Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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FXUS65 KVEF 250444 AAA
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
944 PM PDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Low pressure will be over the area through much
of the next week leading to well below normal temperatures and
possible showers over the Sierra and portions of central and
southern Nevada. Dry and occasionally breezy conditions are expected
elsewhere.
&&

.UPDATE...Low pressure will sit off the southern California coast
overnight with showers and isolated thunderstorms over the northwest
CWA. Partly to mostly cloudy conditions prevail over southcentral
Nevada and across the northern half of Inyo county and along Mohave
county. Elsewhere is mostly clear. Models generally show a decrease
in shower activity as the night wears. The strongest winds this
evening are associated with thunderstorm outflow in the Owens Valley
where wind sensors are measuring gusts between 30 and 40 mph. Gusts
over 30 mph are common in the western Mojave Desert while wind gusts
are in the teens to around 20 mph elsewhere. Updates are out with
only minor adjustments made to the inherited forecast.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...130 PM PDT...

.SHORT TERM...Through Thursday Night.

Isolated showers and thunderstorms have developed across portions of
the southern Great Basin early this afternoon. This activity is
expected to continue through sunset before tapering off. The main
threats with storms today will be gusty winds and lightning. To the
south, southwest winds gusting to 20-30 mph will continue through
this evening before diminishing overnight.

A slightly more potent disturbance will slide across the region
Wednesday...bringing broader chances for shower/thunderstorm
activity. Convection is mainly expected north of the I-15 corridor
through the day, however as the disturbance slides across the Mojave
Desert Wednesday evening, so too could a few isolated
showers/storms. I did nudge PoPs up slightly across San Bernardino
County. Will need to monitor model trends with respect to this
feature.

For Thursday, drier northwest flow is expected...with shower chances
mainly across the northeastern third of the area.

With disturbances continuing to roll through the area, temperatures
will continue to remain several degrees below normal through the
period.

.LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday.

Not much change from 24 hours ago. Longwave troughing will remain
across the western CONUS through the holiday weekend, with the core
energy holding across the Pacific northwest. Breezy to locally windy
conditions each afternoon will be the main story, while temperatures
generally hover slightly below normal over the weekend. Looks like
there will be just enough remnant moisture and destabilization each
afternoon to warrant a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
across the Sierra Nevada and southern Great Basin mountains.
&&

.AVIATION...For McCarran...VFR through the period. Generally
southwest winds 10-20 kts with gusts 20-30 kts, especially in the
afternoon and evening hours. Directions should consistently range
from 180 to 240 through tonight. Lighter winds are expected
Wednesday, generally from an east to southeast direction.

For the rest of southern Nevada...northwest Arizona...and southeast
California...For the southern Great Basin and Inyo County, chance
for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, especially this
afternoon and tonight. CIGs 050-100, potentially approaching MVFR in
heavier showers, with mountain obscurations likely. Winds generally
light. Outside of this region, VFR with S to SW winds 10-20 kts,
with occasional gusts to 30 kts, especially during the afternoon and
evening hours. Somewhat lighter winds are expected Wednesday along
with more widespread precipitation chances (mainly north of I-15).
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather according to standard operating procedures.
&&

$$

Update...Salmen

Previous Discussion...

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...Wolcott
LONG TERM.............Paddock

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