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000
FXUS62 KTAE 311124
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
620 AM EST Sat Jan 31 2015

.Near Term [Through Today]...
The 11 pm EST regional surface analysis showed the cold front that
passed through our forecast area early Friday was in south FL,
with higher pressure building across the Southeast. Vapor imagery
and upper air data showed a southern stream ridge developing over
the Southern Plains, and this ridge will be spreading rapidly
eastward today. After a cool start this morning (with temperatures
in the lower to mid 30s and patchy frost), high temperatures will
reach the upper 50s (around Dothan and Albany) to mid 60s (around
Cross City). Sunshine will be partially filtered at times through
thin high clouds.


.Short Term [Tonight Through Monday]...
The next cold front will affect the area during the day on Sunday
through Sunday night with an increased chance of showers. All of
the available guidance keep the main surface low well north of
the area in the Ohio Valley with minimal instability expected.
Thus, severe weather is not currently expected with this system,
although an isolated rumble of thunder is within the realm of
possibilities, mainly close to the coast.


.Long Term [Monday Night Through Saturday]...
A cooler airmass will move in behind the front for Monday night
with a light freeze possible across portions of the area.
However, with the upper flow quickly becoming zonal, a significant
cool down is not anticipated. The next system will bring rain to
the area by Wednesday into Thursday as an upper low over the
southwestern states ejects into the Western Gulf. There remains
some timing differences with the guidance, so PoPs are spread out
fairly evenly between the two days. Once the timing becomes more
clear, PoPs will probably rise one of the days and fall for the
other. At the moment, most of the guidance keeps the associated
surface low just offshore, which will limit any severe threat.
Another shot of cooler air will follow this system for the end of
the week.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12z Sunday] Occasional high cigs (around 25 kft) today will
not impact general aviation. Vis will be unrestricted. Light N winds
early this morning will veer to the E or even ESE at 5 to
9 KT by this afternoon. Some of the NWP guidance is forecasting MVFR
cigs around KECP and KDHN by daybreak Sunday, but we will wait to
address this possibility on our 18z TAF package, to see if this
trend continues.

&&

.Marine...
Winds and seas will increase over the next day with advisory
conditions expected to return on Sunday ahead of a cold front.
Advisory conditions are also possible behind the front for Monday
with improving conditions on Tuesday. By mid to late week, another
system will bring increasing winds and seas once again.

&&

.Fire Weather...
RH values this afternoon will drop well below 40%, but are still
expected to remain just above locally critical levels. RH values
will increase beginning Sunday ahead of an approaching frontal
system. Dispersion values may be rather high on Sunday, primarily
due to strong transport winds.

&&

.Hydrology...
The next system arriving for the Sunday-Sunday night time frame
appears capable of producing around a half inch to inch of rain
across portions of the area with a few localized heavier amounts.
These amounts will likely provide for a small rise in river
levels, but they are unlikely to result in a return to flood
stages at any of the forecast points.

The system for the Wednesday-Thursday time frame may be a bit more
significant with 1-2" of rain possible with localized higher
amounts. When combined with the rains from the first system and
already above average stream flows, a few rivers may approach minor
flood stage late in the week. At this time, the progressive nature
of the pattern is expected to keep rainfall amounts from getting
high enough to produce more significant flooding.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   62  44  67  58  62 /   0   0  40  60  40
Panama City   60  49  64  55  59 /   0   0  70  60  30
Dothan        58  42  64  47  53 /   0   0  80  70  20
Albany        58  39  66  52  56 /   0   0  60  70  30
Valdosta      60  42  70  57  61 /   0   0  20  60  50
Cross City    65  44  72  59  65 /   0   0  10  50  50
Apalachicola  59  49  66  60  63 /   0   0  40  60  40

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOURNIER
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER
HYDROLOGY...DVD