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000
FXUS63 KAPX 060402
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1102 PM EST THU DEC 5 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST THU DEC 5 2013

MUCH COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES RIGHT
ON THROUGH SATURDAY...SETTING UP INCREASING CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...THOUGH ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIMITED AS
THE AIR IS QUITE DRY. BETTER CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW WILL
BE FOUND LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SNEAKS THROUGH THE REGION. THAT SYSTEM WILL USHER IN EVEN COLDER AIR
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING
LAKE SNOWS.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1100 PM EST THU DEC 5 2013

WESTERLY FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE
IN INTENSITY LATE THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING OVER-LAKE
INSTABILITY IN ONGOING CAA. RATHER DRY AIRMASS OVERHEAD AND LOW
INVERSION HEIGHTS (3-4 KFT) ARE SIGNIFICANTLY LIMITING INTENSITY
TO LIGHT SNOW. LITTLE WILL CHANGE AS WE HEAD INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THUS...EXPECT SCT/NMRS LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN THE
RULE FOR THE NW HALF OF NRN LWR MICHIGAN AND FOR FAR NRN CHIPPEWA
COUNTY. ACCUMULATIONS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...UNDER AN INCH THRU
DAYBREAK.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 707 PM EST THU DEC 5 2013

KAPX 88D BASE REF LOOP HAS SHOWN A SLOW BUT STEADY INCREASE IN
VERY WEAK RETURNS OVER FAR NRN LWR MICHIGAN ALONG AND NORTH OF
M-32 DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. ONGOING CAA CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
ACTIVATE THE LAKES...BUT AIRMASS OVERHEAD IS STILL RATHER DRY AND
INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE LOW (AROUND 3-4 KFT). EXPECT THIS SLOW
INCREASE IN RADAR RETURNS/LAKE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THRU THE
NIGHT...TARGETING FAR NW LWR MICHIGAN AND EVENTUALLY FAR NRN
CHIPPEWA COUNTY FOR THE MOST PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS. STILL...DRY
AIRMASS AND LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL LIMIT ANY NEW SNOW AMOUNTS
TO UNDER AN INCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST THU DEC 5 2013

THE PLAINS STORM SYSTEM WHICH MOVED OVER THE WESTERN LAKES EARLIER...
HAS LIFTED INTO JAMES BAY AND WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH
FRIDAY. AT UPPER LEVELS...THE 500MB BROAD UPPER TROUGH WHICH SETTLED
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST INTO THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE CENTERED AROUND LAKE SNOW...WINDS AND
TEMPERATURES.

EXPECT LAKE INDUCED SNOWS TO BE LIMITED IN BOTH AREAL COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY TONIGHT AND MOST OF FRIDAY...AS SOUTHWEST WINDS DIMINISH
AND TREND WESTERLY THIS EVENING. WEST WINDS TONIGHT WILL SLOWLY
TREND MORE NORTHWEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...
LAKE SNOWS WILL BE HINDERED INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON BY LIMITED
MOISTURE...SHALLOW INVERSION LAYERS AND LIMITED FETCH. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERSIONS OF 3K FT OR LESS WITH MSTR GENERALLY
TRAPPED BELOW THE -10C ISOTHERM THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHILE MID
LVL MSTR (850/500MB RH) REMAINS BETWEEN 30 AND 40 PCT LIMITING ICE
CRYSTAL SEEDING FROM ALOFT. HOWEVER...LAKE SNOWS BECOME MORE
IMPRESSIVE BTWN 18Z AND 00Z FRIDAY...AS LOW LVL MSTR BEGINS TO
INCREASE TO BETWEEN -10C AND -15C ISOTHERM WHILE WINDS TREND MORE
NORTHWEST ALLOWING FOR SOME LAKE SUPERIOR PRE CONDITIONING. OVERALL
WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT TREND OF SOUTHWEST FLOW LAKE SNOW ALONG
THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE AND OVR ERN UPPER WITH THE MOST PERSISTENT
BANDS TONIGHT AROUND TVC...CHARLEVOIX AND PETOSKEY. LAKE SNOWS WILL
BECOME MORE MULTI BANDED AND WIDESPREAD ACRS NORTHWEST LOWER FRIDAY
AS WINDS TURN WEST. THOUGH EXPECT UNDER ONE INCH SNOWFALL TONIGHT
THOUGH FRIDAY FOR ANY LOCATION ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER.

