425
FXUS65 KSLC 141004
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
404 AM MDT Mon Jul 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Hot and mostly dry conditions continue this week,
increasing moisture bringing an increasing threat of high based
showers and storms by midweek.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z/6AM Wednesday)...High pressure remains
over the Great Basin this morning, resulting in mostly clear skies
over Utah and southwest Wyoming. Under the influence of the ridge,
temperatures will average 5-10F above seasonal normals, similar to
yesterday. Southwest Utah will see some modest warming, pushing
highs in lower Washington county to around 110F with limited
overnight recovery. Because of this, an Extreme Heat Warning is in
effect for that portions of the area this afternoon and this
evening.

As a trough moves across the Pacific Northwest today and tomorrow
and another weak tough approaches the California coast, the flow
aloft will develop a more southerly direction, allowing some high
based moisture to start to spread northward. This will result in
the development of a few showers over the higher terrain over
southern Utah, with gusty winds and dry lightning the primary
threats with any storms that develop. By Tuesday, this high based
moisture will be a bit more plentiful, with dynamics becoming more
favorable with the approaching California trough providing some
ejecting shortwave energy and the Pacific Northwest trough
providing some more favorable jet support. Thus, coverage of
showers and thunderstorms, still primarily high based, will be a
bit higher, resulting in a higher threat of gusty microburst winds
across the area. The increasing southerly flow will bring some
increased fire danger to southern Utah. See the fire weather
section of the AFD for more details.

.LONG TERM (After 12Z/6AM Wednesday)...Ridging aloft remains over
the area, although we should see some "relief" from the hot
temperatures of Tuesday, if you can really call it that. Following
the passage of an upper trough to our north, "cooler" air will
filter into the region bringing temperatures to just below or normal
for this time of year. Temperatures for the majority of our valleys
will generally range from the lower 90s to mid 90s while lower
Washington county will see temperatures in the low 100s.

Modest moisture return is expected to persist through the long term
period as an upper low develops and meanders over the Baja Peninsula
and southern CA. This will result in PWATs generally ranging from
around 0.5-0.7" across the majority of UT and southwest WY for the
majority of the long term forecast. Additionally, both the GFS and
EURO are hinting at a chance for PWATs ranging from 1-1.2" across
southern UT Thursday-Saturday. While this remains far out in time,
it does raise some concern for locally heavy rainfall which could
result in flash flooding. Specifics are somewhat difficult to iron
out at this time, though it bears watching.

&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...VFR conditions will persist at the KSLC terminal
through the TAF period. Typical diurnal wind shifts are expected to
northwesterly around 17z and southeasterlies once again around 04-
05z.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions are expected to
persist through the TAF period. Generally diurnal winds will take
hold as overall flow remains light across UT and southwest WY. There
is a chance for isolated showers and thunderstorms near KCDC and
KBCE, though probabilities appear too low at this time to include in
the TAF.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Hot and generally dry high pressure will remain the
primary influence on the weather over the next few days. However,
southerly flow will start to draw mid-level moisture into the area
from the south, bringing isolated high based afternoon
thunderstorms, with gusty winds and dry lightning possible with
any storms that develop. Winds will increase further on Tuesday,
combining with the dry airmass to potentially produce critical
fire weather conditions over portions of southern Utah. Some
higher based moisture will continue to move in Tuesday into
Wednesday, bringing a gradually increasing threat of high based
showers and thunderstorms. Behind a weak cold front impacting the
area later Wednesday, some drier air may move in, but deeper
moisture is expected to return by the upcoming weekend.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for UTZ495>498.

     Extreme Heat Warning from noon today to 10 PM MDT this evening
     for UTZ123-124.

WY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...Traphagan
LONG TERM/AVIATION...Worster

For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity