Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KTAE 280050
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
850 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...

AFTERNOON CONVECTION DYING OUT WITH THE SUNSET. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLED INTO NORTHERN GEORGIA WILL MAKE FOR A QUIET
THURSDAY MORNING. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MASS...WITH MID 60 DEW
POINTS...MOVING IN FROM THE EAST SHOULD KEEP REGIONAL DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS JUST HIGH ENOUGH TO INHIBIT ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG
DEVELOPMENT. A NEAR CALM WIND...ALONG WITH CLEARING SKIES...WILL
ALLOW SOME PATCHY SHALLOW INLAND FOG TO FORM JUST BEFORE SUNRISE.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY]...

VFR. EARLY EVENING CIRRUS LEFT OVER FROM TODAY`S CONVECTION WILL
BREAK UP THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A VARIABLE TO LIGHT
EASTERLY WIND ALLOWING DRIER EASTERLY AIR TO MOVE IN SHOULD
PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT...NOTHING MORE THAN
SHORT-LIVED SHALLOW PATCHY FOG AROUND SUNRISE. UPPER RIDGING IN
TANDEM WITH THE LOWER LEVEL DRY AIR WILL LIKELY SUPPRESS AREAWIDE
THURSDAY STORM ACTIVITY. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
STORM ALONG THE BREEZE BUT CONFIDENCE ON LOCATION/TIMING IS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE LATTER PERIOD OF THIS TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [350 PM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT]...

THE WEAK MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER OUR FORECAST AREA WILL FILL,
AS A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS ADVECTS INTO OUR REGION FROM THE EAST.
THIS DRIER AIR WILL SUPPRESS DEEP MOIST CONVECTION, ESPECIALLY ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WHEN SURFACE DEWPOINTS MAY DROP INTO THE UPPER
50S. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS WEST OF THE ALBANY
AND TALLAHASSEE, WITH POPS RANGING FROM 20 TO 50 PERCENT (HIGHEST
WEST) THURSDAY, AND ONLY AROUND 20 PERCENT FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE, WITH HIGHS AROUND 90 AND LOWS IN THE 60S.
THE LOWER HUMIDITY WILL AID IN SWEAT EVAPORATION, MAKING IT FEEL A
BIT MORE COMFORTABLE.


.LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DEVELOP AND BECOME CENTERED IN THE
VICINITY OF AR LATER THIS WEEKEND THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. OUR
FORECAST AREA WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON THE SOUTHEAST FLANK OF THIS CYCLONE. THE INCREASE
IN Q-G FORCING, ALONG WITH A RETURN TO AT LEAST AVERAGE PRECIP
WATER VALUES AND MLCAPE, WILL BRING OUR POPS BACK TO CLIMO LEVELS
(30-50 PERCENT) EACH AFTERNOON LATE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR THEIR CLIMO VALUES, WITH LOWS
NEAR 70 AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S.


.MARINE...

AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE WILL REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE MOSTLY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. THESE WINDS WILL TEND TO
BE A BIT STRONGER AND FROM THE EAST OVERNIGHT, THEN LIGHTER AND
MORE ONSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOONS.


.FIRE WEATHER...

A DRIER AIR MASS ADVANCING IN FROM THE EAST THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
WILL ONE...AID IN SUPPRESSING MORE WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WHILE TWO...LOWERING EASTERN TWO THIRD FORECAST AREA
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S BOTH THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS. A BACKGROUND LIGHT EASTERLY EARLY DAY
WIND....POSSIBLY DECOUPLING AND BECOMING CALM OVERNIGHT WHILE
VEERING NEAR THE COAST TO MORE SOUTHEASTERLY PER THE INLAND
ADVANCING BREEZE. OVERNIGHT INLAND INVERSION WILL KEEP MIXING DEPTHS
TO THE HUNDREDS OF FEET...BREAKING BY 9 AM AND REACHING NEAR 6
THOUSAND FEET BY EARLY AFTERNOON.


.HYDROLOGY...

24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS AS OF TUESDAY EVENING SHOWED A RATHER
CONCENTRATED AREA OF 1 TO 3 IN VALUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE FL
PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST AL. THERE WERE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6
IN. THIS LARGE VOLUME OF RAIN HAS CAUSED SOME SHARP RISES IN SOME
OF THE PANHANDLE RIVERS. WHILE MOST RIVERS WERE WELL BELOW THEIR
ACTION STAGE, MOSSY HEAD HAS RECENTLY REACHED ITS ACTION STAGE.
FORTUNATELY, AFTER TODAY, MUCH LESS RAIN IS EXPECTED, WHICH WILL
GIVE THE RIVERS TIME TO SUBSIDE BEFORE RAIN CHANCES INCREASE NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   67  90  67  90  68 /  20  10  10  10  10
PANAMA CITY   70  84  71  84  71 /  20  40  10  20  10
DOTHAN        67  87  67  89  67 /  40  40  20  20  10
ALBANY        67  90  66  90  66 /  30  10  10  10  10
VALDOSTA      67  90  64  89  66 /  10  10   0  10  10
CROSS CITY    67  90  63  90  66 /  10  10   0  10  10
APALACHICOLA  70  85  70  85  71 /  10  20  20  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING
     FOR COASTAL BAY-COASTAL FRANKLIN-SOUTH WALTON.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BLOOD
SHORT TERM...FOURNIER
LONG TERM...FOURNIER
AVIATION...BLOOD
MARINE...FOURNIER
FIRE WEATHER...BLOOD
HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER



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