Area Forecast Discussion
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325
FXUS62 KTAE 291401
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1001 AM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

The only notable change made to today`s forecast is regarding
precipitation chances in our western inland zones. The ECAM and
other hi-res models are showing better chances of showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon/early evening, and with PWAT values
expected to rise to around 2.0-2.1" across the FL Panhandle and
southeast AL as the sea breeze moves inland, decided to raise
PoPs to the 40-60% range in these areas. Mid-level dry air looks
likely to persist across our eastern areas, so slight chance PoPs
were left in place there. A hot day remains on track, with highs
in the mid-upper 90s expected across central and eastern parts of
our area.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [231 AM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Sunday]...

Deep layer ridging will continue to be the main synoptic feature
across the area. By late on Sunday, the ridge is expected to start
to weaken a little and deep layer moisture will be gradually
increasing. Convective coverage is expected to be slightly higher
on Sunday as a result compared to Saturday. High temperatures are
expected to be generally in the mid 90s with peak heat index
values averaging near 105 across the area. Lows will be in the mid
70s inland, upper 70s to near 80 along the coast.


.LONG TERM [Sunday Night Through Friday]...

The long term period will see subtropical ridging flatten as a
broad trough builds over the eastern CONUS. Deep layer moisture
will gradually increase across the area with PWAT values returning
to near or just above 2 inches. This is expected to result in a
return to increased convective coverage compared to what we`ve
seen recently with PoPs in the 30-50% range each day. High
temperatures will generally range in the mid 90s with heat index
values 100-105 in the afternoon. Overnight lows will generally be
in the mid 70s.


.AVIATION...

[Through 06z Saturday] VFR conditions expected to prevail through
the forecast period. Slight chance for thunderstorms to affect
terminals during the afternoon, with highest chances at KECP and
KDHN.


.MARINE...

Winds will remain generally light with seas of 2 feet or less
through the period as high pressure dominates the overall weather
pattern.


.FIRE WEATHER...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days. Rain chances will be lower than usual over the next
couple of days.


.HYDROLOGY...

There are no widespread flooding concerns for the next several
days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   97  75  97  76  96 /  20  10  30  20  40
Panama City   91  80  89  79  89 /  30  10  30  20  30
Dothan        94  74  94  74  94 /  50  10  30  20  40
Albany        96  74  97  75  96 /  30  10  30  20  40
Valdosta      97  73  97  73  96 /  20  10  30  20  40
Cross City    96  75  95  75  95 /  20  10  30  20  40
Apalachicola  91  78  92  78  91 /  20  10  30  20  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Lahr
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION...Camp
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...Camp
HYDROLOGY...DVD



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