursday Night, and Friday as
the next strong shortwave comes out across West Central Texas.
Looks to be a potent wave, with widespread convection possible and
the potential for severe weather and flooding once again.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  80  63  90  69  89 /  70  10  20  10  20
San Angelo  85  64  92  69  91 /  50  10  20  10  20
Junction  84  66  91  70  89 /  70  10  20  20  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/99





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