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000
FXUS63 KAPX 240237
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1037 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

A STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZING EAST OF THE ROCKIES...WILL MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES THURSDAY BEFORE EXITING NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC
FRIDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL GENERATE A ROUND OF RAIN AND NEARLY
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY.

SOME SUN AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO
NORTHERN MICHIGAN THIS WEEKEND...AS A LARGE AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES.

ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND CONTINUED COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S...
ARE EXPECTED TO TO BEGIN THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...AS A PLAINS SYSTEM
LIFTS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1036 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

MID-HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM NW-SE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES AS ANTICIPATED WITH THICKER/LOWER CLOUDS EDGING INTO THE SW
COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. NO BIG CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES NUDGING TOWARD MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER THE SW HALF
OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. AGE OLD FORECAST DILEMMA...HOW MUCH OF AN
IMPACT WILL THICKER HIGH CLOUDS HAVE ON TEMPS. THUS FAR...TEMPS
FALLING PRETTY QUICKLY THIS EVENING PARTICULARLY IN PARTS OF NE
LOWER (33 AT OSCODA AS OF 10 AM)...A LITTLE SLOWER OVER THE
WESTERN COUNTIES. SO CLOUDS ARE HAVING AT LEAST SOME IMPACT.
STILL...LOOKS LIKE TEMPS WILL BE ABLE TO EASILY DROP INTO THE MID
20S (EAST) TO LOWER 30S OVERNIGHT. SOME COLD SPOT IN NE LOWER
MIGHT GET INTO THE TEENS...BUT DO NT THINK THAT WILL BE THE NORM.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 746 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

NO BIG CHANGES THIS HOUR. THICKER HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM
NW-SE INTO NR MICHIGAN...THICKEST ACROSS THE SW COUNTIES. BIGGEST
FORECAST PROBLEM TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS. VERY LOW AFC DEW POINTS AND
WINDS GOING CALM CERTAINLY SUGGEST TEMPS MAY TANK QUICKLY THIS
EVENING BUT THICKENING/LOWERING HIGH-MID CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HAVE
SOME IMPACT ON THE TEMP FALL...ESPECIALLY LATER ON. GIVEN CURRENT
AFC DEW POINTS...LOWS DIPPING INTO THE TEENS FOR SOME SPOTS
CERTAINLY WITHIN THE ENVELOPE OF POSSIBILITIES. POSSIBLY OVER THE
E/NE PARTS OF THE CWA WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE THINNER. BUT RIGHT
NOW BELIEVE THAT MOST AREAS WILL END UP IN THE 20S PER GOING
FORECAST. WILL SEE HOW IT GOES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

...A TOUCH CHILLY TONIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

LARGER SCALE OVERVIEW: CLASSIC SET-UP FOR THE SUN-FILLED WEATHER WE
ARE EXPERIENCING...WITH ELONGATED SURFACE HIGH STRETCHED NORTH/SOUTH
ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES JUST DOWNSTREAM OF SHARP MID LEVEL RIDGING
OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DEEP LAYER DRY WEDGE
OVERHEAD...EVIDENT BY 0.14 PW AT VALUES ON LOCAL 12Z SOUNDING AND
CURRENT SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSION OF 40 DEGREES OR MORE (PLENTY OF
SINGLE DIGIT DEW POINTS). INITIAL STAGES OF TOP-DOWN SATURATION WELL
AHEAD OF INTER MOUNTAIN WEST TROUGHING HELPING DRIVE SOME THIN CIRRUS
BACK ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.
PATTERN...AT LEAST FOR THE TIME BEING...REMAINS PROGRESSIVE...
SUGGESTING OUR BOUT OF DRY WEATHER WILL SOON BE A THING OF THE PAST
(SEE LONG TERM SECTION BELOW FOR ALL THOSE GOOD DETAILS).

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: MINIMAL. CLOUD AND TEMPERATURE
TRENDS ABOUT THE ONLY CHALLENGES TONIGHT.

DETAILS: HIGH CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY BE ON THE INCREASE...WITH DEEP DRY
LAYER THROUGH THE MID AND LOWER LEVEL OF THE AIRMASS PREVENTING ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY UNTIL THURSDAY. CURRENT VERY DRY AIRMASS AND
EXPECTED QUICK DECOUPLING SHOULD LEAD TO AN EXCELLENT NOCTURNAL
TEMPERATURE RESPONSE. OVERNIGHT CIRRUS MIGHT TEMPER THIS SOME...BUT
GIVEN CURRENT DEW POINTS...FAVOR THE COLDER END OF THE GUIDANCE
SPECTRUM...WHICH FEATURES LOWS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S ACROSS
INTERIOR REGIONS...JUST A FEW DEGREES "WARMER" NEAR THE BIG WATERS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

