Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 261127

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
627 AM EST Sun Feb 26 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.


...Caribbean Gale Warning...

Winds are forecast to increase across the central Caribbean
tonight through Monday as a high pressure builds over the
southwest Atlantic. Strong nocturnal flow is expected along the
northwest coast of Colombia, with gale conditions possible during
the overnight and early morning hours from Monday through
Thursday. Seas are forecast to build to 13-14 ft near the coast of
Colombia with the gale-force winds. See the latest High Seas
Forecast product under AWIPS/WHO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for
more details.


The Monsoon Trough passes through the coast of Africa near 10N15W
to 03N20W. The ITCZ continues from 03N20W to 02S42W. Scattered
showers prevail within 100 nm on either side of the ITCZ between



A cold front extends across the basin from 27N83W to 25N90W.
Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate northerly winds
north of the front while light to gentle southerly winds prevail
south of the front. A surface trough extends over the Bay of
Campeche from 22N92W to 20N93W. A surface ridge is building in
the wake of the cold front across the northern half of the basin.
The cold front is expected to continue moving southeast during the
next 24 hours while weakening. Return southeasterly flow begins
over the Gulf W of 90W this afternoon and spreads over most of
the Gulf through early Monday.


A sharp mid-to-upper level trough passes through the Windward
Passage and into the southwest corner of the basin. At the
surface, a trough was analyzed from 20N82W to 17N86W with isolated
showers. Another trough extends across the western half of
Hispaniola from 21N73W to 18N72W with isolated convection. Very
strong subsidence was noted in the wake of the trough and
elsewhere over the basin east of 80W. A weak surface ridge
extended from 20N60W through the northern Leeward Islands to
15N75W. This ridge maintained sub-normal trade winds over the
basin, generally around 10 kt. The trade winds should begin to
increase today as high pressure builds north of the area, with
strong winds likely within 90 nm of the coast of Colombia on
Sunday night into Monday. Gale-force winds are expected to develop
across the south-central Caribbean. Please refer to the section
above for details.


Water vapor imagery indicated very dry air/strong subsidence over
the entire island. A surface trough extends over Haiti with
isolated showers. Little change in the overall conditions is
anticipated through the remainder of the weekend.


A cold front has entered the west Atlantic extending from 29N81W
to 31N77W. A deep-layer trough extends through 32N66W to the
southeast Bahamas, through the Windward Passage, then into the
southwest corner of the Caribbean Sea. This trough is providing
limited support a surface trough that extends from 31N64W to
26N69W. Another surface trough extends from 24N73W to 20N73W. A
dissipating stationary front has transitioned into a surface
trough that extends from 31N41W to 27N50W to 24N54W. No
significant convection is observed at this time with this trough.
The remainder of the basin is under the influence of a surface
ridge anchored by a 1030 mb surface high centered near 37N39W.
Expect for the troughs to continue weakening through the next 24
hours. The cold front over the west Atlantic will continue moving
east enhancing winds/seas.

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