Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS01 KWNS 161257
SPC AC 161255

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0655 AM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

Valid 161300Z - 171200Z


Isolated severe storms are possible this morning over east Texas,
and in the late afternoon and evening from the Arklatex to the
Mid-Mississippi Valley. Damaging winds, a brief tornado, and small
to marginally severe hail are anticipated.

...East TX to Mid-MS Valley...
Surface cyclone over south-central KS will shift into northeast MO
by evening. Attendant Pacific cold front will arc south then
southwest, becoming quasi-stationary across parts of southeast to
south-central TX. Partially modified Gulf air will advect
north ahead of this front, with upper 50s F dewpoints as far north
as the confluence of the MS/OH Rivers and generally 60s F from the
Mid-South to western Gulf Coast.

A swath of showers and rather isolated thunderstorms are ongoing
within the warm-conveyor belt from MO to east TX. This convection
should decrease in coverage and intensity into early afternoon, but
widespread clouds should persist over much of warm sector. Weak
mid-level lapse rates will further limit instability with MLCAPE
largely at or below 500 J/kg. Potential will exist for widely
scattered thunderstorms to redevelop in the late afternoon and early
evening near the impinging cold front. 35-45 kt effective shear
would support a conditional risk for organized updrafts/line
segments. However, stronger large-scale ascent should remain
divorced from where surface-based instability is prevalent. This in
conjunction with the overall marginal thermodynamic environment
should limit a more substantial severe threat.

..Grams.. 01/16/2017

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