084
FXUS63 KDDC 151637
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1137 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe weather risk today mainly along and south of highway 50
  with the greatest risk near the Oklahoma border

- Trending warmer and drier for the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

KDDC radar at 06Z has a band of dying showers and storms mainly
from St. John to Ness City and area to the north and east of
that line...storms will continue to depart out of the DDC CWA
before sunrise. 06Z observations and upper air analysis shows a
passing shortwave in association with the storms in Kansas with
another longwave trough from the northern plains to Arizona. A
1009 mb high is building in western Kansas in response to the
subsidence with the departing storms and a cold front is
entering into far northwest Kansas.

Throughout today we should have a mix of sun and clouds with
the cold front passing through much of southwest Kansas by late
afternoon and stalling out in the Texas panhandle through
northwest Oklahoma and south central Kansas. Thunderstorms will
start to develop as we destabilize in the late afternoon in the
vicinity of the front and an approaching shortwave enters into
southeast Colorado. 06Z risk from the SPC has an enhanced risk
from Liberal to Medicine Lodge and a slight risk along highway
50.

Tonight as the thunderstorms grow upscale along the front the
severe risk should be primarily downburst winds 60 mph or
greater as the storms cold pool. The best upper forcing should
reach along the Kansas-Oklahoma border through 03Z. Best
thermodynamics and shear combination will be concentrated for
areas along and south of highway 50 and moreso in northwest
Oklahoma and the Texas panhandle. Storms should start to subside
after 06Z as the energy gets used up and a 1015 mb high expands
through northeast Colorado and northwest Kansas.

Thursday should be mainly dry across most of southwest Kansas
with the exception of the counties along the Oklahoma border.
The longwave 500 mb trough and 700 mb shortwave should move into
the southern plains and the frontal boundary will extend from
around Lubbock to Wichita. Most of the thunderstorms should stay
in Oklahoma and Texas but we could see a passing storm cross the
border in the afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 228 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

Friday through Sunday EPS and GEFS ensembles have a weak ridge
building into the central and southern plains and 850 mb
temperatures will warm to 20 (C) or above. Highs should reach
into the 80s and low 90s. Saturday will have a weak cold front
moving through western Kansas but with the main forcing mainly
in the northern plains so far it should be a dry passage.

Monday into Tuesday the upper level pattern shifts and a trough
will enter into the southwest CONUS and move into the central
plains by late Monday into Tuesday. POPs at this point are low
(20-30%) and concentrated mainly in our northern zones. This
will be the next chance of rain on the horizon.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1132 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

North winds at 10-14 kts can be expected this afternoon at KLBL,
KGCK and KDDC in the wake of a weak cold front, with lighter
north winds at KHYS. There is a small chance that thunderstorms
moving eastward from the high plains could affect KLBL between
01 and 03z.


&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Tatro
LONG TERM...Tatro
AVIATION...Finch