Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 021947
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
347 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW FROM A CLUSTER OF STORMS SOUTH OF PENSACOLA
SPARKED DEVELOPMENT OF MUCH OF THE STORMS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
EXPECT THESE STORMS TO CONTINUE RIDING THE OUTFLOW ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL GEORGIA THROUGH 6 PM. THE AIRMASS HAS STABILIZED BEHIND
THE CONVECTION AND WITH PLENTY OF MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS
LIMITING HEATING, EXPECT LITTLE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS A RESULT, AFTER THE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON
CLEAR OUT, SHOULD BE A RELATIVELY QUIET NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S.

.SHORT TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT]...
THE BASE OF THE 500 MB TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL AL AND
GA. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUB TROPICAL RIDGE WILL BUILD NORTHWARD
INTO OUR CWA. THE MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT ON HOW TO HANDLE THE
POPS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE EURO BRINGS IN DRY AIR FROM THE
RIDGE AND SUPPRESSES STORM ACTIVITY EVEN THOUGH IT HAS STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COMING IN FROM THE GULF. THE GFS KEEPS THE
OVERALL PATTERN UNSETTLED AS IMPULSES MOVE AROUND THE SOUTHERN
BASE OF THE TROUGH THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. EVEN IN THE EURO,
THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH TO GENERATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS WITH THE SEA BREEZE. SO, DECIDED TO
LEAN MORE TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGY WHICH HAS THE SEA BREEZE FRONT
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON KEEPING POPS IN THE 30-40 PERCENT
RANGE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MORE LIKELY TO
LINGER ON INTO THE EVENING HOURS IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AS IS
TYPICAL FOR SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIMES. WITH LESS CONVECTION THAN
THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS, HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 90S
AND LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 70S.

.LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...
MODELS KEEP THE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY BEFORE THERE SEEMS TO BE CONSENSUS FOR IT TO LIFT BACK TO
THE NORTH AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
WITH THE TROUGH IN PLACE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND, THE
PATTERN SUGGESTS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES FOR RAIN,
MAINLY IN THE 40 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE. BY THE LATTER PART OF THE
PERIOD, A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONVECTIVE PATTERN SHOULD RETURN
WITH RAIN CHANCES MAINLY IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY] SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON COULD
PRODUCE VERY STRONG WINDS AND BRIEF VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WITH
HEAVY RAIN. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING AS THE COASTAL WATERS REMAIN NORTH OF THE
BERMUDA RIDGE. WINDS WILL BE AT THEIR STRONGEST DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SOME LCOAL RISES HAVE OCCURED OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS ON AREA RIVER
GAGES, BUT ABSENT ANY SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAIN FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS, AREA RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ACTION STAGES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   73  94  72  94  73 /  10  30  10  40  20
PANAMA CITY   78  88  78  89  77 /  10  20  10  30  20
DOTHAN        73  93  73  94  73 /  10  30  20  40  30
ALBANY        73  92  73  93  72 /  20  40  20  30  30
VALDOSTA      72  94  72  95  72 /  20  30  20  30  20
CROSS CITY    73  93  73  94  73 /  10  20  10  30  20
APALACHICOLA  77  89  77  90  77 /  10  10  20  30  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR COASTAL
     FRANKLIN-COASTAL GULF.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GODSEY
SHORT TERM...CHANEY/GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...MCDERMOTT
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...MCDERMOTT
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY


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