Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 300527

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
127 AM EDT Sun Apr 30 2017

.AVIATION [Through 06Z Monday]...

MVFR conditions are possible later tonight at all TAF sites as
CIGs lower across the region. Southeasterly winds generally AOB
10kts are expected to prevail overnight, preventing any fog
formation. Expect CIGs to gradually lift after sunrise, with VFR
conditions resuming during the mid to late morning hours. Gusty
southeasterly winds are expected by late morning, with speeds
generally from 15 to 20kts and occasional gusts to 25kts.



.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

A light shower is possible for the remainder of the afternoon into
early evening across the region. Otherwise, it will be mostly cloudy
with only patchy fog expected overnight. Lows will be in the upper
60s to around 70.

.SHORT TERM [Sunday Through Monday Night]...

The upper low centered over the Four Corners region this morning
will be centered just north of the Great Lakes Monday morning. The
attendant surface cold front will translate eastward across our
forecast area on Monday, which is 6 hours or so slower than the NWP
model runs from 24 hours ago. There is still good agreement among
the various model runs that much of our region will receive some
needed rain on Monday.

The severe weather threat for Monday still appears marginal. We
expect a rather vigorous QLCS to approach our forecast area from the
west Sunday night, but to begin weakening as it enters southeast AL
and the FL Panhandle in the pre-dawn hours of Monday, as the parent
surface cyclone begins occluding over the Great Lakes. Significant
pre-frontal cloud cover is likely to limit MLCAPE values to 1000
J/kg or less, and weakening wind fields aloft with time will lessen
the potential for significant storm organization. Still, there may
be enough surface cold pool organization, especially early Monday
while vertical wind shear is stronger, to support isolated damaging
wind gusts. The main threat area will be for the region north
and west of Tallahassee.

.LONG TERM [Tuesday Through Saturday]...

We expect generally fair and warm weather Tuesday and Wednesday.
There is a good chance of rain Thursday as an upper-level trough
develops over the central Gulf Coast states. However, the global
models diverge considerably in their handling of this system by
week`s end, with the ECMWF and CMC models taking the trough axis
(and associated surface cold front) east of our forecast area
Thursday night, and the GFS closing off an occluded low over the
Deep South and having it meander through Saturday. The GFS solution
would keep rain chances for our region into Saturday, while the
other solutions would mean clearing by Thursday night. Temperatures
will be near average during this period, but could be below average
of the CMC/ECMWF solutions verified, with cooler, drier air entering
the area sooner.


Moderate to strong SE-S winds will continue across the coastal
waters through Monday, ahead of an approaching cold front. Advisory
conditions are possible at times, mainly west of Apalachicola. This
will lead to high surf, strong rip currents, and slightly above-
normal tides. Much lower winds and seas are expected mid week.



Local rivers will remain below flood stage through at least Monday
morning. QPF values will generally be in the 0.50 to 1 inch range
from Tallahassee north and westward, and not enough to cause
significant river rises. QPF values in north FL will likely be much
less. More rain is expected later next week, but model differences
make it unclear as to how much of, if any a flood threat there will



Tallahassee   86  71  78  57  86 /  10  20  60  30  10
Panama City   81  73  74  61  81 /  10  60  80  10  10
Dothan        87  69  74  54  85 /  20  70  80  10   0
Albany        89  71  77  54  83 /  10  30  70  10   0
Valdosta      89  71  82  58  85 /  20  20  50  40  10
Cross City    89  71  83  65  84 /  10  10  20  50  20
Apalachicola  81  73  76  62  82 /  10  30  50  20  10



FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for Coastal Bay-South

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM early this morning to 5 PM EDT
     this afternoon for Apalachee Bay or Coastal Waters From
     Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee River Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal
     Waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20
     Nm-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach out
     20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20
     NM-Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to
     60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60



LONG TERM...Fournier
HYDROLOGY...Lahr is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.