OTHERWISE...FOR WINDS AND TEMPS...HIGH PRESSURE OVR THE NRN PLAINS AND
UPPER MIDWEST WILL PUSH INTO THE WRN LAKES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...
SLOWLY EASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. CURRENT WIND GUST AROUND 30MPH (GUSTS TO 40 MPH
ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE) WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING
GENERALLY UNDER 20 MPH AND LINGER INTO FRIDAY. EXPECT COOL HIGH
TEMPS FRIDAY AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO BETWEEN -14C TO -17C. HIGH TEMPS
OVER NRN MIN AND WRN ONTARIO STRUGGLED INTO THE 20S WITH THIS 850MB
AIR MASS PRESENT...THEREFORE WILL MENTION AFTN HIGHS IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S FRIDAY ACRS THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST THU DEC 5 2013

RECENT TRENDS...BACK TO THE COLD AFTER A ONE DAY REPRIEVE...6-9F
BELOW NORMAL PAST SEVEN DAYS...OVERALL FOR NOVEMBER 1-3F BELOW
NORMAL THOUGH RELATIVELY CHILLY LAST WEEK OF THE MONTH.  MORE RECENT
PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN FOCUSED OVER NORTHERN LOWER (AIDED BY LAKE
EFFECT)...AFTER A WET NOVEMBER (FIRST/SECOND/THIRD WETTEST NOVEMBERS
AT TVC/GLR/ANJ RESPECTIVELY)...WHICH FOLLOWED A WET OCTOBER (AND
WETTEST FALL ON RECORD AT TVC/ANJ) WHICH HAS BEEN KEEPING THE RIVERS
RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL AND SOIL MOISTURE UNUSUALLY HIGH (POSSIBLE
IMPLICATIONS FOR SPRING FLOODING (BAD) AND FUTURE GREAT LAKE WATER
LEVELS (GOOD)?).

SYNOPSIS...DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH SETTLING ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
AMERICA AND SENDING THE WESTERN HALF OF THE NATION INTO THE DEEP
FREEZE.  STRONG -EPO RIDGING INTO ALASKA/KAMCHATKA OPENING UP THE
COLD AIR PIPELINE...WITH A 1049MB SURFACE HIGH OVER THE YUKON AND A
BROAD AREA OF SUB-ZERO TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL CANADA
AND SPREADING INTO THE ROCKIES/NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
STRONG COLD ADVECTION SWEEPING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AS STRONG LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS ONTARIO.

THE -EPO TELECONNECTION AND RESULTANT EASTERN PACIFIC BLOCKING WILL
RULE THE ROOST WITH RESPECT TO THE OVERALL PATTERN...MAINTAINING THE
LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER NORTH AMERICA REINFORCED BY SEVERAL SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS WILL RESULT IN AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF COLD WEATHER FOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN...AS COLD AIR MASS IS
PERIODICALLY REINFORCED.  ARCTIC RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS STRENGTHENS
THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH PERSISTENT WEST/NORTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES AND SUB-510DM THICKNESSES REACHING
NORTHERN WISCONSIN/NORTHERN MICHIGAN SATURDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE THEN
EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FOR SUNDAY WHILE UPPER
TROUGH RELOADS OUT WEST...WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMING OUT OF
SIBERIA AND INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES...AND POSSIBLY A PIECE OF
ENERGY COMING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH THAT SPINS
UP LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST/OHIO VALLEY AND LIFTING IT UP
INTO THE REGION IN THE MONDAY TIME FRAME.  IN THE WAKE OF THIS A
COLDER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES
FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  BUT IN THE NEAR TERM FORECAST PROBLEMS
FOR THE WEEKEND WILL DEAL WITH TEMPERATURES AND LAKE CONVECTION
ISSUES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN IMPACTS OF INITIAL WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN SETTING UP FOR SUNDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WEST/NORTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LAKE INDUCED TROUGHING IMPACTING LOW LEVEL FLOW (I.E., TURNING IT
MORE WESTERLY).  850MB TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO DROP BELOW -16C
FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT INCOMING AIR MASS NOT GOING TO HAVE MUCH MOISTURE
WITH IT.

