Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 281633
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
933 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE TODAY AND PERSIST
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO
NORTHERN UTAH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM
POSSIBLE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL RIDGE ENCOMPASSES
MUCH OF THE GREAT BASIN/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THIS MORNING...WITH THE
RIDGE AXIS CENTERED ROUGHLY ALONG THE UT/NV BORDER. EXTENSIVE MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS NORTHERN UT...AND HAVE
UPDATED THE GOING FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. BY THIS AFTERNOON
THIS CLOUD COVER IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO THIN
CONSIDERABLY...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE
60S ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT. MEANWHILE FURTHER SOUTH WHERE SKIES
REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS...BY AS MUCH AS 20 DEGREES AROUND CEDAR CITY.

THIS RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO SLIDE EAST TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR A
VERY MILD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY. A
SHALLOW COLD FRONT IS STILL FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHWARD INTO
NORTHERN UT LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...LIKELY
STALLING JUST SOUTH OF I-80. MOISTURE OVERRUNNING THIS STALLED
BOUNDARY WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCE FOR VALLEY RAIN/MOUNTAIN SNOW
ACROSS NORTHERN UT SUNDAY.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH COUPLED WITH A PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IS
STILL FORECAST TO SPREAD INLAND DURING THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL.
THE GFS HAS REMAINED FAIRLY CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN WITH THIS
OVERALL IDEA...WITH SOME VARIATION IN TIMING...AND THE 12Z GFS
REMAINS CONSISTENT. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF HAS WAVERED FROM RUN TO
RUN ON THE OVERALL PATTERN EVOLUTION. AS SUCH CONFIDENCE IN THE
GFS SOLUTION CONTINUES TO TREND UPWARD.

&&

.AVIATION...AT THE SLC TERMINAL...OPERATIONAL WEATHER CONCERNS ARE
MINIMAL. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
SOME GUSTY WINDS THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THERE
IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT WINDS WILL BE WEAKER THAN FORECAST.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SEAMAN/STRUTHWOLF

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)


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