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000
FXUS62 KTAE 050903
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
403 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

.Near Term [Through Today]...

Arctic front will cross the forecast area from northwest to
southeast during the day today. Strong low-level cold air
advection will lead to temperatures falling during the day in the
wake of the front. In the northwest portion of the area,
temperatures will start out near 70s degrees this morning, before
falling into the upper 40s and lower 50s by late this afternoon.
Farther south and east, temperatures will reach the mid to upper
70s ahead of the front, before cooling off as the front passes.

Rain showers will spread across the area with the frontal passage
today as southwesterly flow overruns the shallow arctic air mass.
Overall, expect rainfall totals to be light outside of a few
heavier showers over the western portion of the area this morning.


.Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]...

Cold air advection will be underway with the surface cold front
off to the southeast by the this evening. Although drier air will
quickly advect into the area in the mid-upper levels, model
forecast soundings suggest a saturated layer will be maintained
just below the frontal inversion. This would likely end up as a
post-frontal stratus layer that lingers into much of Friday.
Therefore, the forecast for Friday is a cool day with highs
ranging from the upper 40s in south-central Georgia to the mid-50s
in the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend. Warmer weather is likely by
Saturday with clearing skies. Although the moist layer will be
relatively shallow, a few light rain showers or sprinkles will be
possible from tonight into Friday until the stratus clears out.


.Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...

Although surface high pressure over the Ohio Valley will maintain
east to northeast flow across our area, return flow aloft from
Saturday Night into Sunday should bring a renewed chance for rain
that will persist into early next week. Models still have some
differences in timing of different rounds of rain, so some rain
chances are indicated through the extended forecast. With a
corresponding increase in cloud cover, highs through much of the
extended should be below normal with lows near normal.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 06Z Friday] Low clouds and limited visibility will impact
terminals today ahead of the approaching cold front. Stronger
winds this morning will mean more of a low CIGS threat versus a fog
threat. However, CIGS will remain well into IFR territory until
the front passes. Expect the wind shift around 16Z for KDHN, 20Z
for KABY and KECP, 22Z for KVLD and KTLH.

&&

.Marine...

Many of the coastal observations indicate visibilities above 1
mile, and satellite shows most of the stratus or fog over land
areas now. Although some webcams near Panama City do show fog in
some spots, the areas of dense fog don`t appear widespread enough
to continue the advisory. However, wording about morning fog in
nearshore areas was maintained in the CWF. A Small Craft Advisory
was issued for the western legs of the waters for 20-25kt winds
behind the cold front. SCEC level winds are expected east of
there. At least SCEC level winds should linger into early
Saturday.

&&

.Fire Weather...

The current very warm and moist air mass will be replaced by a
cooler air mass for Friday in the wake of a strong cold front.
Dewpoints are not expected to be terribly low with the incoming
air mass, keeping minimum humidity values well above Red Flag
levels. No fire weather concerns are expected through Friday.

&&

.Hydrology...

All area rivers are now below flood stage, although several are
still in action or bank full stage. Rainfall totals will not be
high enough to cause a significant rise on rivers.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   76  50  54  38  67 /  60  20  30  10  10
Panama City   68  44  55  41  62 /  60  20  20  10  10
Dothan        69  38  52  35  64 /  70  20  10  10  10
Albany        73  42  49  34  64 /  70  30  20  10  10
Valdosta      77  46  50  37  66 /  50  50  30  10  10
Cross City    77  55  56  43  67 /  20  20  30  20  10
Apalachicola  71  48  56  44  63 /  60  20  30  10  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 AM EST Friday
     for Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-
     Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...CAMP
HYDROLOGY...WESTON