LAKE SUPERIOR:  ANTICIPATE POTENTIAL FOR BEST LAKE EFFECT WILL BE
COMING OFF LAKE SUPERIOR GIVEN LONG FETCH ACROSS THE LAKE AND
POTENTIAL FOR SOME ENHANCED CONVERGENCE IF LAKE INDUCED TROUGH
DEVELOPS.  TARGET AREA WOULD BE IN THE WHITEFISH BAY VICINITY...MOST
LIKELY FAR NORTHWEST CHIPPEWA COUNTY BUT MEAN BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
COULD HAVE JUST ENOUGH NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO PUSH HEAVIER SNOW
TOWARD THE SOO.  ON THE FLIP SIDE...STRONG LAKE INDUCED TROUGH COULD
ALSO BACK NEAR SURFACE WINDS ENOUGH TO PUSH BEST SNOWFALL RATES JUST
OFFSHORE.  ENOUGH MESOSCALE QUESTIONS WILL RESULT IN KEEPING
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL AROUND PARADISE/WHITEFISH POINT FOR NOW...BUT IF A
SNOW BAND CAN REMAIN FOCUSED THEN SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL EXPECTED
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON (1 FOOT+).

LAKE MICHIGAN...SNOW SHOWER POTENTIAL OFF LAKE MICHIGAN LOOKING LESS
IMPRESSIVE AS 290-300 FLOW LACKS A LAKE SUPERIOR CONNECTION TO HELP
OVERCOME OVERALL DRY AIR MASS.  SHORTER RESIDENCE TIME WILL ALSO
LIMIT CBL GROWTH (INVERSION HEIGHTS 825-850MB)...SO WHILE SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD OVERALL AMOUNTS THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE (1-3 INCHES EAST OF
GRAND TRAVERSE BAY).

BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW EXPECTED TO BACK MORE WEST/SOUTHWEST AS SATURDAY
NIGHT PROGRESSES...WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT LAKE SUPERIOR SNOWFALL
GETS PUSHED OFFSHORE...AND LAKE MICHIGAN SNOWFALL GETS PUSHED INTO
FAR NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE TIP OF THE MITT COUNTIES.  HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVERHEAD SUNDAY MORNING ALONG WITH SOME WEAK
SHORT WAVE RIDGING AS FLOW ALOFT BACKS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AS MEAN
TROUGHING SHARPENS OUT WEST.  WARM ADVECTION INCREASES AS WELL WITH
EAST/SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW VEERING AROUND TO SOUTHWEST IN
THE MID/UPPER LEVELS...AND WITH IT WILL COME A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SYNOPTIC SNOW TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.  SUNDAY
HIGHS EXPECTED TO STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOWER-MID 20S...A SOLID 10+
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.

EXTENDED FORECAST (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...WILL WATCH POTENTIAL
SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...WHICH WILL KEEP
SNOW CHANCES GOING INTO MONDAY.  ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE LOW MAY SLIDE
BY TUESDAY...WITH A REINFORCING PUSH OF COLDER AIR THAT COULD BRING
SUB-ZERO TEMPERATURES "HORSESHOEING" AROUND THE WARMER GREAT LAKES
BY MIDWEEK.  A LOT OF HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS (AT BEST)
THROUGH THE MIDWEEK PERIOD...NORMAL HIGHS NEXT WEEK IN THE 30-33F
RANGE. COLD WIND CHILLS ALSO IN THE OFFING IN THE LATER TUESDAY/
WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM EST THU DEC 5 2013

MAINLY MVFR CIGS WILL HANG OVER MUCH OF NRN LWR MICHIGAN THRU
FRIDAY NIGHT AS ONGOING CAA ACTIVATES THE LAKES. WESTERLY FLOW LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND PERSIST
THRU FRIDAY NIGHT...OCCASIONALLY DROPPING VSBYS TO MVFR AND
POSSIBLY IFR. WEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 20 TO 25 KTS THRU THE TAF
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST THU DEC 5 2013

GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS FROM EARLIER TODAY HAVE SLOWLY DIMINISHED AND
TRENDED WEST OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES...AS THE STORM SYSTEM WHICH
MOVED INTO WISCONSIN EARLIER CONTINUES TO EXIT NORTHEAST TOWARD
JAMES BAY. WINDS OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND NRN WISCONSIN HAVE
ALREADY DIMINISHED BELOW GALE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. EXPECT
GENERALLY BREEZY WEST FLOW TO CONTINUE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS HIGH
PRESSURE ADVANCES ACROSS THE SRN GREAT LAKES WHILE THE SFC LOW WOBBLES
NEAR JAMES BAY.

OVERALL EXPECT GALES FORCE WINDS TO DIMINISH TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
TONIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVSY NEEDED THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE
STRAITS.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LHZ345>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MR
SYNOPSIS...LAWRENCE
SHORT TERM...SWR
LONG TERM...JPB
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...SWR