Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 241553
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1153 AM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

The upper low will continue to meander westward today toward
Mississippi, meanwhile low level ridging will remain in place over
the eastern CONUS, with weak low level convergence over the
coastal waters. The best combination of moisture, forcing, and
instability today is over the northern waters and along the
Panhandle coastline. With mid- level lapse rates around 6.5 C/km,
there`s enough instability in place for a few storms to be able to
produce marginally severe hail or downbursts of winds, despite
low shear. Highs will be in the mid to upper 80s.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [623 AM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Tuesday]...

A semi-cutoff upper level low/trough will stall over Alabama and
the Florida Panhandle tonight through Monday morning, and then
gradually drift eastward over our area through Tuesday. Hurricane
Maria will remain well offshore of the Atlantic coast as it moves
northward east of this feature, and will bring no impacts to our
area. On Monday afternoon and early evening, forcing from the
upper low/trough combined with decent deep layer moisture across
our western areas (PWAT values over 1.5") and SBCAPE up to
1000-1500 J/kg during peak heating hours will result in scattered
showers and thunderstorms across the FL Panhandle and parts of SE
Alabama. Elsewhere, mid- level dry air will continue to advect
into our area under light northeasterly/northerly flow, which will
likely lead to dry conditions throughout this period. Expect high
temperatures near 90 inland each day, with mid-upper 80s along
the Gulf Coast.


.LONG TERM [Tuesday Night Through Sunday]...

The upper low mentioned in the short term discussion will
gradually drift south of our area over the FL Peninsula on
Wednesday and Thursday, and depending on which model verifies it
should be located over the FL Peninsula or eastern Gulf of Mexico.
Either way, dry air will continue to filter into our area under
northwesterly flow and as a result dry conditions will prevail.
From Friday through Sunday, this upper low should gradually be
absorbed into a larger scale trough as it moves into the eastern
CONUS. As this occurs, a cold front will move southeastward into
our area, although latest models suggest this feature could stall
out near or just southeast of our area during the weekend.
Therefore, slight chances of showers/storms were maintained from
Friday through the weekend across most of our area, as models are
suggesting that enough moisture and instability could remain
present throughout this time for at least isolated showers and
thunderstorms. Left our northern areas dry on Saturday as driest
air should move into SE Alabama and parts of SW Georgia.

Hot conditions will prevail from Wednesday through Friday with
inland highs generally in the lower 90s, with a slight cooldown in
the wake of the front during the weekend with forecast highs in
the mid 80s. Lows will remain in the upper 60s and lower 70s ahead
of the front, possibly dropping to lower-mid 60s during the
weekend as a slightly cooler airmass moves into our area.


.AVIATION [Through 12Z Monday]...

Isolated convection is possible at the ECP aerodrome this
afternoon. Otherwise, VFR and dry conds expected this period with
light northeast winds.


.MARINE...

Easterly winds from 10 to 15 knots will prevail today and tonight,
with seas from 2 to 3 feet today dropping to 2 feet or less during
the next few days. Winds will remain light to moderate throughout
the week, generally around 10 to 15 knots or less.


.FIRE WEATHER...

Red flag conditions are not expected for the next several days.


.HYDROLOGY...

A few showers and thunderstorms are possible today and Monday
from north Florida into SE Alabama, but any heavy rain will be
isolated and very brief. Generally dry conditions are expected
during the middle of the week. Therefore, no flooding is
anticipated through the next several days.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   87  70  90  69  91 /  20  20  10  10  10
Panama City   85  72  86  72  88 /  40  30  30  20  10
Dothan        87  68  89  67  90 /  20  10  10  10  10
Albany        88  68  90  66  90 /  10  10  10  10  10
Valdosta      86  67  90  66  90 /  10  10  10  10  10
Cross City    88  69  91  68  90 /  20  10  10  10  10
Apalachicola  85  73  86  71  87 /  40  30  20  20  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Moore
SHORT TERM...Lahr
LONG TERM...Lahr
AVIATION...Scholl
MARINE...Lahr
FIRE WEATHER...Scholl
HYDROLOGY...Lahr


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