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FXUS62 KTAE 310130
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
930 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

The large scale pattern remain highly amplified with ridging over
Wrn 1/3rd and troughing over Ern 2/3rd becoming increasingly broad
from N-S. At surface, cold front across S/Cntrl Gulf of Mex Newd to
meso-low near JAX. N of front, strong high pressure NWD to across
local region. Locally this translates to NLY flow sfc-H7 then WLY
flow above. PWATS generally a bone dry 0.5 inches.A shower or two
is possible across extreme ERN GA counties closest to meso low as
seen on NM4 but not other HI RES guidance. Chances too low for
inclusion in GRIDS.

With dry air and light to calm winds, low temperatures will once
again be below average (generally in the mid 60s, except around 70 at
the beaches and urban areas). Some sites will again approach record
low for July 31st. Some sites include:

    SITE        FORECAST LOW     RECORD LOW
Tallahassee AP     66             63   1886
Apalachicola       69             69   1984
Cross City         66             69   1954

The only caveat is some high cirrus streaming Ewd from a shortwave
that will reach the Lwr Ms Valley by sunrise and possibly temper
mins across NW portions of our CWA.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 00z Friday] After a few very dry days, we will begin to see
an influx of low level moisture and possibly isolated showers across
the Valdosta region on Thursday. A cig may develop around 5kft in
the afternoon at VLD, ABY and TLH. Otherwise, unrestricted
vis/unlimited cigs through the period.

&&

.Prev Discussion [135 PM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Friday]...

A gradual moistening trend in the low-mid troposphere is expected
to end the work week, with 1000-700mb flow shifting from the
current northwesterly direction to southerly or southeasterly by
Thursday. PWATs should climb closer to normal levels by Friday,
although they should remain below normal for another day
(Thursday). This will set up another day of relatively dry weather
tomorrow. There are some indications on model guidance that a few
showers and storms could develop in the mid-late afternoon
Thursday in our south-central Georgia counties with a surface
pressure trough and convergence zone. A small PoP around 15% has
been added for this possibility. Scattered storms will be possible
over the entire area on Friday as greater low-mid level moisture
arrives. Highs should be in the low-mid 90s each day with lows
around 70 each night.


.Long Term [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...

The long term pattern will feature a nearly stationary mid-upper
level longwave trough axis extending from the Great Lakes to the
central Gulf coast (in other words, just west of our area). This
will set up a stretch of several days from the weekend into early
next week with large scale forcing for ascent and PWATs around 2"
(slightly above normal). Just considering those factors, we would
expect days with relatively high convective coverage. However, the
low-mid level flow will be out of the south or southeast, which
also tends to favor a rainy pattern. Therefore, PoPs for Sunday to
Tuesday have been increased into the "likely" range (~60%) with
slightly cooler high temperatures in the upper 80s to around 90.


.Marine...

Winds over the eastern half of the coastal waters could approach
SCEC levels later tonight, but should fall just short. Otherwise,
a weak surface pressure pattern will likely keep winds light and
seas 2 feet or less for the foreseeable future.


.Fire Weather...

Unusually dry conditions (with low RH and rain chances) will
continue into Thursday, but red flag conditions are not
expected. A much wetter period is expected this weekend.


.Hydrology...

All area rivers are below bank full stage, with some even in low
flow stage. A cool, dry airmass is currently in place over the
southeast, so there are no significant chances of rain until
Saturday. Rainfall next week will be near our seasonal average,
so no significant rises are anticipated through the next week.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   66  94  70  93  71 /   0   0  10  30  20
Panama City   70  90  74  89  74 /   0   0  10  30  20
Dothan        65  92  70  91  71 /   0   0  10  40  20
Albany        68  93  71  91  72 /   0  10  10  40  20
Valdosta      68  96  70  95  71 /   0  10  10  40  20
Cross City    66  94  69  92  71 /   0  10  10  30  20
Apalachicola  69  89  73  88  74 /   0   0  10  20  20

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BLOCK
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...BLOCK
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER
HYDROLOGY...MOORE






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