...HEADLINE...RAIN HEADED FOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN LATE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION
EVENT LATE THURSDAY THROUGH LATE FRIDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE IN NEXT
WEEKS WEATHER.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER BC CANADA WITH
TROUGH ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY
AND INTO THE NORTHEAST US SUNDAY. AS ENERGY DROPS OVER THE ROCKIES
EXPECT SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
TRACK NORTHEAST TOWARDS MICHIGAN.  UPPER LOW AND STRONG PACIFIC JET
ENERGY CURRENTLY WEST OF ALASKA IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO CALIFORNIA
SATURDAY AND CLOSE OFF SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL US
SUNDAY...MEANDERING SLOWLY EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. PATTERN SHOULD SLOW
NEXT WEEK AS SYSTEM TRIES MOVING NORTHEAST IN NORTH ATLANTIC BLOCK.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS (NEAR TERM): PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR
THURSDAY AND PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.

NEAR TERM (THURSDAY TH RU SATURDAY): INCREASING RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF
APPROACHING SURFACE LOW WILL PULL GULF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES UNTIL LOW MOVES THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. WARM
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LIFTS NE THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY
BUT MAY BE HARD TO GET PRECIPITATION WITH VERY DRY AIR CURRENTLY
OVER THE REGION. DEW POINTS CURRENTLY RUNNING IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE TOWARD EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AFC LOW PASSES
THROUGH MICHIGAN WITH STRONG VORTICITY ADVECTION ALOFT AS SHOWN ON
PVC15 SURFACES. CONVECTION FORMING OVER MO/TN COULD HINDER NORTHWARD
TRANSPORT OF MOISTURE BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE TO GET
SOME RAIN. THERMAL PROFILES SHOW LATE NIGHT PRECIPITATION COULD MIX
WITH SNOW OVER EASTERN UPPER AND MAYBE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHERN
LOWER. MOISTURE IS QUICKLY PULLED EAST EARLY FRIDAY WITH THE AFC LOW
BUT UPPER LOW CROSSES NORTHERN MICHIGAN AND COULD BE SOME
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY LATE FRIDAY ACROSS EASTERN UPPER. THERMAL
PROFILES SHOW LATE FRIDAY PRECIPITATION AS SOME SNOW OR A MIX.

MEDIUM RANGE (SATURDAY AND SUNDAY): WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET SOME
NICE WEATHER IN BETWEEN THE TWO STORM SYSTEMS THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES QUICKLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

OUTLOOK (TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY): CONFIDENCE LOW ON THIS PART
OF THE FORECAST WITH NEXT SURFACE LOW MOVING FROM CENTRAL US INTO
MICHIGAN/OHIO VALLEY. TRACK UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME BUT COLD AIR IN
PLACE NORTH OF THE LOW COULD SET UP MESSY WEATHER AGAIN EARLY TO MID
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TADS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1036 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

STRAIGHT FR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS UPSTREAM SYSTEM IN
THE PLAINS TODAY SLOWLY WORKS IT/S WAY INTO THE REGION. UPSTREAM
SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN IN WISCONSIN WILL GRAZE NW LOWER MICHIGAN
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY...BUT AGAIN...WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING
FR.

THURSDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SWING UP INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND BRING A BIGGER PUSH OF DEEPER
MOISTURE/LOWERING CLOUDS...AND FINALLY SOME LIGHT RAIN MOVING
INTO THE TV/MB AREA THURSDAY EVENING. BUT AGAIN...CIGS/VSBYS
REMAIN FR.

WINDS GO CALM TONIGHT BUT PICK BACK UP THURSDAY MORNING FROM THE
SE. SOME GUSTINESS WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY AT
TV/MB AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM GETS CLOSER...WITH SOME GUSTS
INTO THE 20-25 KNOT RANGE POSSIBLE. AFC WINDS WEAKEN AGAIN
THURSDAY EVENING. BUT DEVELOPING INVERSION ALOFT AND STRENGTHENING
WINDS MAY BRING A PERIOD OF LAWS TO THE TERMINAL SITES THURSDAY
NIGHT...PARTICULARLY AT TV/MB WHERE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
LOCATED.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

WINDS EXPECTED TO GO LIGHT OVERNIGHT...BACKING MORE EASTERLY
WHILE DOING SO. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS TOMORROW AHEAD OF
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE. WINDS WILL INCREASE IN SPEED...ALTHOUGH
BOTH SPEED AND WAVE ACTION SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SAC CRITERIA.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ADAM
SYNOPSIS...SWR
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...MSB