Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 232353

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
653 PM EST Mon Jan 23 2017

.AVIATION [Through 00Z Wednesday]...

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period under
generally clear skies. Some broken lower clouds could briefly
develop over DHN, ABY, and VLD overnight, but cigs should remain
at VFR levels. Guidance is also showing a few hours of fog
possible at VLD around sunrise, but light winds should prevent any
widespread fog from developing. Shortly after sunrise, any patchy
fog should dissipate. Expect mostly clear skies and dry
conditions to continue through the end of the period at all



.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

The occluded low over the Mid-Atlantic will move northeast
overnight, with low amplitude ridging moving into the Southeast.
At the surface, gusty northwest winds will continue but gradually
weaken through the night. CAA will push lows down into the mid 40s
across Georgia and Alabama tonight, with upper 40s to low 50s
expected in north Florida. Lingering cloud cover from this
afternoon should clear east by this evening, with only a small
chance for a brief round of low clouds across parts of our AL/GA
counties overnight.

.SHORT TERM [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...

Deep layer ridging will prevail through Wednesday, though it will
dampen out a bit on Wednesday with the approach of a longwave
trough. Wednesday night, the core of the trough will move into the
Great Lakes region and a cold front will begin to move through the
Tri-State region. Rain is expected over night, but thunderstorms
are not.

High temperatures will climb through the period, with mid to upper
60s on Tuesday and mid to upper 70s on Wednesday. Lows Tuesday
night will once again be in the middle 40s, but moderate well into
the 50s on Wednesday night ahead of the cold front.

.LONG TERM [Thursday Through Monday]...

The cold front will push through the area by Thursday afternoon, with
PoPs ranging from 20% in SE Alabama to 30% in the Big Bend. By
Friday upper level flow will be zonal and remain that way for the
rest of the period. Temperatures will be noticeably cooler behind the
front with highs in the mid to upper 50s and lows in the mid 30s.


Prevailing Gale conditions have come to an end across our
northeast Gulf waters with only occasional Gale gusts continuing.
These gusts should fall solidly into Advisory levels in the next
couple of hours. Winds will gradually subside through the night
and seas a little slower to follow. It appears as though Advisory
winds and seas will cease by morning tomorrow. Winds should stay
relatively light for about 24 hours before possibly reaching
Cautionary levels once again by Wednesday or Wednesday night.


No fire weather issues are expected through the next several days as
RH values remain above critical thresholds. West-northwesterly winds
with gusts to around 30 mph this afternoon will decrease tonight and
become light tomorrow morning.


The recent rain system has resulted in rises on several area
rivers with several sites reaching minor flood stage along the
Withlacoochee, Ochlockonee and Flint rivers. For the
Choctawhatchee River, Geneva and Caryville will reach minor flood,
Newton will reach moderate flood and Bruce is forecast to reach
major flood stage. Additionally the Kinchafoonee Creek at Dawson
will reach minor flood stage and the Apalachicola river at
Blountstown is forecast to reach moderate flood stage.



Tallahassee   47  68  45  77  58 /   0   0   0   0  50
Panama City   51  64  56  74  58 /   0   0   0  10  50
Dothan        44  64  46  75  52 /   0   0   0  10  50
Albany        45  65  43  74  55 /   0   0   0  10  50
Valdosta      47  67  45  76  58 /   0   0   0   0  50
Cross City    50  68  45  76  60 /   0   0   0  10  20
Apalachicola  52  65  55  74  61 /   0   0   0  10  40



FL...High Rip Current Risk until 1 AM EST /midnight CST/ Tuesday for
     Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

     High Surf Advisory until 1 AM EST /midnight CST/ Tuesday for
     Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for Apalachee Bay or
     Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee River Fl
     out to 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River to
     Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from Suwannee
     River to Keaton Beach out 20 NM-Coastal waters from
     Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee
     River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from
     Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.



NEAR TERM...Harrigan
SHORT TERM...Harrigan
LONG TERM...Weston
HYDROLOGY...Weston is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.