Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS65 KSLC 081049
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
349 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (UNTIL 00Z FRIDAY)...THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY
CENTER ACROSS THE WEST COAST STATES WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE GREAT
BASIN TUESDAY. THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER
THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

CONTINUED WARMING ALOFT THROUGH MIDWEEK WILL SERVE TO FURTHER
STRENGTHEN VALLEY INVERSIONS. POOR MIXING UNDERNEATH THE
INVERSIONS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING URBAN HAZE DURING THE WEEK.
EXPANDING AREAS OF FOG ARE ALSO EXPECTED...WITH POCKETS OF DENSE
FOG DEVELOPING NEAR THE GSL...THE CACHE VALLEY AND POSSIBLE IN THE
WASATCH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

TEMPERATURE TRENDS IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SNOW COVERED
VALLEYS WILL LIKELY REMAIN STATIC OR EVEN LOWER A BIT IF FOG
DEVELOPS DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE EXTREME SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHWEST VALLEYS TEND TO RESPONSE POSITIVELY TO NEAR 700MB
WARMING. WILL INCLUDE A MORE PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND IN THOSE
AREAS THROUGH MIDWEEK.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z FRIDAY)...GLOBAL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
RIDGE AXIS SMACK OVERHEAD FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AFTER THIS POINT THE
MODELS DIVERGE AS THE GFS SPLITS THE ELONGATED TROUGH OFF THE WEST
COAST LEAVING A CIRCULATION AT ITS SOUTHERN END WELL WEST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA AS THE MUCH WEAKENED NORTHERN PORTION OF TROUGH PROGRESSES
THROUGH THE CWA. WHILE THE EC ALSO SPLITS THE INCOMING TROUGH IT
DOES MAINTAIN A STRONGER NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE TROUGH WHICH MOVES
ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SOME 700MB COLD ADVECTION.
THE EC DOES NOT PRODUCE ANY QPF BUT LEFT TOKEN POPS IN ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AS THERE COULD BE SOME SHALLOW INSTABILITY SHOWERS WITH
THE COLD FRONT.

WITH THE 700MB TEMPS COOLING TO BETWEEN -6 TO -8 DEGREES C THIS
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO BREAK UP THE INVERSION AND CLEAN OUT THE GUNK
ACROSS THE WASATCH FRONT AND CACHE VALLEYS LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
THIS IMPROVEMENT WILL ONLY BE TEMPORARY AS THE RIDGE REBUILDS IN
THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH END MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE SLC
TERMINAL THROUGH THIS MORNING. THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE THAT
THE VSBY REMAINS HIGH END MVFR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON RATHER THAN
IMPROVING TO 6SM OR GREATER. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST ABOUT 18Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONGER
LONG TERM/AVIATION...STRUTHWOLF

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.