Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
ACUS01 KWNS 061933
SPC AC 061931
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0131 PM CST Tue Dec 06 2016
Valid 062000Z - 071200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
Scattered thunderstorms will affect parts of central and southern
Florida this afternoon and early evening.
The only appreciable change to the prior outlook is to remove
low-thunderstorm probabilities from the Carolinas vicinity.
Water-vapor imagery shows a dry-air intrusion wrapping around a
shortwave trough over the southeastern states. The mid-level dry
air and implied subsidence will probably prove detrimental to
thunderstorm activity over the Carolinas this afternoon. Farther
south, the 10-percent thunder line has been moved to be coincident
with the northwestern edge of ongoing storm activity over the
central portion of the FL peninsula.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CST TUE DEC 06 2016/
A vigorous mid-level shortwave trough is tracking northeastward
across the TN Valley and into the central Appalachians. An
associated cold front will continue to sag southward across central
FL, providing the focus for scattered showers and thunderstorms
today. Ample low level moisture and at least marginal instability
will be present ahead of the front, suggesting some risk of gusty
winds in the strongest cells. However, weakening wind fields with
time, limited low-level convergence, and the departing upper system
suggest the overall severe threat is low.
Farther north, a cluster of showers and occasional thunderstorms
will persist in vicinity of the cold pool near the upper trough
axis. No severe storms are anticipated in this region.