Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 031400
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1000 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015
.Near Term [Through Today]...
With the upper level high centered over Florida, forcing mechanisms
will be limited to the sea breeze today. Northwest flow in the 1000-
700 mb layer limits convection to along the coast and the Florida
zones. PoPs will range from 20-35% today. Highs will be in the low
to mid 90s, which is slightly above average.
[Through 12Z Friday]...
VFR will prevail at all terminals. There is a chance for sea
breeze thunderstorms this afternoon but confidence was not high
enough to mention in TAF.
.Prev Discussion [358 AM EDT]...
.Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]...
A weak and rather broad upper level trough will prevail across the
region through the period. At the surface, a weak low pressure
system (the remnants of Erika) off the GA coast tonight will drift
southeastward to near the northern Bahama`s on Saturday. Meanwhile,
a wedge of high pressure will be building southwestward from the mid-
Atlantic states, through the Carolina`s and into central Georgia by
late Saturday pushing a back door cold front our way. PoPs will be
below seasonal levels (~30%) on Friday with the mean 1000-700mb flow
continuing from the north to northwest. We should see an increase in
convection on Saturday as low level moisture increases from easterly
flow ahead of the back door front. Forecast PW`s increase to over
2.0" by late Saturday. PoPs will be in the good chance to likely
range (50-60%). Temperatures will be a bit above average, with lows
in the 70s and highs in the lower to mid 90s.
.Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...
A broad upper level trough will elongate NE to SW across the
southeast CONUS and eastern Gulf through much of the extended
period. A surface front will gradually dissipate but deep layer
moisture along with a few upper level impulses with keep rain
chances near to above seasonal levels through Labor Day and into
the middle of next week. Temperatures will be near climo, around
70 for lows and highs near 90.
Light winds and low seas at least through the Labor Day weekend.
There are no red flag concerns for the next several days.
The rivers remained below their local action stages, and will
likely continue as we do not expect widespread heavy rain for at
least the next few days.
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 95 74 94 73 93 / 30 20 30 30 60
Panama City 90 77 90 76 89 / 30 20 30 20 50
Dothan 93 72 94 72 93 / 30 20 30 20 50
Albany 93 73 94 72 92 / 20 20 30 20 50
Valdosta 92 73 93 72 92 / 30 20 30 30 60
Cross City 92 74 93 73 92 / 30 20 40 30 60
Apalachicola 91 78 91 76 89 / 20 20 30 30 60