Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 181700

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
100 PM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017

Issued at 1023 AM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017

Strong surface ridge axis is now well east of Michigan...extending
from Quebec thru New York to the Mid Atlantic Coast. Strong area
of low pressure is centered over Central Manitoba...with a
trailing cold front thru Minnesota and into the Central Plains
states. Michigan remains in between these two systems within a
tightening low level pressure gradient. Low levels are gradually
beginning to mix as the day heats up...resulting in increasingly
gusty S/SW winds across our region. Winds will continue to
strengthen as we head thru the afternoon and into early evening...
with the strongest winds likely over Eastern Upper Michigan and
along all of our Lake Michigan shoreline areas. Expect winds will
occasionally gust to 30 to 40 mph within these areas...especially
during late afternoon/early evening. Strengthening southerly flow/WAA
will boost afternoon high temps into the mid 60s to near 70 degrees.


.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 333 AM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017

High impact weather potential: None. Just pretty gusty.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:

Early this morning, a potent shortwave trough was trying to close
off as it pushes into central Canada, as well as it`s associated
deepening sfc low. A resurgence of warmer air was blasting north
through Canada ahead of the system, while a tightening pressure
gradient was being seen pressing eastward ahead of the system and
down through the western Great Lakes. Winds were increasing above
the sfc in nrn Michigan, keeping the BL from being completely
decoupled, despite a pretty dry atmosphere around 0.50" to 0.60"
PWAT and clear skies. As a result, temperature falls were definitely
slowing. Readings were in the upper 30s to lower 40s in eastern low
lying areas, and in the middle 40s to middle 50s elsewhere.

The central Canada upper/sfc lows will track eastward through Canada
today and across Ontario tonight. The pressure gradient will continue
to tighten through this evening, with gusty SW conditions likely
developing pretty quickly by late morning. Strongest gusts are
likely come later this afternoon as we tap into 30 to 40 knots at
the top of a shallow inversion around 925mb. This will lead to 35 to
45 mph SW gusts, strongest probably coming in off lingering overlake
instability from Lake Michigan into eastern upper/far NW lower.
Doubt the 45 mph (Advisory level) gusts will be widespread, so no
advisory issued. The evening will be quite gusty still too, until the
gradient weakens overnight ahead of a dry cold front that may bring
a fairly brief period of strato cu. Air mass just way too dry for

Highs in the middle to upper 60s with some lower 70s in downsloping
regimes of NE lower. Lows tonight in the 45 to 50F range most areas
as there will still be some wind.


.SHORT TERM...(Thursday through Friday)
Issued at 333 AM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017

...A bit cooler Thursday, then warming up Friday...

High Impact Weather Potential...None.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...A cold front will be exiting our
southeastern counties Thursday morning, ushering in a cooler airmass
that will stick around only briefly. Behind the front, low clouds
over northern Lower will quickly clear out by mid to late morning as
the low levels dry out, with only some passing thin cirrus the rest
of the day. Highs Thursday will range from the upper 50s north to
mid 60s south...a bit cooler than Wednesday but still above normal
for this time of year.

Mostly clear skies and diminishing winds Thursday night will lead to
efficient radiational cooling with lows dipping into the upper 30s
inland to mid 40s near the lakes. Ridging at the surface and aloft
over the Upper Great Lakes late Thursday into Friday will lead to
continued dry weather on Friday and also kick off a warmup to close
out the week. Much of northern Lower likely to reach the low 70s on
Friday. Somewhat breezy southerly flow expected with a respectable
pressure gradient over the region.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 333 AM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017

High Impact Weather Potential...Minimal.

Weather pattern will become more active heading into the weekend as
an approaching potent shortwave trough makes its way across the
nation`s midsection and nudges the overhead ridging farther
downstream. This approaching trough will push a sharp cold front
through the region sometime late Saturday night into Sunday. Models
show a ribbon of substantial moisture for late October out ahead of
the front with potential for a relatively narrow band of showers
along the front. Marginal elevated instability could perhaps support
a rumble of thunder or two Saturday night near Lake Michigan. An
incoming clipper-type system on Monday will lead to deeper upper
troughing over the Upper Great Lakes heading into mid-week, as well
as a significantly colder airmass. Will likely see some lake effect
processes develop as a result, and forecast soundings are looking
supportive for perhaps the first snowflakes of the season in some


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 100 PM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017

Surface winds will gradually strengthen this afternoon and into
this evening ahead of an approaching cold front. S/SW winds will
gust to 25 to 35 kts...with LLWS developing between 00Z and 06Z
and winds just off the deck further strengthen just ahead of the
front. Winds will shift to the west behind the front...and will
diminish to 10 to 20 kts. Front itself will come thru dry...with
VFR conditions holding at all TAF sites thru the 24 hr forecast


Issued at 333 AM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017

A tightening pressure gradient will occur through this evening as
deep low pressure tracks through Canada. Winds will increase to
gales later today and this evening in Lake Michigan and Whitefish
Bay until an approaching cold front later tonight relaxes the
gradient some. Still somewhat unsure about Lake Huron gales, and
have kept them in that high end advisory category. Low end gales are
certainly not out of the question there. The cold front will be dry,
no rain as the atmosphere is still quite dry. Winds will weaken
further into Thursday, but a handful of advisories may still be
needed. More wind expected at the end of the work week and into
Saturday with yet another low pressure in Canada. Advisories


LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 5 PM EDT Thursday for LHZ345>348.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 AM EDT Thursday for LHZ349.
LM...GALE WARNING until midnight EDT tonight for LMZ323-341-342-
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 5 PM EDT Thursday for LSZ322.
     GALE WARNING until midnight EDT tonight for LSZ321.


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