Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 250128

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
828 PM EST Fri Feb 24 2017


Mid level ridging continues to move into the western Atlantic
while a mid level trough and associated cold front moves into the
Mid South. The front will continue its trek eastward, possibly
reaching our SE AL counties at daybreak. A few showers are
possible along the front but instability and support are expected
to be weak. Low clouds and patchy fog is likely overnight across
a large majority of the Tri-State region. Lows will fall into the
upper 50s inland/lower 60s coast.



.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
The upper level ridge axis over us this afternoon will move off the
Southeast U.S. coast tonight. A cold front will approach from the
northwest after midnight with slight to low chance PoPs (20-30%) for
showers across our zones northwest if a line from Albany to Panama
City Beach. Further east, low clouds are expected to develop and
along with some fog patches. Lows will be well above normal in the
upper 50s inland and lower 60s at the coast. That`s about 15 degrees
above our seasonal levels.

.SHORT TERM [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...
A cold front will move into the region Saturday morning and cross
the area by early afternoon. Lift and deep layer moisture will be
at a premium, so it`s unlikely that we`ll see much if any precip
ahead of the front as it comes through. Will continue the 20 PoP
prior to 18z, though this may be a bit overdone. While cool
advection will get going behind the front, it will be tempered
somewhat by full sunshine which should help afternoon high
temperatures stay in the 70-75 degree range.

A big cool down is expected Saturday night as a high pressure area
moves into the Southeast. Though there has been some recent
variability with the statistical guidance, numerical models show
the high pressure center likely to remain well to the north of our
region, maybe even as far as the Tennessee border. As a result, it
doesn`t appear that surface winds will ever truly go calm,
minimizing any radiational cooling effects. This type of situation
is usually best suited to going warmer than the statistical
guidance. Will have a forecast that in the upper 30s across our
northern zones to the lower 40s in Florida (except perhaps the far
western Florida zones that could see upper 30s).

High pressure will move east of the region by Sunday afternoon,
and with sunny skies temperatures will warm into the upper 60s to
lower 70s after the cool start, a noticeable difference when
compared to the record warmth seen on Thursday and Friday of this
week. Overnight lows into Monday will still be on the cool side,
but not nearly as chilly as Sunday morning.

.LONG TERM [Monday Through Friday]...
Model guidance has had some difficulty with the upcoming week`s
weather. What initially looked like a frontal passage in the late
Mon-Tue timeframe isn`t depicted in the guidance any more.
Essentially, a warm front developing just north of the area should
serve as a focus for precip as a shortwave trough moves across the
southeastern states. Then by Wednesday, another northern stream
trough looks sufficient to push a cold front through into the area
on Wednesday night into Thursday. While yesterday, this cold front
cleared the forecast area, there`s some indication that this front
may stall across the area until at least Friday, keeping a lower
end chance for rain in place into Friday.

.AVIATION [Through 00Z Sunday]...

Patchy fog will develop late tonight into the early morning hours.
LIFR CIGs are expected with vis dropping to 2 or 3 miles at many
locations. Fog and low CIGs will lift shortly after sunrise.
Otherwise VFR conditions are expected. A cold front will move
through Saturday with only a slight chance of rain expected mainly
in the morning hours. Northwesterly winds will be gusty Saturday

Light winds tonight will increase during the daytime hours on
Saturday as a cold front moves across the marine area. Winds will
further increase Saturday night to near advisory levels. After a
brief lull on Sunday afternoon, winds will markedly increase
Sunday night and remain at cautionary levels into Monday
afternoon. After Monday afternoon into Wednesday, modest southerly
flow will prevail over the waters.

Relative humidity values will drop to critical levels across the
forecast area on Saturday afternoon. And though wind speeds will
be near 15 mph thresholds, the other required criteria (fuel
moisture/ERC/etc) will not be met. Thus no fire weather headlines
are planned for Saturday. On Sunday, even lower relative humidity
values are expected, but with lighter winds, headline criteria
will not be met. A moistening trend begins on Monday and continues
through much of the upcoming week.

Releases out of Lake Seminole have stabilized at 38kcfs and these
releases are likely to decrease late tonight or into Saturday as
the pool elevation returns nearer to normal in the lake. At this
level, the Apalachicola River will remain solidly above action
levels, cresting tonight in the 14.5-15ft range at Blountstown
before dropping later this weekend.

The Choctawhatchee continues to rise in Florida, but is expected
to remain only in the action category from Caryville through Bruce
this weekend.

With no significant heavy rainfall expected through the next 5
days, there are no river flood concerns.



Tallahassee   58  77  41  70  48 /  10  20   0   0   0
Panama City   63  72  44  66  54 /  10  20   0   0   0
Dothan        59  70  37  67  46 /  20  20   0   0   0
Albany        59  73  37  66  44 /  10  20   0   0   0
Valdosta      59  77  41  70  45 /   0  10   0   0   0
Cross City    58  77  43  73  48 /   0  10   0   0   0
Apalachicola  61  75  46  67  55 /  10  20   0   0   0






LONG TERM...Godsey
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