Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 260311
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
911 PM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS INTO NORTHERN UTAH LATER
TONIGHT...THEN SURGE THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH SUNDAY.
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY)...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL
CONTINUE ON A SLIGHTLY NORTH OF EAST TRACK INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES BY EARLY SUNDAY. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT APPEARS
TO BE ALONG THE NARROW BAND OF CLOUDS EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL
NEVADA INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL IDAHO AT MID-EVENING. THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS STILL WELL AHEAD OF THE PARENT TROUGH AND IS NOT
WELL SUPPORTED BY LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION AT THIS POINT.

THE FAVORABLE POSITION OF THE FRONT AND STILL FAIRLY STRONG
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT HAS MAINTAINED STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE THIS EVENING. MOST WINDS HAVE
DROPPED BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AT MID-EVENING...BUT WITH THE
FRONT BECOMING A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED WILL LEAVE THE ADVISORY AS
IS THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

COLD AIR ALOFT TRAILING THE SURFACE FRONT WILL FILTER INTO
NORTHERN UTAH LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. THE ADVECTIVE
COMPONENT TO THE COOLING IS NOT THAT STRONG OUTSIDE OF THE AREAS
NEAR THE IDAHO BORDER. POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL LIKELY STAY NEAR
THE IDAHO AS THE MID-LEVEL COLD POOL GRAZES THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.

SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF UTAH AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST
THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE MID-LEVEL COLD
POOL WILL STRETCH AS FAR SOUTH AS EXTREME NORTHERN UTAH...AND
FUEL THE NECESSARY INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT A PERIOD OF CONVECTIVE
PRECIP SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

MID-LEVEL WARMING BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WILL LIMIT ANY
REMAINING CONVECTION TO FAR NORTHEAST UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
HEADING INTO MONDAY MORNING. ANY LINGERING CONVECTION AFTER MONDAY
MORNING SHOULD WEAKEN FAIRLY QUICKLY AND END DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. COLD TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE EVEN
COLDER MONDAY. WARMER TEMPS WILL RETURN BEGINNING TUESDAY AS A
MILD WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP OVER THE GREAT BASIN

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY)...GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
TOWARDS AN AMPLIFYING PATTERN BEGINNING MID WEEK OF NEXT WEEK...WITH
INTERIOR RIDGING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AS THE NEXT PACIFIC
TROUGH CARVES SOUTH ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. WITH JET WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA BULK OF PACIFIC MOISTURE AND SHORT WAVE ENERGY RIDING THE
MEAN STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN IDAHO AS ITS SOUTHERN
MOST POINT WED...WITH TRENDS TO SHIFT FURTHER NORTH THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. BUILDING HEIGHTS LOCALLY COMBINED WITH INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR BOTH SUBSIDENT WARMING AND
WAA ALLOWING TEMPS TO CLIMB WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS ONCE AGAIN.
DRY AND LIKELY MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE NORM.

AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC TROUGH SHOULD TURN INLAND LATE NEXT
WEEKEND...BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING REMAINS MINIMAL AT BEST.
MAINTAINED CLIMO POPS FOR SATURDAY AS SUCH...THOUGH FORECAST
COULD EASILY REMAIN WARM/DRY TO START OFF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE KSLC
TERMINAL UNTIL THE WEAK SURFACE FRONT ARRIVES AROUND 09Z. TRAILING
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BRIEFLY BE GUSTY...THEN SETTLE DOWN TO AROUND
10 KTS WITHIN AN HOUR OF FRONTAL PASSAGE. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT WITH CEILING GENERALLY ABOVE 12 KFT PRE-FRONTAL AND
BETWEEN 6-8 KFT POST-FRONTAL.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR UTZ003-005-015-016.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...
AVIATION...

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



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