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000
FXUS62 KTAE 100133
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
833 PM EST Mon Dec 9 2013

.NEAR TERM [Rest of Tonight]...
A large upper trough resides over the Great Plains region this Mon
eve, and will progress eastward through the Midwest overnight.  To the
southeast of this feature, a surface front stretches from the
northwest Gulf of Mexico through western portions of our CWA, and
northward through the Carolinas.  Ahead of this feature, moist
southerly flow remains in place across much of our region, leading
to continued above average temperatures along with chances of
showers and some patchy fog through the rest of the period.

Just ahead of the cold front, a narrow, nearly stationary band of showers
currently stretches along a line approximately from Panama City to
Albany, and will likely persist through at least 11 pm EST. Apart
from this feature, the main focus for the overnight period will be
chances of fog.  Due to continued warm, moist southerly flow over
cooler Gulf of Mexico waters, patchy fog is possible overnight over
most inland locations.  According to latest hi-res guidance, fog is
most likely during the early morning hours in our southeastern
counties.  Low temperatures will remain mild tonight across our
region, ranging from the upper 50s behind the front in our
westernmost counties to mid-60s for most other locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...
The cold front will begin to move faster toward the region on
Tuesday as the main upper level impulse moves through the Central
Plains. As the cold front nears and some mid/upper level dynamics
aide in an increase in forcing, expect scattered to numerous
showers and even some thunderstorms to develop across the area
late on Tuesday morning and into the afternoon hours. Local CAM
guidance continues to indicate the potential for decent convective
coverage, especially in Southern Georgia and into the Florida Big
Bend where some weak heating is possible Tuesday morning. Based on
the latest CAM guidance, will be indicating pops in the 60 to 70
percent range on Tuesday. Rain chances will drop off sharply though
for western areas after the passage of the cold front Tuesday
afternoon.

Cooler (but really more seasonable) and drier air will return
behind the front starting Tuesday night and throughout the
remainder of the short term period. MOS guidance, particularly the
GFS-based MAV guidance, continues to have some issues with how
cold it will get behind cold fronts this season. As has often been
the pattern, the area of high pressure behind the front remains
well to the north of the region keeping the calm winds and core of
the coldest air over the Tennessee Valley. That looks to be the
same here. As a result, have trended the forecast much warmer
overnight than the comparatively cooler MAV values. Nevertheless,
it will be much cooler (as much as 20 degrees cooler in some
spots) than it has been the last few days for overnight lows.

&&

.LONG TERM [Thursday through Monday]...
The long term period begins with a reinforcing shot of drier air
on Thursday in a relatively fast pattern across the CONUS. The
next storm system to affect the region will already be pulling out
of the Rockies on Friday and rapidly developing across the Mid
South by Friday night. Both the GFS and Euro have moved closer to
the same solution with a frontal passage through the region on
Saturday night. By Sunday afternoon, drier and cooler conditions
return. Though temperatures will drop back to slightly below
normal values, significantly colder air does not appear likely
behind this system.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 00 UTC Wednesday]...
A band of showers currently stretches from a line just east of ECP
to just southeast of ABY, and should remain nearly stationary
through at least 03Z.  ABY could experience some light rain in the next
couple hours, but otherwise the main threat through the rest of the
overnight and early morning hours will be IFR/LIFR ceilings and fog.
They will be most likely at VLD and TLH 06z-12z. As a cold front
continues to move southeastward through our region, showers are
possible at TLH and VLD Tuesday morning and early afternoon. Low
clouds will be slow to erode over most locations thru Tues,
with IFR/MVFR ceilings persisting for much of the remainder of the
period.

&&

.MARINE...
Southerly flow will quickly shift to westerly and then northwesterly
on Tuesday as a cold front moves across the marine area. Advisory
level winds are possible late Tuesday afternoon behind the cold
front. A period of strong offshore winds can be expected through
at least Friday when winds will diminish and shift to an onshore
direction ahead of the next storm system.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Despite the cold front passage on Tuesday, Red Flag conditions are
unlikely.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Total rainfall amounts through Friday will not be enough to have a
significant impact on area river stages.

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   65  70  40  66  45 / 40  70  10   0   0
Panama City   65  67  43  63  46 / 50  70   0   0   0
Dothan        60  60  35  63  39 / 40  60   0   0   0
Albany        64  67  35  63  39 / 50  70   0   0   0
Valdosta      64  72  40  64  43 / 40  70  10   0   0
Cross City    63  75  47  68  50 / 10  60  10   0   0
Apalachicola  67  70  46  64  48 / 40  60  10   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Block/Lahr
SHORT TERM...Godsey
LONG TERM...Godsey
AVIATION...Block/Lahr
MARINE...Block/Lahr
FIRE WEATHER...Fournier
HYDROLOGY...Weston