Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS01 KWNS 281238
SWODY1
SPC AC 281236

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0636 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

VALID 281300Z - 291200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
TEXAS THROUGH THIS MORNING.

...SYNOPSIS...

A BROAD...CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WILL PREVAIL OVER NORTH
AMERICA...DOWNSTREAM FROM AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE FAR NERN
PACIFIC. WITHIN THIS SYNOPTIC-SCALE PATTERN...A 100+ KT MIDLEVEL JET
STREAK WILL DEVELOP EQUATORWARD FROM THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST AND
PACIFIC NW INTO THE GREAT BASIN...CONTRIBUTING TO LOWERING HEIGHTS
AND TROUGH INTENSIFICATION OVER THE INTERIOR WEST. IN RESPONSE TO
THESE DEVELOPMENTS...A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE SRN PLAINS WILL
EJECT ENEWD...WEAKENING WITH TIME AS IT ENCOUNTERS AN INCREASINGLY
CONFLUENT FLOW REGIME IN PLACE OVER THE SERN U.S.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT PRESENTLY FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
TO CNTRL GULF COAST WILL CONTINUE EWD/SEWD WITH THE NRN EXTENSION OF
THIS BOUNDARY MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC COASTS
BY TONIGHT. FARTHER NORTH...A POLAR COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE SWWD
THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES...SWD THROUGH THE NRN INTO CNTRL
PLAINS...AND SEWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.

...SRN TX THIS MORNING...

FORCING FOR ASCENT/DCVA ATTENDANT TO THE WEAKENING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
IN CONJUNCTION WITH WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY /REF. 12Z DRT AND BRO
SOUNDINGS/ SHOULD SUSTAIN ISOLATED TSTMS THROUGH THE MORNING.

...CNTRL/ERN GULF STATES THIS MORNING...

SPORADIC LIGHTNING WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS MORNING WITH ANY DEEPER
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ONGOING PRE-FRONTAL
CONVECTIVE BAND...OR THE BROADER PRECIPITATION SHIELD IMMEDIATELY
TRAILING THE COLD FRONT. BASED ON 12Z SOUNDINGS...TSTM POTENTIAL
APPEARS TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT INCLUSION OF A GENERAL TSTM AREA.

..MEAD/ROGERS.. 12/28/2014




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