129
FXUS63 KAPX 160206
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1006 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy frost over inland Northern Lower Michigan late tonight

- Warm through early next week with occasional rain chances

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1005 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024

Low level ridge axis extends from James Bay thru Eastern Ontario
into much of the Western Great Lakes region late this evening.
Skies are clear across our entire CWA...and will remain so thru
the overnight hours. Clear skies and light winds will allow
temps to drop into the mid 30s to lower 40s...with some patchy
frost expected across some interior sections of Northern Lower
Michigan.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 244 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Low amplitude shortwave ridging sliding
across northern Michigan through tonight, sandwiched between eastern
CONUS troughing and upstream troughing over the upper Midwest.  At
the surface, high pressure continues to nose into the region from
the north.  Upstream trough approaches the western Great Lakes by
later Thursday, introducing shower chances.

Forecast Details: Tranquil conditions expected across northern
Michigan through tonight with just a few high clouds at times.
Likely also still some low concentrations of Canadian wildfire
smoke from time to time, although the heaviest concentrations of
this remain west of us. Another night with decent radiational
cooling leading to large diurnal temperature ranges, with colder
locations in the lower to mid 30s with patchy frost. Upstream
trough approaches on Thursday with increasing afternoon clouds
and a few showers possible in Lake Michigan coastal areas by
early evening with increasing PWAT`s and mid level isentropic
upglide. Widespread highs in the 70s, with 60s near the coasts
and over eastern Upper.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 244 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024

Pattern/synopsis: A fairly progressive weather pattern through the
long term. Possible upper level disturbances moving through the flow
will bring occasional rain chances. Temperatures are expected to
remain above normal.

Forecast: Energy emerging out of the Plains will likely bring a line
of showers across the region Thursday night with rain chances
lingering into Friday. Embedded non-severe thunderstorms are
possible as well. The timing/strength of individual waves this
weekend is a bit uncertain but at this point am not expecting a
whole lot of shower activity. The best chance of any rain appears to
be Sunday with Saturday likely to remain rain free (the wetter GFS
looks overdone with phasing of northern and southern stream energy
unlikely). Even Sunday could be overdone with a weakening/moisture
starved northern stream wave moving through. So overall, a
comfortably warm weekend with small shower (and perhaps
thunderstorm) chances in order. Mainly weak waves possibly moving
through the flow early next week present more rain chances but again
the timing/extent of which remain uncertain at this time.
Temperatures are expected to be several degrees above normal this
weekend into early next week. Perhaps not quite as warm heading into
the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 700 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024

Pronounced low level ridge axis currently extending thru Ontario
and much of the Western Great Lakes will slowly slide eastward
into the Eastern Great Lakes and New England tonight and
Thursday. Meanwhile...an upstream cold front will push into the
Upper Mississippi Valley tonight and into the Western Great
Lakes on Thursday. Skies will remain mostly clear tonight...
then mid and high clouds will gradually increase from west to
east on Thursday well in advance of that cold front. Still
appears increasing precip chances along and ahead of this front
will hold off until after 00Z Friday. In the meantime...solid
VFR conditions will hold over Northern Michigan for the next 24
hours. Light/variable surface winds tonight will become E/SE at
around 10 kts on Thursday...with some lake breeze development
expected near the lakeshores.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MLR
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...AJS
AVIATION...MLR