


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
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467 FXUS63 KAPX 131049 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 649 AM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Hazy skies and dry weather Today - Gradual warming trend through mid week - Next chances for rain arrive Wednesday && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 311 AM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Current satellite and radar shows most showers have moved out of northern MI this morning. Some clouds are lingering over eastern upper, however skies over northern lower are becoming mostly clear. Calm winds and lingering moisture will allow mist and some areas of fog to form this morning. Smoke from wildfires over western CAN will move over MI today. A post frontal environment will bring the smoke and haze down to the surface. Surface observations in WI/MN showed visibilities down to 2 SM due to haze yesterday. Due to this there is an Air Quality Alert for all of MI today. Temperatures will be in the high 70s to mid 80s today with west to southwest winds of 10 mph and occasional gusts up to 15 mph. Lows tonight will dip into the 50s for most locations. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 311 AM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025 A trailing frontal boundary will attempt to move over northern MI Monday, however building upper ridging and dry southwesterlies will overcome this attempt - resulting in partly cloudy skies at best. Temperatuers will be on the climb early this week, reaching into the high 80s and low 90s by Tuesday. A weak, convective driven, upper wave will advect deep gulf moisture up towards the Great Lakes region mid week. This moisture will meet up with a shortwave rotating through a broad upper trough over much of CAN and the northern North American continent mid week. A quasi- stationary W/E front will likely be draped over the Great Lakes somewhere as a surface high tracks east over Ontario CAN and battles with southwesterlies. If all of these features align, this could set up repeated rounds of heavy rain along that boundary (mean ensemble PWAT is > 1.5") Wednesday into Thursday. The question is 1) if these features will align and 2) if they will align over northern MI. Weaker confidence exists in the convective waves path, as things can change quickly and possibly move that to the west or east of MI. If that is the case, deep moisture will still return to MI with the shortwave rotating through the broad upper trough - but the window for repeated rounds of rain will be shortened. For now, we can say (with confidence) that widespread clouds and rain will return to the area mid week. There is large disagreement on the forecast for the end of the work week and into the weekend. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... Issued at 645 AM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Another hour or two of BR/FG and any associated lower CIGs, then VFR CIGs through today. Main question throughout today will be the impact of the wildfire smoke overhead. Based on upstream observations from yesterday, VIS reductions seem plausible, with MVFR VSBYs mentioned at terminals. This will have to be monitored and fine tuned. Otherwise, precipitation free weather through the period with westerly winds today gusting 15 to 20KTs at times. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Air Quality Alert until noon EDT Monday for MIZ016>018-020>036- 041-042-086>088-095>099. MARINE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...ELD LONG TERM...ELD AVIATION...JLD