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000
FXUS62 KTAE 071604
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1104 AM EST Fri Mar 7 2014

.Near Term [Rest of Today]...

Rain has essentially ended across the area per recent radar mosaic,
so we will carry a dry forecast for the rest of the day. Otherwise,
the stratus layer in place across the area has remained in tact over
the entire area through 16z. There was some evidence on visible
satellite that it may begin scattering out in southeast Alabama
soon. However, the latest runs of the HRRR show low clouds hanging
in over the eastern and southeastern parts of the area through
sunset, which may keep highs in the 40s to around 50 degrees today
across southwest Georgia and into the Florida Big Bend.
Therefore, we reduced high temperatures in those areas while
allowing for warmer highs in the upper 50s further west where
clouds are expected to scatter out sooner.

&&

.Prev Discussion [629 AM EST]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Sunday]...
High pressure will begin to build over the tonight and remain in
place through Saturday. The incoming airmass, while cold, isn`t
especially chilly. As a result, expect temperatures overnight to
drop into the mid to upper 30s.

Saturday will begin a warming trend with mostly sunny skies and
temperatures warming into the low to mid 70s. Increasing cloud
cover late in the day and into the overnight hours Saturday night
will keep temperatures a little warmer, with lows only in the mid
to upper 40s.

Sunday, the models diverge a little with the NAM being more
aggressive in returning rain chances to the region. While the
GFS/NAM/Euro all show a northern stream disturbance moving through
the Southern Appalachians, it is only the NAM that tries to phase
in some southern stream energy. Given that the GFS and Euro are in
good agreement that only a modest increase in cloud cover is
likely for Sunday afternoon, have kept rain chances out of the
forecast. Even with increasing cloud cover, still expect
temperatures to make it into the mid 70s away from the coast.


.Long Term [Sunday Night Through Friday]...

We will remain in a fairly active pattern for the next 7 days, with
normal temperatures and fairly low rain chances for Sunday into
early next week. However, another strong system will be looming as
we get into the mid week with rain chances once again increasing
by Wednesday. Thursday into Friday could see a return to below
normal temperatures behind the next strong cold front.


.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Saturday] While the rain has moved away from all area
terminals this morning, IFR vsby and cigs will be slow to lift.
Expect IFR condtions to continue through midday before clouds lift
during the afternoon. VFR conditions return by this evening to all
terminals.


.Marine...
Winds will gradually diminish this afternoon as a low pressure
area moves up the Eastern Seaboard. High pressure will then build
over the marine area and keep conditions tranquil into next week.


.Fire Weather...
Humidity values will remain well above critical levels through the
weekend.


.Hydrology...
Rainfall overnight is falling in the lower portion of the river
basins, and delivering 0.5 to 0.75 inches of rain from Panama City
eastward to the Suwannee River. Expect modest rises to continue on
area rivers throughout the weekend. Outside of the Apalachicola
River, minor flood levels should not be met, however, several
points will likely reach action stage by Sunday if not sooner.
Increased releases from Woodruff will push the Apalachicola River
at Blountstown very close to minor flood stage by Saturday
afternoon.

The next substantive system on Tuesday will have the potential to
deliver up to an inch of rain across region, which could lead to
some minor flooding issues on area rivers, particularly in the
Florida Panhandle.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   52  37  72  44  75 /  10   0   0   0  10
Panama City   54  44  68  51  70 /  10   0   0  10  10
Dothan        57  39  72  49  74 /  10   0   0  10  10
Albany        52  37  72  46  74 /  20   0   0  10  10
Valdosta      49  36  72  44  75 /  20  10   0   0  10
Cross City    50  36  72  45  75 /  10   0   0   0  10
Apalachicola  52  43  66  51  69 /  10   0   0   0  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LAMERS
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...EVANS
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...CAMP
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY