Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 231047
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
647 AM EDT Sun Jul 23 2017

.AVIATION [Through 12Z Monday]...

Low clouds have developed over portions of the local region and
are currently impacting the ABY and VLD terminals. Scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms will expand inland from south
to north across our area today. As usual, any visibility
reductions due to showers/storms will be brief.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [304 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

Convection has already developed and was moving inland across the
eastern Big Bend early this morning. An active day for showers and
thunderstorms is expected with deep layer moisture in place (PW`s
2.0"+) and moderate west to southwest flow. MOS guidance agrees with
PoPs in the likely category across the entire CWA. Highs will be
around 90.


.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Tuesday]...

Flat surface ridging will reside across the Tri-State region as
high pressure will be positioned in the northern Gulf. The high
pressure center will slide westward Tuesday in response to a
surface trough moving into the southeast. Deep tropical moisture
will remain in place with PWATs around 2 inches. Seabreeze
activity will be the main driver of showers and storms each day
with added convection due to a weak mid level trough to our
northwest. Precipitation chances will run at climo norms to
slightly above for late July. High temperatures will be in the
lower 90s with lows in the mid 70s.


.LONG TERM [Tuesday Night Through Sunday]...

The east coast trough will deepen once again as a shortwave trough
moves across the Midwest. This will keep our area in generally a
higher precipitation chance regime with the seabreeze fronts as
the main driver with some added mid level support from the trough.
Therefore, a typical wet pattern is in store for the long term.
Highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s and lows in the mid 70s.


.MARINE...

High pressure will dominate the northern Gulf coastal waters
through this period featuring light to moderate southwest to west
winds and generally low seas. Showers and thunderstorms will be
possible each day especially in the overnight and early morning
hours. Locally higher winds and seas can be expected in and around
thunderstorms.


.FIRE WEATHER...

No concerns.


.HYDROLOGY...

Typical summertime showers and thunderstorms will develop each
day. Some minor or nuisance flooding is possible in urban and
poor drainage areas around slower moving storms. Widespread
flooding is not expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   89  74  90  75  90 /  60  20  50  20  50
Panama City   86  78  87  79  88 /  60  40  50  20  50
Dothan        90  74  91  74  90 /  60  20  60  30  60
Albany        90  74  91  74  90 /  50  20  60  30  60
Valdosta      91  73  90  73  91 /  60  20  60  20  60
Cross City    88  74  89  75  90 /  60  40  50  20  50
Apalachicola  86  77  89  78  89 /  60  30  50  20  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Barry
SHORT TERM...Scholl
LONG TERM...Scholl
AVIATION...Barry
MARINE...Scholl
FIRE WEATHER...Barry
HYDROLOGY...Scholl



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