Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 260920
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
420 AM EST THU NOV 26 2015
.Near Term [Through Today]...
Upper ridging continues to build into the CWA today. Although the
center of the surface ridge has shifted further into the Atlantic
off the northeast coast, high pressure continues to stretch down the
east coast and into the CWA. With the easterly low-level flow still
in place, some lower clouds have pushed into the eastern part of the
CWA. While scattered low clouds will be possible this morning, they
will lift into the afternoon. While the ECMWF is hinting at showers
across the western marine areas this morning, other models are much
drier. Given this and radar trends, have continued with a dry
forecast for today.
High temperatures today will be in the 70s with maximum
temperatures above normal.
.Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]...
Upper level ridging will remain in place over the northern Gulf
coast with lower level high pressure over the southeast and mid-
Atlantic seaboard. Winds will stay generally east-northeasterly
through the period and temperatures will warm to the mid-upper 70s
during the day under partly cloudy skies, dipping into the mid-upper
.Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...
An upper level +PV anomaly will swing from the southwestern states
northeastward toward the Great Lakes early next week, developing a
surface cold front out ahead of it. Since most of the energy driving
this system will be well to our north, chances for rain will remain
low, around 20%, early in the week. Highs will be in the low-mid 70s
through Monday. Colder temperatures will start to make their way
into the area again on Tuesday, with lows dipping into the 60s in
our northwestern zones. Lows will stay mostly in the 50s.
[Through 06Z Friday] Scattered IFR to low MVFR cigs are situated
across parts of the eastern half of the area. For areas that do
see the lower clouds, conditions will improve during the morning.
While predominately SCT clouds are expected this afternoon, a
brief period of BKN is possible, but heights will be 4-5k feet.
Wind gusts to 18kts are possible again late this morning into the
A tightened pressure gradient will remain in place through Friday
morning, keeping easterly winds around 20 knots. Winds will lower to
cautionary levels Friday, falling below headline criteria Saturday.
Winds will remain east-northeasterly through the period.
RH values are expected to remain above 50 percent today and
tomorrow and thus there are no fire weather concerns at this
The Choctawhatchee River at Bruce has crested and will start to
fall over the next few days. However, the river will remain above
action stage through at least the end of the month.
With no significant rains anticipated for the next several days,
there are no flood concerns.
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 76 59 78 58 77 / 0 0 0 0 0
Panama City 75 60 74 59 74 / 0 0 0 0 0
Dothan 72 55 73 54 74 / 0 0 0 0 0
Albany 73 55 74 52 74 / 0 0 0 0 0
Valdosta 75 58 76 56 76 / 10 0 0 0 0
Cross City 79 60 78 59 78 / 0 10 0 0 0
Apalachicola 76 61 75 59 74 / 0 0 0 0 0
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning FOR Apalachee
Bay or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee
River Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to
Keaton Beach out 20 NM.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Friday FOR Coastal Waters
From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-
Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60
NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.