Area Forecast Discussion
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996
FXUS62 KTAE 291427
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1027 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...
The 14 UTC surface analysis this morning showed weak high pressure
off to the west of the region with Tropical Depression Bonnie now
inland just NE of Charleston SC. Surface flow is very light this
morning, with overall deep layer flow also light and out of the
west. Overall, the airmass has moistened in the last 24 hours and
the subsidence inversion has weakened. Given a slightly more
convectively favorable environment today, expect to see a little
better afternoon thunderstorm coverage across the Florida
Panhandle and perhaps into Southeastern Alabama. It still appears
as though there`s too much dry air in the mid levels back to the
east across Srn GA.

The current PoP distribution supports the mid morning analysis,
and the latest ECAM guidance also still favors scattered storms in
the Florida Panhandle later this afternoon. As a result, no
changes are planned on the morning update. Should also be a warm
day, with highs generally in the low to mid 90s.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 12Z Monday]...
VFR conditions will prevail through the period. The only exception
would be at ECP where SCT TSRA will at least be in vicinity of
ECP this afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [312 AM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Tuesday]...

The broad upper ridge over the east coast will lift northeast
through Monday. Tropical Storm Bonnie will slowly move along the
coast of the Carolinas but will not have any impact locally.
Daytime heating and dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s will allow
for afternoon thunderstorms to form along the sea breeze. PoPs
will be in the 20-30% range. Highs will be in the lower 90s and
lows near 70.


.LONG TERM [Tuesday Night Through Sunday]...

A trough over the northern plains will deepen as it moves eastward.
Locally the sea breeze will be the dominant forcing mechanism and
PoPs will range from 20-30%. Rain chances will increase as the
next system arrives over the weekend. Highs will be in the lower
90s with lows near 70.


.MARINE...

Winds will generally be from the west around 10 knots. Seas will
be 2 feet or less.


.FIRE WEATHER...

Aside from marginally high dispersions across the Suwannee River
Basin the next couple of days, hazardous fire weather conditions are
not expected.


.HYDROLOGY...

All rivers are below action stage and there are no hydrology
concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   93  70  93  70  93 /  10  10  20  10  40
Panama City   84  73  86  74  86 /  30  10  20  10  20
Dothan        90  68  94  69  93 /  20  10  20  10  30
Albany        90  68  93  69  93 /  10  10  10  10  20
Valdosta      90  67  93  68  92 /   0   0  10  10  30
Cross City    91  68  91  70  91 /  10   0  20  10  20
Apalachicola  85  72  86  73  86 /  30   0  20  10  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Godsey
SHORT TERM...Weston
LONG TERM...Weston
AVIATION...Godsey
MARINE...Weston
FIRE WEATHER...Harrigan
HYDROLOGY...Weston



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