064
FXUS63 KDDC 150705
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
205 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe weather risk today mainly along and south of highway 50
  with the greatest risk near the Oklahoma border

- Trending warmer and drier for the weekend.


&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

KDDC radar at 06Z has a band of dying showers and storms mainly
from St. John to Ness City and area to the north and east of
that line...storms will continue to depart out of the DDC CWA
before sunrise. 06Z observations and upper air analysis shows a
passing shortwave in association with the storms in Kansas with
another longwave trough from the northern plains to Arizona. A
1009 mb high is building in western Kansas in response to the
subsidence with the departing storms and a cold front is
entering into far northwest Kansas.

Throughout today we should have a mix of sun and clouds with
the cold front passing through much of southwest Kansas by late
afternoon and stalling out in the Texas panhandle through
northwest Oklahoma and south central Kansas. Thunderstorms will
start to develop as we destabilize in the late afternoon in the
vicinity of the front and an approaching shortwave enters into
southeast Colorado. 06Z risk from the SPC has an enhanced risk
from Liberal to Medicine Lodge and a slight risk along highway
50.

Tonight as the thunderstorms grow upscale along the front the
severe risk should be primarily downburst winds 60 mph or
greater as the storms cold pool. The best upper forcing should
reach along the Kansas-Oklahoma border through 03Z. Best
thermodynamics and shear combination will be concentrated for
areas along and south of highway 50 and moreso in northwest
Oklahoma and the Texas panhandle. Storms should start to subside
after 06Z as the energy gets used up and a 1015 mb high expands
through northeast Colorado and northwest Kansas.

Thursday should be mainly dry across most of southwest Kansas
with the exception of the counties along the Oklahoma border.
The longwave 500 mb trough and 700 mb shortwave should move into
the southern plains and the frontal boundary will extend from
around Lubbock to Wichita. Most of the thunderstorms should stay
in Oklahoma and Texas but we could see a passing storm cross the
border in the afternoon.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Drier weather can be expected starting Thursday and persisting
through at least Sunday as weak upper level ridging over the
Rockies slowly progresses eastward. The warmest temperatures of
the year are forecast for Saturday. Just how warm it gets
depends on the speed of a weak cold front due to arrive during
the day. There may be a narrow zone of downslope flow and heat
right ahead of the front where mid 90s are possible for
locations along the Oklahoma state line. But if the front is
faster than currently depicted by the various model ensemble
means, then highs would only be in the mid 80s (I-70) to lower
90s( Oklahoma state line). Given that any upper level troughing
will be over the northern plains, thunderstorms are not
expected along this front.

Upper level troughing is advertised to develop across the
western United States by early next week, resulting in lee
troughing and a return of rich low level moisture into central
Kansas. However, until sufficient forcing mechanisms for ascent
arrive over the plains, any instability that develops across
the plains will not be realized in the form of thunderstorms,
but rather the low level moisture would be trapped beneath a mid
level "lid" or capping inversion. Very warm to hot weather will
likely return for Monday. The earliest chance of thunderstorms
is Monday when the upper level troughing edges closer to the
plains. However, even if t-storms occur, the precipitation would
be isolated to scattered as opposed to a general rain.
Probabilistically, The various ensemble means only indicate 10%
chances or less of .5" or more of rain early next week.

Temperatures could soar into the upper 90s Monday across
southwest Kansas, which slightly cooler but humid conditions
farther east in central Kansas. It is too early to speculate
about isolated t-storm chances; but needless to say, given the
extreme instability that could be in place over central Kansas,
if isolated storms develop they would be severe. Next week we
will be entering the stormiest time of year climatologically for
central and southwest Kansas, with the last ten days of May
being the peak of the high-end severe weather season. In some
years this peak can extend well into June.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1159 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Scattered storms will move between DDC and HYS from 06-09Z. This
could lead to brief MVFR flight category mainly for HYS. During
the day we should have VFR flight category for all terminals.
After 21Z we could see some isolated storms develop along a
frontal boundary from LBL to DCC to HYS. More widespread storms
will develop after 03Z mainly south of highway 50 and would
impact LBL the most. These storms could contain brief gusty
winds over 50 kts.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Tatro
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Tatro