Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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000
FXUS65 KVEF 242237
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
237 PM PST WED DEC 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT
BRINGING STRONG WINDS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEVADA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA. SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN THE SIERRA THIS EVENING AND
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN ON CHRISTMAS DAY. MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON
CHRISTMAS DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES LINGERING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. NORTHERLY FLOW AND ANOTHER SYSTEM PROMISES MORE COLD
WEATHER NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER TODAY HAS HINDERED DAYTIME HEATING AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO FALL SHORT OF FORECASTED NUMBERS. IN
AREAS WHERE CLOUDS WERE LESS OPAQUE...SUCH AS THE WESTERN MOJAVE
DESERT, TEMPERATURES WERE WARMING AT A QUICKER PACE AND SHOULD GET
CLOSER TO FORECASTED HIGHS. SKIES WERE CLEARING OVER THE NORTHWEST
CWA AT 2 PM AS ABUNDANT LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE WAS GETTING BLOCKED
BY THE SIERRA RANGE AND HIGH CLOUD COVER WAS MOVING OFF TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST.

WINTER WAS DELAYED BY ONLY A FEW DAYS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS A
RELATIVELY MILD STRETCH OF WEATHER COMES TO AN ABRUPT END. A STORM
CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO BRING WINDY AND
CHILLER WEATHER TO THE AREA BEGINNING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
FRIDAY. WIND ADVISORIES ARE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH CHRISTMAS MORNING.
WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 40-50 MPH ARE EXPECTED AND WILL MAKE TEMPERATURES
FEEL MUCH COOLER THAN THEY ACTUALLY ARE. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
WILL ALSO GO INTO EFFECT FOR LINCOLN COUNTY LATER THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUE INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING. GENERALLY...LESS THAN 3 INCHES OF
SNOW IS EXPECTED BUT AN INCH OR TWO MORE COULD ACCUMULATE IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OVER NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY. THE AIRMASS IS COLD
ENOUGH THAT SNOW IS LIKELY AT THE VALLEY FLOORS. THE SIERRA COULD
GET A QUICK SHOT OF SNOW THIS EVENING WITH UP TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE
AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN MOUNTAINS INCLUDING THE SPRING MOUNTAINS AND SHEEP RANGE, AN
INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

BRISK NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION ON CHRISTMAS DAY
WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE CENTRAL
NEVADA MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 5 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL BUT THE WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL COOLER. WINDS WILL
DECREASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT REMAIN GUSTY WITH LOCAL GUSTY
CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW AMPLE
RADIATIONAL COOLING TO TAKE PLACE UNDER CLEAR SKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO PLUNGE SATURDAY MORNING WITH MANY DESERT LOCATIONS
REACHING SUBFREEZING CONDITIONS.
$$

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

OVERALL WE ARE LOOKING AT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES UNDER A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE FLOW WILL BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS. THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING A DEEPENING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DOWN THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW INTO OUR AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. BOTH MODELS INDICATE THIS TO BE A
MOISTURE STARVED SYSTEM WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS
OVER LINCOLN AND NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTIES. DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THE TROUGH WILL BE INCREASING
NORTH WINDS MONDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD WINDY
CONDITIONS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT
LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 6 KTS.
PREFRONTAL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 8 TO 12 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS
WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING WITH WINDS TRANSITIONING TO NORTHWESTERLY
WITH FROPA BETWEEN 10Z-12Z THURSDAY. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY
WILL GENERALLY BE 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KTS WITH SOME DECREASE
IN GUST SPEEDS IN THE AFTERNOON.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LOW CLOUDS...SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS OVER
THE SIERRA. SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EAST OF THE SIERRA INTO CENTRAL
NEVADA LATER THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH CHRISTMAS MORNING
EVENTUALLY REACHING NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE DESERTS WITH
GUSTY NORTH WINDS MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST CWA SPREADING SOUTH
OVERNIGHT. WIDESPREAD GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED CHRISTMAS DAY.
&&

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS
ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SALMEN/HARRISON

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