


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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145 FXUS62 KTAE 161829 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 229 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .NEAR TERM... (Through Thursday) Issued at 229 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 The tropical low known as Invest AL93 is moving west this afternoon just offshore the Emerald Coast. It will not develop into a tropical depression before getting well west of our forecast area, if at all. Nonetheless, we will be on its eastern flank through Thursday. So regardless of development, we will be in deep southerly flow, and the air mass will remain very moist. PW values of 2+ inches will be common. Quite a few showers and thunderstorms are dotting the region this afternoon, and most places are getting at least a few passing showers this afternoon. With tropical rain processes in play and respectable moisture transport, rainfall rates can be impressive, even in lower-topped convective cells. Where you get higher-topped convection, torrential rainfall rates can be expected. If cells start to line up in more solid confluent or curved bands, then flooding would become a concern. So look for ongoing convection to fade quickly late this afternoon and early this evening, as convection works over the inland air mass. Convection will reignite late tonight and on Thursday morning over the bathwater-warm Gulf waters. Quick southerly flow will push convection onshore and into coastal communities well before sunrise. Convection will start to spread further inland as soon as we pass sunrise, spreading north of the FL state line by late morning. Over the next 24-30 hours, 1 to 3 inches of rain will be common, with the I-75 corridor in Georgia being the driest. If convection trains onto the coast, then expect a quick 4 to 6 inches of rain somewhere in our FL counties. These higher amounts would bring isolated flash flooding. Lesser amounts could still bring less serious nuisance flooding and ponding on roadways. && .SHORT TERM... (Thursday night through Friday night) Issued at 229 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 The area of low pressure over the Gulf will have moved westward out of our waters and an upper level ridge will be building to our east. The Bermuda high, also to our east, will continue with southerly flow for the short term. During the day Friday, showers and thunderstorms will likely develop in the afternoon hours along the sea breeze. PWATs will be around 2 inches, so heavy downpours will be possible with any storms. PoPs for Friday range from 60-80 percent, with highest chances along and south of I-10. Temperatures on Friday will be subdued from the rain and clouds, with highs in the mid-90s and heat indices should remain below advisory criteria. Overnight lows will be in the mid-70s. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 229 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 High pressure will continue to build over the weekend into the start of next week. Temperatures will be gradually increasing while PoPs values will gradually decrease. However, PoPs will become more diurnally driven with the afternoon sea breeze. Warming temperatures will bring back heat advisories for this weekend through next week, but we will be monitoring based on how much mixing is expected during the afternoon. Temperatures will be in the upper 90s for the highs, and mid-70s for the overnight lows. PoPs this weekend range from 30-50 percent, then increase to around 50-70 percent for the start of the work week as PWATs increase with added tropical moisture moving in from the East Coast. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 229 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Deep layer southerly flow will prevail for the next 24 hours, to the east of a low that will be moving toward the north-central Gulf. This will keep the air mass very moist. Quite a few showers and thunderstorms are spotting the region this afternoon. They should diminish late this afternoon and evening. Storms will rebuild over the Gulf waters tonight, spreading onto the coast before sunrise, then spreading inland during the course of the morning. So the mention of thunder in the TAFs is fashioned after these trends, with TEMPO groups indicating highest confidence periods for thunder. && .MARINE... Issued at 229 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Southerly breezes will increase over the waters tonight, becoming fresh on Thursday morning as we get squeezed between departing low pressure to our west and high pressure east of Florida. The summertime Bermuda ridge axis will expand westward on Friday and Saturday across the Florida Peninsula and into the eastern Gulf, persisting through Monday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 229 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 A seasonably moist and unstable air mass will continue for the foreseeable future. Areas of high dispersion are expected on Thursday afternoon due to enhanced southerly transport winds. A warming trend will get underway on Friday, with much above normal temperatures starting Saturday. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 229 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Isolated flash flooding will be a concern through Friday, mainly over our FL counties. Over the next 24-30 hours, 1 to 3 inches of rain will be common, with the I-75 corridor in Georgia being the driest. If convection trains onto the coast, then expect a quick 4 to 6 inches of rain somewhere in our FL counties. These higher amounts would bring isolated flash flooding. Lesser amounts could still bring less serious nuisance flooding and ponding on roadways. Thunderstorm coverage will decrease over the weekend, then build during the first half of next week. Most any summer thunderstorm is capable of intense rainfall rates that can lead to short-lived nuisance flooding. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 75 91 76 93 / 30 50 10 80 Panama City 78 89 79 91 / 70 80 40 70 Dothan 75 91 74 95 / 20 60 0 60 Albany 74 94 74 96 / 10 40 0 60 Valdosta 75 95 75 96 / 10 40 10 60 Cross City 73 93 74 93 / 30 60 10 60 Apalachicola 79 87 80 89 / 70 80 30 70 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk from late tonight through late Thursday night for FLZ108. High Rip Current Risk from 7 PM CDT this evening through late Thursday night for FLZ112. High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for FLZ114-115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Haner SHORT TERM...Montgomery LONG TERM....Montgomery AVIATION...Haner MARINE...Haner FIRE WEATHER...Haner HYDROLOGY...Haner