Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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ACUS01 KWNS 250433
SWODY1
SPC AC 250432

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1132 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND INTO EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA...WHERE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS. WHILE THE OVERALL TORNADO THREAT WILL REMAIN LIMITED ACROSS
THE REGION...A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST
VIRGINIA INTO NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA.

...SYNOPSIS...
A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS
DURING THE AFTERNOON BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE AFTER 00Z/SATURDAY. AT
THE SURFACE...WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN OHIO WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST ALONG THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOW WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS INTO THE VA/NC PIEDMONT BY 00Z SATURDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE...ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE ACROSS SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

ELSEWHERE...WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN AS
AN UPPER TROUGH STRENGTHENS/AMPLIFIES ALONG THE WEST COAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE MOVING INLAND OVERNIGHT.

...SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING AS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS EWD
TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS ERN
NC TOWARD THE CHESAPEAKE WITH A WARM/MOIST AIRMASS SPREADING OVER
THE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAINS OF NC INTO SE VA. WEAK TO MODERATE
DESTABILIZATION /LESS THAN 1800 J PER KG MUCAPE/ WILL OCCUR AS
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S F AND SFC DEW POINTS
CLIMB INTO THE LOW...TO LOCALLY MID 60S F. MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
STEEPEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS COOLING ALOFT OCCURS WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE UPPER IMPULSE. STRONG SHEAR COINCIDENT WITH THE EXIT
REGION OF THE MIDLEVEL JET WILL OVERSPREAD THE SLIGHT RISK AREA AND
AID IN ORGANIZATION OF THUNDERSTORM UPDRAFTS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE CYCLONICALLY CURVED...ALBEIT SMALL...LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS.
THIS WILL MAINLY SUPPORT INSTANCES OF LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER...A TORNADO OR TWO IS POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS
NE NC INTO EXTREME SE VA WHERE BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW AND STRONGER
PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE FAVORABLE. THE SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD WANE QUICKLY WITH DIURNAL COOLING AND AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES OFFSHORE.

..LEITMAN/DIAL.. 04/25/2014



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